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2019 Senatorial Election: A Testament That Power is Transient

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By Omoshola Deji

Nigeria’s huge population and profitable politics make the struggle to occupy public office intense. Many do wrongs to have their way and the incumbents hardly retire. After spending their constitutionally allowed two terms, some power obsessed governors simply retire into the Senate, where members are allowed to spend limitless term.

Governors use the Senate as a safe haven to sustain their political relevance. Not that alone, they handpick a successor and enthrone themselves as political godfathers. The just concluded national assembly elections kick-start the fading of some of these tin-gods into oblivion. The feared giants fell like Goliath. Colossus who were before this time seen as undefeatable were defeated. This piece examines the factors and circumstance that brought about their defeat.

Nigeria runs a bi-cameral legislative house comprising the Senate which has 109 members and a 360 member House of Representatives. The rigor of assessing the circumstances that led to the defeat of political heavyweights in both chambers confined the writer to focus on the Senate.

The Nigerian Senate is the meeting point of political bigwigs. The high number of prominent persons that contested the senatorial election further constricted the writer to focus on a particular class of contestant: the serving and former Governors who lose.

Bukola Saraki

One of the most shocking defeat in the last senatorial election is that of Bukola Saraki. The ex-Governor of Kwara State and Senate President lost in his bid to get reelected into the Senate. The Saraki Empire no one dare confront in the past is being demystified by hurricane ‘o to ge’. On the whole, ‘O to ge’ meaning ‘enough is enough’ is a movement against the reign of Saraki’s political dynasty in Kwara State.

The ‘o to ge’ mantra’s momentum is far-reaching and widely embraced. Kwara South’s longstanding hostility against Saraki made ‘o to ge’ swiftly gain ground in the region. Kwara North’s devastating infrastructure has made the population anti-Saraki, so they quickly embraced the ‘o to ge’ revolution. The hostility between Buhari and Saraki earned ‘o to ge’ patronage, particularly in the outskirt, close to Niger State, where the residents are sympathetic and loyal to the core north. ‘O to ge’ is also widely embraced in Saraki’s stronghold: the North-central, especially Ilorin. The movement keeps gaining momentum as the APC stalwarts have faced Saraki’s disciples’ violence for violence, blood for blood, and money for money.

After ruling Kwara State for eight years and successfully installing his stooge, Governor Abdulfatah Ahmed, Saraki became a godfather and his words became law. Ahmed’s government is widely seen as a continuity of Saraki’s rule. They thus share the accolades of success and the criticisms of either’s shortcomings. Some of the Saraki/Ahmed’s shortcomings that made the ‘o to ge’ revolution successful includes the backlog of unpaid salaries to civil servants and pensioners; Saraki’s alleged complicit in the Offa robbery fiasco; his corruption tainted reputation and trial; the lack of federal support owing to Saraki and Ahmed’s defection from APC to the PDP; and the elites, ex-loyalists and masses revolt against Saraki’s highhandedness, despotism and dynasty.

Many consider Saraki’s defeat as the manifestation of the law of karma, having betrayed his father to seize the political leadership of Kwara State. He leveraged on his father, Olusola Saraki’s extensive support base and political structure to emerge Governor, but later ousted him and enthrone himself as the godfather of Kwara politics. Against his father’s wish, Saraki installed Abdulfatah Ahmed as governor, instead of his sister Gbemisola Saraki. Rumors have it that Saraki’s father cursed him before passing away that he would be disgraced out of politics.

Oh power! Saraki is a big vessel, yet thou hast filled it and shown your transience! The mighty Bukola Saraki has fallen and may never rise again. APC’s Ibrahim Oloriegbe defeated him with 54,814 votes. With Buhari’s reelection, even if Saraki had won, he would have been an ordinary member as the APC would do all to ensure he doesn’t head the 9th Senate.

Hurricane ‘o to ge’ is speedily pulling down Saraki’s dynasty and changing the dynamics of politics in Kwara state. His fast-fall will almost certainly make his choice successor and PDP candidate, Rasak Atunwa, lose the forthcoming gubernatorial election. The encouraging aftereffect of Saraki’s lose is that Nigerians have gained more confidence that they can collapse the dynasty of political godfathers with their votes.

APC fanatics and Bola Tinubu’s apologists’ needs to format their reasoning. It is irrational to abuse the political godfather in Kwara and praise the one in Lagos. The fall of Saraki is a pointer that Tinubu’s fall is not impossible and near. A battle foretold does not kill a wise lame! It’s just a matter of time before Lagosians too shall declare that enough is enough. Saraki’s lose is a big lesson to Tinubu that power is transient and no one reigns forever.

Godswill Akpabio

Former Akwa-Ibom State Governor, Godswill Akpabio suffered an unexpected (but deserved) defeat in the 2019 senatorial election. Akpabio’s lose is not unconnected with his defection from the PDP, the party under which he served as Commissioner and two term Governor. He was later elected Senator in 2015 and became the party’s first Senate Minority Leader despite being a first term lawmaker. The PDP made Akpabio a name, but he defected from the party, accusing her of not rewarding loyalty, apparently because (instead of him) Senate President Bukola Saraki was made the PDP leader when he defected from the APC.

Akpabio ruled like Tsar when he was Governor. He determined who got what and when. He handpicked Udom Emmanuel has his successor and frustrated bigwigs such as Patrick Ekpotu and Nsima Nkere out of the PDP. Akpabio’s bossiness set off a frosty relationship between him and Emmanuel shortly after the latter became Governor. His excesses were unbearable, embarrassing and disrespectful to Emmanuel and his office. Akpabio would at the time make a bold entry into a state event, frolicking with his praise singers, disrupting the program, when the Emmanuel is already seated. The Governor could not tolerate this for long.

The fear of being prosecuted for corruption mainly made Akpabio join the APC. He left PDP for the APC he frustrated Nkere to join and now leading his governorship campaign. Upon defection, Akpabio secured the APC senatorial ticket, boasted he would win by a landslide, but the electorates stopped him. His lose is a testament that no one reigns forever and power is transient. PDP’s Chris Ekpenyong, the then deputy of ex-Governor Victor Attah, defeated Akpabio. The loss was a sweet revenge because Akpabio has not been in good terms with Attah and Ekpenyong, his former principals under whose administration he served as Commissioner.

The ruling APC fooled Akpabio and he fell for it. Confident of winning the North, the APC needed to ensure President Buhari gets a comfortable victory by earning substantial votes in the South-south and South-east, which are PDP strongholds. Upon realizing it would be difficult to win the two regions, APC opt to reduce PDP’s votes by winning over some of her bigwigs. They succeeded in getting Akpabio and Emmanuel Uduaghan, the former Governor of Delta State.

The APC celebrated Akpabio’s defection from the PDP. A special televised rally was organized to welcome him into the party. Akpabio felt happy, honored and was boasting he would bring water out of the rock for the APC. In no distant time, it’ll become clear to Akpabio that the APC only needed him and Uduaghan to destabilize PDP’s stronghold. Now that Buhari has won and they lost their senatorial elections, the APC bigwigs would in a little while frustrated them out of the party.

Akpabio’s name will fade into oblivion, if APC loses the upcoming governorship election in Akwa-Ibom. His unceasing boast of having the capacity to dethrone the incumbent governor has made APC rely strongly on him. The party would ostracize him if Nkere lose. He may be arraigned for corruption as the federal government may withdraw the prosecution amnesty granted to him when he joined the APC. Akpabio lost his senatorial election because the electorates largely sees him as a desperate politician, who because of hunger, sold his birthright for a plate of porridge.

George Akume

Former Governor of Benue State and Senator representing Benue Northwest constituency, George Akume, lost his reelection bid to return to the Senate for the fourth time. PDP’s Orker Jev defeated him with a margin of 42,304 votes.

Akume’s defeat is not unconnected with the lingering supremacy battle between him and Governor Samuel Ortom. The hostility between both heightened when Ortom defected to the PDP over accusations that the APC led federal government is uncommitted to ending the genocidal killings perpetrated by Fulani herdsmen in Benue State. While Ortom was tackling the federal government to live up to the responsibility of ensuring adequate security for his people, Akume was more concerned about remaining in the good books of the federal government. This made him act contrary to his people’s will on many occasions.

Having been in power for twenty uninterrupted years, Akume’s omnipotent boasts made ex-Senate President David Mark and ex-Governor Gabriel Suswam end their political scuffles with Ortom, especially when he joined them in the PDP. Akume vowed to unseat Ortom and reinstate an APC government in the State, but the electorates reward Ortom’s dedication to exterminating their plights and sacked Akume instead.

Akume’s lose is an attestation that, in a democratic system, the strength of the power of the people is more than that of the people in power. The electoral loss of the godfather of Benue politics, despite having federal government’s backing, is a pointer that like life, power is a temporary, transient phenomenon.

Olusegun Mimiko

The former Governor of Ondo State’s loss at the poll is another testament that power is transient. The Zenith Labour Party (ZLP) Ondo Central senatorial candidate – who dropped his presidential ambition to contest for senate – only managed to come third.  He scored 56,624 votes, coming behind APC’s Ayo Alasoadura who garnered 57,828 votes and PDP’s Ayo Akinyelure who won with a total of 66,978 votes.

Mimiko’s awful defeat is a lesson to those in power. Just few years ago, Mimiko was so powerful that he won governorship election twice (in 2009 and 2013) under a relatively unknown and weak platform – the Labour Party (LP). Not many imagined that Mimiko’s electoral value would diminish so fast that he’ll lose an ‘ordinary’ senatorial election after letting go his presidential ambition.

Mimiko’s political worth diminished when he abandoned the LP for the PDP. He sacrificed the LP statewide political structure he built and controlled to join the then PDP led federal government, only to face stiff opposition from the Jimoh Ibrahim led faction in the state. His political structure collapsed after his preferred successor, Eyitato Jegede lost the governorship election to incumbent Governor Rotimi Akeredolu of the APC.

Mimiko had the chance to build the Labour Party into a formidable national one, but he bungled that opportunity because of his insatiable thirst for power. He was PDP at the center, but LP at home. The ex-Governor may never rise politically again. He is not in good form to win future elections, except he defects to the ruling APC or opposition PDP.

Abiola Ajimobi

The Governor of Oyo State, Abiola Ajimobi, has fallen on hard times. The two term incumbent – who broke the jinx of governor’s losing reelection after serving a term – couldn’t win a senatorial poll that only covers one-third of his state. His uncouth orations, anti-masses policies, and the arbitrary use of power largely made him lose the election. Oyo indigenes are cultural people who cherishes humbleness and respectful communications, but Ajimobi is ill-mannered. This shortcoming made the masses revolt against him. Oyo natives, like most Yoruba people, especially those in the hinterlands, cherishes respect than money and gifts, even if they are poor. They are experts at decoding the hidden message in communications and does not take insults lightly.

Ajimobi’s inability to gauge his utterances made him lose the admiration of many. He lost public support when he maliciously demolished Yinka Ayefele’s Fresh FM radio. Despite public outcry, an unremorseful Ajimobi arrogantly called Ayefele “a disabled being”. Ajimobi also said “Ayefele shouldn’t be pitied because he’s a cripple. He’s not the first to be”. The Ajimobi-Ayefele saga was interpreted by the masses as a contest between the powerful and the powerless. The masses rose in defense of their fellow defenseless brethren, Ayefele.

Persons who fail to learn from others mistakes end up facing their misfortunes. Uncouth statements made the late Bola Ige and ex-Governor Alao Akala lose elections in Oyo state in 1983 and 2011. Same has now made Ajimobi lose his senatorial race to PDP’s Kola Balogun. Lest one forgets, the insults Ajimobi rained on protesting LAUTECH students’ remained unforgivable in the minds of their parents and families who voted during his senatorial election.

Moreover, Ajimobi’s insistence on restructuring the Ibadan kingship and chieftaincy traditional laws earned him more foes than friends. Many took the utterance that he once used to send Olubadan’s wife on errands to his girlfriends as a deliberate move to publicly ridicule the revered monarch. This act made Ajimobi’s cup of sin overflow. The much craved opportunity to punish him surfaced when he decides to run for senate and the masses utilized it.

Ajimobi’s vow that he would not contest for public positions after his governorship tenure ends was also vehemently used against him. His refusal to take a bow when the ovation was at its loudest earned him a fall.

Ibrahim Dakwambo

The incumbent Governor of Gombe State and former presidential aspirant of the PDP, Ibrahim Dakwambo lost his Gombe-North senatorial constituency election to Sa’idu Alkali of the APC. Aside underperformance, Dakwambo was largely affected by Buhari’s unparalleled acceptability in the North. Conducting the presidential election simultaneously with that of the national assembly made it difficult for the populous, less educated voters to differentiate between Buhari’s presidential and Dakwambo’s senatorial ballot paper. Alkali defeated Dakwambo by a difference of 64,530 votes.

For an incumbent that won governorship election and reelection in 2011 and 2015 to lose a ‘mere’ senatorial election by such a wide margin is a pointer that Dakwambo has lost public confidence and admiration. He came fifth in the 2018 PDP presidential primaries that produced Atiku Abubakar as candidate. Dakwambo’s appointment as Atiku’s campaign coordinator for the Northeast region yielded no positive results. His appeal to the electorates to vote Atiku as President fell on deaf ears. He couldn’t even deliver his Hassan Manzo ward. Buhari scored 457 votes to defeat Atiku who garnered a meagre 80 votes in the ward.

Dakwambo’s serial defeat is an indication that the mighty has fallen and may just never rise again. Ikkyu’s thought is the best advice for Dakwambo: Like vanishing dew, a passing apparition or sudden flash of lightning – already gone – thus should Dakwambo regard himself.

End Notion and Lesson

The strength of power doesn’t depend on its in perpetuity, but on its transience. The hire and fire power of the voter card makes it a crucial weapon the electorates must use to reward or punish the elected, depending on their performance. Nigerian politicians have an insatiable thirst for power, but are un-thirsty for national development and progress. They do all possible to grab power and once it’s theirs, they do all to hold on to it till death do them part.

The loyalty and patronage power commands fade off like a wisp of smoke when it is lost. Power is not worth gaining or retaining by force as its value is sullied by its transiency. People switch allegiance once power is lost. The deposed godfathers would know they have fallen on hard times in the days ahead. Politicians must act right when in power and beyond because their actions or inactions today is tomorrow’s history. The unborn generations will read it and be told. The defeat of those once regarded as undefeatable at the polls is a testament that no king can reign forever; the mighty (like Saraki) has fallen for new ones to arise.

The Second Part

This piece is the concluding part of a twin piece on the transience of power in which the writer analyzed the issues and outcome of the presidential and senatorial elections. The first part appraised Atiku’s inability to regain control of the country he once managed as the second in command. It dissects why he has been unable to retain the loyalty of the bigwigs he once lord over when he was in power.

Although Atiku did not run as a one term ex-President or incumbent, analyzing the piece around the transiency of power was inexorable based on his former capacity as Vice President: a powerful one that allegedly made his boss, President Obasanjo, kowtow for him before winning reelection. To read the piece, please search this platform or Google “2019 Presidential Poll: Is Atiku’s Defeat a Testament that Power is Transient?”

Omoshola Deji is a political and public affairs analyst. He wrote in via mo******@***oo.com

Modupe Gbadeyanka is a fast-rising journalist with Business Post Nigeria. Her passion for journalism is amazing. She is willing to learn more with a view to becoming one of the best pen-pushers in Nigeria. Her role models are the duo of CNN's Richard Quest and Christiane Amanpour.

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GLO@23: How Billionaire Otunba Mike Adenuga Built a Telecom Empire That Refuses to Sell Out

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Glo at 23 Otunba Mike Adenuga

By Bodex Hungbo

In a corporate world where corporate giants regularly swap boardrooms like trading cards and sell off equity at the first sign of volatility, one legendary tycoon continues to prove that absolute control is the ultimate power move. That man is Otunba Mike Adenuga Jr., the visionary billionaire whose dense belief in indigenous enterprise gave birth to Globacom, the telecom powerhouse affectionately known across the continent as Glo.

As Globacom marks a monumental 23-year milestone, the spotlight shines brightly not only on the company’s extraordinary ascent, but on the enduring legacy of its founder. Adenuga stands as the only Nigerian to establish, nurture, and retain 100% sole ownership of a national telecommunications network; one that has evolved into one of Africa’s most recognisable, resilient, and influential brands.

While rival networks scrambled through endless corporate restructuring, foreign buyouts, hostile takeovers, and high-stakes rebrandings, “The Bull” pulled off what many in international finance considered impossible: holding complete control of Nigeria’s proudest homegrown tech giant for over two decades without surrendering a single inch of authority.

From the very beginning, Adenuga refused to follow the standard playbook written by foreign multinationals. When Globacom officially launched in August 2003, the market was heavily dominated by well-funded international operators who insisted that certain consumer-friendly models were economically impossible in Africa. Sceptics openly declared that a wholly indigenous, single-owner startup could never go toe-to-toe with established global giants.

Adenuga didn’t just compete; he single-handedly revolutionised the entire landscape.

At a time when competitors claimed that charging consumers per second rather than per minute was technically unfeasible, Glo introduced per-second billing on day one. By charging 1 kobo per second, Globacom shattered the status quo overnight, forcing the entire telecom industry to follow suit. That single disruptive move democratised mobile access, saved everyday Nigerians billions of Naira, and transformed mobile phones from luxury items for the elite into essential tools for the masses.

Adenuga’s commitment to self-reliance went far beyond marketing strategies; it was backed by monumental capital investments in hard infrastructure. To ensure that Glo would never be beholden to external actors, he funded game-changing projects directly from his own vision and capital.

Chief among these milestones was the construction of Glo-1, a multi-million-dollar, high-capacity submarine fibre-optic cable stretching over 9,800 kilometres directly from the United Kingdom to Nigeria. Single-handedly funded without taking a single dollar in foreign equity, Glo-1 provided West Africa with unprecedented broadband capacity, drastically improving internet speeds, powering corporate enterprises, and anchoring the region’s digital economy.

Alongside this undersea marvel, Globacom built an extensive terrestrial fibre-optic backbone across Nigeria, expanding coverage into underserved rural communities and providing the critical pipeline for modern data services, mobile banking, and digital commerce.

The fierce independence that defines Globacom is a direct reflection of its founder’s personal journey. Adenuga’s rise is the ultimate story of relentless African grit. Long before he was dubbed “The Bull” of African commerce, a young Adenuga drove taxis and worked security jobs in the United States to pay his way through university.

Returning to Nigeria with a sharp mind and an insatiable work ethic, he built his fortune brick by brick. He conquered hard commodities, established a presence in oil and gas with Conoil, mastered corporate banking, and ultimately turned his sight toward telecommunications. Every venture was driven by the same philosophy: absolute dedication, hands-on execution, and a fierce refusal to settle for second best.

Despite commanding a multi-billion-dollar fortune, Adenuga remains famously reclusive. Operating largely away from public cameras and party circuits, he chooses to let his work speak for him. His quiet philanthropy, strategic investments, and relentless job creation have lifted thousands of families and injected vital energy into the broader West African economy.

Beyond cell towers and fibre-optic lines, Globacom transformed itself into an iconic symbol of African pride. Recognising the power of local culture long before global streaming platforms arrived, Adenuga turned Glo into the largest single corporate promoter of African entertainment and sports.

Glo flooded the creative industry with record-breaking sponsorship deals and endorsements, signing Nollywood legends, musical powerhouses, and sports heroes as brand ambassadors. From sponsoring the prestigious CAF African Footballer of the Year Awards and the Nigerian Premier League to funding cultural festivals, comedy tours, and reality shows, Glo actively elevated African talent to global prominence.

Through these cultural investments, the brand cultivated an emotional connection with millions of subscribers, proving that an African brand could stand tall, celebrate its heritage, and deliver world-class service without losing its soul.

Industry analysts frequently cite Globacom as more than just a corporate success; it is an enduring case study in what happens when visionary local leadership is matched with long-term capital and solid determination. Over 23 years, Glo has weathered fierce market competition, rapid technological transitions from 2G to 5G, and volatile macroeconomic shifts, all while maintaining its position at the top tier of African telecommunications.

As customers, industry leaders, and well-wishers celebrate GLO@23, the milestone serves as a powerful tribute to a titan who dared to build on his own terms.

Today, Globacom isn’t merely a telecom network; it stands as living proof of African capability, self-determination, and industrial excellence. As the green network prepares for its next era of digital expansion, artificial intelligence integration, and next-generation connectivity, one truth remains crystal clear across Africa’s business landscape: The Bull is still on the throne, and his legacy is built to last.

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The Risk of Calling Alex Otti ‘Another Sam Mbakwe’

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Alex Otti Sam Mbakwe

By Blaise Udunze

Do you know that history rarely produces leaders whose names become synonymous with development? In Nigeria’s post-independence political history, only a few governors have achieved that distinction. And, among them stands Dee Sam Mbakwe, whose tenure as Governor of the old Imo State between 1979 and 1983 permanently and to date altered public expectations of what purposeful leadership could accomplish.

One outstanding fact that can’t be erased is that even more than four decades after leaving office, Mbakwe’s name remains shorthand for visionary governance. It has been on record that across today’s Imo, Abia, Ebonyi and parts of Rivers State, the territories carved out of the old Imo State, roads, educational institutions, hospitals and industrial estates associated with his administration still shape public memory to date. His lasting and enduring legacy demonstrates an important principle that visibly shows that governments are remembered less for political speeches or white elephant projects in print than for institutions and infrastructure that survive them.

Today, a similar conversation is unfolding in Abia State. Governor Alex Otti, now in the middle of his first term, is increasingly being compared with the legendary Mbakwe. While noting that it is not a risk, such comparisons should neither be dismissed as political enthusiasm nor accepted as settled history. They deserve careful examination through the lens of governance, economics and institutional transformation. History ultimately rewards evidence, not sentiment.

The more important and inevitable question, therefore, is whether Abia is merely experiencing another burst of public infrastructure or whether it is witnessing the emergence of a developmental state that is strongly built and anchored on long-term economic transformation because the distinction truly matters.

Apt attention is drawn to the view that development economists have long argued that sustained economic growth depends not on isolated projects but on complementary investments in infrastructure, energy, institutions, human capital and productive enterprise. Roads without electricity rarely attract industries. Schools without jobs encourage migration. Fiscal discipline without investment suppresses growth. Successful governments integrate these sectors into a coherent development strategy.

Measured against this framework, Otti’s administration appears to be pursuing something more ambitious than conventional public works.

For decades, the majority of those in the know and who have visited could attest that Abia’s deteriorating road network represented the visible face of state failure. Aba, once known as the commercial heartbeat of the South-East and also one of Africa’s largest clusters of small and medium-scale manufacturers, gradually lost competitiveness as logistics costs rose and businesses struggled with decaying infrastructure.

Economic theory is unequivocal in that infrastructure reduces transaction costs, improves productivity and attracts private investment.

Recognising this reality, the Otti administration has made infrastructure renewal its most visible priority. By its third anniversary, the government reported completing more than 414 road projects covering over 860 kilometres, including strategic economic corridors such as Port Harcourt Road, Ohanku Road, Aguiyi Ironsi Boulevard, Omenuko Bridge and numerous urban and rural link roads.

The significance extends beyond asphalt. This is to say that every rehabilitated road lowers transport costs, improves market access, reduces vehicle operating expenses and enhances the competitiveness of manufacturers, traders and farmers. There must be an understanding that infrastructure, in this context, becomes an economic policy rather than merely a construction programme.

The symbolism of these projects recalls Sam Mbakwe’s philosophy that public works should stimulate production rather than merely create political visibility. Like Mbakwe, Otti appears to recognise that infrastructure is not an end in itself but the foundation upon which economic prosperity is built.

If roads defined Mbakwe’s administration, reliable electricity may ultimately define Otti’s.

Few constraints have damaged Nigeria’s industrial competitiveness more than unreliable power supply. Recognising this, the administration has leveraged the Aba Integrated Power Project developed by Professor Barth Nnaji’s Geometric Power as a catalyst for wider economic transformation.

It is worth noting that Governor Otti has openly acknowledged that more reliable electricity provided the confidence to introduce electric buses into Abia’s transportation system, describing Geometric Power as “a landmark investment” that lays the foundation for industrial growth, energy security, and cleaner transportation. Hence, it has become the goose that lays the golden eggs, as his admission is significant because it demonstrates an understanding that electricity is not merely a utility but an engine of economic growth.

Development is rarely driven by isolated projects. It occurs when infrastructure complements infrastructure. Electricity powers factories. Roads move goods. Efficient transportation expands labour mobility. Water improves public health. Digital infrastructure attracts investment. Together, they create an ecosystem capable of sustaining economic growth.

Professor Barth Nnaji’s disclosure adds another historical dimension to this story. Long before entering politics, Alex Otti played a critical role in securing financing for the Geometric Power Project during his banking career at First Bank and later Diamond Bank. He also helped facilitate the restructuring of the project’s foreign currency obligations from dollars to naira. This continuity suggests that Otti’s commitment to industrial infrastructure predates his governorship. Unlike politicians who discover development after assuming office, his engagement with productive investments appears rooted in decades of experience within Nigeria’s financial system.

One of the enduring criticisms of many Nigerian states is their dependence on monthly allocations from the Federation Account Allocation Committee (FAAC), with limited attention paid to expanding internally generated economic activity. Sam Mbakwe challenged that model through industrial estates and productive public investments.

Otti appears to be pursuing a twenty-first-century version of the same philosophy.

The proposed $145 million solar manufacturing plant in Isiala Ngwa South, government support for Ultimum Limited’s multimillion-dollar beverage manufacturing facility, efforts to operationalise the long-delayed Isiala Ngwa Inland Dry Port and continued urban renewal in Aba all point towards an economy increasingly oriented towards production rather than consumption.

These initiatives matter because investment decisions respond to confidence. Capital flows where infrastructure is reliable, institutions are predictable, and governments demonstrate policy consistency. Every new factory expands employment. Every logistics hub reduces business costs. Every industrial investment broadens the state’s future tax base. This is how economies become less dependent on federal allocations and more reliant on productive enterprise.

Modern development extends beyond physical infrastructure. Recognising this reality, the administration has invested in healthcare, expanded educational reforms, upgraded public hospitals, recruited teachers and healthcare personnel and partnered with the Federal Government, the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) and TETFund to establish Nigeria’s first Manufacturing Technology University Innovation Pod at Michael Okpara University of Agriculture, Umudike.

The symbolism is significant. While Mbakwe built institutions for an industrial economy, Otti appears to be preparing Abia for an innovation-driven economy where manufacturing increasingly depends on technology, research and advanced skills. Development today requires not only roads and bridges but also intellectual infrastructure.

Beyond healthcare and education, the rehabilitation of the Ubakala and Ariaria Water Schemes underscores the administration’s recognition that access to potable water remains a critical driver of public health and productivity. Likewise, it would be said that the rollout of electric buses, commissioned by the Director-General of the World Trade Organisation, Dr Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, represents an early attempt to align Abia’s transportation system with global trends in sustainable urban mobility. The basic fact is that these initiatives reinforce the idea that development is most effective when sectors are integrated rather than treated as isolated government programmes, which has been a norm with many states.

Perhaps the least visible but most consequential reform lies in governance itself.

Markets respond not merely to infrastructure but to credibility. Businesses invest where contracts are respected. Banks lend where institutions function. Citizens willingly pay taxes where governments deliver services.

Against this backdrop, efforts to improve fiscal discipline, reduce inherited liabilities, clear more than N40 billion in salary and pension arrears, strengthen transparency and restore confidence in public administration become economic reforms in their own right.

Governance is itself infrastructure. It lowers uncertainty, attracts investment, encourages entrepreneurship and expands opportunity.

One cannot overlook the growing external validation of Abia’s transformation. Members of the Presidency’s Renewed Hope Media Team, after touring projects across the state, publicly acknowledged the scale of infrastructural renewal taking place. The willingness of investors to commit $145 million to a solar manufacturing facility, the collaboration between the Abia State Government, the Federal Government, UNDP and TETFund on innovation projects, and ongoing discussions around the Abia International Airport all point to increasing confidence in the state’s development trajectory.

This matters because no state government possesses sufficient resources to finance development alone; as such, partnerships also come to the rescue. Sustainable economic transformation depends on attracting private investment, fostering productive partnerships and creating an enabling environment where businesses can flourish and remain sustainable.

Notwithstanding, understand that comparisons with Sam Mbakwe should be aptly approached with caution. History has already delivered its verdict on Mbakwe, and there must be this understanding that his reputation has endured because successive generations continued to experience the value of the infrastructure and institutions he built.

Alex Otti’s story is still being written. Many flagship projects remain under construction. The proposed Abia International Airport, the planned FIFA-standard stadium in Aba, the expansion of industrial clusters, the operationalisation of the Isiala Ngwa Inland Dry Port and other strategic initiatives must ultimately translate into measurable improvements in economic performance.

The true indicators of success will not simply be kilometres of roads completed or projects commissioned. They will include higher internally generated revenue, increased private investment, expanded manufacturing output, lower unemployment, stronger small and medium-sized enterprises, improved educational outcomes, wider healthcare access, increased exports and rising household incomes.

These are the metrics that distinguish transformational governance from routine administration.

Nigeria has never lacked development plans. What it has often lacked is disciplined execution.

Sam Mbakwe demonstrated that purposeful leadership could transform public expectations even within a single tenure. Alex Otti appears to be pursuing a similar path under far more difficult macroeconomic conditions characterised by high inflation, fiscal constraints, exchange-rate volatility, elevated public debt and heightened public scrutiny.

Whether he ultimately joins the ranks of Nigeria’s truly transformational governors will depend less on today’s commendations than on tomorrow’s outcomes.

If the institutions being built endure, if industries expand, if investors continue to choose Abia, if innovation flourishes and if ordinary citizens experience sustained improvements in their quality of life, history may indeed place Alex Otti alongside Sam Mbakwe.

For history has always reserved its highest honours not for politicians who merely won elections, but for leaders who fundamentally changed the economic destiny of their people.

Blaise, a journalist and PR professional, writes from Lagos and can be reached via: bl***********@***il.com

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The Kaduna Peace Model, HURIWA and Northern Governors: Promise, Proof or Anagnorisis?

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Sani Abdulrazak rural kaduna

By Sani Abdulrazak, PhD

The fundamentality of securing our lives and property, especially in Northern Nigeria, cannot be overemphasised. Any other responsibility comes after this for a responsible government. Sadly, for close to two decades, Northern Nigeria has been a gallows of despair, rape, and death. From banditry and freelance killings that scratch, pierce, and are ruining the North West, to the bloody insurgency that barks and bites in the North East, to farmers-herder conflicts in the North Central, leaving behind a scorching trail of rancour and sorrow of unimaginable proportion for millions, Kaduna State was one of the worst-hit states in terms of banditry and kidnappings, ethno-religious conflicts, and freelance killings.

But in the last three years, the state has metamorphosed into one of the most peaceful in the region via the Kaduna Peace Model. More so, the recent endorsement of the Kaduna Peace Model by the Human Rights Writers Association of Nigeria (HURIWA) deserves thoughtful examination rather than unquestioning acceptance. HURIWA’s position has brought renewed attention to Kaduna State’s approach to conflict management and peacebuilding. The endorsement raises an important policy question: Has Kaduna developed a governance model capable of reducing conflict in a sustainable manner, and if so, why have other northern states not moved to adapt it? These questions deserve answers rooted in facts rather than political loyalties.

The phrase “Kaduna Peace Model” does not point to or refer to a single law, policy document, or institutional framework. Rather, it describes an evolving approach that combines conventional security operations with community engagement, dialogue among stakeholders, collaboration with traditional and religious institutions, support for security agencies, conflict mediation, and development interventions in communities affected by violence. Instead of relying exclusively on military responses, the approach seeks to address some of the social and political conditions that often sustain insecurity. Whether this amounts to a distinct governance model remains open to debate. Nevertheless, it reflects a broader understanding that lasting peace requires more than the deployment of armed personnel. Security may suppress violence temporarily, but durable peace depends equally on trust, inclusion, justice, and economic opportunity.

The next question is unavoidable: Has the approach worked?

The evidence suggests that Kaduna today presents a different security picture from that of three years ago, although not an entirely peaceful one. Around 2023, the state remained one of Nigeria’s most violence-affected regions. Conflict trackers documented frequent attacks, kidnappings, and communal violence, with 85 recorded conflict incidents resulting in 261 fatalities in the final quarter of 2023 alone. Entire communities lived under constant fear, farming activities were disrupted in several local government areas, and many roads within the state became synonymous with insecurity.

Recent years, however, indicate a significant degree of improvement in almost all parts of the state. Some communities have resumed agricultural activities, commercial movement has improved along previously troubled corridors, and government engagement with local communities has become more visible. These developments suggest that violence has, in almost all areas of the state, reduced in intensity. Yet such observations should not be mistaken for a declaration of victory.

A meaningful assessment, however, goes beyond casualty figures alone. It must also consider whether displaced persons have returned home, whether schools operate without interruption, whether farmers cultivate their lands without fear, whether markets function normally, and whether citizens genuinely perceive improvements in their daily security. Peace, as we know it, is not merely the absence of gunfire; it is the restoration of ordinary life.

It is within this context that HURIWA’s endorsement should be understood.

Civil society organisations play an important role in recognising promising governance practices, encouraging innovation, and stimulating public debate. Their endorsements can influence policy conversations and encourage governments to learn from one another. However, endorsements are neither official certifications nor substitutes for independent evaluation. Every governance model, regardless of who praises it, must remain open to scrutiny, evidence, and continuous improvement.

The larger question, therefore, is whether the Kaduna experience can be replicated elsewhere across Northern Nigeria.

It is a fact that certain principles underlying the Kaduna approach are broadly applicable. Community dialogue, cooperation between government and traditional institutions, investment in local peacebuilding, and stronger collaboration with security agencies are strategies that have relevance beyond Kaduna’s borders. But due to the non-uniformity and complexity of the hydra-headed nature of insecurity across Northern Nigeria, it becomes almost impossible for the model to work across the whole of Northern Nigeria. The security dynamics of Kaduna differ from those of Zamfara, Katsina, Sokoto, Niger, Benue, Plateau, or Borno. Banditry, communal conflicts, terrorism, farmer-herder disputes, and transnational criminal networks vary significantly in their causes and manifestations. A strategy that succeeds in one environment cannot simply be copied into another without adjustment.

This probably explains why other northern governors have not simply adopted what is popularly described as the Kaduna Peace Model. Effective governance is context-specific. Every state possesses different demographic realities, institutional capacities, historical grievances, and security challenges. Replication without adaptation risks producing disappointing outcomes. If northern states are to draw lessons from Kaduna’s experience, several adjustments are necessary. Independent conflict assessments should precede policy adoption. Local governments must become stronger partners in peacebuilding. Traditional and religious leaders should be integrated into structured dialogue mechanisms rather than informal consultations alone. Reliable security data should guide decision-making, while transparent monitoring systems should measure outcomes beyond political narratives. Economic recovery, youth employment, and access to justice must complement security interventions if peace is to endure.

Despite its widely acknowledged contributions to reducing insecurity and fostering dialogue over the past three years, the Kaduna Peace Model is not without significant shortcomings. One of its most notable weaknesses is the absence of a clearly documented framework that defines its philosophy, guiding principles, operational structure, implementation strategy, monitoring indicators, and evaluation mechanisms. Consequently, much of what is described as the “Kaduna Peace Model” exists in practice rather than in a codified, replicable document, making independent assessment, institutional continuity, and adaptation by other jurisdictions difficult. Furthermore, the model remains heavily dependent on the commitment of the incumbent political leadership, raising concerns about its sustainability beyond the current administration. While it has contributed to stabilising many communities, it has yet to comprehensively address the underlying structural drivers of conflict, including competition over natural resources and historical grievances, and questions persist regarding transparency, measurable performance indicators, accountability, and the extent of participation by women, youth, victims, and other marginalised groups. These limitations suggest that although the model has demonstrated practical value, its long-term effectiveness would be strengthened through formal documentation, institutionalisation, a robust implementation framework, and regular independent evaluation.

Possibly the greatest lesson from Kaduna is not that it has discovered a perfect formula for peace. No society has. Rather, it demonstrates that conflict management increasingly demands governance approaches that extend beyond military deployments alone. Therefore, HURIWA’s endorsement should not be viewed as the conclusion of the conversation but as its beginning. Whether the Kaduna Peace Model becomes a genuine reference point for other states will depend less on public commendation than on rigorous evidence, independent evaluation, and its ability to produce durable improvements in the lives of ordinary citizens.

In governance, therefore, the true measure of peace is not the number of endorsements the Kaduna Peace Model receives. It is the number of lives it has protected, the communities restored, and the confidence with which citizens wake each morning believing that tomorrow will be safer than yesterday.

Sani Abdulrazak, PhD, is a writer, researcher and public affairs analyst based in Zaria, Kaduna State

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