Economy
Inflation to Ease to 11.31% in February—FSDH
By Modupe Gbadeyanka
The research arm of Lagos-based financial institution, FSDH Merchant Bank, has said it expects inflation rate for the month of February 2019 to moderate to 11.31 percent from 11.37 percent recorded a month earlier.
In its Inflation Watch report, FSDH Research said the drop in inflation will defy electioneering spending, which was earlier predicted to contribute to a rise in the head inflation.
The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) will release the inflation figure for the month of February on Friday, March 15, 2019, well ahead of the second Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting of this year scheduled for March 25-26, 2019.
On February 23, 2019, Nigeria held the presidential and National Assembly elections, while on March 9, 2019, the governorship and state houses of assembly polls took place.
“If the inflation rate drops, can we expect a further drop in interest rates (yields) on fixed income securities? Or, can we expect members of the MPC of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) to clap their hands for achieving stability in domestic prices and reduce policy rates?” the firm asked, saying it believes inflation rate in double digits, “as we predict it in 2019 and through 2022, may not justify a reduction in the monetary policy rates.”
“We believe there are many other issues that Nigerian economic managers need to address before the Nigerian economy can enjoy a low, as many people suggest, single digit interest rate,” the report said.
It further noted that, “When there is a general increase in the prices of goods and services, there is the tendency for suppliers (producers) to be happy as it should increase their profit.
“However, an increase in the general prices of goods is not good for consumers as it reduces their buying powers: the same amount of money cannot buy the same quantity of goods as it previously could.
“On the other hand, when there is a persistent decrease in the prices of goods and services, the profit of the suppliers (producers) will drop while the consumers’ ability to buy goods increases as a certain amount of money is enough to purchase more units of goods.
“Therefore, a balance in general prices of goods is needed to encourage both producers and consumers. This is why the CBN regularly modifies interest rate and yields to achieve a target range of inflation rate, currently put at 6 percent to 9 percent.”
FSDH Research the price monitor it conducted on certain food and non-food items in February showed that most prices increased at a slower rate in February than in January.
It said the slower pace of increase was an indication of an expected drop in the inflation rate in February.
“Our analysis shows the movements in the international food prices did not exert upward pressure on local prices in February.
“The report published by the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) of the United Nations for the month of February 2019 shows that food prices such as sugar, milk, butter, cheese, meat, oils, rice, wheat and maize increased on the international market.
“However, the value of the Naira strengthened against the Dollar during the month. The appreciation recorded in the Naira eliminated the impact of the increase in the international food prices on local prices.
“Although the inflation rate is trending downwards, FSDH Research stresses that certain economic realities may not guarantee a continued downward trend. The key limiting factors to a continued drop in the inflation rate are the need for adjustments to the current pricing regime of Petroleum Motor Spirit (PMS) and the electricity tariff.
“If these adjustments are carried out, government will save a certain amount of money that could and should be redirected to fund other critical sectors of the economy such as healthcare, education, security and infrastructure development.
“If this was the case, we would expect these adjustments to attract investments into those sectors. Although such adjustments may shift the inflation curve from its current level, the good news is that it may not go higher than 13 percent level.
“It is important to note that, if the Federal Government of Nigeria (FGN) implements these pricing adjustments, FSDH Research expects the average inflation rate of 2019 to be around the same average inflation rate of 2018. Meanwhile, the inflation rate would be substantially lower than it was in 2016 and 2017.
“Therefore, it may be better for Nigeria to remove ‘subsidies’ in both the energy and power sectors. We believe it would be a case of temporary pains and permanent gains.”
By Bon Peter
The Area 11 Command of the Nigeria Customs Service (NCS) in Onne, Rivers State surpassed its 2024 annual revenue target by N16 billion.
This information was revealed to newsmen by the Customs Area Controller of the Command, Mr Mohammed Babandede, at a news conference last week.
He also disclosed that the command recently intercepted 12 containers of illicit drugs worth over N20.30 billion concealed in various items.
According to him, the content of the seized container included 1,721,100 bottles of 100ml cough syrup codeine, 510,000 tablets of 50mg Really Extra Diclofenac, 7,100,000 tablets of 225mg Royal apple Tramadol and Tramaking, 3,461 pieces of sanitary ware fittings used for concealment, 840 pieces of Chilly cutter used for concealment, and 153 cartons of TVS rubber.
“Our vigilant officers and men have successfully intercepted and seized an additional 12 containers (40 feet) of illicit medicine.
“This is a testament to our unwavering commitment to safeguarding public health, ensuring security of our nation and compliance with Nigeria’s import regulations. This also justifies our commitment to trade facilitation, transparency, effective and efficient service,” he said.
He said last year, the command received the support of different stakeholders, thanking them for working with the agency to achieve success.
“We appreciate the continued support and collaboration of all stakeholders, including the media, in amplifying our message and efforts to combat smuggling,” he said.
Mr Babandede stated that, “It is worth noting that the morale and dedication of our officers have been significantly bolstered by the Comptroller-General of Customs’ award, recognizing Area 2 Command as the Best Command in Anti-Smuggling Operations.
“This honour has further strengthened our resolve, and I assure you that we will not relent in performing our duties to protect the lives and well-being of Nigerians.”
The customs chief said earlier last year, the command was given a revenue target of N618 billion but as of December 31, 2024, it generated N634 billion, higher than the N321 billion recorded in 2023, promising to do more in 2025.
By Dipo Olowookere
The Nigerian Exchange (NGX) Limited appreciated by 0.39 per cent on Friday as the demand for local equities continued to increase.
During the final trading session of the week, the insurance maintained its upward trend with a growth of 7.81 per cent as the banking index appreciated by 1.08 per cent, the consumer goods sector rose by 0.52 per cent, and the industrial goods counter expanded by 0.33 per cent, while the energy space went down by 0.49 per cent.
At the close of business, the All-Share Index (ASI) jumped by 406.19 points to 103,586.33 points from 103,180.14 points, and the market capitalisation increased by N248 billion to N63.166 trillion from N62.918 trillion.
The bourse recorded 67 appreciating shares and 11 depreciating shares, implying a positive market breadth index and strong investor sentiment.
Chams, Omatek, NCR Nigeria, Learn Africa, and Regency Alliance topped the gainers’ table after they gained 10.00 per cent each to finish at N2.31, 88 Kobo, N6.05, N4.95, and 88 Kobo, respectively.
On the flip side, TotalEnergies lost 9.74 per cent to trade at N630.00, CWG depreciated by 6.04 per cent to close at N7.00, Thomas Wyatt went down by 5.26 per cent to N1.80, ABC Transport crumbled by 4.07 per cent to N1.18, and UAC Nigeria shed 3.19 per cent to N31.90.
Yesterday, investors traded 709.3 million stocks valued at N8.2 billion in 13,593 deals compared with the 829.8 million stocks worth N5.7 billion transacted in 11,752 deals on Thursday, representing a slowdown in the trading volume by 14.52 per cent and a rise in the trading value and number of deals by 43.86 per cent and 15.67 per cent, respectively.
At the close of business, Chams topped the activity log with 58.1 million equities sold for N133.8 million, Veritas Kapital traded 55.1 million shares valued at N89.2 million, Abbey Mortgage Bank exchanged 50.1 million stocks for N165.5 million, AIICO Insurance transacted 39.7 million equities worth N68.3 million, and NPF Microfinance Bank sold 34.3 million stocks valued at N64.0 million.
By Adedapo Adesanya
The NASD Over-the-Counter (OTC) Securities Exchange extended its positive start to the year with a 0.08 per cent rise on Friday, January 3.
The market saw a gain of N840 million, with the value of the alternative bourse growing to N1.046 trillion from the N1.045 trillion it closed a day earlier as the NASD Unlisted Security Index (NSI) made an addition of 2.43 points to wrap the session at 3,052.34 points compared with 3,049.91 points recorded at the previous session.
The appreciation posted yesterday at the NASD OTC exchange was caused by two price gainers led by Industrial and General Insurance (IGI) Plc which jumped by 2 Kobo to end at 20 Kobo per share compared with the preceding session’s 18 Kobo per share and UBN Property Plc, which improved its value by 16 Kobo to close at N1.98 per unit, in contrast to Thursday’s closing price f N1.82 per unit.
The market posted a price loser, which was FrieslandCampina Wamco Nigeria Plc as it dropped 18 Kobo to finish at N39.76 share versus the previous day’s N39.94 per share.
There was an 856.6 per cent surge in the volume of securities traded in the session to 11.3 million units from the 1.2 million units traded in the preceding session.
Equally, there was a jump in the value of shares traded yesterday by 1,078.4 per cent to N56.8 million from the N4.8 million made previously, and the number of deals increased by 22.7 per cent to 27 deals from 22 deals.
FrieslandCampina Wamco Nigeria Plc was the most active stock by value (year-to-date) with 1.4 units worth N55.8 million, IGI Plc came next with 10.6 million units valued at N2.1 million, and 11 Plc was in third with 6,45 units sold for N1.4 million.
IGI Plc closed the day as the most active stock by volume (year-to-date) with 10.6 million units sold for N2.1 million, FrieslandCampina Wamco Nigeria Plc came next with 1.4 million units valued at N55.8 million, and UBN Property Plc followed with 275,740 units worth N545,965.
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