Economy
Nigeria Likely to Adopt Single Exchange Rate 2020—Fitch
By Dipo Olowookere
The multiple exchange rate system operated by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has been talked about and kicked against by several financial experts and economists in and outside the country. They have always argued that the system was absurd.
In the wake of this present administration, former CBN Governor and now Emir of Kano, Mr Sanusi Lamido, said the system was making few individuals millionaires and billionaires at the expense of the nation.
This is because the central bank has a rate of N305 per Dollar that is far lesser than the rates at the black market as well as the investors and exporters forex window of N363 to a Dollar.
The traditional ruler had argued that with the present system, it was easy for few powerful Nigerians to obtain forex at the interbank rate and make a profit of over N50 per Dollar selling to black market traders.
But the CBN has always argued that it would gradually unify the different rates at the forex market segments.
Business Post reports that the major market windows in the country are the Interbank, Investors & Exporters, Bureau De Change (BDC) and the black market.
Recently, renowned rating agency, Fitch, released a report, where it said the country’s apex bank will likely not carry out any forex reform this year but in 2020.
Before the February 2019 presidential, which was won by the incumbent President Muhammadu Buhari, his opponent at the poll, Mr Atiku Abubaker, had promised a unification of the rates to allow a more free-market.
With the election over, Fitch said in the short-term, “We believe that there will be little change to Nigeria’s current exchange rate regime in the immediate aftermath of the February 2019 general election.
“The official interbank rate currently sits at N305.87/$, while the ‘investor and export’ window (also known as the Nigerian Autonomous Foreign Exchange Rate, NAFEX) is trading at N362.68/$.
“The official interbank rate is officially pegged to the US dollar at the current level and used primarily as a reference rate for transactions by the state-owned Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation (NNPC).
“The NAFEX rate – at which investors, importers and non-state oil exporters buy and sell FX – is ostensibly free-floating but is also in effect managed.
“We believe that the authorities will remain determined – and able – to hold rates around their existing levels in the months ahead,” Fitch said in the report obtained by Business Post.
In terms of ability, Nigeria’s total gross reserves stood at $43.1 billion in late January – some 6.2 percent above levels seen at this point last year.
Import cover stands at more than 8 months, which although down from the October 2017 level of more than nine months is well above Nigeria’s recent low of 4.8 months in 2014.
“This level of reserves will give the authorities the resources to keep the market supplied in the context of slowing dollar inflows,” the agency stated.
Fitch said it has the strong believe that in the long-term, “We expect a shift away from the multi-tiered exchange rate and a consolidation of exchange rates, initially around the prevailing NAFEX level.
“However, this is unlikely to take place in 2019, and we thus expect the interbank rate – the rate that we forecast – to end the year at N306/$.
“Rather, we believe it is far more likely to take place in 2020, alongside the projected completion of the 650,000bbl/day Dangote oil refinery,” it said.
According to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), Nigeria’s downstream oil and gas sector imported petrol worth N1.02 trillion in the third quarter of 2018 alone. The coming online of the refinery will go some of the way towards easing the size of the import bill and making the effective devaluation of the interbank rate (which is used primarily for fuel imports) less painful.
“We thus expect the new Naira rate to end the year at some N370$.
“Following the unification, we believe that a gradual depreciation of the new Naira rate is likely. The authorities are likely to continue heavily managing its exchange rate regime.
“However, deteriorating fundamentals will put downward pressure on the currency. This underpins our forecast that the Naira will end 2020 at N370/$, and will continue to depreciate steadily thereafter.
“We expect the price of Brent crude to average $75.0/bbl in 2019 and $82.0/bbl in 2020, and while this is an improvement on the $71.7/bbl in 2018, oil prices will remain well below their 2011-14 highs, and risks are weighted to the downside,” Fitch said.
“Our Oil & Gas team currently see limited growth in the sector beyond 2019 given a very restricted pipeline of projects, although there is an upside risk that genuine reform of the industry will spur a resurgence in much needed investment.
“In the context of only muted growth in oil revenues, we expect the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) to allow the unified rate to devalue slowly in a bid to ease the pressure on reserves,” it concluded.
Economy
Insurance Firms Must Submit 2025 Assessment Returns by May 31—NAICOM
By Adedapo Adesanya
The National Insurance Commission has issued new guidelines for the collection, management, and administration of the Insurance Policyholders’ Protection Fund.
In a circular issued to all insurance institutions on Tuesday, the regulator also set May 31, 2026, as the deadline for insurers to submit their assessment returns for the 2025 financial year.
Recall that on August 5, 2025, President Bola Tinubu signed into law the Nigerian Insurance Industry Reform Act ( NIIRA 2025).
This landmark legislation repeals the Insurance Act 2003, and consolidates related provisions, ushering in a modern regulatory framework. It lays a strong foundation for sustainable growth and increased investment in the country’s insurance sector.
The commission said the guidelines were issued in exercise of its powers under the 2025 Act and other existing insurance laws and regulations to provide regulatory clarity, improve guidance, and ensure ease of compliance across the industry.
According to NAICOM, the guidelines establish a comprehensive structure for the operation of the IPPF, which serves as a statutory safety net to protect insurance policyholders in the event of distress or insolvency of a licensed insurer or reinsurer. The framework also provides direction on the reimbursement of loans by insurers and reinsurers.
NAICOM stated, “The guidelines ensure regulatory clarity, guidance and ease of compliance, as it provides a comprehensive regulatory framework for the collection, management, and administration of the Fund, which serves as a statutory safety net designed to protect insurance policyholders against distress and insolvency of a licensed insurer or reinsurer, including guidance for the reimbursement of loans by an insurer or reinsurer.
“Please be informed that the IPPF Assessment Returns in respect of the year 2025 shall be submitted to the Commission not later than 31st May 2026, while subsequent submissions shall be in line with Section 4.3 of the Guideline on Insurance Policyholders Protection Fund.”
Economy
Dangote Refinery Sells Petrol at N1,200/L as Global Oil Prices Slump
By Adedapo Adesanya
The Dangote Refinery on Wednesday returned the petrol price to N1,200 per litre, less than 24 hours after it increased it by 5 per cent.
The private refinery had raised the ex-depot price by N75 on Tuesday, citing pressure from volatile global oil markets, but quickly brought it back to N1,200 per litre from N1,275 per litre.
The swift downward review is directly linked to a sharp drop in international crude prices. Brent crude has plunged to $95.05 per barrel, after a 13 per cent decline, while the US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude closed at $97.18, recording nearly a 14 per cent drop.
This development comes after US President Donald Trump announced a conditional two-week ceasefire with Iran, which eased fears of immediate supply disruptions in the global oil market.
“This will be a double-sided CEASEFIRE!” Trump said on social media, marking a sharp reversal from his earlier warning that “a whole civilisation will die tonight” if Iran failed to comply with US demands.
Iran’s Foreign Minister, Mr Abbas Araqchi, confirmed that the country would halt attacks provided strikes against Iran cease and transit through the Strait of Hormuz is coordinated by Iranian forces.
Despite the breakthrough, tensions remain elevated across the region, with several Gulf states reporting missile launches, drone activity, or issuing civil defence warnings.
While oil prices have fallen back below $100, they remain significantly elevated after surging by a record amount in March. Market analysts noted that regardless of how successful the ceasefire is, geopolitical risk related to the Strait of Hormuz is likely to remain elevated for the foreseeable future under the control of Iran.
Economy
Crude Deliveries Double to Dangote Refinery in Mix of Naira, Dollar Supply
By Adedapo Adesanya
Crude oil deliveries from the Nigerian National Petroleum Company (NNPC) Limited to the Dangote Petroleum Refinery doubled in March, boosting prospects for improved fuel availability.
This was revealed by the chief executive of Dangote Industries Limited, Mr Aliko Dangote, on Tuesday, when he received the Deputy Secretary-General of the United Nations, Mrs Amina Mohammed, at the industrial complex in Ibeju-Lekki, Lagos.
While speaking on feedstock supply, Mr Dangote commended the NNPC for increasing crude deliveries to the refinery in March, noting that volumes rose to 10 cargoes—six supplied in Naira and four in Dollars—to support domestic fuel availability, according to a statement by the Refinery.
“Last month, they gave us six cargoes for Naira and four cargoes for Dollars,” he said.
Despite the improvement, Mr Dangote noted that the supply remains below the 19 cargoes required for optimal operations, with the refinery continuing to bridge the gap through imports from the United States and other African producers.
He also expressed concern over the unwillingness of international oil companies operating in Nigeria to sell to the refinery, stating that their preference for selling crude to traders forces it to repurchase at higher costs, with broader implications for the economy.
Mr Dangote added that the refinery is seeking increased access to domestically priced crude under local currency arrangements as part of efforts to moderate fuel costs and enhance long-term energy and food security across the continent.
On her part, Mrs Mohammed underscored the strategic importance of Dangote Industries Limited -particularly Dangote Fertiliser Limited—in addressing Africa’s mounting food security challenges, while calling for stronger global partnerships to scale its impact.
Mrs Mohammed said the United Nations would prioritise amplifying scalable solutions capable of mitigating the continent’s food crisis, describing Dangote’s integrated industrial model as a critical pathway.
“I think the UN’s job here is to amplify and to put visibility on the possibilities of mitigating a food security crisis, and this is one of them,” she said. “I hope that when we go back, we can continue to engage partners and countries that should collaborate with Dangote Industries.”
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