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Nigeria Likely to Adopt Single Exchange Rate 2020—Fitch

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By Dipo Olowookere

The multiple exchange rate system operated by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has been talked about and kicked against by several financial experts and economists in and outside the country. They have always argued that the system was absurd.

In the wake of this present administration, former CBN Governor and now Emir of Kano, Mr Sanusi Lamido, said the system was making few individuals millionaires and billionaires at the expense of the nation.

This is because the central bank has a rate of N305 per Dollar that is far lesser than the rates at the black market as well as the investors and exporters forex window of N363 to a Dollar.

The traditional ruler had argued that with the present system, it was easy for few powerful Nigerians to obtain forex at the interbank rate and make a profit of over N50 per Dollar selling to black market traders.

But the CBN has always argued that it would gradually unify the different rates at the forex market segments.

Business Post reports that the major market windows in the country are the Interbank, Investors & Exporters, Bureau De Change (BDC) and the black market.

Recently, renowned rating agency, Fitch, released a report, where it said the country’s apex bank will likely not carry out any forex reform this year but in 2020.

Before the February 2019 presidential, which was won by the incumbent President Muhammadu Buhari, his opponent at the poll, Mr Atiku Abubaker, had promised a unification of the rates to allow a more free-market.

With the election over, Fitch said in the short-term, “We believe that there will be little change to Nigeria’s current exchange rate regime in the immediate aftermath of the February 2019 general election.

“The official interbank rate currently sits at N305.87/$, while the ‘investor and export’ window (also known as the Nigerian Autonomous Foreign Exchange Rate, NAFEX) is trading at N362.68/$.

“The official interbank rate is officially pegged to the US dollar at the current level and used primarily as a reference rate for transactions by the state-owned Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation (NNPC).

“The NAFEX rate – at which investors, importers and non-state oil exporters buy and sell FX – is ostensibly free-floating but is also in effect managed.

“We believe that the authorities will remain determined – and able – to hold rates around their existing levels in the months ahead,” Fitch said in the report obtained by Business Post.

In terms of ability, Nigeria’s total gross reserves stood at $43.1 billion in late January – some 6.2 percent above levels seen at this point last year.

Import cover stands at more than 8 months, which although down from the October 2017 level of more than nine months is well above Nigeria’s recent low of 4.8 months in 2014.

“This level of reserves will give the authorities the resources to keep the market supplied in the context of slowing dollar inflows,” the agency stated.

Fitch said it has the strong believe that in the long-term, “We expect a shift away from the multi-tiered exchange rate and a consolidation of exchange rates, initially around the prevailing NAFEX level.

“However, this is unlikely to take place in 2019, and we thus expect the interbank rate – the rate that we forecast – to end the year at N306/$.

“Rather, we believe it is far more likely to take place in 2020, alongside the projected completion of the 650,000bbl/day Dangote oil refinery,” it said.

According  to  the  National  Bureau  of  Statistics (NBS),  Nigeria’s  downstream  oil  and  gas  sector imported petrol worth N1.02 trillion in the third quarter of 2018 alone. The coming online of the refinery will go some of the way towards easing the size of the import bill and making the effective devaluation of the interbank rate (which is used primarily for fuel imports) less painful.

“We thus expect the new Naira rate to end the year at some N370$.

“Following the unification, we believe that a gradual depreciation of the new Naira rate is likely. The authorities are likely to continue heavily managing its exchange rate regime.

“However, deteriorating fundamentals will put downward pressure on the currency. This underpins our forecast that the Naira will end 2020 at N370/$, and will continue to depreciate steadily thereafter.

“We expect the price of Brent crude to average $75.0/bbl in 2019 and $82.0/bbl in 2020, and while this is an improvement on the $71.7/bbl in 2018, oil prices will remain well below their 2011-14 highs, and risks are weighted to the downside,” Fitch said.

“Our Oil & Gas team currently see limited growth in the sector beyond 2019 given a very restricted pipeline of projects, although there is an upside risk that genuine reform of the industry will spur a resurgence in much needed investment.

“In the context of only muted growth in oil revenues, we expect the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) to allow the unified rate to devalue slowly in a bid to ease the pressure on reserves,” it concluded.

Dipo Olowookere is a journalist based in Nigeria that has passion for reporting business news stories. At his leisure time, he watches football and supports 3SC of Ibadan. Mr Olowookere can be reached via [email protected]

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Economy

Crude Oil Prices Climb on Fears of Prolonged Iran War Disruptions

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By Adedapo Adesanya

Crude oil prices climbed about 3 per cent on Monday as worries over supply disruption from the Iran war offset a report that the US had agreed to ‌waive sanctions on Iranian crude during talks.

Brent futures rose $2.84 or 2.6 per cent to $112.10 a barrel, while the US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude for June delivery jumped $3.24 or 3.1 per cent to $108.66 per barrel.

Drone attacks on both the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Saudi Arabia further dimmed hopes of any de-escalation in the region.

The drone strikes included an attack that led to a fire near the Barakah nuclear power plant in the UAE, with the country’s defence ministry saying two other drones had been successfully dealt with. Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia said it had intercepted three drones that entered its airspace from Iraq.

These attacks are just the latest in a string of attacks on US allies in the region after President Donald Trump launched Project Freedom, his latest attempt to reopen the Strait of Hormuz for trade.

The lack of a breakthrough on an Iran agreement during President Trump’s visit to China also added to upward pressure for oil prices, with fears of major global shortages now rising rapidly.

Also, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said ​commercial oil inventories were depleting rapidly, with only a few weeks’ worth left due to the conflict and the closure of the strait to shipping.

The head of the Paris-based agency, Mr Fatih Birol, said the release of strategic reserves had added 2.5 million barrels of oil per day to the market, but they were “not endless”.

Reuters cited an Iranian media report that the US had accepted in the new text to waive Iran’s oil sanctions during the period of talks, also reporting that Pakistan has shared with the US a revised proposal from Iran to end the war in the Middle East.

According to the Financial Times, Scotland-based economists are now examining a scenario where Brent crude surges to $180 per barrel if traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains constrained for an extended period.

In China, growth lost momentum in April, with industrial output cooling and retail sales sinking to more than three-year lows as the world’s second-biggest economy faced higher energy costs from the Iran war and persistently weak domestic demand.

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FG Unveils Tax Ombud Office’s Website, Toll-Free Call Centre

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By Adedapo Adesanya

The federal government has reaffirmed its commitment to building a transparent, accountable and citizen-focused tax administration system, with the unveiling of the official website and launch of the toll-free call centre of the Tax Ombud Office.

The Minister of Information and National Orientation, Mr Mohammed Idris, on Monday described the development as a major step toward improving public confidence in the country’s tax system and enhancing access to complaint-resolution services for taxpayers.

“This is a major milestone in strengthening public trust, improving accessibility, and promoting fairness in Nigeria’s tax administration system. Effective communication and citizen engagement remain central to the success of ongoing economic reforms such as this,” the minister said.

He noted that the Mr Bola Tinubu-led administration was focused on implementing reforms aimed at strengthening revenue generation, ensuring fiscal sustainability and driving national development.

According to him, “Under the visionary leadership of President Bola Tinubu, the federal government remains steadfast in its commitment to building a stronger, more resilient, and prosperous economy through bold and strategic reforms.”

The minister stressed the importance of taxation in national development, saying it provides resources needed for investments in critical sectors such as infrastructure, healthcare, education, transportation and security.

He, however, maintained that tax administration must be built on trust, transparency and fairness rather than enforcement alone.

“Tax administration cannot succeed on enforcement alone. It must be supported by public trust, transparency, fairness, and effective communication,” Mr Idris stated.

He explained that the Tax Ombud Office was created to serve as a bridge between taxpayers and tax authorities by providing a fair and professional platform for handling complaints and resolving disputes.

The minister also commended the introduction of the toll-free call centre and official website, describing them as important tools for improving public access to information and removing communication barriers.

“The launch of the Toll-Free Call Centre demonstrates a commitment to removing communication barriers and ensuring that Nigerians can easily seek information, make enquiries, and resolve complaints without unnecessary difficulties or financial burden,” he added.

Mr Idris further emphasised the need for sustained civic education and public enlightenment to encourage voluntary tax compliance and responsible citizenship.

“Tax education is not just about revenue generation; it is about building a culture of national participation and shared responsibility,” he said.

The minister warned that misinformation and poor communication often weaken public trust in reforms, calling for stronger collaboration among government institutions, the media, civil society groups and other stakeholders.

“Misinformation and inadequate communication often contribute to distrust and resistance to reforms. This underscores the importance of strategic media engagement and sustained public communication,” he noted.

He pledged the continued support of the Federal Ministry of Information and National Orientation in sensitising Nigerians on tax reforms, taxpayers’ rights and available complaint-resolution mechanisms.

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Peter Obi Raises Eyebrows Over Tinubu’s $11.6bn Debt Servicing Plan

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By Aduragbemi Omiyale

The presidential candidate of the Labour Party in the 2023 general elections, Mr Peter Obi, has expressed worry over plans by the administration of President Bola Tinubu to spend about $11.6 billion on debt servicing.

In a post on his social media platform on Monday, the opposition politician criticised this move, saying it is not good for the country.

He also said this action “should concern anyone interested in the country’s economic future and long-term development.”

The former Governor of Anambra State kicked against the penchant of the government to borrow from various sources without anything to show for it.

“There is nothing inherently wrong with borrowing when it is guided by prudence and directed toward productive investment, he noted, stressing that countries such as Japan, the United Kingdom, the United States, the United Arab Emirates, Singapore, and Indonesia are all heavily indebted, yet their borrowings are largely channelled into education, healthcare, infrastructure, and innovation – sectors that generate long-term economic returns and sustain repayment capacity.”

According to him, “despite high debt levels, their obligations remain more manageable because they are tied to measurable productivity.”

He said, “Nigeria’s situation, however, is markedly different. A huge proportion of past borrowing has been directed toward consumption, with limited visible or sustainable developmental outcomes to justify the scale of indebtedness.”

“It is also important to note that a huge portion of the debt currently being serviced was accumulated under the Tinubu administration itself, while borrowing has continued at a significant pace. The administration’s recent external borrowing alone includes about $6 billion (from First Abu Dhabi Bank in the UAE—$5 billion, and UK Export Finance via Citibank London—$1 billion), a further $1.25 billion under consideration from the World Bank, and an additional $516 million arranged through Deutsche Bank, bringing the latest known external loan commitments to roughly $7.8 billion. In addition, domestic borrowing through monthly bond issuances continues to add to the overall debt stock,” the businessman also stated.

“Against this backdrop, Nigeria’s 2026 budget shows that health is N2.46 trillion, education is N2.56 trillion, and poverty alleviation is N865 billion, giving a combined total of about N5.885 trillion for these three critical sectors.

“By comparison, debt servicing at about $11.6 billion (approximately N17–N18 trillion, depending on exchange rate assumptions) is almost three times higher than the total allocation to health, education, and social protection combined. This imbalance highlights a troubling fiscal reality in which debt obligations increasingly crowd out investment in human capital and poverty reduction.

“Moreover, even within the limited allocations to these sectors, funds may not be fully released, and a significant portion of what is eventually released could be misappropriated,” he further stated.

Mr Obi said, “The central issue is not borrowing itself, but whether borrowed funds are being converted into measurable productivity, inclusive growth, and improved living standards. Without this, debt servicing shifts from being a temporary fiscal obligation to a long-term structural burden that constrains development and deepens economic vulnerability.”

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