Economy
Nigeria Still Safe to Borrow Additional N7.9trn—FSDH
By Dipo Olowookere
Some days ago, the Debt Management Office (DMO) released the public debt profile of the country and from their report, Nigeria’s debt stood at N24.4 trillion as at December 31, 2018.
The release of the report stirred another debate in the country, with different stakeholders appealing to federal government to reduce its borrowings.
But analysts at FSDH Research have said Nigeria still has room to borrow an additional N7.89 trillion before reaching a threshold of about N32 trillion.
In its report released this week, which was obtained by Business Post, the Lagos-based investment company said based on the fact that the public debt-to-GDP ratio of Nigeria, Africa’s largest economy, was still under 20 percent, precisely 18.89 percent, it can still get more loans to reach the 25 percent benchmark set for itself and the 56 percent international threshold set for countries in Nigeria’s peer group.
FSDH Research argued that countries like China, South Africa, India, UK and USA all have high debt-to-Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of over 50 percent, but stressed that they have successfully managed to deploy their borrowings into activities that can stimulate revenue generation including education, transportation, construction, security, technology, and other growth-enhancing infrastructure.
“By utilizing these borrowed funds in areas that improve the ease of doing business in their countries, they have been able to grow their economies further, create job opportunities, and create more avenues for their governments to grow their revenue,” the report said.
It advised the Nigerian government to diversify its revenue and create multiple sources so as to change the present narrative.
“Just as FSDH Research has suggested several times in our previous reports, there is an urgent need to expand the revenue base of the country through the growth of the non-oil sector.
“We suggest that the government should adopt strategies to increase and broaden its revenue. Some of these strategies include an increase in the tax base of the country (apart from an increase in the tax rate), removal of all administrative delays in obtaining licences and approvals (including titles to landed properties for building and agricultural purposes), the sale of unprofitable government assets and, removal of subsidies on electricity and Premium Motor Spirit (PMS).
“In addition, we emphasize that borrowing should be tied to specific projects that can improve the competitiveness of the country, such as the FGN Sukuk Bond.
“To conclude, as individuals and business entities in Nigeria, we can help government generate more revenue by paying our taxes and other dues as and when due. And government must surely reciprocate with the provision of appropriate facilities that will make life better for all,” it said.
Read the full report below
Have you ever had to borrow money and accumulate debt? Some individuals believe that debt is bad and as a result they live within their limited resources. But are debts really bad? Now, imagine that you run a chocolate-production business and you receive a large order to supply chocolates to a big customer who will surely pay you after supply.
After considering your resources, you find out that you do not have sufficient funds to purchase the raw materials required to produce the chocolates.
You are then faced with a decision to either borrow money from a willing lender to finance the operation and make your money later or not to borrow and lose the business. What will you do? It is your choice to make but borrowing is definitely a better option if the money is used for productive activities that have the capacity to pay back the debt as well as its associated interest.
Just as individuals and companies are faced with the dilemma of whether or not to borrow, countries also face the same problem.
Although it is difficult to find any country that does not borrow, there are key questions each country must ask. How much debt should they contract? What projects will the debt be used for? How will the loan be repaid on top of the associated interest? Whom should they approach to lend the money? What will be the impact of the loan servicing on the country’s ability to perform her obligations to the citizens? Some countries have shown that debt is not bad in itself. What truly matters is the productivity of the debt that is contracted.
Countries such as China, South Africa, India, UK and USA have high Debt-to-Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of over 50%. Our computation shows that despite the significant increase in Nigeria’s public debt in recent years, standing at N24 trillion, Nigeria’s Public Debt-to-GDP ratio is less that 20%. Based on this measure, Nigeria could borrow more.
The countries mentioned above, however, have managed to deploy their borrowings into activities that can stimulate revenue generation including education, transportation, construction, security, technology, and other growth-enhancing infrastructure. By utilizing these borrowed funds in areas that improve the ease of doing business in their countries, they have been able to grow their economies further, create job opportunities, and create more avenues for their governments to grow their revenue.
So, you might now be thinking, maybe debt is not bad after all. But, you must not be quick to say this. The matter of public debt must be weighed carefully and thoroughly. Just as there are countries that have done well because of increased borrowing, there are other countries whose high, unsustainable debt levels have not translated into economic development.
In reviewing Nigeria’s debt profile, FSDH Research observes that the level of debt has been on the increase over the years. As at December 2018, the total public debt increased to N24.39trillion. But this is not where the issue lies.
A further analysis shows that the Public Debt-to-GDP ratio is 18.89%, which is below the 25% benchmark the Federal Government of Nigeria (FGN) sets for Nigeria and the 56% international threshold set for countries in Nigeria’s peer group.
The 25% benchmark gives Nigeria a leeway to borrow an additional N7.89 trillion given her level of GDP. But before you are quick to celebrate, there is the need to consider one very important factor: the ability of the country to service the debt without causing untold hardship on the country.
In measuring the ability of a country to service her debt obligations, we look at the ratio of domestic debt service-to-FGN FAAC allocation.
This is where the problem lies for Nigeria. Low revenue generation makes it very difficult for the FGN to meet its debt obligations without sacrificing other important responsibilities of government.
FSDH Research notes that the current high debt service to revenue structure in Nigeria is unsustainably high and the high figure is due to the low revenue of the country. Although the strategies of the Debt Management Office (DMO) in debt management and the Central Bank of Bank of Nigeria (CBN) in monetary policy administration have reduced the interest burden of the government, Nigeria needs to accelerate revenue generation to enable it to meet all her debt obligations without stress.
The way to change this narrative is for Nigeria to diversify her revenue and create multiple sources. Just as FSDH Research has suggested several times in our previous reports, there is an urgent need to expand the revenue base of the country through the growth of the non-oil sector.
We suggest that the government should adopt strategies to increase and broaden its revenue. Some of these strategies include an increase in the tax base of the country (apart from an increase in the tax rate), removal of all administrative delays in obtaining licences and approvals (including titles to landed properties for building and agricultural purposes), the sale of unprofitable government assets and, removal of subsidies on electricity and Premium Motor Spirit (PMS).
In addition, we emphasize that borrowing should be tied to specific projects that can improve the competitiveness of the country, such as the FGN Sukuk Bond.
To conclude, as individuals and business entities in Nigeria, we can help government generate more revenue by paying our taxes and other dues as and when due. And government must surely reciprocate with the provision of appropriate facilities that will make life better for all.
By Adedapo Adesanya
The Governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), Mr Yemi Cardoso, disclosed that Nigeria’s external reserves had risen to $52.5 billion, enough to finance about nine months of imports.
He disclosed this on Tuesday at the end of the 306th meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) held in Abuja, where the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) retained the benchmark interest rate at 26.50 per cent as well as the standing facilities corridor at +50/-450 basis points around the MPR.
Similarly, the Cash Reserve Requirement (CRR) was maintained at 45 per cent for Deposit Money Banks, 16 per cent for Merchant Banks, and 75 per cent for non-Treasury Single Account (TSA) public sector deposits.
Speaking on FX developments, the central banker said at the $52 billion level, the country’s external reserves were significantly above the internationally recommended threshold of three months of import cover.
On the Naira exchange rate, Mr Cardoso said the foreign exchange market had deepened and was now operating on a transparent willing-buyer, willing-seller basis.
He said the apex bank remained committed to maintaining a liquid and functional foreign exchange market, adding that daily market turnover sometimes exceeded $1 billion.
According to him, the long-term stability of the naira would depend on key economic fundamentals, including increased oil exports, foreign direct investment, and improved domestic productivity to reduce dependence on imports.
He also added that the MPC welcomed the federal government’s renewed commitment to stronger policy coordination, particularly collaboration between fiscal and monetary authorities, which he said had helped reduce the impact of the Middle East crisis on the Nigerian economy.
Mr Cardoso said members of the committee also commended efforts to improve crude oil production and urged relevant agencies to intensify reforms in other sectors, including solid minerals, to boost government revenue.
On the regulatory forbearance granted to banks during the COVID-19 period, he reiterated that this had been discontinued because it had served its purpose.
According to him, the policy had “outlived its time” and was no longer necessary in assessing the health of the banking sector.
“Forbearance, we felt, had outlived its time. Many of you will recall this is something that came as a result of COVID. And now we are in 2026; we did not see the reason why that should continue to form part of the analysis of the banking system,” he said.
Mr Cardoso explained that banks had begun recalibrating their portfolios following the end of the policy, leading to a temporary reduction in outstanding risk assets.
He, however, assured that the development was part of a transition towards a stronger and more sustainable credit environment.
“It reflects a transition to a more sustainable and better quality credit environment, which is what we all want. We don’t want unanticipated shocks that come in a boom-and-bust fashion,” he said.
By Adedapo Adesanya
The NASD Over-the-Counter (OTC) Securities Exchange extended its recent positive run by 1.17 per cent on Tuesday, July 21, triggered by appreciation seen in four bellwethers.
Leading the pack was FrieslandCampina Wamco Nigeria Plc, which added N12.00 to its value to close at N153.15 per share compared with the previous day’s N141.15 per share. NASD Plc appreciated by N1.90 to N36.00 per unit from N34.10 per unit, Food Concepts Plc improved by 23 Kobo to N2.48 per share from N2.25 per share, and Afriland Properties Plc grew by a marginal 1 Kobo to N15.01 per unit from N15.00 per unit.
As a result, the market capitalisation of the bourse increased by N30.40 billion to N2.637 trillion from Monday’s N2.606 trillion, and the NASD Security Index (NSI) gained 50.70 points to finish at 4,393.97 points, in contrast to the 4,343.27 points it ended a day earlier.
The unlisted securities exchange recorded a price loser yesterday, and it was Geo-Fluids Plc, which shed 1 Kobo to settle at N2.30 per share versus N2.31 per share.
During the trading day, the volume of securities traded by market participants on Tuesday dropped 99.4 per cent to 322,147 units from the previous day’s 52.6 million units, the value of securities dipped by 89.8 per cent to N19.4 million from the preceding session’s N191.2 million, and the number of deals contracted by 3.6 per cent to 27 deals from 28 deals.
Great Nigeria Insurance (GNI) Plc ended the day as the most traded stock by value on a year-to-date basis, with 3.4 billion units traded for N8.4 billion, followed by Infrastructure Credit Guarantee (Infracredit) Plc with 2.3 billion units transacted for N6.5 billion, and Central Securities Clearing System (CSCS) Plc with 75.4 million units exchanged for N5.3 billion.
GNI Plc also closed the day as the most traded stock by volume on a year-to-date basis, with 3.4 billion units worth N8.4 billion, followed by Infracredit Plc with 2.3 billion units valued at N6.5 billion, and Resourcery Plc with 1.1 billion units sold for N415.7 million.
By Adedapo Adesanya
The Naira gained N4.80 or 0.35 per cent against the US Dollar in the Nigerian Autonomous Foreign Exchange Market (NAFEX) on Tuesday, July 21, to trade at N1,375.31/$1, in contrast to the previous day’s N1,380.11/$1.
Also, the local currency appreciated against the Pound Sterling in the official market yesterday by N16.22 to quote at N1,857.35/£1 versus Monday’s closing price of N1,854.42/£1, and improved against the Euro by N8.17 to settle at N1,567.78/€1 compared with the previous day’s rate of N1,575.95/€1.
In the same vein, the Nigerian currency strengthened against the US Dollar by N1 at the GTBank FX counter during the session to exchange at N1,388/$1 compared with the preceding day’s rate of N1,389/$1, and maintained stability in the parallel market at N1,405/$1.
Data from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) showed that interbank FX turnover increased sharply by more than 21 per cent to $322.644 million from $266.227 million the previous day.
Interbank FX deal count also climbed to 110, from 66, as banks bid for international payments on behalf of their corporate clients increased.
Latest data from the CBN revealed external reserves topped $52 billion due to sustained FX inflows across multiple sources, including hydrocarbon sales receipts. Gross external reserves surged to $52.024 billion from $51.942 billion.
Also, the central bank retained the Monetary Policy Rate (MPR), the country’s benchmark interest rate, at 26.5 per cent as it seeks to sustain the gradual decline in inflation while shielding the economy from growing global uncertainties.
In the crypto market, benchmarked tokens fell after traders took profit, following rallies driven by a semiconductor boon which has driven crypto all month while the Japanese yen sank to its weakest level in four decades.
Bitcoin (BTC) came in flat at $65,885.77, but Cardano (ADA) slumped by 3.1 per cent to $0.1706, Solana (SOL) dropped 1.8 per cent to sell at $77.12, Binance Coin (BNB) lost 1.5 per cent to trade at $567.38, Dogecoin (DOGE) declined by 1.1 per cent to $0.0723, Ethereum (ETH) depreciated by 0.9 per cent to $1,916.21, and Ripple (XRP) dipped by 0.3 per cent to $1.13, while TRON (TRX) gained 0.7 per cent to close at $0.3286, with the US Dollar Tether (USDT) and the US Dollar Coin (USDC) flat at $1.00 each.
