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Nigeria’s GDP Rises by 2.01% in Q1 2019 as Non-Oil Contributes 90.86%

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GDP Nigeria growth

By Modupe Gbadeyanka

The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) on Monday said the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) rate of Nigeria increased by 2.01 percent year-on-year in the first quarter of 2019.

This is higher than the 1.89 percent growth rate the Africa’s largest economy recorded in the same quarter of last year.

However, relative to the preceding quarter, the fourth quarter of 2018, the real GDP growth rate declined by -0.38 percent.

According to the stats office, the general elections held across the country in the first quarter of this year may have reflected in the strongest first quarter performance observed since 2015.

The NBS said aggregate GDP in the quarter under consideration stood at N31.794 trillion in nominal terms. This aggregate was higher than in the first quarter of 2018 which recorded N28.439 trillion, representing a year on year nominal growth rate of 11.80 percent. The aggregate was, however, lower than in the preceding quarter of N35.231 trillion, by -9.75 percent.

The nominal GDP growth rate in Q1 2019 was higher than the rate recorded in Q1 2018 by 2.54 percent.

During the period under review, real GDP growth in the oil sector was -2.40 percent year-on-year in Q1 2019, indicating a decrease by -16.43 percent points relative to the rate recorded in the corresponding quarter of 2018. Growth decreased by -0.79 percent points when compared with Q4 2018 which was -1.62 percent.

Quarter-on-Quarter, the oil sector recorded a growth rate of 11.60 percent in Q1 2019. The Oil sector contributed 9.14 percent to total real GDP in Q1 2019, down from figures recorded in the corresponding period of 2018 but up compared to the preceding quarter, where it contributed 9.55 percent and 7.06 percent respectively.

The non-oil sector grew by 2.47 percent in real terms during the reference quarter. This was 1.72 percent points higher compared to the rate recorded in the same quarter of 2018 but -0.23 percent points lower than the fourth quarter of 2018. During the quarter, the sector was driven mainly by Information and communication technology.

Other drivers were Agriculture, Transportation and Storage, Trade and Construction.

In real terms, the non-oil sector contributed 90.86 percent to the nation’s GDP, higher than recorded in the first quarter of 2018 (90.45 percent) but lower than the fourth quarter of 2018 (92.94 percent).

Modupe Gbadeyanka is a fast-rising journalist with Business Post Nigeria. Her passion for journalism is amazing. She is willing to learn more with a view to becoming one of the best pen-pushers in Nigeria. Her role models are the duo of CNN's Richard Quest and Christiane Amanpour.

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Economy

Oil Market Shrinks as Supply Outlook Offsets Disruptions

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crude oil market

By Adedapo Adesanya

The oil market went down on Monday as investors balanced disruptions linked to escalating US-Venezuelan tensions with oversupply concerns and the impact of a potential Russia-Ukraine peace deal.

Brent crude futures lost 56 cents or 0.92 per cent to sell for $60.56 a barrel and the US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures depreciated by 62 cents or 1.08 per cent to close at $56.82 a barrel.

The market is closely monitoring developments and their impact on oil supply, with Reuters reporting that the US plans to intercept more ships carrying oil from Venezuela following the MV Skipper tanker seizure last week, intensifying pressure on Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro.

Venezuela’s oil exports have fallen sharply since the US seized a tanker last week and imposed fresh sanctions on shipping companies and vessels doing business with the South American oil producer.

However, despite this development – ample oil supplies continues to go China which is Venezuela’s biggest oil buyer. This is in addition to plentiful global supplies and weaker demand which are capping some of the impact of supply disruptions tied to the tanker seizure.

China has been stockpiling crude oil at a daily rate of around 1 million barrels this year. It has also been building new storage capacity. This year and next will see a total of 11 new storage sites built across the country, with a combined capacity of some 169 million barrels. By building new storage capacity, the  world’s largest importer can keep buying more crude.

Pressure also mounted on the market over progress in the US peace talks to resolve the 46 months war between Russia and Ukraine. The Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy has offered to drop his country’s aspiration to join the NATO military alliance, one of the reasons Russia says it attacked the sovereign nation in 2022.

A possible peace deal could eventually increase Russian oil supply, which is currently sanctioned by Western countries.

Adding to pressure, China’s factory output there slowed to a 15-month low in November, while retail sales grew at their weakest pace since December 2022.

J.P. Morgan Commodities Research said in a note on Saturday that oil surpluses in 2025 were expected to widen further into 2026 and 2027, as global oil supply was projected to outpace demand. Goldman Sachs sees a large surplus on the market, with WTI Crude expected to average $53 per barrel in 2026.
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Economy

BudgIT Urges Transparency as FG Defers 70% of 2025 Capital Projects to 2026

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BudgIT 40-year bonds

By Adedapo Adesanya

BudgIT, a leading civic-tech organisation promoting transparency and accountability in Nigeria’s public finance, has called on the federal government to be transparent after it deferred the implementation of 70 per cent of capital projects initially appropriated in the 2025 fiscal year to 2026.

“From our analysis, while this development is not entirely surprising, we hold cautious reservations about the implications of this decision,” it said in a statement.

The group said the deferment suggests the federal government intends to limit the number of capital projects under implementation, to use available funds more efficiently, prioritise critical projects, and reduce the long-standing problem of abandoned projects.

“In this sense, the move appears to be an attempt to retain the 2025 capital projects—many of which are based on existing economic plans and strategies—rather than introduce an entirely new set of projects in the next fiscal year.

“We view this as an effort by the federal government to restructure the sequencing of capital project implementation. Rather than rolling out a fresh budget filled with new capital projects, the government appears to be attempting a reset by carrying forward existing projects and improving implementation discipline,” it said.

BudgIT said this approach, if properly managed, could help salvage a challenging fiscal situation and strengthen budget credibility.

Recall that BudgIT has consistently raised concerns about Nigeria’s budgeting process, particularly the government’s failure to adhere to the approved budget calendar and its practice of running multiple fiscal programmes concurrently.

“We have maintained that budget timelines must be treated as sacrosanct and that unfinished but still relevant projects should be consolidated through a supplementary budget passed within the same fiscal year, rather than endlessly rolled over,” it said.

“Consequently, the continued inclusion of numerous uncoordinated and low-priority projects has bloated federal capital expenditure and increased public debt, often without clear developmental value.

“This pattern weakens the impact of capital investment, as spending decisions increasingly appear driven by project insertions rather than sound planning, prioritisation, and fiscal discipline. This is compounded by the fact that the federal government does not publish disaggregated reports on capital expenditure implementation. So, citizens are at a loss in knowing precisely what has or has not been implemented,” the statement added.

This challenge, it said, is further illustrated by developments during the 2024 fiscal year, in which the federal government extended the implementation of capital expenditure components of both the 2024 Appropriation Act and the 2024 supplementary Appropriation Act into mid-2025, and subsequently to December 2025.

“As a result, although the 2025 Appropriation Act was duly passed and assented to, it appears that only its recurrent components—such as personnel and overhead costs—were implemented in 2025. This is further evidenced by the absence of federal budget implementation reports for the 2025 period and official statements indicating that revenues from the 2025 fiscal year were used to fund the implementation of the 2024 budget.”

It revealed that it remains unclear whether the 2024 fiscal year has been formally closed.

“The recently published Q4 2024 federal budget implementation report is explicitly described as “provisional,” raising concerns about proper fiscal closure. Formal closure of fiscal accounts is essential, as failure to do so undermines financial reporting, fiscal transparency, and consolidation standards.”

In light of these, BudgIT stressed that this decision to defer capital project implementation must be robustly defended during the upcoming budget defence sessions at the National Assembly.

“The Executive arm of government must clearly demonstrate to the Legislature that this action is necessary to restore order to Nigeria’s fiscal framework and to end the damaging practice of implementing multiple budgets concurrently. By the time the annual Appropriation Act is passed by the National Assembly and transmitted for presidential assent, it is often heavily bloated with additional projects. While the National Assembly’s power to increase or decrease the budget is constitutionally recognised, BudgIT has long argued that this power has been widely abused, often disregarding fiscal planning and national development priorities.”

Commenting, BudgIT’s Deputy Country Director, Mr Vahyala Kwaga, underscored the need for discipline and clarity in implementing the deferment.

“Deferring 70 per cent of capital projects is neither a solution nor a setback on its own. What matters is whether this decision marks a clear break from the cycle of bloated budgets, overlapping fiscal years, and weak project implementation. Without strict adherence to budget timelines, proper fiscal closure, and transparent payment processes, the risk is that we simply postpone inefficiencies rather than resolve them,” Mr Kwaga said.

In addition, BudgIT urged the federal government to fully adhere to its “Bottom-Up Cash Plan” as outlined by the Federal Ministry of Finance.

“This approach—where payments are made directly to verified contractors rather than routed through MDAs—has the potential to improve efficiency and accountability in capital project implementation. The government must ensure strict compliance with payment protocols, contractor verification processes, and timely disbursement of funds.

“To this end, we call on the Ministry of Finance, the Ministry of Budget and Economic Planning, the Budget Office of the Federation, the Bureau of Public Procurement, relevant MDAs, and the President of the Federal Republic of Nigeria, Bola Ahmed Tinubu, to uphold the principles of transparency, legal compliance, and accountability in the management of public funds and public projects.

“We also encourage citizens, civil society, the private sector, and the media to actively support and scrutinise capital expenditure implementation, as the benefits of effective public spending ultimately accrue to all Nigerians.”

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Economy

SEC Authorises Extension of The Initiates N1.3bn Rights Issue

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The Initiates Plc

By Aduragbemi Omiyale

The N1.3 billion rights issue of The Initiates, which commenced on Wednesday, November 5, 2025, has been extended.

The exercise, which is on the basis of one new ordinary share for every existing five ordinary shares held as of the close of business on Friday, August 1, 2025, was scheduled to close on Friday, December 12, 2025.

However, the period of the rights issue has been stretched by an addition month, leaving the new closing date at Monday, January 12, 2026.

This extension was approved by the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), the highest regulatory agency for the Nigerian capital market.

The Initiates, which operates as an environmental and waste management organisation, is offering in the rights issue a total of 177,996,310 units of its stocks to existing shareholders at a unit price of N7.00.

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