Economy

Nigeria’s Inflation to Hit 12% in 2019—Fitch

Published

6 years ago

15/06/2019

By Dipo Olowookere

Global rating agency, Fitch Ratings, has said the path to full economic stability and recovery for the Nigerian economy is very rough.

In a statement affirming the nation’s Long-Term Foreign-Currency Issuer Default Rating (IDR) at ‘B+’, Fitch said weak party discipline in parliament and frequent disagreements between the presidency and legislature point to a continued high risk of delays to parliamentary approval of key legislation.

The rating firm said it expects policy continuity with the implementation of only piecemeal reforms, resulting in slow progress on tackling long-standing impediments to growth and weaknesses in macroeconomic management.

While it projected that inflation will average close to 12 percent in 2019-2020, well above the projected current ‘B’ median of 4.8 percent, propped up by cost-push factors, the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth is anticipated to average 2.2 percent in 2019-2020, below its previous 10-year average of 4.2 percent and the current ‘B’ median of 3.4 percent.

Business Post reports that in April 2019, according to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), the country’s inflation rose to 11.37 percent year-on-year from 11.25 percent year-on-year in March 2019.

Fitch noted that high unemployment and inflation will constrain private consumption while investment is held back by tight credit supply, a weak business climate and regulatory uncertainty in the oil sector.

It said a large infrastructure deficit, which is illustrated by acute power supply shortages and security challenges, also dampen the medium-term growth outlook.

The renowned rating agency disclosed that Nigeria’s ratings are supported by the large size of its economy, a track record of current account surpluses and a relatively low general government (GG) debt-to-GDP.

“This is balanced against poor governance and development indicators, structurally low fiscal revenues and high dependence on hydrocarbons. The rating is also weighed down by subdued GDP growth and inflation that is higher than in rating peers,” it said.

Continuing, it stated that Nigeria’s fiscal performance mostly remains a function of fluctuations in oil revenues, noting that the implicit subsidy of petrol prices (around 0.6% of GDP in 2018), the gradual clearance of joint-venture (JV) cash call arrears (outstanding stock of 1% of GDP at end-2018) and the conversion of government oil proceeds to naira at a below-market exchange rate continue to constrain budget receipts from hydrocarbon extraction.

“Fitch estimates that the GG deficit narrowed to 3.6% of GDP (federal government, FGN: 2.3% excluding transfers to state and local governments, SLGs) in 2018 from 4.5% in 2017 (FGN: 3.2%), mostly reflecting the recovery in oil prices.

“Fitch forecasts the GG deficit to widen to 3.8% of GDP (FGN: 2.6%) in 2019 and further to 4.6% in 2020 (FGN: 3%) as the rise in oil production with the coming on stream of the Egina oilfield will be offset by the decline in oil prices under our baseline. Public finances are vulnerable to disruptions to production caused by recurrent acts of vandalism or other force majeure affecting Nigeria’s aging oil infrastructure. A $10 change per barrel in the Brent oil price against our assumptions would, all else equal, impact the GG balance by around 0.6% of GDP.

“Nigeria’s particularly low non-oil fiscal revenues averaging only 3.7% of GDP over 2016-2018 are a key rating weakness, reducing the fiscal space and resulting in a high fiscal Brent breakeven price of USD129 per barrel in 2019 and USD149 in 2020, according to Fitch’s estimates. A two-thirds rise in the minimum wage entered into force in April and could cause pressures on public finances, particularly for cash-strapped SLGs, although there is high uncertainty regarding its effective implementation date and fiscal cost. The government is contemplating offsetting measures, including a VAT rate increase, which faces strong opposition across the political spectrum.

“Interest payments consumed 27% of GG revenues (FGN: 53%) in 2018 based on Fitch’s estimates, double the current ‘B’ median of 13% and will rise to 30% of revenues (FGN: 65.6%) in 2020, highlighting the risks to debt sustainability arising from low fiscal receipts. The authorities aim to contain the rise in the interest cost by substituting external concessional and commercial borrowing to onerous domestic financing. They also plan to reduce debt through partial privatisations of oil JV assets, which we do not expect to materially reduce their oil revenues.

“GG debt will rise from 25% of GDP (FGN: 20%, including central bank overdrafts) in 2018 to 28.2% of GDP (FGN: 22.4%) in 2020, still well below the projected current ‘B’ median of 56%, under Fitch’s forecasts. Around 71% of GG debt was naira-denominated at end-2018, limiting refinancing and exchange rate risks but high direct and indirect foreign holdings of local-currency debt expose Nigeria to shifts in investor sentiment and global funding conditions. The debt of the Asset Management Corporation of Nigeria (AMCON) of 3.2% of GDP at end-2018 constitutes a contingent liability for the sovereign, and could rise in the context of high non-performing loans in the banking sector of 11.7% of total bank loans and an elevated proportion of restructured loans,” a statement from the agency said.

Economy

Unlisted Securities in Nigeria Down 0.41%

Published

21 minutes ago

15/04/2025

Adedapo Adesanya

By Adedapo Adesanya

The NASD Over-the-Counter (OTC) Securities Exchange opened the week on a sad note after it depreciated by 0.41 per cent on Monday, April 14.

The loss was influenced by the decline in the share price of Central Securities Clearing System (CSCS) Plc during the session by N1.80 to close at N20.90 per unit compared with the N22.70 per unit it closed last Friday.

This brought down the market capitalisation of the trading platform by N7.78 billion to N1.911 trillion from N1.919 trillion as the NASD Unlisted Security Index (NSI) was also pulled down by 13.28 points to 3,264.29 points from the previous session’s 3,277.57 points.

Business Post reports that the bourse crumbled yesterday despite two securities on the platform finishing on the gainers’ chart.

UBN Property Plc appreciated by 19 Kobo on Monday to sell for N2.17 per share versus the preceding session’s N1.98 per share, and FrieslandCampina Wamco Nigeria Plc gained 8 Kobo to settle at N35.63 per unit, in contrast to last Friday’s N35.55 per unit.

Yesterday, there was a 99.7 per cent decline in the volume of securities traded by the market participants to 436,357 units from the 152.3 million units recorded in the previous trading day.

There was also a 99.8 per cent fall in the value of transactions to N10.1 million from N4.6 billion, while the number of deals increased by 218.8 per cent to 51 deals from 16 deals.

At the close of business, Impresit Bakolori Plc remained the most active stock by volume (year-to-date) with 533.9 million units valued at N520.9 million, trailed by Okitipupa Plc with 153.6 million units worth N4.9 billion, and Industrial and General Insurance (IGI) Plc with 71.2 million units sold for N24.2 million.

Okitipupa Plc was the most traded stock by value (year-to-date) with 153.6 million worth N4.9 billion, followed by FrieslandCampina Wamco Nigeria Plc with 14.7 million units sold for N566.9 million, and Impresit Bakolori Plc with 533.9 million units valued at N520.9 million.

Economy

Fears of CBEX Crashing Trigger Looting of Offices in Ibadan, Others

Published

41 minutes ago

15/04/2025

Aduragbemi Omiyale

By Aduragbemi Omiyale

Offices of a popular Ponzi scheme operator, CBEX, in Ibadan and a few other places in Nigeria have been looted by some aggrieved investors.

This followed news that the company has shut down its services, with funds of several investors trapped.

Last week, there were speculations that CBEX has crashed following the inability of members to withdraw their funds.

The company quickly dispelled this, noting that it locked the wallets of its investors because of the bonuses gifted members, which must be used for trading before withdrawal.

CBEX, thereafter, assured that from Tuesday, April 15, 2025, members of the Ponzi scheme would be able to withdraw their funds without ease.

However, on Monday, it was gathered that funds in the accounts of investors were wiped off, with a notice to members that they would only be access their money upon the payment of a reactivation fee, a similar pattern of other defunct operators.

“All accounts need to undergo the following verification steps to ensure their authenticity.

“For accounts with funds below $1,000 before any losses, a deposit of $100 is required.

“For accounts with funds exceeding $1,000, a deposit of $200 is required.

“Additionally, please keep your deposit receipts to ensure you can prove the authenticity of the account during future withdrawal reviews,” the message from CBEX stated.

This development shattered the hopes of some investors, triggering a looting spree of the company’s offices.

Some videos of the internet showed moments some irate youth stormed the Ibadan office of the organisation, carting away with some valuables, including office items and others.

Many Nigerians have expressed shock at the level of acceptance of the Ponzi scheme in the country despite the harrowing experience of MMM some years ago.

Business Post reports that some weeks ago, a similar Ponzi scheme operator, Cheersway, went away with investors’ funds after it claimed its platform was hacked.

Just like CBEX, it asked members to pay a reactivation fee of their exact level, which ranges from $50, $150, $400, and $1,000, to have access to their money, but most of those who paid were never granted any access until the company folded up.

Also, those who invested in a new investment vehicle it came up with, TikTok Shop, could not receive their capital and return-on-investment as promised.

It later assured investors that it would move them to a new company established last month known as C&P Capital, noting that they would get their funds back after the new organisation makes profit, probably after two years of operations.

Economy

Naira Strengthens to N1,605/$1 at NAFEM, N1,615/$1 at Black Market

Published

1 hour ago

15/04/2025

Adedapo Adesanya

By Adedapo Adesanya

The Naira further strengthened against the US Dollar at the Nigerian Autonomous Foreign Exchange Market (NAFEX) on Monday, April 14, by N5.83 or 0.36 per cent to settle at N1,605.25/$1, in contrast to the N1,611.08/$1 it was traded in the previous session, which was last Friday.

Equally, the local currency appreciated against the Pound Sterling in the official FX market during the session by N34.55 to quote at N2,056.03/£1 versus the preceding trading day’s value of N2,090.58/£1 and gained N45.66 on the Euro to finish at N1,770.14/€1 compared with the N1,815.82/€1 it was exchanged in the previous trading session.

In the same vein, the domestic currency improved its exchange rate against the Dollar yesterday by N5 in the black market to sell for N1,615/$1 compared with the preceding session’s N1,620/$1.

The pressure on the Nigerian currency eased on Monday as tariffs from the United States were paused, and recent signals showed that the government was complementing efforts to stabilise the market via adequate liquidity and supporting orderly market functioning.

A look at the cryptocurrency market showed a mixed outcome as President Donald Trump of the United States, after pausing sweeping global tariffs, made some concessions on electronics imports.

Further easing concerns was the European Commission, the executive arm of the EU, confirming to hold off on retaliatory tariffs on US goods worth €21 billion until July 14 to allow space for negotiations.

The US Federal Reserve also signalled that a return of the original punitive Mr Trump tariffs would trigger the need for sizable “bad news” rate cuts.

Dogecoin (DOGE) depreciated yesterday by 3.5 per cent to sell at $0.1593, Solana (SOL) which lost 1.2 per cent to trade at $130.99, Litecoin (LTC) went down by 0.6 per cent to $77.74, and Cardano (ADA) dropped 0.3 per cent to close at $0.6405.

On the flip side, Bitcoin (BTC) grew by 1.2 per cent to $85,435.17, Ethereum (ETH) rose by 0.9 per cent to $1,636.35, Ripple (XRP) appreciated by 0.5 per cent to $2.14, and Binance Coin (BNB) went up by 0.08 per cent to $588.65, while the US Dollar Tether (USDT) and the US Dollar Coin (USDC) remained unchanged at $1.00 apiece.