Economy
Forte Oil Liquidity Position Relatively Weak—GCR
By Dipo Olowookere
A local credit rating agency, Global Credit Ratings (GCR), has described the liquidity position of an indigenous energy firm, Forte Oil Plc, as “relatively weak.”
In a statement issued by the rating company, the short term rating of Forte Oil was downgraded to A2(NG), with the outlook accorded as stable.
GCR explained that the weak liquidity as well as the company’s low debt service coverage and significant budget underperformance contributed to the one-notch downgrade of the short-term rating.
However, a long term national scale ratings were assigned to Forte Oil at A-(NG), with its issue rating of A-(NG) concurrently affirmed and the outlook accorded as stable.
It was explained that the ratings factor Forte Oil’s strong market presence in the Nigerian downstream oil industry as the firm owns significant assets across the value chain with an extensive distribution and retail network, supported by long-term relationships with suppliers, and an experienced management team.
In the first half of 2019, Forte Oil successfully divested from its power business and other subsidiaries and given the persistent cash flow challenges, the subsidiaries were a substantial drain on the core business and were partly responsible for the elevated gearing.
GCR said excluding the power business, gross debt from continuing operations fell to N18.7 billion in FY18 (FY17: N34.8 billion). This translated into a much lower net debt to EBITDA of 423 percent at FY18, but still well above forecasts.
The metrics deteriorated further to 662 percent in 5M FY19. Without the power business working capital pressure is also expected to ease, which will contribute to lower gearing.
In addition, Forte Oil plans to utilise proceeds from the sale to reduce debt. GCR said the assigned ratings are thus premised on a sustained reduction in earnings based gearing to below 70 percent over the medium term and reach a net ungeared position by FY21.
GCR stated in the released that the high short-term maturities (70 percent of total debt), are reflective of the short-term nature of fuel inventories, but cash holdings are very low, offering no buffer against debt maturities.
“Some comfort is taken from Forte Oil’s strong banking relationships, and the N13 billion unutilised credit facilities.
“The imminent maturity of the federal government’s irrevocable unconditional promissory note should also somewhat bolster liquidity,” the rating agency said.
It noted that excluding the power business (28 percent of revenue in FY17), Forte Oil still demonstrates strong revenue generating capacity, underpinned by the ongoing retail expansion and aggressive marketing initiatives.
However, the remaining business reports an inherently lower profit margin, due to the high cost environment, amid tight regulation of premium motor spirit (PMS) (70 percent of total revenue).
“This, coupled with high finance costs, saw net interest coverage narrow to a low 1.6x in FY18 (FY17: 3.1x), which shrank further to 0.5x in 5M FY19,” the statement obtained by Business Post said.
In the medium to long term, Forte Oil plans to strengthen its margins through increased fuel volumes and a focus on higher margin lubes and greases.
GCR stressed that a rating uplift is dependent on demonstrated reduction in debt and a significant ramping up of volumes and margins (in line with targets).
“Conversely, persistently high gearing metrics post the sale, as well as poor interest coverage, could negatively impact the rating,” it noted.
Economy
OPEC Crude Output Falls to 37-Year Low Amid Iran Disruptions
By Adedapo Adesanya
Crude production under the collective Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC ) fell in May to its lowest level in at least 37 years as the blockade of Iran by the United States and disruptions in the Persian Gulf, continued to limit output.
According to a Bloomberg survey released on Friday, output from the organisation’s 11 current members, including Nigeria, dropped by 1.22 million barrels per day to 16.33 million barrels per day last month.
Iran accounted for more than half of the decline. The data excludes the United Arab Emirates (UAE), which departed the cartel last month after six decades of membership.
War between a US-Israeli alliance and Iran has reduced oil supplies from the Middle East, largely closing the Strait of Hormuz waterway. Saudi Arabia, Iraq, the UAE and Kuwait have been forced to cut crude production. Iranian shipments face additional pressure following a US blockade of its ports imposed in mid-April.
Iranian output fell by 710,000 barrels per day to a five-year low of 2.34 million barrels per day in May, the survey showed. Central Command reported that US forces have redirected 127 commercial vessels to enforce the blockade of all maritime traffic entering and exiting Iranian ports.
Kuwait recorded the second-largest decline last month, with production falling by 310,000 barrels per day to 490,000 barrels per day, less than one-fifth of pre-war levels. Saudi Arabia, the group’s leader, saw output decrease by 240,000 barrels per day to 6.57 million barrels per day.
The production reductions have not prevented OPEC and its allies from raising quotas over recent months, continuing a year-long process of restoring output halted several years ago.
This comes ahead of a meeting scheduled to be held on Sunday, June 7, where a sub-group of seven members is expected to increase targets by 188,000 barrels again in July. The session is one of four online meetings OPEC and its partners plan to hold that day.
Delegates indicated the alliance has plans for two additional monthly quota increases in August and September. UAE output rose by 300,000 barrels per day to 2.44 million barrels per day in May, according to the survey.
Economy
Debt Repayments: FG Overshoots Budget Allocation by 18%
By Aduragbemi Omiyale
The 2025 third quarter Budget Implementation Report from the Budget Office of the Federation has shown that the federal government exceeded the funds allocation for repayment of debts for the first nine months of the fiscal year by about 18 per cent.
In a report by Punch, the sum of N10.74 trillion was budgeted for debt servicing between January and September 2025, but the government used N12.63 trillion for the purpose, N1.90 trillion or 17.65 per cent more than the allocation for the year.
The funds were spent on domestic debts, foreign debts and sinking fund by the central government in nine months.
Business Post reports that for the whole year, the amount approved by the National Assembly and signed by President Bola Tinubu for debt repayments was N14.31 trillion.
Looking at the nine-month figures, domestic debt service gulped N6.23 trillion, exceeding its N5.39 trillion provision, while foreign debt service was N6.30 trillion versus the budget provision of N5.06 trillion.
According to the report, the figures indicated that 67.2 per cent of the federal government’s retained revenue of N18.63 trillion was spent on debt service in the first nine months of 2025. When the sinking fund is included, debt-related payments consumed about 67.8 per cent of revenue.
It was also observed that aggregate federal government revenue underperformed the budget by N12.03 trillion or 39.24 per cent, as actual revenue of N18.63 trillion fell short of the N30.67 trillion projected for the first three quarters.
In the third quarter alone, the government generated N7.70 trillion versus the quarterly target of N10.22 trillion as a result of persistent oil revenue shortfalls, despite stronger non-oil collections.
The debt burden also crowded out capital spending, as total capital expenditure was N3.10 trillion in the first nine months compared with the N17.58 trillion budgeted for the period, indicating that actual debt-related payments were more than four times capital expenditure.
Economy
Unlisted Stock Investors’ Wealth Shrinks N30bn
By Adedapo Adesanya
The NASD Over-the-Counter (OTC) Securities Exchange recorded a loss of 1.13 per cent on Thursday, June 4, shrinking the market capitalisation by N30.03 billion to N2.630 trillion from N2.660 trillion on Wednesday.
Similarly, this brought down the NASD Unlisted Security Index (NSI) by 50.19 points to 4,396.08 points from the 4,446.27 points recorded a day earlier.
The loss was influenced by the overpowering of the bulls by the bears, after the bourse closed with two price gainers and three price losers, led by FrieslandCampina Wamco Nigeria Plc, which slumped by N20.03 to sell at N190.38 per unit compared with midweek’s N210.41 per unit. Food Concepts Plc declined by 25 Kobo to trade at N2.50 per share versus the previous day’s N3.00 per share, and Acorn Petroleum Plc crumbled by 2 Kobo to end at N1.32 per unit, in contrast to the preceding session’s N1.34 per unit.
For the gainers, Central Securities Clearing System (CSCS) Plc added N2.93 to close at N78.34 per share compared with the previous price of N75.41 per share, and Afriland Properties Plc gained 80 Kobo to settle at N16.80 per unit versus N16.00 per unit.
There was a slip in the volume of transactions yesterday by 46.8 per cent to 280,714 units from 527,221 units, as the value of trades dropped 66.5 per cent to N21.8 million from the preceding session’s N64.2 million, and the number of deals fell by 8.7 per cent to 42 deals from 46 deals.
Great Nigeria Insurance (GNI) Plc ended the session as the most traded stock by value on a year-to-date basis with 3.4 billion units worth N8.4 billion, followed by Infrastructure Credit Guarantee (Infracredit) Plc with 2.3 billion units sold for N6.5 billion, and CSCS Plc with 64.7 million units traded for N4.4 billion.
GNI Plc also finished the day as the most traded stock by volume on a year-to-date basis with 3.4 billion units valued at N8.4 billion, followed by Infracredit Plc with 2.3 billion units exchanged for N6.5 billion, and Resourcery Plc with 1.1 billion units transacted for N415.7 million.
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