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Nigerian Consumers Expect Rise in Inflation, Naira—CBN Survey

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By Adedapo Adesanya

The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has released its Consumer Expectations Survey (CES) for the third quarter (Q3) of 2019. In the report analysed by Business Post, it was discovered that consumers have a positive outlook for the next 12 months.

The survey also showed that most respondents expect the Naira to appreciate within the period as well as a possible increase in the nation’s inflation rate. But they expect the borrowing rate to fall.

The survey, according to the apex bank, was conducted during the between September 16 – 27, and covered a sample size of 2,070 households drawn from 207 Enumeration Areas (EAs) across Nigeria, with a response rate of 98.3 percent.

It was discovered that consumers’ overall confidence outlook rose in the quarter under review, and this was attributed to more consumers showing optimism in their positive outlook rose to 22.8 and 31.5 points, respectively. The index rose to 3.8 points indicating 2.3 points increase from the index in the corresponding period of 2018.

Respondents also expect that prices of goods and services will rise in the next 12 months, with an index of 25.0 points driven by purchase of appliances/ consumer durables, savings, education, purchase of car/motor vehicle, purchase of house and transportation.

The unemployment index for the next 12 months also remained positive at 21.8 points in the reviewed quarter, this means that consumers generally expect the unemployment rate to rise in the next one year.

Looking at the country’s Borrowing and Exchange Rate Outlook which are put at -6.2 and 13.9 points respectively, it was shown that consumers hope the borrowing rate will reduce and were hopeful for the local currency to appreciate in the next one year.

When asked about the ideal time to buy big ticket items such as consumer durables, motor vehicles, houses among others, majority of respondents indicated that the current quarter was not ideal to purchase, as it stood at 30.3 points.

Also, looking at the next 12 months, Overall buying intention index was pegged at 36.2 index points, this also indicated that most consumers do not intend to buy big ticket items in the next one year.

An index above 50 means more respondents indicated that it is a good time to buy assets; below 50 means more respondents believe that it would not be an appropriate time to make those purchases; and 50 means the number of respondents on both sides is equal.

Looking at the sampled population, Respondents’ distribution by educational attainment showed that 7.3 percent had university education, 11.7 per cent had higher non-university education, while 27.8 per cent had senior secondary school education.

Respondents with junior secondary and primary school education accounted for 5.0 and 19.3 percent, respectively, while those with no formal education accounted for the balance of 28.9 percent.

Adedapo Adesanya is a journalist, polymath, and connoisseur of everything art. When he is not writing, he has his nose buried in one of the many books or articles he has bookmarked or simply listening to good music with a bottle of beer or wine. He supports the greatest club in the world, Manchester United F.C.

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Economy

Index Gains 0.63% as Value of Nigerian Exchange Crosses N60trn

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Nigerian Exchange Limited

By Dipo Olowookere

For the fourth consecutive trading session, the Nigerian Exchange (NGX) Limited closed higher on Friday by 0.63 per cent on sustained renewed buying pressure.

Apart from the energy and industrial goods sectors which closed flat, every other sector ended in the green territory, according to data obtained from the bourse.

Business Post reports that the insurance index appreciated by 1.52 per cent, the banking space improved by 0.63 per cent, and the consumer goods counter expanded by 0.46 per cent.

As a result, the All-Share Index (ASI) gained 617.47 points to settle at 99,378.06 points compared with the preceding day’s 98,760.59 points and the market capitalisation went up by 375 billion to close at N60.242 trillion, in contrast to Thursday’s closing value of N59.867 trillion.

The volume of transactions on Customs Street yesterday grew by 11.13 per cent to 544.2 million shares from the 489.7 million shares transacted a day earlier.

The value of transactions increased during the session by 49.30 per cent to N10.6 billion from N7.1 billion and the number of deals went up by 1.93 per cent to 8,464 deals from the 8,304 deals posted in the previous trading session.

The busiest equity for the trading day was Japaul with the sale of 71.7 million units valued at N158.0 million, eTranzact exchanged 70.7 million units worth N477.5 million, Tantalizers sold 57.3 million units for N101.2 million, FCMB traded 33.0 million units worth N297.3 million, and Universal Insurance transacted 27.1 million units valued at N9.6 million.

A total of 36 stocks ended on the gainers’ chart, while 15 stocks finished on the losers’ table, indicating a positive market breadth index and strong investor sentiment.

The trio of Aradel Holdings, Ikeja Hotel and Caverton gained 10.00 per cent each to trade at N550.00, N8.80, and N1.98, respectively, as Africa Prudential rose by 9.87 per cent to N17.25 and Golden Guinea Breweries soared by 9.64 per cent to N8.64.

On the flip side, Austin Laz lost 10.00 per cent to close at N1.62, ABC Transport crashed by 8.00 per cent to N1.15, Royal Exchange slumped by 7.69 per cent to 60 Kobo, Secure Electronic Technology plunged by 5.26 per cent to 54 Kobo, and The Initiates crumbled by 4.26 per cent to N2.25.

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Economy

Oil Jumps on Fresh Sanctions Amid Ease in Interest Rates, Demand Boost

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By Adedapo Adesanya

Oil climbed by about 2 per cent on Friday on expectations that additional sanctions on Russia and Iran could tighten supplies and that lower interest rates in Europe and the US could boost fuel demand.

Brent futures went up by $1.08 or 1.5 per cent to settle at $74.49 a barrel and the US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures expanded by $1.27 or 1.8 per cent to close at $71.29 per barrel.

European Union ambassadors agreed to impose a 15th package of sanctions on Russia this week over its war against Ukraine, targeting its shadow tanker fleet.

The sanctions would target vessels from third countries supporting Russia’s war in Ukraine and add more individuals and entities to the sanctions list.

The sanctions package is likely to be formally adopted at a meeting of EU foreign ministers on Monday and will target close to 30 entities, over 50 individuals and 45 tankers.

Also, the US is considering similar moves that might target some Russian oil exports, before Donald Trump returns to the White House.

Britain, France and Germany told the United Nations Security Council they were ready if necessary to trigger a so-called “snap back” of all international sanctions on Iran to prevent the country from acquiring nuclear weapons.

The move comes as Iran has suffered a series of strategic setbacks, including Israel’s assault on Tehran’s proxy militias Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon and the ouster of Iranian ally Bashar al-Assad in Syria.

Meanwhile, data from China this week showed that crude imports in the world’s top importer grew annually in November for the first time in seven months.

There are expectations that China’s crude imports will remain elevated into early 2025 as refiners opt to lift more supply from top exporter Saudi Arabia, drawn by lower prices, while independent refiners rush to use their quota.

The International Energy Agency (IEA) increased its forecast for 2025 global oil demand growth to 1.1 million barrels per day from 990,000 barrels per day last month, citing China’s stimulus measures.

The Paris-based energy watchdog forecast an oil surplus for next year, when nations not in the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and allies, OPEC+ group, are set to boost supply by about 1.5 million barrels per day, driven by Argentina, Brazil, Canada, Guyana and the US.

The United Arab Emirates (UAE), an OPEC member, plans to reduce oil shipments early next year as OPEC+ seeks tighter discipline.

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Economy

Seplat to Boost Nigeria’s Oil Production With Mobil Assets Acquisition

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Seplat Energy

By Adedapo Adesanya

Seplat Energy Plc will revive hundreds of Nigerian oil wells laying fallow after completing the acquisition of Mobil Producing Nigeria Unlimited (MPNU) from ExxonMobil.

The company said it aims to lift oil output to about 200,000 barrels a day, a move that will help boost Nigeria’s oil production levels, as it aims to reach 2 million barrels per day next year.

The transaction, according to Seplat, “is transformative for Seplat Energy, more than doubling production and positioning the company to drive growth and profitability, whilst contributing significantly to Nigeria’s future prosperity.”

The completion of the Seplat-ExxonMobil deal has created Nigeria’s leading independent energy company, with the enlarged company having equity in 11 blocks (onshore and shallow water Nigeria); 48 producing oil and gas fields; 5 gas processing facilities; and 3 export terminals.

Recall that the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) in October approved the deal as part of a series of approvals, while it blocked Shell’s asset sale of up to $2.4 billion to the Renaissance consortium.

The acquisition of the entire issued share capital of MPNU adds the following assets to the Seplat Group: 40 per cent operated interest in OML 67, 68, 70 and 104; 40 per cent operated interest in the Qua Iboe export terminal and the Yoho FSO; 51 per cent operated interest in the Bonny River Terminal (‘BRT’) NGL recovery plant; 9.6 per cent participating interest in the Aneman-Kpono field; and approximately 1,000 staff and 500 contractors will transition to the Seplat Group.

MPNU adds substantial reserves and production to Seplat Energy; 409 million barrels of oil equivalent (MMboe) 2P reserves and 670 MMboe 2P + 2C reserves and resources as at 30 June 2024 and 6M 2024 average daily production of 71.4 kboepd (thousand barrels of oil equivalent).

Business Post reports that Seplat will be part of the payment this year, and will defer some to next year,

Speaking on the transaction, the Chairman of Seplat Energy, Mr Udoma Udo Udoma commended President Bola Tinubu for supporting this transaction and appreciated the support and diligence of the various ministries and regulators for all the work to reach a successful conclusion.

“We are delighted to welcome the MPNU employees to Seplat Energy. We are excited to begin our journey in a new region of the country, and we look forward to replicating the positive impacts we have achieved within our communities in our current areas of operations.

“Seplat’s mission is to deliver value to all our stakeholders, and we treasure the good relationships we have developed with the government, regulators, communities and our staff.”

On his part, the chief executive of Seplat Energy, Mr Roger Brown, described the acquisition as a major milestone, adding, “I extend my thanks to the entire Seplat team for their hard work and perseverance to complete this transaction.

“MPNU’s employees and contractors have a strong reputation for safety and operational excellence, and I welcome them to the Seplat Energy Group.

“We have acquired a company with one of the best portfolios of assets and related infrastructure in a world-class basin, providing enormous potential for the Seplat Group. Our commitment is to invest to increase oil and gas production while reducing costs and emissions, maximising value for all our stakeholders.

“MPNU is a perfect fit with our strategy to build a sustainable business that can deliver affordable, accessible and reliable energy for Nigeria alongside attractive returns to our shareholders”.

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