General
The Impact of COVID-19 on Finance and Investment in Africa
By Morne van der Merwe and Wildu du Plessis
The Coronavirus (COVID-19) has resulted in mass production shutdowns and supply chain disruptions due to port closures in China, causing global ripple effects across all economic sectors in a rare “twin supply-demand shock”.
With South Africa having just reported its first cases of COVID-19, Africa is beginning to feel its full impact and plans to control and manage the humanitarian challenges of the virus are underway across the continent.
Economically, the effects have already been felt – demand for Africa’s raw materials and commodities in China has declined and Africa’s access to industrial components and manufactured goods from the region has been hampered. This is causing further uncertainty in a continent already grappling with widespread geopolitical and economic instability.
The number of cases is reportedly slowing down in China, increasing expectations that it will eventually reach a plateau and be brought under control. However, in early March the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development noted that “annual global GDP growth is projected to drop to 2.4% in 2020 as a whole, from an already weak 2.9% in 2019, with growth possibly even being negative in the first quarter of 2020”, with global markets plunging in the days thereafter.
Although Chinese growth will fall in the short term, it is expected to rebound quickly, some suggesting this could even happen in the second quarter of 2020 when the virus will hopefully be contained. In the meantime, central banks are implementing measures to mitigate the effects of the virus on the economy, cutting interest rates and injecting liquidity into the banking systems in some countries.
In early March, the World Bank announced it would commit $12 billion in aid to developing countries to help them to deal with the impact of the virus and limit its spread.
The bank said it would prioritise the most at-risk countries. The World Bank also introduced a pandemic bond in 2017, which, as part of the Pandemic Emergency Finance Facility intended to provide money to help developing countries in the event of a pandemic reaching certain thresholds and conditions. So far, these criteria have not been met and the bond has not paid out.
Uncertainty regarding the spread of COVID-19 is high and its impact on Africa is expected to be serious, given the continent’s exposure to China. So far, cases have been reported in Algeria, Cameroon, Egypt, Morocco, Nigeria, Senegal, South Africa, Togo and Tunisia. If there is a widespread outbreak of COVID-19 in Africa it could overwhelm already weak healthcare systems in the region.
According to ratings agency, Fitch, the Coronavirus outbreak will have a downside risk for short term growth for sub-Saharan African growth, particularly in Ghana, Angola, Congo, Equatorial Guinea, Zambia, South Africa, Gabon and Nigeria – all countries that export large amounts of commodities to China.
Impact on Merger & Acquisition activity
Africa has come through a period of prolonged political and economic uncertainty, but signs of future economic improvement, were pointing to a modest increase in M&A activity in Africa over the next few years. COVID-19 is likely to hamper this predicted upturn and result in increased short-term uncertainty in terms of how it will affect investment opportunities in Africa, the continent’s productivity and consumer demand.
There are other transactional risks. If the virus spreads rapidly in Africa, countries might have to introduce similar measures to those taken in China where areas were locked down, factories were shut, quarantines enforced and travel bans imposed.
As such, these events could potentially be significant enough to trigger a change to the terms of an M&A transaction currently in progress, and deals could be delayed as a result. COVID-19 conditions could also cause delays to M&A due diligence, necessary for a transaction to progress to finalisation. Further, the virus could qualify as a force majeure event causing more delays or terminations.
We are hopeful the rebound from COVID-19 will coincide with the implementation of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) in July 2020, which should provide an additional boost to deal activity in Africa the coming years. The AfCFTA is the first continent-wide African trade agreement, with the potential to facilitate and harmonise trade and infrastructure development in Africa. This boost to the investment environment will be welcome after the additional uncertainty of dealing with COVID-19 impacts.
Impact on Capital raising and IPOs
African issuers have been waiting several years for an improvement to political and economic instability in Africa before going ahead with any planned capital raising. As a case in point, Baker McKenzie’s Global Transactions Forecast showed that there were no IPOs in South Africa in 2019.
Also eroding investor confidence were the numerous global trade tensions, with capital raisers watching for signs of resolution before launching IPOs. With Africa looking to benefit from new global and regional trade agreements, the forecasts had been pointing to a potential recovery in capital markets in the next few years, but this might be delayed as the uncertainty around the impact of COVID-19 in Africa reaches its peak.
IPOs in the region are therefore expected to decline, not directly because of the virus as is the case with equities, but because COVID-19 will have an effect on the underlying business case for IPO companies, which will impact on their ability to raise capital
Impact on financial institutions
Global financial institutions are currently assessing the impact of COVID-19 and reacting to its economic impact, ensuring they are able to adjust to new and unprecedented circumstances brought about by the virus. It remains to be seen whether the huge global economic downturn caused by decreased output in China will impact on African lenders and compel financial institutions on the continent to be more lenient towards borrowers and cut them some slack.
Impact on Local Markets
Since global economic growth is a key driver of commodity prices, local prices have been driven down by the virus’s global impact. The uncertainty of the impact of COVID-19 on local markets is expected to lead to increased risk aversion from investors who are waiting to see its potential impact in Africa. On the plus side, a temporary fall in share prices provides opportunities for prudent investors.
Impact of the Insurance sector
Both businesses and individuals in Africa might find they are uninsured for any COVID-19 impacts as losses related to an epidemic or pandemic would usually not be covered in insurance policies, irrespective of whether the insurance covers business interruption, property damage, product losses or personal life and non-life insurance or even travel insurance.
As COVID-19 is a new disease, it would not have been specifically listed in existing insurance contracts. Many business interruption policies will include clauses for extended damage, but it is unlikely that these extensions will provide coverage under the current circumstances. As such, the wording of policies should be carefully checked.
Some insurance companies who provide cancelled event coverage that specifically includes references to epidemics or pandemics could be impacted. Reuters reported that financial services firm Jefferies estimated the insured cost of the Tokyo Olympics to be around USD 2 billion – including television rights, hospitality and sponsorship.
Morne van der Merwe, Managing Partner, and Wildu du Plessis, Head of Africa, Baker McKenzie Johannesburg
General
Power Outage in Nigeria as National Grid Collapses
By Aduragbemi Omiyale
Nigeria is currently experience a cut in power supply after the national grid collapsed for the 11th time in 2024.
This is the first time in over a month as the last time the nation witnessed a nationwide shut down in electricity supply was on November 7, 2024.
Before then, the country was experiencing an incessant collapse of the grid, which prompted the federal government to set up a team to address the issue.
However, just when Nigerians were thinking they will not witnessed another national grid collapse in the year, it issue reared its ugly head again.
On Wednesday afternoon, most of the energy distribution companies suffered power outage, prompting them to inform their customers of the situation.
One of the DisCos, Ikeja Electric Plc, in a message to electricity consumers under its franchise area, said, “Please be informed that we experienced a system outage today, December 11, 2024, at about 13:32 hours affecting supply within our network.
“Restoration of supply is ongoing in collaboration with our critical stakeholders. Kindly bear with us.”
Recall that on Tuesday, in a report, Google listed national grid as one of the top trending searches by Nigerians this year.
General
NLNG to Replace Vessels in Move Towards Decarbonisation, Sustainability
By Adedapo Adesanya
The Nigerian LNG Limited (NLNG), which produces Nigeria’s Liquified Natural Gas (LNG) and natural gas liquids (NGLs) for export, is planning to replace all its vessels with modern ships within the next decade.
This was disclosed by Mr Nnamdi Anowi, the General Manager of Production, NLNG, during the World Leaders’ Panel session on Tuesday in Berlin, Germany, as part of the 2024 World LNG Summit and Awards.
Speaking at the event themed “Achieving the Balance Between Energy Security and Decarbonisation,” he said the company which was incorporated in 1989 was making plans to boost its vessels to ensure proper transportation of gas for export.
“We are making significant strides in our shipping operations. Over the next 10 years, we aim to transition from our current steam-powered vessels to modern ships.
“Earlier this year, we took a major step by entering into a long-term chapter of our first modern ship Aktoras, and we are already planning to acquire a second ship next year,” he said.
On the critical issue of net zero emissions, Mr Anowi said that NLNG aspires to achieve net zero emissions by 2040.
According to him, this goal is attainable through implementing a combination of solutions that include operational efficiency, natural sinks/offset projects, carbon capture and storage (CCS), net zero expansion, digital solutions and shipping efficiency.
“Our pathway to net zero aligns with Nigeria’s target of reaching net zero by 2060, while many major players in the industry are aiming for 2050.
“We are actively expanding our initiatives in this area, including several low-carbon projects,” he explained.
Regarding Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG), Anowi noted that the company had committed 100 per cent of its LPG production (propane and butane) to the Nigerian market.
He pointed out the urgent need for cleaner energy, citing a report that revealed that not less than 100,000 Nigerians died yearly from smoke inhalation caused by cooking with firewood, predominantly affecting women and children.
“This underscores our commitment to sustainability. It’s important to recognise that about 80 per cent of Africans lack access to cleaner energy.
“When discussing sustainability, we can not overlook the necessity of providing energy to these communities,” he added.
He further elaborated on NLNG’s strategy, stating, “Our objective at Nigeria LNG is to maintain safety, enhance capacity, foster growth, and future-proof our business.
“The recent transformation programme includes a rebranding initiative, evidenced by the unveiling of a new logo and the company’s renewed purpose: providing energy for life’s sustainability.
Mr Anowi also noted that NLNG was working diligently to improve its production capacity from 23 million tons to 30 million tons through its Train 7 Project.
“We are actively engaging with stakeholders and the government to ensure our LNG trains are filled by the end of next year,” he said.
On sustainability, Mr Anowi explained that 75 per cent of NLNG’s emissions result from its operations, with the remaining 25 per cent coming from its shipping activities.
He emphasised the importance of measurement, reduction, avoidance and mitigation strategies in their sustainability efforts.
He said that the company was also exploring CCS opportunities through partnerships with the government and other international oil companies.
“We are in the early stages of CCS implementation, assessing potential reservoirs for this purpose,” he said.
In terms of renewable energy, Anowi said that NLNG was investigating solar power projects at its offices in Abuja and Port Harcourt as part of its broader sustainability initiatives.
“We are committed to abatement efforts and are collaborating with experienced private companies to explore carbon credit opportunities.
“We must balance sustainability with affordability and reliability in energy supply.
“The African region must progress at its own pace, prioritising immediate energy needs before addressing long-term sustainability goals,” he explained.
General
National Grid, Mr Ibu Among Top Trending Searches by Nigerians in 2024
By Dipo Olowookere
Many events happened in 2024 in Nigeria but a few shook the nation because of their impact on residents of the country.
According to a report released by Google, the incessant collapse of the national grip, which plunged the nation into darkness, was among trending searches on its platform.
In the report made available to Business Post on Tuesday, the tech giant said this year’s results show a continued interest in the political and economic landscape, with searches related to the US elections, the new national anthem.
“The 2024 Year in Search offers a unique lens into the questions, interests, and conversations that shaped the lives of Nigerians this year.
“From cultural milestones to pressing concerns, these insights reflect how Search continues to be a valuable tool for users to navigate and better understand their world,” the Communications and Public Affairs Manager for Google West Africa, Taiwo Kola-Ogunlade, stated.
Google’s 2024 Year in Search for Nigeria showcased the most popular searches, notable individuals, actors, musicians, topics, questions, and other subjects that captured Nigerians’ attention in the year.
Google’s Year in Search is an annual analysis that reveals the top trending lists and also spotlights what the world searches to see, learn, and do.
The music scene in 2024 was marked by a surge in popularity for artists like Shallipopi and Khaid, who also featured prominently in the overall personalities list. The top trending song was “”I Don’t Care” by Boy Spyce”, followed closely by “Ozeba” and “Commas” by Ayra”. Nigerians also showed a keen interest in understanding the lyrics of various songs, with “Ogechi lyrics”, “Ozeba lyrics”, and “Omemma by Chandler Moore lyrics” leading the searches in the lyrics category.
This year, Nigerians continued to demonstrate a strong interest in entertainment with movies like “A Tribe Called Judah”, “Treasure In The Sky”, and “Damsel” topping the movie charts. The top TV series that captured the interest of Nigerian netizens included “Supacell”, “My Demon”, and “Queen of Tears”. In the culinary world, Nigerians explored diverse recipes with “Pornstar Martini recipe” leading the searches.
Concerns about personal well-being and global events were also reflected in search trends. Questions like “How much is dollar to naira today?”, “How to get perfectly defined curls for African hair?”, and “Who won the US presidential election?” topped the list of queries. Nigerians were curious about the meaning of words like “demure,” “steeze,” and “pet peeves,” turning to Search for answers.
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