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Economy

Oil Market to Remain Under Pressure This Week Amid Low Demand, Oversupply

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By Adedapo Adesanya

A double-barrelled problem of low demand and oversupply are set to plague the oil market this week again as Black April, the worst month for oil in 25 years, wraps up to welcome a fresh month that promises 10 percent cut off global crude production.

The double problem of low demand and oil glut has caused prices of the commodity to fall at the market as the world is running out of places to store excess supplies of crude due to the coronavirus-induced plunge in demand.

Last week saw one of the one of the most volatile periods for crude, with the United States futures, West Texas Intermediate (WTI), contract for May plunging below $0 for the first time ever. Prices fell in the negative territory for the first time to minus $37.63 per barrel.

The global benchmark, Brent Crude, was not exempted as it dropped to around $17 per barrel, a bearish level that has not been experienced in 20 years.

Global demand has collapsed by about 30 percent due to the pandemic, leaving more oil than can be stored and rising global inventories, especially in the US with the coronavirus pandemic weighing on consumption pressuring oil prices.

The market made recoveries late last week after US President Donald Trump pulled the oldest trick in the book, stoking tensions with rival, Iran. Traders lapped up at this and price moved up, but this is not enough as analysts view it as a short term promise.

President Trump instructed the US Navy to fire on any Iranian ships that harass it in the Gulf.

Over the weekend, in an effort to calm the situation, Iranian President, Mr Hassan Rouhani said the country was closely following United States activities, but would never initiate a conflict in the region.

However, for market hopefuls, as May draws closer, the first out of two months for cut, if more OPEC+ members announce early production cut, prices may make a positive turn and with tension between the US and Iran seen as a factor, prices may improve but it leaves long term worries like demand plunge and oversupply weakening the market.

The demand plunge, which has fallen as much as 30 percent following the COVID-19 situation, has contributed 80 percent to fall in prices of the commodity.

For this week, concerns about the collapse in demand because of travel restrictions to contain the coronavirus and a shortage of space to store oil are expected to shape outlook of the market.

There is, however, no reason to expect a repeat of what happened last week that saw US oil prices fall 306 percent.

Prices could continue to stabilize this week if more OPEC+ members announce early production cut that was agreed on April 12.

Also, an escalation of military activity in the Middle East will be help turn things around.

However, an announcement of output cut by US producers that has been debated is believed could trigger a steep short-covering rally.

As at the time of this report, the bears are dominating with Brent crude down at $20.90 per barrel while the WTI was down at $14.79 per barrel.

Adedapo Adesanya is a journalist, polymath, and connoisseur of everything art. When he is not writing, he has his nose buried in one of the many books or articles he has bookmarked or simply listening to good music with a bottle of beer or wine. He supports the greatest club in the world, Manchester United F.C.

Economy

Company Income Tax Falls 49.8% to N1.49trn in Q4 2025

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By Adedapo Adesanya

Revenue from Company Income Tax (CIT) in the fourth quarter of 2025 decreased by 49.8 per cent to N1.487 trillion from N2.96 trillion in the third quarter of 2025, according to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS).

The figure was contained in the NBS Company Income Tax (CIT) Q4 2025 Report released in Abuja on Wednesday by the stats office.

CIT is a statutory levy imposed on the profits of incorporated businesses in Nigeria. It is governed primarily by the Companies Income Tax Act (CITA) and administered by the Nigeria Revenue Service (NRS).

The report said domestic CIT received was N819.83 billion (55 per cent), while foreign CIT payment was N668.21 billion (45 per cent) in Q4 2025.

It said on a quarter-on-quarter basis, activities of extraterritorial organisations and bodies recorded the highest growth rate with 75.15 per cent,

The report said this was followed by Education and real estate activities at 54.20 per cent and 27.25 per cent, respectively.

“On the other hand, accommodation and food services activities recorded the least growth rate at -67.11 per cent, followed by activities of households as employers, undifferentiated goods and services producing activities of households for own use at -63.49 per cent.

“It said mining quarrying was recorded at -49.63 per cent.”

In terms of sectoral contributions, the report showed that the top three activities with the highest contribution in Q4 2025 were financial and insurance activities at 18.17 per cent, manufacturing at 17.30 per cent and mining and quarrying at 15.04 per cent.

It said, on the other hand, the activities of households as employers, undifferentiated goods and 0.002 per cent.

“This was followed by water supply, sewage, waste management and remediation activities with 0.04 per cent.

The report, however, said that, on a year-on-year basis, CIT collections in Q4 2025 increased by 13.38 per cent from Q4 2024.

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Economy

Nigeria’s Economic Recovery Yet to Improve Welfare, Says World Bank

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By Adedapo Adesanya

The World Bank has warned that Nigeria’s economic recovery has yet to improve household welfare as wage growth continues to lag behind inflation, leaving real incomes under pressure.

This was disclosed in its April 2026 Nigeria Development Update titled Nigeria’s Tomorrow Must Start Today: The Case for Early Childhood Development.

According to the report, while the Nigerian economy recorded moderate growth in 2026, following expansions of 4.1 per cent in 2024 and 4.0 per cent in 2025, the gains have not translated into improved living standards for most citizens.

It stated that growth was largely driven by the services sector, particularly ICT, financial services, and real estate, while agriculture and crude oil production made modest contributions.

On inflation, the report said price pressures have eased but remain in double digits, partly due to the impact of the Middle East conflict.

The lender noted that multidimensional poverty and weak early childhood development outcomes are threatening Nigeria’s long-term economic potential, despite signs of macroeconomic recovery.

The report explained that Nigeria is facing a deep early childhood development crisis, with poor outcomes in health, nutrition, and learning undermining productivity and future growth.

It emphasised that early childhood development, especially from pregnancy to age five, is critical to reversing the trend.

“Investments during this period generate lasting benefits, including better education outcomes, higher earnings, lower health costs, and stronger social cohesion. Investments during this period are highly cost-effective,” the report said.

The report highlighted alarming child welfare indicators, noting that 110 out of every 1,000 Nigerian children die before the age of five, 40 per cent are stunted, and 52 per cent are not developmentally on track before entering school.

It attributed these outcomes to persistent gaps in maternal healthcare, nutrition, early learning, and access to water and sanitation, particularly within the first 2,000 days of a child’s life.

The bank added that these outcomes remain “weak and highly unequal,” with significant disparities across income levels, regions, and states.

The report further revealed that favourable external inflows boosted reserves, with net external reserves rising to $34.8 billion at the end of 2025, while gross reserves reached $45.5 billion, equivalent to 8.7 months of imports.

However, it noted that Nigeria’s fiscal deficit widened slightly in 2025, as increased non-oil revenues were offset by higher state-level capital spending and federal recurrent expenditure.

“Federation Account Allocation Committee (FAAC) gross revenues rose from 7.9 per cent of GDP in 2024 to 8.5 per cent in 2025, driven by strong non-oil tax collections reflecting improved tax administration.

“This includes expanded e-filing and e-payments, higher compliance ahead of the implementation of the new tax bills, and the rollout of VAT e-invoicing, alongside a 0.2 per cent of GDP rise in subnational internally generated revenues,” the report stated.

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Economy

We Don’t Know When Our FY 2025 Results Will be Ready—Caverton

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By Aduragbemi Omiyale

One of the players in the Nigerian aviation sector, Caverton Offshore Support Group Plc, has informed the investing public that it is unsure when it will file its audited financial statements for 2025.

Companies listed on the Nigerian Exchange (NGX) Limited are required to submit their audited financial results at most three months after the end of the fiscal year.

For Caverton, it was supposed to release the financial statements for 2025 on or before March 31, 2026; however, it has not done the needful.

In a statement to explain the delay in the filing of the results, the company said it has not completed the audit, and does not know when this process will be concluded by its external auditor.

“The delay in filing the 2025 AFS arises from the fact that the audit of the company’s financial statements is still ongoing. The company is working closely with its external auditors to conclude the audit process.

“However, as at the date of this notice, the audit has not been finalised due to the need to complete certain outstanding review procedures and obtain final audit clearances to ensure the accuracy, completeness, and integrity of the financial statements,” Caverton explained.

It further said, “While significant progress has been made, the audit process has not reached completion, and as such, the company is currently unable to confirm a definitive timeline for the finalisation and filing of the AFS.”

“The company considers it prudent not to provide an anticipated filing date at this time in order to avoid providing information that may subsequently require revision,” it further stated in the statement signed by its scribe, Ms Amaka Obiora.

Caverton assured “its shareholders and the market that it remains fully committed to maintaining the highest standards of financial reporting, transparency, and regulatory compliance,” promising to promptly file the results “upon completion of the audit process.”

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