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Oil Market to Remain Under Pressure This Week Amid Low Demand, Oversupply

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crude oil market

By Adedapo Adesanya

A double-barrelled problem of low demand and oversupply are set to plague the oil market this week again as Black April, the worst month for oil in 25 years, wraps up to welcome a fresh month that promises 10 percent cut off global crude production.

The double problem of low demand and oil glut has caused prices of the commodity to fall at the market as the world is running out of places to store excess supplies of crude due to the coronavirus-induced plunge in demand.

Last week saw one of the one of the most volatile periods for crude, with the United States futures, West Texas Intermediate (WTI), contract for May plunging below $0 for the first time ever. Prices fell in the negative territory for the first time to minus $37.63 per barrel.

The global benchmark, Brent Crude, was not exempted as it dropped to around $17 per barrel, a bearish level that has not been experienced in 20 years.

Global demand has collapsed by about 30 percent due to the pandemic, leaving more oil than can be stored and rising global inventories, especially in the US with the coronavirus pandemic weighing on consumption pressuring oil prices.

The market made recoveries late last week after US President Donald Trump pulled the oldest trick in the book, stoking tensions with rival, Iran. Traders lapped up at this and price moved up, but this is not enough as analysts view it as a short term promise.

President Trump instructed the US Navy to fire on any Iranian ships that harass it in the Gulf.

Over the weekend, in an effort to calm the situation, Iranian President, Mr Hassan Rouhani said the country was closely following United States activities, but would never initiate a conflict in the region.

However, for market hopefuls, as May draws closer, the first out of two months for cut, if more OPEC+ members announce early production cut, prices may make a positive turn and with tension between the US and Iran seen as a factor, prices may improve but it leaves long term worries like demand plunge and oversupply weakening the market.

The demand plunge, which has fallen as much as 30 percent following the COVID-19 situation, has contributed 80 percent to fall in prices of the commodity.

For this week, concerns about the collapse in demand because of travel restrictions to contain the coronavirus and a shortage of space to store oil are expected to shape outlook of the market.

There is, however, no reason to expect a repeat of what happened last week that saw US oil prices fall 306 percent.

Prices could continue to stabilize this week if more OPEC+ members announce early production cut that was agreed on April 12.

Also, an escalation of military activity in the Middle East will be help turn things around.

However, an announcement of output cut by US producers that has been debated is believed could trigger a steep short-covering rally.

As at the time of this report, the bears are dominating with Brent crude down at $20.90 per barrel while the WTI was down at $14.79 per barrel.

Adedapo Adesanya is a journalist, polymath, and connoisseur of everything art. When he is not writing, he has his nose buried in one of the many books or articles he has bookmarked or simply listening to good music with a bottle of beer or wine. He supports the greatest club in the world, Manchester United F.C.

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Economy

Again, OPEC Cuts 2024, 2025 Oil Demand Forecasts

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OPEC output cut

By Adedapo Adesanya

The Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has once again trimmed its 2024 and 2025 oil demand growth forecasts.

The bloc made this in its latest monthly oil market report for December 2024.

The 2024 world oil demand growth forecast is now put at 1.61 million barrels per day from the previous 1.82 million barrels per day.

For 2025, OPEC says the world oil demand growth forecast is now at 1.45 million barrels per day, which is 900,000 barrels per day lower than the 1.54 million barrels per day earlier quoted.

On the changes, the group said that the downgrade for this year owes to more bearish data received in the third quarter of 2024 while the projections for next year relate to the potential impact that will arise from US tariffs.

The oil cartel had kept the 2024 outlook unchanged until August, a view it had first taken in July 2023.

OPEC and its wider group of allies known as OPEC+ earlier this month delayed its plan to start raising output until April 2025 against a backdrop of falling prices.

Eight OPEC+ member countries – Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria, and Oman – decided to extend additional crude oil production cuts adopted in April 2023 and November 2023, due to weak demand and booming production outside the group.

In April 2023, these OPEC+ countries decided to reduce their oil production by over 1.65 million barrels per day as of May 2023 until the end of 2023. These production cuts were later extended to the end of 2024 and will now be extended until the end of December 2026.

In addition, in November 2023, these producers had agreed to voluntary output cuts totalling about 2.2 million barrels per day for the first quarter of 2024, in order to support prices and stabilise the market.

These additional production cuts were extended to the end of 2024 and will now be extended to the end of March 2025; they will then be gradually phased out on a monthly basis until the end of September 2026.

Members have made a series of deep output cuts since late 2022.

They are currently cutting output by a total of 5.86 million barrels per day, or about 5.7 per cent of global demand. Russia also announced plans to reduce its production by an extra 471,000 barrels per day in June 2024.

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Economy

Aradel Holdings Acquires Equity Stake in Chappal Energies

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Aradel Holdings

By Aduragbemi Omiyale

A minority equity stake in Chappal Energies Mauritius Limited has been acquired by a Nigerian energy firm, Aradel Holdings Plc.

This deal came a few days after Chappal Energies purchased a 53.85 per cent equity stake in Equinor Nigeria Energy Company Limited (ENEC).

Chappal Energies went into the deal with Equinor to take part in the oil and gas lease OML 128, including the unitised 20.21 per cent stake in the Agbami oil field, operated by Chevron.

Since production started in 2008, the Agbami field has produced more than one billion barrels of oil, creating value for Nigerian society and various stakeholders.

As part of the deal, Chappal will assume the operatorship of OML 129, which includes several significant prospects and undeveloped discoveries (Nnwa, Bilah and Sehki).

The Nnwa discovery is part of the giant Nnwa-Doro field, a major gas resource with significant potential to deliver value for Nigeria.

In a separate transaction, on July 17, 2024, Chappal and Total Energies sealed an SPA for the acquisition by Chappal of 10 per cent of the SPDC JV.

The relevant parties to this transaction are working towards closing out this transaction and Ministerial Approval and NNPC consent to accede to the Joint Operating Agreement have been obtained.

“This acquisition is in line with diversifying our asset base, deepening our gas competencies and gaining access to offshore basins using low-risk approaches.

“We recognise the strategic role of gas in Nigeria’s energy future and are happy to expand our equity holding in this critical resource.

“We are committed to the cause of developing the significant value inherent in the assets, which will be extremely beneficial to the country.

“Aradel hopes to bring its proven execution competencies to bear in supporting Chappal’s development of these opportunities,” the chief executive of Aradel Holdings, Mr Adegbite Falade, stated.

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Economy

Afriland Properties Lifts NASD OTC Securities Exchange by 0.04%

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Afriland Properties

By Adedapo Adesanya

Afriland Properties Plc helped the NASD Over-the-Counter (OTC) Securities Exchange record a 0.04 per cent gain on Tuesday, December 10 as the share price of the property investment rose by 34 Kobo to N16.94 per unit from the preceding day’s N16.60 per unit.

As a result of this, the market capitalisation of the bourse went up by N380 million to remain relatively unchanged at N1.056 trillion like the previous trading day.

But the NASD Unlisted Security Index (NSI) closed higher at 3,014.36 points after it recorded an addition of 1.09 points to Monday’s closing value of 3,013.27 points.

The NASD OTC securities exchange recorded a price loser and it was Geo-Fluids Plc, which went down by 2 Kobo to close at N3.93 per share, in contrast to the preceding day’s N3.95 per share.

During the trading session, the volume of securities bought and sold by investors increased by 95.8 per cent to 2.4 million units from the 1.2 million securities traded in the preceding session.

However, the value of shares traded yesterday slumped by 3.7 per cent to N4.9 million from the N5.07 million recorded a day earlier, as the number of deals surged by 27.3 per cent to 14 deals from 11 deals.

Geo-Fluids Plc remained the most active stock by volume (year-to-date) with 1.7 billion units sold for N3.9 billion, trailed by Okitipupa Plc with 752.2 million units valued at N7.8 billion, and Afriland Properties Plc with 297.5 million units worth N5.3 million.

Also, Aradel Holdings Plc remained the most active stock by value (year-to-date) with 108.7 million units worth N89.2 billion, followed by Okitipupa Plc with 752.2 million units valued at N7.8 billion, and Afriland Properties Plc with 297.5 million units sold for N5.3 billion.

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