Economy
Nigeria Faces Quadrilemma of Recession, Inflation, Unemployment, Weak Currency—Rewane
By Adedapo Adesanya
Foremost Nigerian economist and think tank, Mr Bismarck Rewane, has said Nigeria now faces a quadrilemma, following the report of negative growth as announced by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) this morning.
Mr Rewane, who appeared on Channels TV on Monday, said that the latest pointer about the economy should push the country to start doing some things differently.
Speaking on the quadrilemma, Mr Rewane, who acts as an adviser to President Muhammadu Buhari through the Economic Advisory Council (ECA), said the country now faces a situation in which a choice must be made among four undesirable options.
“The first variable we are looking at is recession, negative growth,” he said. “The second variable is high inflation, which is almost 13 per cent.
“The third variable is high unemployment; even though the unemployment numbers are at 28 per cent, we think that it is much more than that. And finally, we have weaknesses in currency.
“So, we are having external weaknesses and vulnerabilities, slow growth, high unemployment, and, more than anything else, contraction in economic activity.
“Now we are going to move away from the monetary policy complement that we have, stimulate the economy with greater catalyst, and do some things differently,” he added.
This warning came on the outlook of the gross domestic report (GDP) which contracted by 6.1 per cent in the second quarter of the year.
Giving his view on the figures during the television programme, Mr Rewane said the decline was “surprising and concerning” but not “alarming at this point in time.”
“The truth is that the economy had its pre-existing conditions in Q1 and the lag between the slow down and the contraction was underestimated by all analysts,” he said.
Further, he noted that the federal government’s stimulus plan for the economy was inadequate to cover for the shortfall recorded by the bureau, saying “we have a N2.5 trillion equipment to fight a 12 trillion contraction,” adding that “so, the limitations and inadequacies and inappropriateness of the tools, compared to the problem we have, is stacked.
“We are saying that the move from a slowdown into a contraction was more than we expected. The tools that we have at our disposal are inadequate.
“The stimulus that is required to take us out of this equation is going to be much more than we expected. And we are going to have to take some measures,” he said further.
By Adedapo Adesanya
Demand for hot stocks, including MRS Oil Plc, buoyed the NASD Over-the-Counter (OTC) Securities Exchange by 0.52 per cent on Tuesday, December 23.
The energy company was one of the three price gainers for the session as it chalked up N19.69 to sell at N216.59 per share versus the previous day’s value of N196.90 per share.
Further, FrieslandCampina Wamco Nigeria Plc gained N2.95 to close at N56.75 per unit versus N53.80 per unit and Golden Capital Plc appreciated by 84 Kobo to N9.29 per share from Monday’s N8.45 per share.
Consequently, the market capitalisation went up by N10.95 billion to N2.125 trillion from N2.125 trillion and the NASD Unlisted Security Index (NSI) rose by 18.31 points to 3,570.37 points from 3,552.06 points.
Yesterday, the NASD bourse recorded a price loser, the Central Securities Clearing System Plc (CSCS), which gave up 17 Kobo to close at N33.70 per unit against the previous trading value of N33.87 per unit.
The volume of securities traded at the session went down by 97.6 per cent to 297,902 units from the previous day’s 12.6 million units, the value of securities decreased by 98.5 per cent to N10.5 million from N713.6 million, and the number of deals remained flat at 32 deals.
By value, Infrastructure Credit Guarantee Company (InfraCredit) Plc ended as the most actively traded stock on a year-to-date basis with 5.8 billion units exchanged for N16.4 billion. This was followed by Okitipupa Plc, which traded 178.9 million units valued at N9.5 billion, and MRS Oil Plc with 36.1 million units worth N4.9 billion.
In terms of volume, also on a year-to-date basis, InfraCredit Plc led the chart with a turnover of 5.8 billion units traded for N16.4 billion. Industrial and General Insurance (IGI) Plc ranked second with 1.2 billion units sold for N420.7 million, while Impresit Bakolori Plc followed with the sale of 536.9 million units valued at N524.9 million.
By Dipo Olowookere
It was another bullish trading session for the Nigerian Exchange (NGX) Limited as it closed higher by 0.59 per cent on Tuesday.
The market further rallied due to continued interest in large and mid-cap stocks on the exchange by investors rebalancing their portfolios for the year-end.
Yesterday, Aluminium Extrusion sustained its upward trajectory after it further appreciated by 9.96 per cent to N14.90, as Austin Laz gained 9.81 per cent to close at N2.91, Custodian Investment improved by 9.69 per cent to N38.50, and First Holdco soared by 9.35 per cent to N50.30.
Conversely, Royal Exchange declined by 7.22 per cent to N1.80, Champion Breweries shrank by 6.57 per cent to N15.65, NASCON lost 5.36 per cent to trade at N105.05, Sovereign Trust Insurance depreciated by 5.28 per cent to N3.77, and Japaul went down by 4.51 per cent to N2.33.
At the close of business, 29 shares ended on the gainers’ table and 27 shares finished on the losers’ log, representing a positive market breadth index and bullish investor sentiment.
This raised the All-Share Index (ASI) by 895.06 points to 153,354.13 points from 152,459.07 points and lifted the market capitalisation by N579 billion to N97.772 trillion from the previous day’s N97.193 trillion.
VFD Group finished the day as the busiest stock after it recorded a turnover of 192.0 million units worth N2.1 billion, GTCO exchanged 63.5 million units valued at N5.6 billion, Access Holdings traded 49.8 million units for N1.0 billion, First Holdco sold 45.8 million units valued at N2.3 billion, and Secure Electronic Technology transacted 38.3 million units worth N28.4 million.
In all, market participants bought and sold 677.4 million units valued at N20.8 billion in 27,589 deals compared with the 451.5 million units worth N13.0 billion traded in 33,327 deals on Monday, showing an improvement in the trading volume and value by 50.03 per cent and 60.00 per cent apiece, and a shortfall in the number of deals by 17.22 per cent.
By Adedapo Adesanya
The Naira rallied against the United States Dollar in the Nigerian Autonomous Foreign Exchange Market (NAFEX) on Tuesday, December 23 by N6.57 or 0.45 per cent to N1,449.99/$1 from the previous day’s N1,456.56/$1.
The domestic currency also improved its value against the Pound Sterling in the official market during the session by N1.30 to sell for N1,956.03/£1 compared with the preceding session’s N1,957.33/£1 and gained N2.94 on the Euro to close at N1,707.65/€1, in contrast to the previous session’s closing price of N1,710.59/€1.
In the same vein, the Nigerian Naira appreciated against the US Dollar by N5 at the GTBank FX counter to sell for N1,465/$1 versus the previous day’s N1,470/$1 but remained unchanged at N1,485/$1 in the black market window.
Sentiment in the FX market continued to improve with market operators attributing the appreciation to increased supply in the official market, supported by sustained interventions from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) and the impact of recent reforms.
Improved liquidity from exporters and foreign portfolio investors has also contributed to easing pressure on the local currency, helping to stabilise trading conditions during the festivities.
Analysts noted that the Naira’s performance has helped narrow the spread between the official and parallel market rates, a development seen as supportive of investor confidence and business planning. This relative stability has reduced short-term volatility risks and encouraged more orderly price discovery in the FX market.
Meanwhile, the cryptocurrency market was down yesterday as analysts suggest tax-loss harvesting and low liquidity are contributing to the action in crypto as the year ends. That means investors selling their underwater positions to realize losses, lowering their tax liabilities.
Some analysts remain cautiously optimistic about a potential rally, though significant recovery is not expected until liquidity returns in January.
Dogecoin (DOGE) crumbled by 3.1 per cent to $0.1281, Solana (SOL) slumped by 2.9 per cent to $121.92, Cardano (ADA) fell by 2.7 per cent to $0.3582, Ethereum (ETH) slid by 2.2 per cent to $2,926.25, and Ripple (XRP) depreciated by 2.1 per cent to $1.85.
Further, Binance Coin (BNB) lost 2.0 per cent to sell for $838.21, Bitcoin (BTC) declined by 1.4 per cent to $86,933.97, and Litecoin (LTC) went down by 0.2 per cent to $76.33, while the US Dollar Tether (USDT) and the US Dollar Coin (USDC) traded at $1.00 apiece.
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