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Economy

Nigeria Faces Quadrilemma of Recession, Inflation, Unemployment, Weak Currency—Rewane

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bismarck rewane advisory panel

By Adedapo Adesanya

Foremost Nigerian economist and think tank, Mr Bismarck Rewane, has said Nigeria now faces a quadrilemma, following the report of negative growth as announced by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) this morning.

Mr Rewane, who appeared on Channels TV on Monday, said that the latest pointer about the economy should push the country to start doing some things differently.

Speaking on the quadrilemma, Mr Rewane, who acts as an adviser to President Muhammadu Buhari through the Economic Advisory Council (ECA), said the country now faces a situation in which a choice must be made among four undesirable options.

“The first variable we are looking at is recession, negative growth,” he said. “The second variable is high inflation, which is almost 13 per cent.

“The third variable is high unemployment; even though the unemployment numbers are at 28 per cent, we think that it is much more than that. And finally, we have weaknesses in currency.

“So, we are having external weaknesses and vulnerabilities, slow growth, high unemployment, and, more than anything else, contraction in economic activity.

“Now we are going to move away from the monetary policy complement that we have, stimulate the economy with greater catalyst, and do some things differently,” he added.

This warning came on the outlook of the gross domestic report (GDP) which contracted by 6.1 per cent in the second quarter of the year.

Giving his view on the figures during the television programme, Mr Rewane said the decline was “surprising and concerning” but not “alarming at this point in time.”

“The truth is that the economy had its pre-existing conditions in Q1 and the lag between the slow down and the contraction was underestimated by all analysts,” he said.

Further, he noted that the federal government’s stimulus plan for the economy was inadequate to cover for the shortfall recorded by the bureau, saying “we have a N2.5 trillion equipment to fight a 12 trillion contraction,” adding that “so, the limitations and inadequacies and inappropriateness of the tools, compared to the problem we have, is stacked.

“We are saying that the move from a slowdown into a contraction was more than we expected. The tools that we have at our disposal are inadequate.

“The stimulus that is required to take us out of this equation is going to be much more than we expected. And we are going to have to take some measures,” he said further.

Adedapo Adesanya is a journalist, polymath, and connoisseur of everything art. When he is not writing, he has his nose buried in one of the many books or articles he has bookmarked or simply listening to good music with a bottle of beer or wine. He supports the greatest club in the world, Manchester United F.C.

Economy

Nigerian Stock Market Rebounds 2.30% Amid Cautious Trading

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Nigerian Stock Market

By Dipo Olowookere

The Nigerian Exchange (NGX) Limited returned to winning ways on Tuesday after it closed higher by 2.30 per cent amid cautious trading.

Yesterday, investor sentiment at the Nigerian stock market was weak after finishing with 37 price gainers and 40 price losers, indicating a negative market breadth index.

It was observed that the industrial goods sector rose by 4.86 per cent, the energy index appreciated by 4.66 per cent, and the consumer goods segment soared by 2.74 per cent. They offset the 1.38 per cent loss recorded by the banking counter and the 0.20 per cent decline printed by the insurance sector.

At the close of business, the All-Share Index (ASI) was up by 5,137.90 points to 228,740.19 points from 223,602.29 points, and the market capitalisation went up by N3.308 trillion to N147.278 trillion from N143.970 trillion.

The trio of FTN Cocoa, Industrial and Medical Gases, and Lafarge Africa gained 10.00 per cent each to sell for N5.50, N39.60, and N324.50, respectively, while Austin Laz grew by 9.71 per cent to N3.73, and Aradel Holdings jumped 9.52 per cent to N1,840.00.

On the flip side, UBA lost 10.00 per cent trade at N44.55, Trans-Nationwide Express slipped by 9.99 per cent to N6.40, NASCON crashed by 9.18 per cent to N187.90, Jaiz Bank depreciated by 8.93 per cent to N8.01, and Berger Paints crumbled by 8.66 per cent to N68.00.

Yesterday, market participants traded 908.0 million equities valued at N68.2 billion in 72,886 deals compared with the 678.2 million equities worth N44.1 billion transacted in 82,838 deals on Monday, showing a drop in the number of deals by 12.01 per cent, and a spike in the trading volume and value by 33.88 per cent and 54.65 per cent, respectively.

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Economy

Nigeria Records Five-Year Peak in Oil Output at 1.71mbpd

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By Adedapo Adesanya

Nigeria’s oil production recorded a five-year high of 1.71 million barrels per day, marking a significant rebound for the country’s upstream sector amid renewed efforts to restore output and improve operational stability.

The latest figure, released by Nigerian National Petroleum Company (NNPC) Limited, covers the period from April 2025 to April 2026 and underscores a steady recovery in crude production after years of disruptions caused by theft, pipeline vandalism and underinvestment.

According to the chief executive of the national oil company, Mr Bayo Ojulari, the performance reflects measurable progress across the company’s upstream, gas and downstream operations, with production gains supported by improved asset management and stronger field performance.

Within its exploration and production business, NNPC recorded a peak daily output of 365,000 barrels in December 2025, the highest level ever achieved by its upstream subsidiary. The company also advanced key contractual reforms, including revised production-sharing terms for deepwater assets aimed at unlocking additional gas reserves.

Nigeria’s gas ambitions are also gaining traction. Gas supply rose to 7.5 billion standard cubic feet per day in 2025, driven by major infrastructure milestones such as the River Niger crossing on the Ajaokuta-Kaduna-Kano pipeline and the commissioning of the Assa North-Ohaji South gas processing plant.

These investments are beginning to strengthen domestic gas utilisation. New supply agreements with major industrial consumers, including Dangote Refinery, Dangote Fertiliser and Dangote Cement, are expected to deepen gas penetration across manufacturing and power generation.

On the downstream front, NNPC has continued crude supply to Dangote Refinery under the crude-for-naira arrangement, a policy designed to reduce foreign exchange demand, support local refining and improve fuel market stability. The company also reaffirmed its 7.25 per cent equity stake in the refinery as part of its long-term energy security strategy.

Financially, the national oil company said it has resumed full monthly remittances to the Federation Account since July 2025. It has also reinstated regular performance reporting and held its first earnings call, moves widely seen as part of a broader push towards greater transparency and corporate accountability.

Despite the progress, challenges remain. Crude theft, pipeline outages and infrastructure bottlenecks continue to threaten production stability. Sustaining this recovery will depend on stronger security, reliable infrastructure and policy consistency as Nigeria seeks to maximise the benefits of rising domestic refining capacity.

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Economy

UAE to Leave OPEC May 1

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Nigeria OPEC

By Adedapo Adesanya

The United ‌Arab Emirates has announced its decision to quit the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) to focus on national interests.

This dealt ⁠a heavy ⁠blow to the oil-exporting group at a time when the US-Israel war on Iran had caused ⁠a historic energy shock and rattled the global economy.

The move, which will take effect on May 1, 2026, reflects “the UAE’s long-term strategic and economic vision and evolving energy profile”, a statement carried by state media said on Tuesday.

“During our time in the organisation, we made significant contributions and even greater sacrifices for the benefit of all,” it added. “However, the time has come to focus our efforts on what our national interest dictates.”

The loss of the UAE, a longstanding OPEC member, could create disarray and weaken the oil cartel, which has usually sought to show a united ⁠front despite internal disagreements over a range of issues from geopolitics to production quotas.

UAE Energy Minister Suhail Mohamed al-Mazrouei said the decision was taken after a careful look at the regional power’s energy strategies.

“This is a policy decision. It has been done after a careful look at current and future policies related to the level of production,” the minister said.

OPEC’s Gulf producers have already been struggling to ship exports through the Strait of Hormuz, a ‌narrow chokepoint between Iran and Oman through which a fifth of the world’s crude oil and liquefied natural gas supplies normally pass, because of threats and attacks against vessels during the war.

The UAE had been a member of OPEC first through its emirate of Abu Dhabi in 1967 and later when it became its own country in 1971.

The oil cartel, based in Vienna, has seen some of its market power wane as the US has increased its production of crude oil in recent years.

Additionally, the UAE and Saudi Arabia have increasingly competed over economic issues and regional politics, particularly in the Red Sea area.

The two countries had joined a coalition to fight against Yemen’s Iran-backed Houthis in 2015. However, that coalition broke down into recriminations in late December when Saudi Arabia bombed what it described as a weapons shipment bound for Yemeni separatists backed by the UAE.

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