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FG Expects Nigeria’s Economy to Bounce Back in Q1 2021

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Nigeria’s Economy to Bounce Back

By Modupe Gbadeyanka

The federal government has expressed optimism that all things being equal, the economy of Nigeria should get back on its feet from the first quarter of next year.

Minister of Finance, Budget and National Planning, Mrs Zainab Ahmed, said this when she received officials of the Federal Inland Revenue Service (FIRS) led by its Executive Chairman, Mr Mohammed Nami.

She said the various policies of the government are capable of injecting life into the economy, which contracted in the second quarter of 2020 by 6.1 per cent, according to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), which also said yesterday that inflation in August 2020 rose by 13.22 per cent.

Nigeria was faced with twin shocks this year and they came from a decline in the prices of crude oil and the global health pandemic of COVID-19, which forced a shutdown of the economy in Q2 2020.

The gross domestic product (GDP) is anticipated to decline again in the current third quarter despite the gradual reopening of economic activities in the country.

If the GDP records another negative growth in Q3 2020, Nigeria will officially fall into a recession like South Africa. It would be the second economic slip under the present administration of President Muhammadu Buhari.

Though the Buhari-led government wants to avoid this disaster, it is looking inevitable because of the effect of COVID-19 on the economy and Nigeria is not alone in this.

Speaking with her guests during the courtesy visit to her office in Abuja, the Finance Minister said, “We are expecting by the first quarter of 2021, we shall be okay.”

She charged the tax agency to do more in terms of generating revenue for the nation, reminding FIRS that there are other government obligations and debt servicing which requires revenue to fund “and we can see that the capacity to do more is there and we expect you to do more.”

“I also want your team working on the Finance Act to double their efforts. I want to remind you that we are an enabler for you. So, feel free and update us so that we can deal with your challenges,” she implored the team.

Mrs Ahmed commended the tax body for its revenue performance despite the decline in oil revenue, saying it has remained resolute as both Value Added Tax (VAT) and stamp duty have helped in boosting earnings.

According to her, the efforts at diversifying revenue sources have been a blessing, noting that the pandemic has not impacted much, especially in Nigeria because of the proactive measures taken by the government especially in the health sector.

In his remarks, the FIRS chief, Mr Mohammed Nami, thanked the Minister for her support for the agency, assuring her that they would do all their best “to provide food for FAAC (Federation Account Allocation Committee allocation) through revenue generation.”

Mr Nami said the FIRS has been contributing up to 70 per cent of the FAAC allocation in the last three to five months, thanking the Minister for keeping the economy buoyant, despite the challenges.

Modupe Gbadeyanka is a fast-rising journalist with Business Post Nigeria. Her passion for journalism is amazing. She is willing to learn more with a view to becoming one of the best pen-pushers in Nigeria. Her role models are the duo of CNN's Richard Quest and Christiane Amanpour.

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Economy

Dangote Refinery Targets Congo in Regional Expansion Push

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Dangote monopoly Political Economy of Failure

By Adedapo Adesanya

Dangote Petroleum Refinery & Petrochemicals has advanced talks with the Société Nationale des Pétroles du Congo (SNPC) on a strategic partnership to supply refined petroleum products to the Republic of the Congo, in a move aimed at expanding its regional footprint.

The talks followed a visit by an SNPC delegation to the Dangote Refinery in Lekki, Lagos, led by the Congo state oil company’s Managing Director, Mr Maixent Raoul Ominga.

During the visit, Mr Ominga described the refinery as one of Africa’s most significant industrial achievements and said the Congolese national oil company was interested in building a long-term partnership with Dangote.

According to Mr Ominga, discussions centred on opportunities for collaboration in crude refining, petroleum products supply, energy security, industrial development and technical knowledge exchange. He noted that although the Republic of the Congo has its own refining capacity, working with Dangote would strengthen fuel supply, improve value creation and deepen cooperation between the two organisations.

The SNPC chief also praised the Dangote Group for demonstrating that African companies can finance, build and operate world-class industrial infrastructure.

He further commended the group’s investments in Congo’s cement industry, saying they have expanded local production capacity and improved the availability of construction materials.

On his part, the chief executive of Dangote Industries Limited, Mr Aliko Dangote, reaffirmed the company’s commitment to Africa’s industrialisation agenda through regional partnerships and value addition.

“We are for Africa, not just Nigeria. Tell us what you need, and we will see how we can work together,” Mr Dangote said.

He added that the Dangote Refinery has established a new benchmark for fuel quality on the continent by producing petroleum products that meet international specifications, while helping African countries reduce dependence on imported refined fuels from outside the continent.

Group Vice President, Oil and Gas, Dangote Industries Limited, Mr Devakumar Edwin, outlined the company’s long-term expansion strategy, revealing plans to increase its total refining capacity to 2.1 million barrels per day. The expansion will comprise 1.4 million barrels per day in Nigeria and a proposed 700,000-barrel-per-day refinery in Kenya to serve East African markets.

Mr Edwin also disclosed that the Dangote Group plans to invest an additional $46 billion between 2026 and 2028 across its refining, cement and fertiliser businesses as part of its broader strategy to accelerate industrialisation across Africa.

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Economy

Unilever, NASCON Join NGX 30 Index as Oando, Transcorp Exit

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oando stocks

By Aduragbemi Omiyale

The duo of Oando Plc and Transcorp Plc have been evicted from the NGX 30 Index by the Nigerian Exchange (NGX) Limited in the 2026 half-year review of market indices.

In a statement from Customs Street on Wednesday, it was disclosed that Unilever Nigeria Plc and NASCON Plc are the new members of the elite index.

Designed using the market capitalisation methodology, NGX indices are reviewed semi-annually on the first business day of January and July to ensure they remain aligned with evolving market dynamics and international best practices.

The exchange reserves the right to make further adjustments where necessary in the event of mergers, acquisitions, trading suspensions, resumptions or other corporate actions prior to the effective date of an index review.

Business Post reports that the consumer goods, banking, insurance, industrial goods, energy, pension, and pension broad indices did not witness any entry or exit.

However, the Lotus Islamic index saw the inclusion of Nestle Nigeria and Cadbury Nigeria and the exit of NASCON. Stanbic IBTC Holdings was added to the Afrinvest Bank Value index, with Access Holdings leaving the Afrinvest Div Yield index after the inclusion of Seplat Energy, Fidelity Bank, Stanbic IBTC Holdings, Custodian Investment, and NAHCO.

Further, the Meristem Growth index welcomed Eterna and PZ Cussons and bid farewell to BUA Cement, GTCO, AXA Mansard Insurance, NAHCO, NASCON, Okomu Oil, HBM Nigeria (Lafarge Africa) and Wema Bank.

As for the Meristem Value index, the NGX added Chemical and Allied Products, Honeywell Flour Mills, Dangote Cement, Linkage Assurance, Livestock Feeds, NASCON, Okomu Oil, and TotalEnergies, but removed Ecobank, Guinness Nigeria, and Zenith Bank.

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Economy

IMF Says Nigeria Omitted Public Spending Worth 2% of GDP From Budgets

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Rethink Relationship With IMF Nigeria

By Adedapo Adesanya

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has revealed that Nigeria had about 2 per cent of GDP worth of public spending not recorded in recent official budgets, creating a gap between its reported deficit and actual financing needs.

IMF resident representative in Nigeria, Mr Christian Ebeke, said on Wednesday, during a session with business executives in Lagos, the country’s commercial capital.

The discrepancy means the country’s fiscal deficit appears smaller than the level of borrowing, because some capital spending was not included in budget documents or implementation reports.

Mr Ebeke said these unreported expenditures are linked, in part, to large government projects carried out off-budget, distorting assessments of Nigeria’s fiscal stance and public investment levels.

“So far, we think that there are about 2 per cent of GDP of expenditure that were not reported that should be reported and should be recorded, so that this statistical discrepancy will disappear,” said Mr Ebeke.

The lack of full reporting can also complicate coordination between fiscal and monetary policy, as policymakers may not have a clear picture of the true deficit, he added.

Mr Ebeke also clarified that the Nigerian government has begun addressing the issue by repealing and revising recent budget laws to incorporate previously unrecorded spending, though updated implementation reports are still needed.

He added that improving transparency is critical, noting that off-budget spending raises concerns about procurement processes and oversight.

In its latest Article IV review, the IMF praised Nigeria’s sweeping reforms, saying they had strengthened economic stability and investor confidence, but warned that the benefits had yet to reach millions of citizens and could be undermined by global shocks, including the Middle East conflict.

According to the Bretton Woods institution, the implementation of Nigeria’s new tax laws should gradually increase revenue collection, while the use of digital tools to track, verify and collect revenues could reduce leakages and corruption vulnerabilities.

The IMF said higher revenues would create fiscal space for development projects and social spending, but warned that the timing of any additional taxes should take into account the country’s worsening social conditions.

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