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FG Expects Nigeria’s Economy to Bounce Back in Q1 2021

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Nigeria’s Economy to Bounce Back

By Modupe Gbadeyanka

The federal government has expressed optimism that all things being equal, the economy of Nigeria should get back on its feet from the first quarter of next year.

Minister of Finance, Budget and National Planning, Mrs Zainab Ahmed, said this when she received officials of the Federal Inland Revenue Service (FIRS) led by its Executive Chairman, Mr Mohammed Nami.

She said the various policies of the government are capable of injecting life into the economy, which contracted in the second quarter of 2020 by 6.1 per cent, according to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), which also said yesterday that inflation in August 2020 rose by 13.22 per cent.

Nigeria was faced with twin shocks this year and they came from a decline in the prices of crude oil and the global health pandemic of COVID-19, which forced a shutdown of the economy in Q2 2020.

The gross domestic product (GDP) is anticipated to decline again in the current third quarter despite the gradual reopening of economic activities in the country.

If the GDP records another negative growth in Q3 2020, Nigeria will officially fall into a recession like South Africa. It would be the second economic slip under the present administration of President Muhammadu Buhari.

Though the Buhari-led government wants to avoid this disaster, it is looking inevitable because of the effect of COVID-19 on the economy and Nigeria is not alone in this.

Speaking with her guests during the courtesy visit to her office in Abuja, the Finance Minister said, “We are expecting by the first quarter of 2021, we shall be okay.”

She charged the tax agency to do more in terms of generating revenue for the nation, reminding FIRS that there are other government obligations and debt servicing which requires revenue to fund “and we can see that the capacity to do more is there and we expect you to do more.”

“I also want your team working on the Finance Act to double their efforts. I want to remind you that we are an enabler for you. So, feel free and update us so that we can deal with your challenges,” she implored the team.

Mrs Ahmed commended the tax body for its revenue performance despite the decline in oil revenue, saying it has remained resolute as both Value Added Tax (VAT) and stamp duty have helped in boosting earnings.

According to her, the efforts at diversifying revenue sources have been a blessing, noting that the pandemic has not impacted much, especially in Nigeria because of the proactive measures taken by the government especially in the health sector.

In his remarks, the FIRS chief, Mr Mohammed Nami, thanked the Minister for her support for the agency, assuring her that they would do all their best “to provide food for FAAC (Federation Account Allocation Committee allocation) through revenue generation.”

Mr Nami said the FIRS has been contributing up to 70 per cent of the FAAC allocation in the last three to five months, thanking the Minister for keeping the economy buoyant, despite the challenges.

Modupe Gbadeyanka is a fast-rising journalist with Business Post Nigeria. Her passion for journalism is amazing. She is willing to learn more with a view to becoming one of the best pen-pushers in Nigeria. Her role models are the duo of CNN's Richard Quest and Christiane Amanpour.

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Economy

Naira Rallies N7.27 on Dollar to N1,372/$1 at NAFEM

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weakening Naira

By Adedapo Adesanya

The Naira further appreciated against the US Dollar by N7.27 or 0.39 per cent to N1,372.41/41 in the Nigerian Autonomous Foreign Exchange Market (NAFEX) on Wednesday, July 1 compared with the previous day’s N1,379.68/$1.

The local currency also further improved against the Pound Sterling in the official market by N3.32 to close at N1,821.73/£1 compared N1,825.05/£1, and gained N7.61 on the Euro to sell at N1,565.37/€1 versus N1,572.98/€1.

Meanwhile, the Naira traded flat against the Dollar at the parallel market yesterday at N1,395/$1, and also closed flat at the GTBank FX desk at N1,389/$1.

Interbank FX deals count reduced to 91 from 166, reducing pressures on foreign currency supply at the FX window. A lower number of deals and turnover suggested that bank customers’ Dollar requests eased today, pointing to low demand and alleviating pressure on the Naira.

Nigeria’s gross external reserves closed the first half of 2026 at $51.46 billion following a sequence of additional FX inflows from across key sources, including oil sales.

The market also got affirmations of stronger policy direction as the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) continued to sanitise the financial system with the revocation of 46 microfinance banks across the country with immediate effect.

In the cryptocurrency market, the market was positive after the US Federal Reserve Chairman, Mr Kevin Warsh, said inflation risks had eased, giving a market that spent most of June grinding lower its first clear lift in weeks.

Speaking at the European Central Bank’s annual forum in Sintra, Portugal, on Wednesday, Mr Warsh said “inflation risks have come down” while reaffirming the Fed’s commitment to returning inflation to 2 per cent.

Solana (SOL) grew by 3.9 per cent to $78.02, Bitcoin (BTC) rose by 2.5 per cent to $60,385.27, Ethereum (ETH) expanded by 2.3 per cent to $1,623.09, Cardano (ADA) jumped by 2.1 per cent to $0.1542, Ripple (XRP) appreciated by 0.9 per cent to $1.05, Dogecoin (DOGE) increased by 0.7 per cent to $0.0726, and Binance Coin (BNB) soared by 0.4 per cent to $551.50.

On the flip side, TRON (TRX) fell by 0.2 per cent to $0.3154, while the US Dollar Tether (USDT) and the US Dollar Coin (USDC) remained unchanged at $1.00 each.

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Economy

Aradel, Dangote Cement, Others Pull Back Stock Exchange by 1.65%

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Aradel Holdings

By Dipo Olowookere

The gains recorded by the Nigerian Exchange (NGX) Limited on Tuesday were quickly erased on Wednesday after stocks like Dangote Cement, Aradel Holdings, International Breweries and others recorded losses.

Apart from the insurance index, which closed higher by 0.42 per cent, every other sector ended in the red, with the energy space down by 4.41 per cent. The industrial goods segment lost 3.63 per cent, the banking sector depreciated by 1.49 per cent, and the consumer goods counter fell by 0.93 per cent.

Consequently, the All-Share Index (ASI) contracted by 3,729.11 points to 225,690.07 points from 229,419.18 points, and the market capitalisation retreated by N2.393 trillion to N144.825 trillion from N147.218 trillion.

Investor sentiment was bearish after the stock exchange closed the day with 22 appreciating equities and 32 depreciating equities, indicating a negative market breadth index.

Neimeth shed 10.00 per cent to settle at N8.10, Aradel bled by 10.00 per cent to quote at N1,275.80, NASCON crashed by 9.98 per cent to N197.60, International Breweries lost 9.52 per cent to trade at N9.50, and Livestock Feeds slipped by 9.43 per cent to N28.12.

On the flip side, Austin Laz gained 10.00 per cent to sell for N3.30, Guinea Insurance appreciated by 9.89 per cent to N1.00, DAAR Communications rose by 9.60 per cent to N1.37, Regency Alliance expanded by 9.52 per cent to 92 Kobo, and Sovereign Trust Insurance grew by 7.85 per cent to N2.06.

Business Post reports that the level of activity dropped yesterday, and Sterling Holdings led the activity log, with a turnover of 124.6 million units worth N980.6 million. UPDC traded 40.1 million units for N130.4 million, Access Holdings exchanged 36.8 million units valued at N811.6 million, Honeywell Flour transacted 33.8 million units worth N490.1 million, and United Capital sold 28.4 million units for N469.1 million.

At the close of transactions, market participants traded 488.1 million units valued at N14.0 billion in 46,929 deals versus the 966.7 million units worth N40.0 billion executed in 49,579 deals in the previous session, implying a drop in the trading volume, value, and number of deals by 49.51 per cent, 65.00 per cent, and 5.35 per cent, respectively.

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Economy

Crude Oil Drops Nearly 2% as Trump Hails Iran Talks

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Crude Oil Theft special court

By Adedapo Adesanya

Crude oil was down by nearly 2 per cent ​on Wednesday as optimism over US-Iran talks eased supply concerns after US President Donald ‌Trump said discussions in Qatar had gone well.

Brent futures gave up $1.38 or 1.89 per cent to sell for $71.57 a barrel, and the US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude lost 92 cents or 1.32 per cent to trade at $68.58 a barrel.

President Trump said on Wednesday that the US was getting along ⁠very well with Iran and that recent meetings in Qatar went well.

“The denuclearisation of ​Iran is moving along well,” the American President ​told reporters. “They’ve had very good meetings, and ⁠we’ll see.”

The US and Iran held technical talks in Doha as they seek ​to agree on the flow of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz and secure a lasting ceasefire, a source with direct knowledge ​of the talks and an Iranian official said.

The US and Iran have sparred publicly over the meaning of the interim pact, exchanging military strikes over the past week.

Meanwhile, US Vice President JD Vance again signalled that the White House is prepared to use force against Iran if diplomacy fails, raising the stakes around a 60-day memorandum of understanding (MOU) that has halted open hostilities but left the core disputes unresolved.

Crude oil inventories in the United States decreased by 3.8 million barrels during the week ending June 26, according to new data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) released on Wednesday. The EIA’s data release follows figures by the American Petroleum Institute (API) that were released a day earlier, which reported that crude oil inventories saw a draw of 6.072 million barrels in the period.

Analysts have cut their 2026 oil price forecasts for the first time since the Iran war began, as the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz eased concerns over prolonged supply disruptions.

Meanwhile, a sub-group of oil-producing countries in the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+) will likely agree on a further hike ​in their output targets from August when they meet on Sunday. The target will increase by about 188,000 barrels per day for August, the same as for June and July.

The seven core OPEC+ members have increased their output quotas from April to July by almost 800,000 barrels ​per day even as the Iran war led to a sharp drop in production among key members.

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