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Year 2020: Glimmer of Hope for Nigeria Amid Recession and Pandemic

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Timi Olubiyi Recession and Pandemic

By Timi Olubiyi, PhD

The year 2020 has been fully eventful world over for governments, businesses, and livelihoods particularly with the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) which has continued to ravage the global economy leading to shocks and recession.

The COVID-19 recession is a major ongoing global economic crisis and many countries (advanced and emerging) have been impacted.

According to reliable data, leading economies like the UK, France, Italy, Belgium, Canada, Germany, Denmark, Spain, Russia, the US, and Japan as well as emerging economies, have all suffered a devastating economic decline which has left them recessed as a direct result of the pandemic.

However, the UK’s recession is by far the worst of any of the world’s major economies even though France and Germany are almost out of recession.

In comparison, the UK had a 20 per cent downturn in GDP throughout the first quarter which is the worst since records began in 1955.

Significantly, so far, the COVID-19 pandemic has had far-reaching consequences more on the emerging economies, particularly African countries.

The World Bank predicted that overall sub-Saharan Africa’s economy would shrink by 2.1 per cent to ⁠5.1 per cent during 2020.

In the same vein, Nigeria’s economy has officially nosedived into a recession for the second time in the last five years. However, the impact has been visible even before the official pronouncement, with the increase in the inflationary levels and rise in food insecurity, including deficit in health care, education, among others in the country.

Unfortunately, these shortfalls are likely to surge concurrently with a spike in the prevalence rate of crimes and criminality, especially if measures are not drastically taken to forestall a reversal of the trend.

The recession might worsen the already alarming poverty and unemployment rates in the country and could lead to an economic depression if the attendant negative implications are not addressed with holistic government policies, spending, and economic stimulus packages.

Agreeably, a recessed economy comes with a contraction of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth for at least two consecutive quarters and this was unavoidable because the Nigerian economy has been somewhat pressured from March 2020 as a result of the novel coronavirus and the attendant consequences particularly the lockdown and border closures.

According to the Nigerian Bureau of Statistics (NBS) report, the first quarter of the year 2020 showed a slow-paced growth of 0.68 per cent as GDP contracted by 1.87 per cent when compared to the fourth quarter of 2019.

However, the economy shrank in the second quarter of the year as the GDP fell by 6.10 per cent, compared with the growth of 1.87 per cent in Q1.

On Saturday, November 21, 2020, the NBS released the latest GDP numbers and it showed that the nation’s economy recorded a contraction of 3.62 per cent in the third quarter of 2020.

Despite the contraction witnessed so far in the year, commendation needs to go to the government for being able to close the contraction gap from 6.10 per cent to 3.62 per cent within just a quarter, it gives a glimmer of hope.

Even though the contraction and slide into recession was a long-awaited reality considering the quivering economy and the multi-impact of the novel coronavirus pandemic, which includes a significant downturn in consumer activity, food insecurity, low disposable income, weak consumer spending, inflation, high unemployment, a decline in crude oil demand and drop in price, shrinking government revenue, forex volatility, and the general lull in business and economy activities in the country among others.

Already, the COVID-19 pandemic is life-threatening and a huge health risk, however, the socio-economic impact has been devastating, with many workers facing job losses, job cuts, salary cuts, and redundancy.

This, coupled with the recession, it is evident that businesses, particularly SMEs, will struggle and many Nigerians will more than likely slip further below the poverty line as the majority are in the informal business sector.

In my view, negative GDP growths and decline in economic activities have been a global issue due to the pandemic, however, as a nation, the over-reliance on importation and its value chain has grossly contributed to the current realities in the country.

This portends a stiff climate for businesses, households, and livelihoods. However, the government can encourage consumer spending with policy responses and also stimulate investments particularly foreign direct investments and inflow of strategic funds for infrastructure investment and development to assist in the reversal of the trend.

As a people, we must invest in capital expenditure expenses and strategic infrastructure to reflate the economy.

More so, to cushion the effect of the impact of the recession, harmonization of both fiscal and monetary policy is essential. The economic stimulatory measures targeted at taxpayers to save their businesses from collapse should be strengthened by the government.

Perhaps, the government might need to consider more pragmatic palliatives such as social and fiscal policy palliatives, concessions on import trades, duties, and port charges waiver to reduce the value chain disruption.

At this time, cutting taxes to increase and improve disposable income needs to be considered. From observation, most SMEs run their businesses on loan facilities and the current situation will impede on their capacity to service these loans effectively, so government intervention is required to forestall massive business shut down.

Key sectors like manufacturing, maritime, aviation, education, hospitality, financial services, and the creative industry, need target bail-outs, relief, and supports to stimulate the economy to avoid business closures and huge job losses.

Further to this, to assist and support these real sectors and businesses at this time, regulators and tax authorities can also come up with critical policy actions and economic palliatives to keep businesses in operation.

Point of note is that if these efforts are not rightly channelled, we might be heading for a long haul which might be depressing.

In fact, the headline inflation or (Consumer Price Index) was 13.71 per cent year-on-year as at the month of September 2020, according to data from the NBS, up from 12.20 per cent in February 2020 (It stood at 14.23 per cent in October 2020).

Food prices remain a major driver of inflation in Nigeria especially with the rise in the composite food index. Consequently, priority attention and adequate policy response by the CBN monetary policy committee is required to address and stem the growing inflationary trend.

Nigeria derives close to 85 per cent of her foreign revenue from crude oil exports according to data from the Federal Ministry of Finance.

As a result of the price shocks occasioned by COVID-19, crude oil receipts have gone down and are no longer able to sustain the economy. Therefore, a thorough expansion of the revenue base is crucial at this time.

As a nation, we can leverage and emulate the United Arab Emirates which diversified their economy by reducing dependence on oil receipts from 100 per cent to only 35 per cent by considering investments and expansion of their non-oil sector- particularly service, tourism, real estate, and smart industries.

In Nigeria, some sectors can be considered to diversify our revenue base, they include – agriculture, transportation, information technology, and digital economy, If put in place it will reduce millions of dollars if not billions spent yearly on importing basic goods and food commodities that can grow locally.

Further attention should equally be given to our trade policy and SMEs which are the bloodline of most economies.

Trade policy refers largely to standards, goals, rules, and regulations that pertain to trade relations between countries. Basically, it governs international trade and encompasses imports, exports, tariffs, duties, etc.

Having and strengthening a strong trade policy will help create millions of jobs, grow local industries, and expand the economy.

In simple terms, it will help with the industrialization of the country and rejigging the economy in the long term. Though the ease of doing business initiative is essential, the rule of law and efficient legal and regulatory system is also required for simple contractual disputes to be resolved.

Investors, both local and international, will not likely consider investing in a country where simple contractual disputes take between 2 to 15 years to resolve.

In conclusion, the anti-corruption drive of the government needs to be stiffened, so that all social intervention, strategic plans, policies, and economic stimulus packages can be managed judicially. Good luck!

How may you obtain advice or further information on the article?

Dr Timi Olubiyi is an Entrepreneurship and Small Business Management expert with a PhD in Business Administration. He is a prolific investment coach, business engineer, Chartered Member of the Chartered Institute for Securities & Investment (CISI), and a financial literacy specialist. He can be reached on the Twitter handle @drtimiolubiyi and via email: [email protected], for any questions, reactions, and comments.

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The Future of Payments: Key Trends to Watch in 2025

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Luke Kyohere

By Luke Kyohere

The global payments landscape is undergoing a rapid transformation. New technologies coupled with the rising demand for seamless, secure, and efficient transactions has spurred on an exciting new era of innovation and growth. With 2025 fast approaching, here are important trends that will shape the future of payments:

1. The rise of real-time payments

Until recently, real-time payments have been used in Africa for cross-border mobile money payments, but less so for traditional payments. We are seeing companies like Mastercard investing in this area, as well as central banks in Africa putting focus on this. 

2. Cashless payments will increase

In 2025, we will see the continued acceleration of cashless payments across Africa. B2B payments in particular will also increase. Digital payments began between individuals but are now becoming commonplace for larger corporate transactions. 

3. Digital currency will hit mainstream

In the cryptocurrency space, we will see an increase in the use of stablecoins like United States Digital Currency (USDC) and Tether (USDT) which are linked to US dollars. These will come to replace traditional cryptocurrencies as their price point is more stable. This year, many countries will begin preparing for Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs), government-backed digital currencies which use blockchain. 

The increased uptake of digital currencies reflects the maturity of distributed ledger technology and improved API availability. 

4. Increased government oversight

As adoption of digital currencies will increase, governments will also put more focus into monitoring these flows. In particular, this will centre on companies and banks rather than individuals. The goal of this will be to control and occasionally curb runaway foreign exchange (FX) rates.

5. Business leaders buy into AI technology

In 2025, we will see many business leaders buying into AI through respected providers relying on well-researched platforms and huge data sets. Most companies don’t have the budget to invest in their own research and development in AI, so many are now opting to ‘buy’ into the technology rather than ‘build’ it themselves. Moreover, many businesses are concerned about the risks associated with data ownership and accuracy so buying software is another way to avoid this risk. 

6. Continued AI Adoption in Payments

In payments, the proliferation of AI will continue to improve user experience and increase security.  To detect fraud, AI is used to track patterns and payment flows in real-time. If unusual activity is detected, the technology can be used to flag or even block payments which may be fraudulent. 

When it comes to user experience, we will also see AI being used to improve the interface design of payment platforms. The technology will also increasingly be used for translation for international payment platforms.

7. Rise of Super Apps

To get more from their platforms, mobile network operators are building comprehensive service platforms, integrating multiple payment experiences into a single app. This reflects the shift of many users moving from text-based services to mobile apps. Rather than offering a single service, super apps are packing many other services into a single app. For example, apps which may have previously been used primarily for lending, now have options for saving and paying bills. 

8. Business strategy shift

Recent major technological changes will force business leaders to focus on much shorter prediction and reaction cycles. Because the rate of change has been unprecedented in the past year, this will force decision-makers to adapt quickly, be decisive and nimble. 

As the payments space evolves,  businesses, banks, and governments must continually embrace innovation, collaboration, and prioritise customer needs. These efforts build a more inclusive, secure, and efficient payment system that supports local to global economic growth – enabling true financial inclusion across borders.

Luke Kyohere is the Group Chief Product and Innovation Officer at Onafriq

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Ghana’s Democratic Triumph: A Call to Action for Nigeria’s 2027 Elections

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ghana election 2024

In a heartfelt statement released today, the Conference of Nigeria Political Parties (CNPP) has extended its warmest congratulations to Ghana’s President-Elect, emphasizing the importance of learning from Ghana’s recent electoral success as Nigeria gears up for its 2027 general elections.

In a statement signed by its Deputy National Publicity Secretary, Comrade James Ezema, the CNPP highlighted the need for Nigeria to reclaim its status as a leader in democratic governance in Africa.

“The recent victory of Ghana’s President-Elect is a testament to the maturity and resilience of Ghana’s democracy,” the CNPP stated. “As we celebrate this achievement, we must reflect on the lessons that Nigeria can learn from our West African neighbour.”

The CNPP’s message underscored the significance of free, fair, and credible elections, a standard that Ghana has set and one that Nigeria has previously achieved under former President Goodluck Jonathan in 2015. “It is high time for Nigeria to reclaim its position as a beacon of democracy in Africa,” the CNPP asserted, calling for a renewed commitment to the electoral process.

Central to CNPP’s message is the insistence that “the will of the people must be supreme in Nigeria’s electoral processes.” The umbrella body of all registered political parties and political associations in Nigeria CNPP emphasized the necessity of an electoral system that genuinely reflects the wishes of the Nigerian populace. “We must strive to create an environment where elections are free from manipulation, violence, and intimidation,” the CNPP urged, calling on the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) to take decisive action to ensure the integrity of the electoral process.

The CNPP also expressed concern over premature declarations regarding the 2027 elections, stating, “It is disheartening to note that some individuals are already announcing that there is no vacancy in Aso Rock in 2027. This kind of statement not only undermines the democratic principles that our nation holds dear but also distracts from the pressing need for the current administration to earn the trust of the electorate.”

The CNPP viewed the upcoming elections as a pivotal moment for Nigeria. “The 2027 general elections present a unique opportunity for Nigeria to reclaim its position as a leader in democratic governance in Africa,” it remarked. The body called on all stakeholders — including the executive, legislature, judiciary, the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), and civil society organisations — to collaborate in ensuring that elections are transparent, credible, and reflective of the will of the Nigerian people.

As the most populous African country prepares for the 2027 elections, the CNPP urged all Nigerians to remain vigilant and committed to democratic principles. “We must work together to ensure that our elections are free from violence, intimidation, and manipulation,” the statement stated, reaffirming the CNPP’s commitment to promoting a peaceful and credible electoral process.

In conclusion, the CNPP congratulated the President-Elect of Ghana and the Ghanaian people on their remarkable achievements.

“We look forward to learning from their experience and working together to strengthen democracy in our region,” the CNPP concluded.

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The Need to Promote Equality, Equity and Fairness in Nigeria’s Proposed Tax Reforms

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By Kenechukwu Aguolu

The proposed tax reform, involving four tax bills introduced by the Federal Government, has received significant criticism. Notably, it was rejected by the Governors’ Forum but was still forwarded to the National Assembly. Unlike the various bold economic decisions made by this government, concessions will likely need to be made on these tax reforms, which involve legislative amendments and therefore cannot be imposed by the executive. This article highlights the purposes of taxation, the qualities of a good tax system, and some of the implications of the proposed tax reforms.

One of the major purposes of taxation is to generate revenue for the government to finance its activities. A good tax system should raise sufficient revenue for the government to fund its operations, and support economic and infrastructural development. For any country to achieve meaningful progress, its tax-to-GDP ratio should be at least 15%. Currently, Nigeria’s tax-to-GDP ratio is less than 11%. The proposed tax reforms aim to increase this ratio to 18% within the next three years.

A good tax system should also promote income redistribution and equality by implementing progressive tax policies. In line with this, the proposed tax reforms favour low-income earners. For example, individuals earning less than one million naira annually are exempted from personal income tax. Additionally, essential goods and services such as food, accommodation, and transportation, which constitute a significant portion of household consumption for low- and middle-income groups, are to be exempted from VAT.

In addition to equality, a good tax system should ensure equity and fairness, a key area of contention surrounding the proposed reforms. If implemented, the amendments to the Value Added Tax could lead to a significant reduction in the federal allocation for some states; impairing their ability to finance government operations and development projects. The VAT amendments should be holistically revisited to promote fairness and national unity.

The establishment of a single agency to collect government taxes, the Nigeria Revenue Service, could reduce loopholes that have previously resulted in revenue losses, provided proper controls are put in place. It is logically easier to monitor revenue collection by one agency than by multiple agencies. However, this is not a magical solution. With automation, revenue collection can be seamless whether it is managed by one agency or several, as long as monitoring and accountability measures are implemented effectively.

The proposed tax reforms by the Federal Government are well-intentioned. However, all concerns raised by Nigerians should be looked into, and concessions should be made where necessary. Policies are more effective when they are adapted to suit the unique characteristics of a nation, rather than adopted wholesale. A good tax system should aim to raise sufficient revenue, ensure equitable income distribution, and promote equality, equity, and fairness.

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