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2020 a Year Like no Other: Taming Inflation in Nigeria

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By Timi Olubiyi, PhD

It is no news that many economies including Nigeria are currently in recession. In reality, the year 2020 has been eventful, chiefly with the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic.

Its impact has continued to have a severe impact on businesses, households, and economies globally and one of its consequences is inflation.

Even though inflation is a concept that affects all of us; but most importantly high inflation could be hostile to economy and business especially the micro, small and medium enterprises (MSMEs).

With persistent inflation, businesses and households usually perform poorly, and expectedly more money is paid for the same goods and services. This has been the troubling trend in Nigeria, where high price increases have been recorded in transportation, food cost, household needs, raw materials, pharmaceutical products, motor cars, vehicle spare parts, equipment, and in prices of services amongst others.

Admittedly, inflation erodes our value of money and also erodes the purchasing power of all of us. Therefore, the nexus of the impact of inflation is the specific focus of this piece.

However, it was mainly instigated by the continuous rise in the level of inflation rate in Nigeria in recent times. The consequences and impact of inflation (price instability) in Nigerian cannot be over-emphasized.

Key amongst the consequences of inflationary pressure is the persistent decrease in the purchasing power of citizenries especially at a time when the economy is in recession and pandemic is ravaging.

Inflation is simply defined as a persistent rise in the general price level of the broad spectrum of goods and services in a country over a long period. Largely, when prices of energy, food, commodities, goods, and services go up, it hurts all of us.

The persistent rise in the inflation rate in the country can easily erode the value of the naira and also cause increasing-price instability and this portends a concern. A major driver of Nigeria’s headline inflation has been the consistent rise in food cost.

Agreeably, the inflation rate is determined by calculating the percentage change in a price index such as consumer price index (CPI), wholesale price index (WPI), producer price index (PPI), etc) in an economy. The commonly used metric is the Consumer Price Index (CPI) which measures the change in income a consumer needs to maintain the same standard of living over time. That is, the CPI is an economic measure that tracks changes in the cost of living over time. It is a more acceptable means of measure of inflation or price movements.

Therefore, because CPI is available on a more frequent basis, it is mostly in use for monetary policy purposes even by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN). The Nigerian data on CPI in recent years was used to examine the level of the inflation rate.

The data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) reveals that the headline inflation rate for 2018 was 12.09%, a 4.43% decline from 2017 from an inflation rate of 16.52%. The inflation rate for 2016 was 15.68% and the inflation rate for 2015 was 9.01%.

The annual inflation rate in Nigeria rose for the fifteen-straight month to 14.89% in November 2020 from 14.23% in October 2020 meanwhile as against 13.71% recorded in September 2020. With this metric, the current rate is the highest recorded in the country since March 2018.

Noticeably, in a study on inflation in Nigeria using panel-data models by Sani Ibrahim Doguwa of Ahmadu Bello University, Zaria Kaduna State finds a threshold inflation level of 12 per cent applicable to Nigeria. This threshold implies that below the level, inflation has a mild effect on economic activities; while above it, the magnitude of the negative effect of inflation on growth is very high.

Consequently, from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) data Nigeria has experienced high volatility in inflation rates in recent times and the continuous rise above the threshold level of 12% is a cause for apprehension.

The sharp increase in the inflation rate, lull in economic activities and the economic recession could be attributable in specific terms to the increase in Value Added Tax (VAT) rate, increasing public debt, volatility in the price of crude oil, and the multifaceted COVID-19 consequences effects of government policies, COVID-19, external shocks, insecurity in the northern part of the country and public debt amongst others.

The novel coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic has negatively affected the global economy and most especially in Nigeria. It has significantly affected industrial output, the fortune of businesses especially MSMEs. More so causing a decline in economic activities with an attendant shrink in GDP.

Furthermore, COVID-19 has caused severe shortages in the supply of goods and services across borders, due to series of restrictions and this has necessitated depressing foreign earnings for Nigeria and also impacted negatively on economic growth and the fortune of businesses particularly MSMEs.

So far, we have seen the inflation rate rise from month-on-month (MoM) in the year 2020. The 14.89% in November 2020 was the highest inflation rate since April of 2018 which is over a two-year high and is a cause for concern.

Significantly, history and literature present some other factors adduced to the unsustainable business and economic growth in Nigeria apart from the high inflation rate, recession, and impact of COVID-19 to include: the insecurity in the northern part of the country, rising foreign and domestic debt, currency exchange rate volatility, propensity to consume more and save less, decrepit infrastructure and poor policy implications, among others.

Regrettably, these issues can further compound and manifest in areas we already have a deficit as a nation, staggering unemployment, a rise in the cost of living, bleak business continuity, poverty level increase, illiteracy, crime, and terrorism. Another big issue is the country’s economy over-reliance on crude oil production revenue.

Based on the aforementioned and from the inflationary perspective, to achieve adequate price stability in the country, the government needs to reduce the budget deficit, adopt significant structural policy reforms with monetary and fiscal policies. This will help to maintain stronger growth rates in terms of improved Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and to stabilize the tide of inflationary pressures on the economy and in business operations.

It is advocated that political leaders should minimize avoidable public spending, address insufficient infrastructure, and build strong and effective institutions. The massive growth and developmental challenges of the country can improve by also promoting the human and SME ecosystem.

The SME sector can play a major role in the economic growth of the country through the distribution of wealth, poverty reduction, and job creation. The sector is labour-intensive and can provide a reasonable reduction in the unemployment rate in the country but the government needs to provide an adequate enabling environment and support for the sector to strive.

Considerably, institutions, businesses, and individuals have the opportunity to beat inflation by accelerating the preservation of capital and strengthening purchasing power with income addition. This can be done by acquiring investments particularly assets such as real estate because they usually keep up with inflation.

Remember N100,000 today will not acquire the same value of goods and services in 10 years mainly due to inflation. Therefore, investing is key to hedge against a sharp inflation impact because it erodes the value of savings if funds are just left in the bank accounts.

Supportively, it is imperative to consider investing in other currencies, diversify your investment portfolio internationally if you can, consider inflation-protected securities with potential for higher-growth like equities, Gold Shares ETF, or mutual funds. These can earn more interest returns per year than the inflation rate therefore the options are reasonable. It is also possible to start a business, cultivate passive income, and even buy items with a long shelf life today to mitigate the impact of inflation. Good luck!

How may you obtain advice or further information on the article?

Dr Timi Olubiyi, an Entrepreneurship & Business Management expert with a PhD in Business Administration from Babcock University Nigeria. A prolific investment coach, seasoned scholar, Chartered Member of the Chartered Institute for Securities & Investment (CISI), and Securities & Exchange Commission (SEC) registered capital market operator. He can be reached on the Twitter handle @drtimiolubiyi and via email: drtimiolubiyi@gmail.com for any questions, reactions, and comments.

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How Nigerian Businesses Can Leverage Agentic AI for Growth and Efficiency

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Kehinde Ogundare Top 5 Zoho Platforms

By Kehinde Ogundare

Artificial Intelligence (AI) is revolutionising industries globally, and Nigeria is no exception to this trend. Businesses in Nigeria are increasingly exploring AI-driven automation to enhance efficiency, drive innovation, and remain competitive. However, AI adoption remains relatively low, as many businesses struggle to identify practical use cases that deliver measurable ROI.

A key emerging trend addressing this challenge is Agentic AI–a more advanced form of AI that enables businesses to create autonomous digital agents capable of handling complex tasks, optimising workflows, and improving decision-making. Unlike traditional AI models that react to user inputs, Agentic AI proactively learns, makes decisions, and automates entire processes, making it a game-changer for businesses looking to scale productivity.

The Rise of Agentic AI in Business

Globally, AI adoption has grown, but many businesses still hesitate due to concerns over cost, implementation complexity, and lack of clear ROI. According to McKinsey & Company, organisations that have successfully integrated AI-driven automation report efficiency improvements ranging from 20–30%. The key to unlocking AI’s full potential lies in specialised AI models designed for specific business functions–precisely where Agentic AI excels.

For example, in customer service, AI-powered agents can automate repetitive tasks, resolve issues faster, and enhance customer satisfaction. Studies have shown that nearly 88% of Nigerian consumers consider customer experience critical to their purchasing decisions. Agentic AI can help businesses meet these expectations by providing instant, personalised support.

In sales, AI-driven Sales Development Representative (SDR) Agent can analyse customer interactions, identify sales opportunities, and suggest targeted outreach strategies. Research highlights that businesses using AI in sales automation experience increase conversion rates and higher sales productivity.

Similarly, Human Resources (HR) operations are being transformed by AI-powered automation. Tasks such as leave management, employee onboarding, and performance tracking can be effectively handled by Agentic AI, allowing HR professionals to focus on strategic employment engagement. Deloitte indicates that AI-powered HR automation reduces administrative workload significantly, enhancing employee satisfaction and operational efficiency.

In IT operations, AI-powered Help Desk Agents streamline troubleshooting, diagnose issues, and execute quick fixes. This reduces downtime and significantly improves operational continuity and productivity.

How Zoho is Innovating with Agentic AI

At Zoho, we recognise the potential of Agentic AI and have developed Zia Agents for specific use cases within various products. Unlike generic AI models, Zia Agents provide contextual intelligence, real-time decision-making, and deep business-specific insights. Additionally, Zoho ensures that Zia agents operate within a secure infrastructure, fully compliant with various global privacy regulations, making it a trusted solution for businesses handling sensitive data.

We have also launched Agent Studio, an AI-powered platform that enables our customers, partners, and independent developers to create specialised agents for their specific needs. These can be hosted on Agent Marketplace, where they can be monetised. Nigerian businesses can utilise Agent Studio to build hyperlocal agents for various industries.

The Future of Business with Agentic AI

The shift towards Agentic AI is inevitable as businesses increasingly seek smarter, more autonomous systems to drive efficiency and growth. Organisations that embrace AI-driven today will be better positioned to compete in Nigeria’s evolving digital economy.

For Nigerian businesses looking to scale efficiently, Agentic AI  offers a practical and results driven approach to automation. By leveraging Zoho’s Zia Agents, companies can achieve higher productivity, ensuring long-term success in a competitive marketplace.

Kehinde Ogundare is the Country Head for Zoho Nigeria

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If Data is the New Oil, Where is the Refinery?

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Timi Olubiyi Data is the New Oil

By Timi Olubiyi, PhD

Internet users are growing at an unprecedented rate, and in Nigeria, for instance, internet users have expressed concerns and frustration over the data price increase in recent times, with many feeling its negative impact on their budgets and mobile smartphone usage.

Major networks such as MTN, Airtel, and Glo have seen a close to 50 per cent increase in Nigerian mobile data prices, with no known alternative available. This shows the significance of data and internet usage, highlighting its role in the digital age and the rapid growth of data and content creation across Africa.

From mobile phone data and e-commerce activities to social media interactions and government services, vast amounts of information are being created daily, which is accessible through internet usage.

The economic and technological landscape of Africa has been undergoing significant evolution recently. The continent is inhabited by over 1.4 billion individuals, and a larger portion of them create, use, and feed on data— which is a digital transformation.

The convergence of rising mobile phone usage, enhanced internet accessibility, and a youthful, technologically adept demographic has positioned Africa at the forefront of global discussions around technology innovation and data generation.

Recently, the phrase “data is the new oil” has gained significant traction in discussions related to technology, business, and the digital economy. But it is public knowledge that when it comes to oil, its availability is limited to certain areas of the world.

On the other hand, tech giants like Google, Facebook, Netflix, Amazon, Microsoft, and Apple control most of the world’s data.

According to a study by Sandvine in 2021, these companies are responsible for about 57 per cent of global data flow, and they have all commodified data. The huge amount of data controlled by these mega-companies is bigger than most small businesses and corporations. But, anyway, this would be another story piece for another time.

In the view of the author, if we want to know if data is really the “new oil”, we need to first look at how it builds value. Data by itself is not useful, just like in the case of oil. Raw data, without any processing or analysis, is merely a collection of information that requires interpretation.

For instance, an online store might keep track of what customers do, like what links they click on, how long they stay on product pages, and what they bought in the past.

However, this data remains mostly useless until it undergoes processing, analysis, and transformation into actionable ideas. Business managers in Africa should follow this path and should adhere to a mindset of ‘facts superiority over opinion’.

As businesses expand, an increasing number of individuals express ideas regarding the actions to be undertaken. However, it is beneficial to employ a data-insight mentality. All company metrics can be tested, measured and improved upon.

It is important to note that business owners/managers must have real-time access to the most important data in their business. Understanding which Key Performance Indicators (KPIs) affect revenue and profit is significantly more crucial than the revenue and profit figures themselves.

When data is cleaned up and analysed, it becomes really useful. Similar to refining oil to produce petrol, diesel, and other products, processing data yields beneficial outcomes. This is where Google and Facebook shine. They have put a lot of money into technologies like machine learning and big data analytics that can turn huge amounts of raw data into personalised ads, recommendation engines, and models that can predict the future. In this way, they make money for both their users and their owners.

In Africa, the idea of “data as the new oil” is particularly appealing because it could help the continent skip ahead in the normal stages of economic growth. Mobile phones let African countries get around the need for landline infrastructure.

Similarly, data technologies could help African economies get past older, resource-heavy ways of growing, leading to new ideas and long-term growth in fresh ways. In agriculture, for instance, data analytics and satellite imaging can help farmers figure out how the weather will behave, get the most out of their crops, and make harvest supply lines work better. Data-driven solutions in healthcare, like electronic health records (EHRs) and predictive analytics, can help find diseases, control outbreaks, and make healthcare better.

In the same way, data-driven education platforms can give students personalised learning experiences and give teachers and managers useful information about how students are doing and what they need. More so, businesses could be data-driven by setting up special internal research units on data, where insights can be generated to improve on decision-making.

Looking ahead, there are evident similarities between data and oil; much like crude oil, data is valuable. Data is not a naturally occurring resource like oil; it is a by-product of human activity. Oil is a limited resource, whereas data is plentiful and perpetually increasing. Raw data must be processed and analysed to derive significant insights and facilitate informed decision-making.

This is where artificial intelligence (AI) is relevant. AI acts as the ultimate data refinery, enabling the conversion of extensive information into meaningful insights. In contrast to oil, which is extracted and processed by a limited number of firms, data is more extensively disseminated, including various stakeholders in its collection, analysis, and utilisation.

Anticipating the future, data will probably witness ongoing advancements in many domains because it is a strategic asset for business and economic growth. With it, people, organisations, and governments can make better decisions. Good luck!

How may you obtain advice or further information on the article? 

Dr Timi Olubiyi is an entrepreneurship and business management expert with a PhD in Business Administration from Babcock University, Nigeria. He is a prolific investment coach, author, seasoned scholar, chartered member of the Chartered Institute for Securities and Investment (CISI), and a Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC)-registered capital market operator. He can be reached on the Twitter handle @drtimiolubiyi and via email: drtimiolubiyi@gmail.com, for any questions, reactions, and comments.

The opinions expressed in this article are those of the author, Dr Timi Olubiyi, and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of others.

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Why President Bola Tinubu Has the Edge in Retaining Power in 2027

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Bola Tinubu 2027 presidential election

By Kenechukwu Aguolu

As the year 2027 draws closer, political manoeuvrings and calculations are already underway across Nigeria. The landscape is expected to shift, with new alliances and coalitions forming among political actors and parties. However, in my view, the chances of the current administration retaining power in 2027 remain high, and several compelling reasons support this assertion.

First and foremost, the All Progressives Congress (APC), the party currently in power, stands as the most formidable political force in the country. The APC boasts an unrivalled structure, a stable leadership, and the highest membership among all political parties. With the largest number of serving governors and National Assembly members, the party is firmly entrenched in all corners of the nation. These factors alone give the APC a significant advantage as it gears up for the 2027 presidential elections.

Under the leadership of President Bola Tinubu, the current administration has displayed a deep sense of patriotism and a clear vision for Nigeria’s future. While the reforms introduced by the government came with initial challenges, these difficulties are gradually easing, and the results are becoming increasingly evident. Prices of goods and services are steadily dropping, and the Naira is beginning to show signs of recovery.

The government’s efforts to diversify the economy are also bearing fruit, with initiatives such as the revival of the Ajaokuta Steel Company and ongoing reforms in the mining sector. By 2027, the dividends of these economic reforms will be more apparent, and the public will be able to feel their positive impact. These successes will work in the administration’s favour and could solidify the APC’s hold on power.

Infrastructure and security have been at the forefront of the government’s priorities. Significant improvements in power generation have already been made, and efforts to tackle insecurity have begun to show positive results, albeit gradually. Furthermore, the government is investing heavily in road construction, including vital projects like the Lagos-Calabar Expressway.

These infrastructural developments are not just for show—they will stimulate economic activities across the country, create jobs, and enhance the living standards of Nigerians. If these trends continue, it will be hard for any political opponent to deny the progress made under the current administration.

Perhaps the most critical factor in the APC’s favour is the leadership of President Tinubu himself. With his personality, widespread followership, and experience, he stands as a political giant in Nigeria. His leadership has been marked by a strong sense of purpose and determination, and his vast network of supporters spans across different regions of the country.

While some may argue that time will tell who will emerge as a viable challenger to President Tinubu, it’s difficult to imagine any politician currently being touted as a credible candidate who could match his national appeal and charisma. The nature of Nigerian politics means that any potential challenger would need to command significant nationwide support to pose a real threat to the APC’s grip on power.

Looking ahead to the 2027 presidential election, I believe it will be much easier for President Tinubu to secure re-election than it was in 2023. His leadership performance, coupled with the robust support of the APC, places him in a strong position for victory. While unforeseen events may shape the political landscape over the next few years, the factors already in play suggest that the current administration is well-positioned to retain power.

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