Galvanising For Geometric Growth in Nigeria Amid New Global Economic Order (Part III)

By Oremade Oyedeji

Nigeria’s economy seems to be aligning with predictions by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) which said the country’s economy will face a 4.3 per cent contraction in the fourth quarter of 2020, a further decline from the third quarter figures reported a few weeks ago.

According to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), the country’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in real terms declined by 3.62 per cent (year-on-year) in Q3 2020, thereby marking a full-blown recession and second consecutive contraction from -6.10 per cent recorded in the previous quarter (Q2 2020).

According to the report, the performance of the economy in Q3 2020 reflected residual effects of the restrictions of movement and economic activity implemented across the country in early Q2 in response to the COVID-19 pandemic.

In a sectorial breakdown, it was shown that the oil sector plunged by a huge 13.89 per cent (year-on-year), while the non-oil sector receded by 2.51 per cent compared to 4.36 per cent decline (YoY), while manufacturing, trade, and others contracted cumulatively.

Growth in the non-oil sector was driven mainly by Information and Communication, Agriculture and others, with a major contribution from Agriculture (majorly from crop production accounting for 92.93 per cent of Agriculture sector input in the non-oil category), representing 1.39 per cent growth YoY.

There have been some observations noticed from this and it is the situation that mars the agriculture sector of the economy, which has been a major economic driver of this administration.

One would recount the death of over 40 farmers said to have been slaughtered by Boko Haram on December 3, 2020. The farmers were strangely blamed for their deaths. These were the same men who had their throats slit while others lost their heads and this civil unrest puts into perspective what to expect from the agricultural sector where farmers are not safe on their own land.

In another development, the price of onions has also jumped by more than 200 per cent majorly caused by the shortage of supply, flooding and poor storage facilities.

By looking at these two events alone, it is evident that the contribution from the only growth bounded sector of President Muhammadu Buhari’s led administration to the National GDP will dip further as this year winds down into exactly what was predicted by IMF for the final quarter ending in December 2020.

Or perhaps, let us just blame it on the gods for being angry with Nigeria. Nature has probably taken a complete strange order in this administration thereby affecting GDP and crop production quota.  Maybe this is why the African star apple, popularly known to our people as agbalumo, has refused to bear fruit this year.

We cannot overlook the insurgent-bound Borno state in the North-East part of the country, which due to the heavy conflict, cannot contribute the expected $5.18 billion to Nigeria’s GDP with its population of over six million and being the 19th largest state in the country.

Even with this burden, the country seemed not to be learning as Professor Wole Soyinka put it, “Recession didn’t just happen, people looted Nigeria into recession,” and as Tom Tugendhat, chairman of the UK parliament foreign affairs committee said at the parliament’s floor debate on the #EndSARS crisis, that General Gowon [allegedly] left Nigeria with half of the central bank, and moved to London in the 70s.

In his word, “We know, even today, the funds are still here.” What this means is that some people have taken so much from the Nigerian people and are hiding it overseas. “Our banks have been used sadly to profit from illegal transfer”, Tom reiterated. He believes that the UK Government is in a good position to do something to exert pressure on those who have robbed Nigeria’s young people.

Among others who spoke passionately was a member from West Ham (Ms Brown), as well as Olukemi Olufunto Badenoch (née Adegoke; born January 1980) a British Conservative politician, who condemned the freezing of bank accounts of Nigerians who were instrumental in the #EndSARS protest.

Until recently, many Nigerians constantly moved what could have been invested into the country into the United Kingdom investment space.

For example, The Kings Arms Hotel, a 300-year-old inn next to Hampton Court Palace, which once housed Henry VIII, the King of England in 1509, was acquired by TY Danjuma a few years ago.

Also, Hannatu Gentles, the second daughter of the Nigerian-made billionaire, was quoted to have said that the family does not invest in trophy assets. Well said, from the parliamentarian, you may have thought, and maybe only one of few good speeches among many thousand said from the colonialist that has unconsciously become part of Nigeria history that may have not been well told.

It is time to tell the true story from the right perspective, in my opinion, I subscribed to the words of Mariam Makeba, “you don’t expect people who came to invade us to write or say the truth about us. They will always say negative things about us.  But we cannot dwell on the past for too long and as the youth today says, regardless, we move.”

Let me conclude this piece from the word of former President Olusegun Obasanjo published March 5, 2015, by Premium Times, in the headlined piece; How Obasanjo dealt with me, reshaped my life – Tinubu. Former President Obasanjo warned against toying with loyalty to the country. “Loyalty and relationship must be guided and controlled by what is true, what is right and what is in the best interest of the majority.”