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Galvanising For Geometric Growth in Nigeria Amid New Global Economic Order (Part III)

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Geometric Growth

By Oremade Oyedeji

Nigeria’s economy seems to be aligning with predictions by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) which said the country’s economy will face a 4.3 per cent contraction in the fourth quarter of 2020, a further decline from the third quarter figures reported a few weeks ago.

According to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), the country’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in real terms declined by 3.62 per cent (year-on-year) in Q3 2020, thereby marking a full-blown recession and second consecutive contraction from -6.10 per cent recorded in the previous quarter (Q2 2020).

According to the report, the performance of the economy in Q3 2020 reflected residual effects of the restrictions of movement and economic activity implemented across the country in early Q2 in response to the COVID-19 pandemic.

In a sectorial breakdown, it was shown that the oil sector plunged by a huge 13.89 per cent (year-on-year), while the non-oil sector receded by 2.51 per cent compared to 4.36 per cent decline (YoY), while manufacturing, trade, and others contracted cumulatively.

Growth in the non-oil sector was driven mainly by Information and Communication, Agriculture and others, with a major contribution from Agriculture (majorly from crop production accounting for 92.93 per cent of Agriculture sector input in the non-oil category), representing 1.39 per cent growth YoY.

There have been some observations noticed from this and it is the situation that mars the agriculture sector of the economy, which has been a major economic driver of this administration.

One would recount the death of over 40 farmers said to have been slaughtered by Boko Haram on December 3, 2020. The farmers were strangely blamed for their deaths. These were the same men who had their throats slit while others lost their heads and this civil unrest puts into perspective what to expect from the agricultural sector where farmers are not safe on their own land.

In another development, the price of onions has also jumped by more than 200 per cent majorly caused by the shortage of supply, flooding and poor storage facilities.

By looking at these two events alone, it is evident that the contribution from the only growth bounded sector of President Muhammadu Buhari’s led administration to the National GDP will dip further as this year winds down into exactly what was predicted by IMF for the final quarter ending in December 2020.

Or perhaps, let us just blame it on the gods for being angry with Nigeria. Nature has probably taken a complete strange order in this administration thereby affecting GDP and crop production quota.  Maybe this is why the African star apple, popularly known to our people as agbalumo, has refused to bear fruit this year.

We cannot overlook the insurgent-bound Borno state in the North-East part of the country, which due to the heavy conflict, cannot contribute the expected $5.18 billion to Nigeria’s GDP with its population of over six million and being the 19th largest state in the country.

Even with this burden, the country seemed not to be learning as Professor Wole Soyinka put it, “Recession didn’t just happen, people looted Nigeria into recession,” and as Tom Tugendhat, chairman of the UK parliament foreign affairs committee said at the parliament’s floor debate on the #EndSARS crisis, that General Gowon [allegedly] left Nigeria with half of the central bank, and moved to London in the 70s.

In his word, “We know, even today, the funds are still here.” What this means is that some people have taken so much from the Nigerian people and are hiding it overseas. “Our banks have been used sadly to profit from illegal transfer”, Tom reiterated. He believes that the UK Government is in a good position to do something to exert pressure on those who have robbed Nigeria’s young people.

Among others who spoke passionately was a member from West Ham (Ms Brown), as well as Olukemi Olufunto Badenoch (née Adegoke; born January 1980) a British Conservative politician, who condemned the freezing of bank accounts of Nigerians who were instrumental in the #EndSARS protest.

Until recently, many Nigerians constantly moved what could have been invested into the country into the United Kingdom investment space.

For example, The Kings Arms Hotel, a 300-year-old inn next to Hampton Court Palace, which once housed Henry VIII, the King of England in 1509, was acquired by TY Danjuma a few years ago.

Also, Hannatu Gentles, the second daughter of the Nigerian-made billionaire, was quoted to have said that the family does not invest in trophy assets. Well said, from the parliamentarian, you may have thought, and maybe only one of few good speeches among many thousand said from the colonialist that has unconsciously become part of Nigeria history that may have not been well told.

It is time to tell the true story from the right perspective, in my opinion, I subscribed to the words of Mariam Makeba, “you don’t expect people who came to invade us to write or say the truth about us. They will always say negative things about us.  But we cannot dwell on the past for too long and as the youth today says, regardless, we move.”

Let me conclude this piece from the word of former President Olusegun Obasanjo published March 5, 2015, by Premium Times, in the headlined piece; How Obasanjo dealt with me, reshaped my life – Tinubu. Former President Obasanjo warned against toying with loyalty to the country. “Loyalty and relationship must be guided and controlled by what is true, what is right and what is in the best interest of the majority.”

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The Future of Payments: Key Trends to Watch in 2025

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Luke Kyohere

By Luke Kyohere

The global payments landscape is undergoing a rapid transformation. New technologies coupled with the rising demand for seamless, secure, and efficient transactions has spurred on an exciting new era of innovation and growth. With 2025 fast approaching, here are important trends that will shape the future of payments:

1. The rise of real-time payments

Until recently, real-time payments have been used in Africa for cross-border mobile money payments, but less so for traditional payments. We are seeing companies like Mastercard investing in this area, as well as central banks in Africa putting focus on this. 

2. Cashless payments will increase

In 2025, we will see the continued acceleration of cashless payments across Africa. B2B payments in particular will also increase. Digital payments began between individuals but are now becoming commonplace for larger corporate transactions. 

3. Digital currency will hit mainstream

In the cryptocurrency space, we will see an increase in the use of stablecoins like United States Digital Currency (USDC) and Tether (USDT) which are linked to US dollars. These will come to replace traditional cryptocurrencies as their price point is more stable. This year, many countries will begin preparing for Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs), government-backed digital currencies which use blockchain. 

The increased uptake of digital currencies reflects the maturity of distributed ledger technology and improved API availability. 

4. Increased government oversight

As adoption of digital currencies will increase, governments will also put more focus into monitoring these flows. In particular, this will centre on companies and banks rather than individuals. The goal of this will be to control and occasionally curb runaway foreign exchange (FX) rates.

5. Business leaders buy into AI technology

In 2025, we will see many business leaders buying into AI through respected providers relying on well-researched platforms and huge data sets. Most companies don’t have the budget to invest in their own research and development in AI, so many are now opting to ‘buy’ into the technology rather than ‘build’ it themselves. Moreover, many businesses are concerned about the risks associated with data ownership and accuracy so buying software is another way to avoid this risk. 

6. Continued AI Adoption in Payments

In payments, the proliferation of AI will continue to improve user experience and increase security.  To detect fraud, AI is used to track patterns and payment flows in real-time. If unusual activity is detected, the technology can be used to flag or even block payments which may be fraudulent. 

When it comes to user experience, we will also see AI being used to improve the interface design of payment platforms. The technology will also increasingly be used for translation for international payment platforms.

7. Rise of Super Apps

To get more from their platforms, mobile network operators are building comprehensive service platforms, integrating multiple payment experiences into a single app. This reflects the shift of many users moving from text-based services to mobile apps. Rather than offering a single service, super apps are packing many other services into a single app. For example, apps which may have previously been used primarily for lending, now have options for saving and paying bills. 

8. Business strategy shift

Recent major technological changes will force business leaders to focus on much shorter prediction and reaction cycles. Because the rate of change has been unprecedented in the past year, this will force decision-makers to adapt quickly, be decisive and nimble. 

As the payments space evolves,  businesses, banks, and governments must continually embrace innovation, collaboration, and prioritise customer needs. These efforts build a more inclusive, secure, and efficient payment system that supports local to global economic growth – enabling true financial inclusion across borders.

Luke Kyohere is the Group Chief Product and Innovation Officer at Onafriq

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Ghana’s Democratic Triumph: A Call to Action for Nigeria’s 2027 Elections

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ghana election 2024

In a heartfelt statement released today, the Conference of Nigeria Political Parties (CNPP) has extended its warmest congratulations to Ghana’s President-Elect, emphasizing the importance of learning from Ghana’s recent electoral success as Nigeria gears up for its 2027 general elections.

In a statement signed by its Deputy National Publicity Secretary, Comrade James Ezema, the CNPP highlighted the need for Nigeria to reclaim its status as a leader in democratic governance in Africa.

“The recent victory of Ghana’s President-Elect is a testament to the maturity and resilience of Ghana’s democracy,” the CNPP stated. “As we celebrate this achievement, we must reflect on the lessons that Nigeria can learn from our West African neighbour.”

The CNPP’s message underscored the significance of free, fair, and credible elections, a standard that Ghana has set and one that Nigeria has previously achieved under former President Goodluck Jonathan in 2015. “It is high time for Nigeria to reclaim its position as a beacon of democracy in Africa,” the CNPP asserted, calling for a renewed commitment to the electoral process.

Central to CNPP’s message is the insistence that “the will of the people must be supreme in Nigeria’s electoral processes.” The umbrella body of all registered political parties and political associations in Nigeria CNPP emphasized the necessity of an electoral system that genuinely reflects the wishes of the Nigerian populace. “We must strive to create an environment where elections are free from manipulation, violence, and intimidation,” the CNPP urged, calling on the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) to take decisive action to ensure the integrity of the electoral process.

The CNPP also expressed concern over premature declarations regarding the 2027 elections, stating, “It is disheartening to note that some individuals are already announcing that there is no vacancy in Aso Rock in 2027. This kind of statement not only undermines the democratic principles that our nation holds dear but also distracts from the pressing need for the current administration to earn the trust of the electorate.”

The CNPP viewed the upcoming elections as a pivotal moment for Nigeria. “The 2027 general elections present a unique opportunity for Nigeria to reclaim its position as a leader in democratic governance in Africa,” it remarked. The body called on all stakeholders — including the executive, legislature, judiciary, the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), and civil society organisations — to collaborate in ensuring that elections are transparent, credible, and reflective of the will of the Nigerian people.

As the most populous African country prepares for the 2027 elections, the CNPP urged all Nigerians to remain vigilant and committed to democratic principles. “We must work together to ensure that our elections are free from violence, intimidation, and manipulation,” the statement stated, reaffirming the CNPP’s commitment to promoting a peaceful and credible electoral process.

In conclusion, the CNPP congratulated the President-Elect of Ghana and the Ghanaian people on their remarkable achievements.

“We look forward to learning from their experience and working together to strengthen democracy in our region,” the CNPP concluded.

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The Need to Promote Equality, Equity and Fairness in Nigeria’s Proposed Tax Reforms

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tax reform recommendations

By Kenechukwu Aguolu

The proposed tax reform, involving four tax bills introduced by the Federal Government, has received significant criticism. Notably, it was rejected by the Governors’ Forum but was still forwarded to the National Assembly. Unlike the various bold economic decisions made by this government, concessions will likely need to be made on these tax reforms, which involve legislative amendments and therefore cannot be imposed by the executive. This article highlights the purposes of taxation, the qualities of a good tax system, and some of the implications of the proposed tax reforms.

One of the major purposes of taxation is to generate revenue for the government to finance its activities. A good tax system should raise sufficient revenue for the government to fund its operations, and support economic and infrastructural development. For any country to achieve meaningful progress, its tax-to-GDP ratio should be at least 15%. Currently, Nigeria’s tax-to-GDP ratio is less than 11%. The proposed tax reforms aim to increase this ratio to 18% within the next three years.

A good tax system should also promote income redistribution and equality by implementing progressive tax policies. In line with this, the proposed tax reforms favour low-income earners. For example, individuals earning less than one million naira annually are exempted from personal income tax. Additionally, essential goods and services such as food, accommodation, and transportation, which constitute a significant portion of household consumption for low- and middle-income groups, are to be exempted from VAT.

In addition to equality, a good tax system should ensure equity and fairness, a key area of contention surrounding the proposed reforms. If implemented, the amendments to the Value Added Tax could lead to a significant reduction in the federal allocation for some states; impairing their ability to finance government operations and development projects. The VAT amendments should be holistically revisited to promote fairness and national unity.

The establishment of a single agency to collect government taxes, the Nigeria Revenue Service, could reduce loopholes that have previously resulted in revenue losses, provided proper controls are put in place. It is logically easier to monitor revenue collection by one agency than by multiple agencies. However, this is not a magical solution. With automation, revenue collection can be seamless whether it is managed by one agency or several, as long as monitoring and accountability measures are implemented effectively.

The proposed tax reforms by the Federal Government are well-intentioned. However, all concerns raised by Nigerians should be looked into, and concessions should be made where necessary. Policies are more effective when they are adapted to suit the unique characteristics of a nation, rather than adopted wholesale. A good tax system should aim to raise sufficient revenue, ensure equitable income distribution, and promote equality, equity, and fairness.

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