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Oil Prices Jump 2% as Investors Expect Tighter Crude Supplies

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By Adedapo Adesanya

Oil prices witnessed a 2 per cent rise on Thursday on expectations of tighter supplies through 2021 as economies recover from the coronavirus crisis.

The Brent crude extended previous gains by $1.63 or 2.1 per cent to close at $73.57 while the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude rose by $1.67 or 2.4 per cent to trade at $71.67 per barrel.

In what started as a very hectic week with prices falling more than $5 on Monday, the market has recouped all of those losses as investors expect overall crude demand to stay strong.

Following the recent headwind, forecasts also showed that demand was set to outstrip supply in the second half of the year.

This seemed to calm the market after the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and other producers including Russia known as OPEC+ agreed this week on a deal to boost oil supply by 400,000 barrels per day from August to December to cool prices and meet growing demand.

With demand holding up, the market is starting to see that the additional crude from the cartel will not be enough to keep the market balanced. This is as inventories are projected to continue to fall, both in the United States and across some developing countries.

Crude inventories in the US, the world’s top oil consumer, rose unexpectedly by 2.1 million barrels last week to 439.7 million barrels, up for the first time since May, US Energy Information Administration data showed, unable to register the ninth straight week of drops.

Analysts from Morgan Stanley forecast that global benchmark Brent will trade in the mid to high-$70s per barrel for the remainder of 2021, further adding support to the market.

Barclays analysts also expected a faster-than-expected draw in global oil inventories to pre-pandemic levels, prompting the bank to raise its 2021 oil price forecast by $3 to $5 to average $69 a barrel.

This will be a result of tightening the market as the OPEC+ alliance may have settled any issue that might bring division among its members.

Amid these, the market continues to face pressure as surging COVID-19 cases of the Delta variant in the United States, Britain, Japan and other countries may threaten mobility and impact prices and demand.

Adedapo Adesanya is a journalist, polymath, and connoisseur of everything art. When he is not writing, he has his nose buried in one of the many books or articles he has bookmarked or simply listening to good music with a bottle of beer or wine. He supports the greatest club in the world, Manchester United F.C.

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Economy

Naira Further Falls to N1.355/$1 at Official FX Market

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By Adedapo Adesanya

The woes of the Nigerian Naira in the Nigerian Autonomous Foreign Exchange Market (NAFEX) further continued on Tuesday, February 24.

During the session, the domestic currency weakened against the United States Dollar by N6.13 or 0.45 per cent to N1,355.37/$1 from the N1,349.24/$1 it was traded in the previous trading day.

The local currency also moved southwards on Tuesday in the same market window against the Pound Sterling after it lost N6.39 to trade at N1,828.26/£1 versus Monday’s closing price of N1,821.87/£1, and against the Euro, it depreciated by N4.94 to close at N1,596.36/€1, in contrast to the preceding session’s N1,591.42/€1.

Similarly, the Naira crashed against the US Dollar at the GTBank FX counter yesterday by N4 to settle at N1,361/$1 versus the N1,357/$1 it was exchanged a day earlier, and at the parallel market, it remained unchanged at N1,365/$1.

The fall of the Naira coincided with the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) buying US Dollars from the market to slow down the rapid rise of the nation’s legal tender. Latest information showed that last week, the apex bank bought about $189.80 million to reduce excess Dollar supply and control how fast the Naira was gaining value.

The rationale was to keep foreign investors from pulling their money out of Nigeria’s fixed-income market. If they sell their investments, it could increase demand for US Dollars and lead to more Dollar outflow from the economy.

Meanwhile, Mr Yemi Cardoso, the Governor of the CBN, said Nigeria’s gross external reserves have risen to $50.45 billion – the highest level in 13 years, while speaking after the 304th meeting of the monetary policy committee (MPC) of the CBN held on February 23 and 24.

The committee also reduced interest rates by 50 basis points to 26.50 per cent from 27 per cent after inflation eased in January 2026.

As for the cryptocurrency market, losses on concerns by embattled software businesses that artificial intelligence (AI) tools will destroy their business models continued and overturned some rallies on Tuesday.

Binance Coin (BNB) lost 2.1 per cent to sell for $585.41, Cardano (ADA) dropped 1.8 per cent to trade at $0.2595, Dogecoin (DOGE) went down by 1.5 per cent to $0.0920, Bitcoin (BTC) shrank by 1.2 per cent to $64,098.80, Litecoin (LTC) slipped 1.1 per cent to $51.31, Ripple (XRP) slumped 0.6 per cent to $1.35, and Ethereum (ETH) declined by 0.4 per cent to $1,857.75.

However, Solana (SOL) appreciated by 0.2 per cent to sell at $78.95. while the US Dollar Tether (USDT) and the US Dollar Coin (USDC) traded flat at $1.00 each.

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Economy

Oil Slides as Iran Signals Willingness to Seal US Nuclear Deal

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By Adedapo Adesanya

Oil depreciated on Tuesday after Iran said it was prepared to take any necessary steps to clinch a deal with the United States ahead of nuclear talks later this week, with Brent futures shedding 72 cents or 1.0 per cent to trade at $70.77 per barrel, and the US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures declining by 68 cents or 1.0 per cent to $65.63 a barrel.

Iran, the third-biggest crude producer in the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), and the US will hold a third round of nuclear talks on Thursday in Geneva, Switzerland.

America wants Iran to give up its nuclear programme, which the country has denied trying to develop an atomic weapon.

Meanwhile, Iran’s deputy foreign minister said on Tuesday that it was ready to take any necessary steps to reach a deal with the US.

However, the US State Department is pulling out non-essential government personnel and their families from its embassy in Beirut, Lebanon, as concerns mount about the risk of a military conflict with Iran.

The US has deployed a vast naval force near the Iranian coast ahead of possible strikes on the Islamic Republic. The American president, on February 19, said he was giving Iran about 10 to 15 days to make a deal.

Also, the US began collecting a temporary new 10 per cent global import tariff on Tuesday, but President Trump’s administration was working to increase it to 15 per cent, a development that has led to confusion after the country’s Supreme Court ruling.

On the supply front, trading houses and buyers of Venezuelan oil have chartered the first very large crude carriers to export from the South American country since a supply deal began between the US and Venezuela. This is set to speed up shipments from March while boosting deliveries to India.

The European Commission will submit a legal proposal to permanently ban Russian oil imports on April 15.

The American Petroleum Institute (API) estimated that crude oil inventories in the United States rose by 11.4 million barrels in the week ending February 20, after falling by 609,000 barrels in the week prior. Official data from the US Energy Information Agency (EIA) will be released later on Wednesday.

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Nigeria to Export New Crude Grade Cawthorne in March

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By Adedapo Adesanya

The Nigerian National Petroleum Company (NNPC) Limited is set to commence export of a new light, sweet crude grade known as Cawthorne from March 2026.

According to a report by Reuters, an NNPC spokesperson confirmed the development, describing it as part of efforts to increase output and consolidate Nigeria’s recent recovery in crude oil production.

The move aligns with Nigeria’s broader strategy to boost production after years of constraints caused by pipeline vandalism, crude theft, and unrest in oil-producing regions.

This follows the launch of two other new grades, Obodo in 2025 and Utapate in 2024, Nigeria, whic,h as Africa’s top oil exporter, seeks to strengthen its standing within the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+)

Cawthorne crude is scheduled for export in the third week of March and has an API gravity of 36.4, making it similar in quality to Nigeria’s Bonny Light, which is prized for high petrol and diesel yields.

According to Reuters, citing a trading source, the state oil national company issued a tender last week for cargo loading between March 24 and 25.

Analysts at Kpler noted that the new grade is expected to be exported via the Floating Storage and Offloading (FSO) vessel Cawthorne, which has a storage capacity of about 2.2 million barrels. The vessel is designed to enhance transportation and production from Oil Mining Lease (OML) 18 and nearby assets in the Eastern Niger Delta.

Kpler estimates that, based on storage capacity, Cawthorne could increase Nigeria’s crude and condensate output from roughly 1.65 million barrels per day to around 1.7 million barrels per day for the remainder of the year.

Nigeria’s crude oil production recently dropped from the OPEC+ quota of 1.5 million barrels per day, with output at 1.48 million barrels per day recorded in January, according to OPEC data.

Beyond increasing Nigeria’s crude offerings to the international market, the introduction of Cawthorne could also attract buyers seeking specific light, sweet crude qualities, buoy foreign exchange earnings, which would help strengthen government revenue and ease borrowing needs.

New crude grades are typically differentiated by sulfur content, API gravity, and production source, enabling producers to target specific refinery configurations and market segments.

In November 2024, NNPC officially launched the Utapate crude oil blend in the international market, describing it as a milestone for Nigeria’s export profile.

Earlier in July 2024, NNPC and its partner, Sterling Oil Exploration & Energy Production Company (SEEPCO), lifted the first 950,000-barrel cargo of Utapate crude, which was shipped to Spain.

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