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Economy

Addressing Problem of Weak Revenue Generation in Nigeria

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edo Revenue Collection

By FSDH Research

The 2018-2020 Medium-Term Expenditure Framework (MTEF) and the Fiscal Strategy Paper (FSP) that the Federal Government of Nigeria (FGN) released on 20 October, 2017 will focus on some areas which we think are critical in raising the revenue generating capacity of the Nigerian economy.

The MTEF/FSP forms the basis on which the FGN’s yearly budget is developed. The focus of the 2018-2020 MTEF/FSP is to achieve the following: broaden revenue receipts by identifying and plugging revenue leakages; improve the efficiency and quality of capital spending; place greater emphasis on critical infrastructure; rationalise recurrent expenditure; and fiscal consolidation to maintain the fiscal deficit below 3% of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP).

FSDH Research’s analysis of the data that the International Monetary Fund (IMF) released shows that Nigeria recorded the lowest revenue to GDP ratio (at 11%) between 2010 and 2016 among some selected countries.

Some of the reasons for the low performance are: revenue leakages; weak infrastructure and institutions; inadequate structures to unlock revenue from agriculture, which is the largest contributor to the country’s GDP; and overreliance on one product (oil) as the source of revenue.

Some of the effects of this situation are widespread poverty and income inequality; and unsustainably high debt service to revenue.

Thus, concerted polices and efforts are required to address these challenges in order to develop the Nigerian economy.

The MTEF projects a benchmark crude oil price of US$45 per barrel for 2018 (US$44.5 in 2017 budget); oil production estimate of 2.3mbd (2.2mbd in 2017); and an average exchange rate of N305/US$ same as in 2017.

It projects a GDP growth rate at 3.5% in 2018 in line with the projection of FSDH Research but higher than the projection of IMF at 1.9%.

The MTEF expects inflation rate to end the year 2018 at 12.42% lower than 15.74% for 2017. Based on these assumptions, estimated aggregate revenue for the FGN for 2018 is N5.65trn, 11% higher than N5.08trn approved in the 2017 budget.

The oil revenue is projected to contribute N2.44trn. Non-oil revenues (Companies Income Tax, Value Added Tax, Customs and Excise duties, and Federation Account Levies) are estimated at N1.39trn; Independent Revenue: N847.95bn; Recoveries: N512.44bn; and Others (including mining): N459.66bn.

The proposed expenditure for 2018 is N8.60trn, 15.59% increase over 2017 of N7.44trn. Adjusting the proposed expenditure by the projected inflation rate to end the year, it represents a marginal growth in real term.

The aggregate expenditure comprises: Statutory Transfers: N451.46bn; Debt Service: N2.03trn; Sinking Fund: N220bn; Recurrent Expenditure: N3.17trn; Special Intervention Programme: N350bn and Capital Expenditure of N2.28trn.

This fiscal plan will result in a deficit of N2.95trn for 2018, which is about 2.61% of GDP.

FSDH Research notes that the expected average oil production is aggressive, while the expected average exchange rate is conservative.

In addition, the expected capital expenditure of about N7.22trn between 2018 and 2020 is not sufficient to lift the economy from the current infrastructure deficiency.

FSDH Research reiterates that a well functional infrastructure is critical for the economy to generate revenue and since government is constrained by funds to address this, it is imperative to develop other constructive and innovative ways to fund the infrastructure. The rough estimate of the infrastructure expenditure gap in Nigeria at the moment is about N30trn.

Dipo Olowookere is a journalist based in Nigeria that has passion for reporting business news stories. At his leisure time, he watches football and supports 3SC of Ibadan. Mr Olowookere can be reached via [email protected]

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Economy

Oil Exports to Drop as Shell Commences Maintenance on Bonga FPSO

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Bonga FPSO

By Adedapo Adesanya

Nigeria’s oil exports will drop in February following the shutdown of the Bonga Floating Production Storage and Offloading (FPSO) vessel scheduled for turnaround maintenance.

Shell Nigeria Exploration and Production Company (SNEPCo) Limited confirmed the development in a statement issued, adding that gas output will also decline during the maintenance period.

This comes as SNEPCo begun turnaround maintenance on the Bonga FPSO, the statement signed by its Communications Manager, Mrs Gladys Afam-Anadu, said, describing the exercise as a statutory integrity assurance programme designed to extend the facility’s operational lifespan.

SNEPCo Managing Director, Mr Ronald Adams, said the maintenance would ensure safe, efficient operations for another 15 years.

“The scheduled maintenance is designed to reduce unplanned deferments and strengthen the asset’s overall resilience.

“We expect to resume operations in March following completion of the turnaround,” he said.

Mr Adams said the scope included inspections, certification, regulatory checks, integrity upgrades, engineering modifications and subsea assurance activities.

“The FPSO, about 120 kilometres offshore in over 1,000 metres of water, can produce 225,000 barrels of oil daily.

“It also produces 150 million standard cubic feet of gas per day,” he said.

He said maintaining the facility was critical to Nigeria’s production stability, energy security and revenue objectives.

Mr Adams noted that the 2024 Final Investment Decision on Bonga North increased the importance of the FPSO’s reliability. He said the turnaround would prepare the facility for additional volumes from the Bonga North subsea tie-back project.

According to him, the last turnaround maintenance was conducted in October 2022.

“On February 1, 2023, the asset produced its one billionth barrel since operations began in 2005,” Mr Adams said.

SNEPCo operates the Bonga field in partnership with Esso Exploration and Production Nigeria (Deepwater) Limited and Nigerian Agip Exploration Limited, under a Production Sharing Contract with the Nigerian National Petroleum Company (NNPC) Limited.

The last turnaround maintenance activity on the FPSO took place in October 2022. On February 1, the following year, the asset delivered its 1 billionth barrel of oil since production commenced in 2005.

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Economy

Nigeria Earns N1.17trn from Petroleum Sector in November 2025

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Petroleum Sector

By Adedapo Adesanya

Nigeria earned N1.17 trillion from the oil and gas industry in November 2025, lower than the N1.396 trillion generated in October 2025 by 16.2 per cent, according to data presented to the Federation Account Allocation Committee (FAAC) by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN).

The CBN, in the latest data available, noted that the N1.17 trillion earnings from the petroleum industry in November 2025 represented 96.4 per cent of the N1.214 trillion revenue budgeted for the sector for the month under review.

In comparison, revenue from the petroleum industry in October 2025 represented 94.71 per cent of the N1.474 trillion budgeted for the sector in the month.

In its breakdown of revenue from the oil and gas industry in November 2025, the central bank stated that the country earned N37.134 billion from crude oil sales, climbing by 395.58 per cent from N7.493 trillion recorded in the previous month; while revenue from gas sales appreciated by 25.22 per cent to N7.265 billion in November, compared with N5.802 billion recorded in October 2025.

Furthermore, the CBN noted that revenue from crude oil royalties dipped by 25.6 per cent, from N790.086 billion in October 2025 to N587.865 billion in November; while miscellaneous oil revenue more than doubled to N1.356 billion, from N447.279 million in October 2025.

Also, it stated that royalties from gas dipped by 38.1 per cent to N9.405 billion in November, from N15.195 billion in October, while the country earned N51.842 billion from gas flare penalties in November 2025, down from N61.898 billion recorded in the previous month.

The apex bank added that revenue from companies’ income tax (CIT) from upstream oil industry operations stood at N106.106 billion in the month under review, as against N73.025 billion in October 2025.

It also stated that revenue from Petroleum Profit Tax (PPT) stood at N301.471 billion; rentals – N775.162 million; while taxes stood at N67.242 billion in November 2025; as against N242.621 billion, N3.197 billion, and N196.277 billion in October 2025.

In addition, the apex bank reported that from the country’s oil earnings in November 2025, N18.163 billion was deducted for 13 per cent refund on subsidy, priority projects and Police Trust Fund from 1999 to 2021; while N2.872 billion was deducted by the Nigerian National Petroleum Company (NNPC) Limited in respect of its 13 per cent management fee and frontier exploration fund.

It added that N26.401 billion was deducted and collected by the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) in October 2025, being four per cent cost of collection; while N49.768 billion was transferred to the Midstream and Downstream Gas Infrastructure Fund from gas flare penalties in the same month.

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Economy

NGX Weekly Trading Volume, Value Down as Investors Weigh Risks, Benefits

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NGX 30 Index

By Dipo Olowookere

The decision of investors weighing the risks and benefits of holding Nigerian stocks took a toll on the Nigerian Exchange (NGX) Limited last week.

The bourse suffered a marginal week-on-week 0.09 per cent loss, with the All-Share Index (ASI) down to 165,370.40 points. However, the market capitalisation gained 0.18 per cent in the five-day trading week to settle at N106.153 trillion.

Data from Customs Street indicated that all other indices finished higher apart from the NGX 30, NGX CG, premium, banking, pension, growth and pension broad indices, which respectively depreciated by 0.13 per cent, 0.63 per cent, 0.75 per cent, 0.63 per cent, 0.41 per cent, 1.13 per cent, and 0.22 per cent, respectively.

The level of activity also depleted in the week as the market recorded a turnover of 3.087 billion shares worth N81.505 billion in 222,185 deals compared with the 3.748 billion shares valued at N99.865 billion traded in 237,179 deals a week earlier.

The financial services industry was the most active with 1.495 billion shares valued at N33.923 billion traded in 83,939 deals, contributing 48.45 per cent and 41.62 per cent to the total trading volume and value apiece.

The services sector sold 443.222 million equities worth N4.936 billion in 17,615 deals, and the ICT space transacted 279.520 million stocks valued at N6.443 billion in 24,552 deals.

The three most active stocks for the week were Veritas Kapital Assurance, Cutix, and Secure Electronic Technology, accounting for 513.382 million units worth N1.139 billion in 4,895 deals, contributing 16.63 per cent and 1.40 per cent to the total trading volume and value, respectively.

Business Post reports that 44 stocks appreciated during the week versus 58 stocks a week earlier, 49 shares depreciated versus 40 shares in the previous week, and 55 equities closed flat versus 50 equities in the preceding week.

Zichis was the best-performing stock with a price appreciation of 59.92 per cent to sell for N4.19, Omatek expanded by 49.25 per cent to N3.00, Union Homes REIT grew by 32.94 per cent to N94.85, Morison Industries surged by 32.85 per cent to N9.99, and SCOA Nigeria grew by 32.77 per cent to N31.60.

Neimeth ended the week as worst-performing stock after it shed 26.04 per cent to trade at N9.80, Living Trust Mortgage Bank shrank by 21.36 per cent to N4.05, May and Baker lost 19.54 per cent to quote at N35.00, Livestock Feeds crashed by 13.70 per cent to N6.30, and Austin Laz dropped 13.14 per cent to finish at N3.90.

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