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AEC Foresees Nigeria’s Crude Oil Production at 1.46 million barrels per day

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Crude Oil Production

By Adedapo Adesanya

Nigeria will maintain its position as one of Africa’s leading crude oil producers as well as one of the continent’s top three gas suppliers between 2022 and 2025, according to the Q1 2022 Outlook of the African Energy Chamber (AEC).

It also said this will provide an opportunity for the West African country to leverage its energy resources for economic growth while addressing global energy demand.

Nigeria represents one of Africa’s heavyweights when it comes to hydrocarbon exploration and production with over 36 billion barrels of oil and 200 trillion cubic feet of natural gas, the country has managed to position itself as both an attractive upstream market and competitive producer.

According to the outlook, Nigeria will produce 1.46 million barrels per day of crude oil out of the 6.35 million barrels per day that Africa as a whole will produce during the year, reaffirming the country’s position as a continental energy hub as production in the West African state peaks in 2023.

Out of the 36 billion barrels of oil reserves Nigeria holds, just over 25 per cent is currently produced from deepwater projects, underlining a huge opportunity for Nigeria to expand partnerships and investment to ramp up production and increase its role in both the continental and global energy landscape.

Speaking on this, Mr NJ Ayuk, Executive Chairman of the AEC said, “The recent $1.2 billion deal between Nigeria’s Seplat Energy and American energy firm ExxonMobil, in which the multinational will continue with its deep-water projects whilst handing over onshore projects, is an indication of the huge potential the country’s offshore projects have in the near future in addressing energy needs as energy consumption increases.

“By increasing focus on these projects, accelerating exploration and production in key basins, Nigeria has the ability to unleash its full energy potential.”

The chamber also called for more investments within the country’s downstream sector with inadequate infrastructure slowing down oil production and increasing Nigeria’s reliance on fuel imports.

Nigeria imports up to 1.25 million metric tons per month of gasoline due to inadequate domestic refining capacity.

Accordingly, the $12 billion Dangote refinery project in Lagos, slated to kickstart operations during Q4 of 2022 with a processing capacity of 540,000 barrels per day and partly owned by state-company the Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation, is an example of the willingness of Nigeria to set itself as an oil heavyweight while expanding its oil and gas capabilities to meet domestic, regional and global energy needs.

Meanwhile, on the gas front, the AEC outlook shows that Nigeria has also retained its spot amongst Africa’s main gas producers in 2022. An annual production capacity of 1,450 billion cubic feet is expected as the country recovers from 2020 low production levels.

Existing gas producing fields, as well as those currently under development, are expected to sustain the country’s gas production through to 2025.

Despite factors such as vandalism of infrastructure which are restraining optimal gas and oil exportation, as well as the high costs and emission rates associated with deep-water projects driving majors to diversify their portfolios, greenfield investments in Nigeria and its African counterparts will increase capital expenditure across the continent to $30 billion in 2022, providing an opportunity for new projects to come online and for leading hydrocarbon producers such as Nigeria to modernize and build new infrastructure as well as expand exploration and production.

On the regulation, the implementation of the Petroleum Industry Bill (PIB) in 2021 by the Nigerian government will provide regulatory clarity on royalties and other issues that have previously made it difficult for oil and gas E&P companies and downstream market players to expand investments within the country’s market.

Now, with the implementation of the PIB, the Chamber said Nigeria is better positioned, now more than ever, to attract investments and accelerate development in 2022 and beyond.

The AEC reiterated that Nigeria is positioned to lead African investment with proven oil and gas reserves as well as a reformed regulatory landscape making the sector increasingly attractive for foreign capital.

Adedapo Adesanya is a journalist, polymath, and connoisseur of everything art. When he is not writing, he has his nose buried in one of the many books or articles he has bookmarked or simply listening to good music with a bottle of beer or wine. He supports the greatest club in the world, Manchester United F.C.

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Economy

Nigeria, UK Move to Close £1.2bn Trade Data Gap

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trade value

By Adedapo Adesanya

Nigeria and the United Kingdom are moving to tackle a long-standing £1.2 billion discrepancy in their trade records, with both countries agreeing to develop a structured data-sharing system aimed at improving transparency and accountability across bilateral commerce.

The agreement was reached during a high-level meeting in London on March 18, 2026, held on the sidelines of President Bola Tinubu’s State Visit, under the Nigeria–United Kingdom Enhanced Trade and Investment Partnership (ETIP).

According to a statement by Nigeria Customs Service (NCS) spokesperson, Mr Abdullahi Maiwada, the talks signal a shift toward deeper operational cooperation between both countries’ customs authorities.

At the centre of the discussions was a persistent mismatch in trade figures. While Nigeria recorded about £504 million worth of imports from the UK in 2024, British records show exports to Nigeria at approximately £1.7 billion for the same period, leaving a gap of roughly £1.2 billion.

To address this, the two countries agreed to explore a pre-arrival data exchange framework that will connect their digital customs systems, with the aim of improving risk management, reconciling trade data, and strengthening compliance monitoring along the corridor.

The meeting was led by Comptroller-General of Customs, Mr Adewale Adeniyi and Ms Megan Shaw, Head of International Customs and Border Engagement at His Majesty’s Revenue and Customs (HMRC), and also focused on customs modernisation and data transparency.

Mr Adeniyi underscored the broader economic implications of the initiative, noting that customs collaboration plays a central role in trade facilitation.

“Effective customs cooperation remains a critical enabler of economic growth and sustainable trade development,” he said.

He added that “customs administrations serve as the frontline institutions responsible for ensuring that trade flows between both countries are transparent, secure, and mutually beneficial.”

The Nigeria–UK trade relationship spans multiple sectors, including industrial goods, agriculture, energy, and consumer products — all of which depend heavily on efficient port and border operations.

Beyond addressing data gaps, the meeting also highlighted ongoing modernisation efforts on both sides. The UK showcased advancements in artificial intelligence-driven trade tools, digital verification systems, and real-time analytics designed to enhance cargo processing, risk assessment, and border security.

The engagement further produced plans for a Customs Mutual Administrative Assistance Framework, alongside technical groundwork for capacity building, knowledge exchange, and a joint engagement mechanism under the ETIP platform.

Mr Maiwada said the outcomes are expected to strengthen Nigeria’s trade ecosystem and support broader economic reforms.

“The NCS has reaffirmed its commitment to deepening international partnerships as part of a broader modernisation agenda designed to promote transparency, efficiency, and competitiveness in Nigeria’s trading environment,” the statement said.

It added that “insights from this engagement will strengthen its operational capacity, enhance trade facilitation, and support Nigeria’s economic reform objectives under the Renewed Hope programme.”

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Economy

Dangote Refinery Imports $3.74bn Crude in 2025 to Bridge Supply Gap

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Dangote refinery import petrol

By Adedapo Adesanya

Dangote Petroleum Refinery imported a total of $3.74 billion) worth of crude oil in 2025, to make up for shortfalls that threatened the plant’s 650,000-barrel-a-day operational capacity.

The data disclosed in the Central Bank of Nigeria’s Balance of Payments report noted that “Crude oil imports of $3.74 billion by Dangote Refinery” contributed to movements in the country’s current account position, as Nigeria imported crude oil worth N5.734 trillion between January and December 2025.

Last year, as the Nigerian National Petroleum Company (NNPC), which is the refinery’s main trade partner and minority stakeholder, faced its challenges, the company had to forge alternative supply links. This led to the importation of crude from Brazil, Equatorial Guinea, Angola, Algeria, and the US, among others.

For instance, in March 2025, the company said it now counts Brazil and Equatorial Guinea among its global oil suppliers, receiving up to 1 million barrels of the medium-sweet grade Tupi crude at the refinery on March 26 from Brazil’s Petrobras.

Meanwhile, crude oil exports dropped from $36.85 billion in 2024 to $31.54 billion in 2025, representing a 14.41 per cent decline, further shaping the external balance.

The report added that the refinery’s operations also reduced Nigeria’s reliance on imported fuel, noting that “availability of refined petroleum products from Dangote Refinery also led to a substantial decline in fuel imports.”

Specifically, refined petroleum product imports fell sharply to $10.00 billion in 2025 from $14.06 billion in 2024, representing a 28.9 per cent decline, while total oil-related imports also eased.

However, this was offset by a rise in non-oil imports, which increased from $25.74 billion to $29.24 billion, up 13.6 per cent year-on-year, reflecting sustained demand for foreign goods.

At the same time, the goods account remained in surplus at $14.51 billion in 2025, rising from $13.17 billion in 2024, supported largely by activities linked to the Dangote refinery and improved export performance in other segments.

The CBN stated that the stronger goods balance was driven by “significant export of refined petroleum products worth $5.85bn by Dangote Refinery,” alongside increased gas exports to other economies.

Nigeria posted a current account surplus of $14.04 billion in 2025, lower than the $19.03 billion recorded in 2024 but significantly higher than $6.42 billion in 2023. The decline from 2024 was driven partly by structural changes in oil trade flows, including crude imports for domestic refining, according to the report.

Pressure on the current account came from higher external payments. Net outflows for services rose from $13.36 billion in 2024 to $14.58 billion in 2025, driven by increased spending on transport, travel, insurance, and other services.

Similarly, net outflows in the primary income account surged by 60.88 per cent to $9.09 billion, largely due to higher dividend and interest payments to foreign investors.

In contrast, secondary income inflows declined slightly from $24.88 billion in 2024 to $23.20 billion in 2025, as official development assistance and personal transfers weakened, although remittances remained a key source of inflow, as domestic refineries grappled with persistent feedstock shortages, exposing a deepening supply paradox in the country’s oil sector.

This comes despite the Federal Government’s much-publicised naira-for-crude policy designed to prioritise local supply.

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Economy

Sovereign Trust Insurance Submits Application for N5.0bn Rights Issue

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Sovereign Trust Insurance

By Aduragbemi Omiyale

An application has been submitted by Sovereign Trust Insurance Plc for its proposed N5.0 billion rights issue.

The application was sent to the Nigerian Exchange (NGX) Limited, and it is for approval to list shares from the exercise when issued to qualifying shareholders.

A notice signed by the Head of Issuer Regulation Department of the exchange, Mr Godstime Iwenekhai, disclosed that the request was filed on behalf of the underwriting firm by its stockbrokers, Cordros Securities Limited, Dynamic Portfolio Limited and Cedar of Lebanon Securities.

The company intends to raise about N5.022 billion from the rights issue to boost its capital base, as demanded by the National Insurance Commission (NAICOM) for insurers in the country.

Sovereign Trust Insurance plans to issue 2,510,848,144 ordinary shares of 50 Kobo each at N2.00 per share on the basis of three new ordinary shares for every 17 existing ordinary shares held as of the close of business on Tuesday, March 17, 2026.

“Trading license holders are hereby notified that Sovereign Trust Insurance has through its stockbrokers, Cordros Securities Limited, Dynamic Portfolio Limited and Cedar of Lebanon Securities, submitted an application to Nigerian Exchange Limited for the approval and listing of a rights issue of 2,510,848,144 ordinary shares of 50 Kobo each at N2.00 per share on the basis of three new ordinary shares for every 17 existing ordinary shares held as of the close of business on Tuesday, March 17, 2026,” the notification read.

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