Economy
Seplat, ExxonMobil Deal Positive for Economy—Wood Mackenzie
Seplat Energy Plc on February 25 announced an agreement to acquire the entire share capital of Mobil Producing Nigeria Unlimited (MPNU), a subsidiary of ExxonMobil.
In its recent insight, Wood Mackenzie, a trusted intelligence provider that empowers decision-makers with unique insights on the world’s natural resources said in the energy transition era, both ExxonMobil and Seplat will be pleased with the deal, adding that the deal offers huge upside for oil as well as gas.
Also, Wood Mackenzie, the leading research and consultancy business for the global energy, power and renewable, resurface, chemicals, metals and mining industry, said because this deal is a corporate acquisition, the Nigerian National Petroleum Company (NNPC) Limited has no rights to pre-empt a deal under the Joint Operating Agreement (JOA), which governs the JV, rather than ministerial consent would be the only hurdle remaining, “although nothing can be taken for granted”.
MPNU has a 40 per cent operated interest in a Joint Venture with NNPC (60 per cent). The JV includes OMLs 67, 68, 70, 104, the Qua Iboe oil export terminal. MPNU also has a 51percent interest in the Bonny River NGL Recovery project.
Seplat has agreed to pay $1,283 million, plus contingent consideration of up to $300 million. The effective date is 1 January 2021 and completion is expected in H2 2022, pending ministerial approval. Seplat’s debt financing of $825 million is fully committed by a syndicate of Nigerian and African banks, and energy and commodity traders.
Implications: If it completes, the deal will be transformational for Seplat Energy. It is already the leading indigenous company in Nigeria, but this will triple its working interest production to over 140,000 boe/d. In total, Seplat will operate 15percent of Nigerian oil production.
Crucially, the deal diversifies its operations into shallow water, which is largely devoid of the thefts afflicting its onshore operations. Although this is Seplat’s first offshore acquisition, it will acquire all of MPNU’s Nigerian staff, thus allaying any concerns about its operational capabilities.
Valuation
Our equity-based valuation of MPNU – excluding the Qua Iboe terminal – is $870 million (discounted 10 per cent, January 2021, $50/bbl long-term).
However, at $70/bbl, we value the company at $1.678 billion. In the energy transition era, ExxonMobil will be pleased with this deal. But so will Seplat, as the deal offers huge upside for oil as well as gas.
The portfolio includes a massive 1.3 billion boe of contingent resources, 75 per cent of which is gas. Less than half of its 70 fields have been developed. Although the JV has been in production since the early 1970s, its maturity relates more to the extensive infrastructure than the reservoirs themselves. Yes, many fields are in decline, but they have also been under-invested for over 20 years.
Seplat has built a business turning around the Majors’ unwanted assets, a process it started in 2010. With the acquisition, its portfolio becomes very oil dominated. ExxonMobil refused to be drawn into the high-risk domestic gas market and had no exposure to NLNG. As a result, the acreage has the highest concentration of gas flaring in the country. Seplat, a listed company, will need to tackle this immediately.
Longer-term it will look to develop access into the domestic market in line with government policy, while there is also scope for LNG too. An FLNG project at Yoho on OML 104 was already under discussion before the deal.
That could now accelerate, while long-term supply to NLNG is another option.
There is also a possible upside from the Petroleum Industry Act (PIA) fiscal terms. Our analysis shows the JV portfolio would more than double in value if Seplat converts. However, this is far from certain, since it would have to relinquish up to 60percent of its acreage and much of the resource it has just acquired. A thorough review of its now extensive portfolio to identify the most advantaged barrels will be an urgent priority. The deadline for converting to the new fiscal terms is February 2023.
The deal is not without risks either. Seplat will have to find billions of dollars in the longer term to transform its portfolio and some rationalisation could follow. NNPC will of course be Seplat’s JV partner, and its ability to fund its 60 per cent equity longer term as it transitions to a limited liability company will be just as critical to the success of the deal.
ExxonMobil
ExxonMobil has been planning to sell its JV business for years, and its exit is overdue. The shallow water JV assets have long been non-core and are some of the highest-cost barrels in its global portfolio.
Although emissions were not a key driver for selling, the deal will help with its recently announced net-zero targets for scope 1 and 2 emissions.
The portfolio has an intensity of 48 kgCO2e/boe, more than double its global average.
It can now focus on renegotiating workable fiscal terms for its Nigerian deepwater assets like Erha and Usan. However, if that does not end successfully, a country exit could be on the cards, given its deepwater options in Guyana and Brazil.
No NNPC pre-emption
Because this is a corporate acquisition, NNPC has no right to pre-empt a deal under the Joint Operating Agreement (JOA), which governs the JV. This means that ministerial consent would be the only hurdle remaining, although nothing can be taken for granted.
Shell’s ongoing divestment of its subsidiary SPDC, similarly rules out pre-emption. If NNPC wants to acquire that portfolio, then it will have to out-bid the competition. If successful in raising up to $5 billion with Afrexim Bank it would have the firepower to do just that, and massively strengthen its position in the onshore delta.
By Adedapo Adesanya
The Socio-Economic Rights and Accountability Project (SERAP) has filed a lawsuit against the Nigerian National Petroleum Company (NNPC) Limited over its failure to account for and explain the whereabouts of the alleged missing N825 billion and $2.5 billion earmarked for the rehabilitation of the country’s refineries.
The group in its letter on the Sunday said the suit followed allegations documented in the 2021 audited report by the Auditor-General of the Federation, which was published on November 27, 2024, adding that Mr Aliko Dangote, president of the Dangote Group also last week said that NNPC refineries may never work again, despite the $18 billion spent on the refineries.
In the suit number FHC/L/MISC/722/25 filed last Friday at the Federal High Court in Lagos, SERAP is seeking: “an order of mandamus to direct and compel the NNPCL to account for and explain the whereabouts of the alleged missing N825 billion and USD$2.5 billion of public funds meant for ‘refinery rehabilitation’ and repair.”
SERAP is also asking the court to “direct and compel the NNPCL to recover and remit to the federation account the alleged missing N825 billion and USD$2.5 billion of public funds meant for refinery rehabilitation and repair.”
SERAP is also asking the court to “direct and compel the NNPCL to identify those responsible for the missing oil money, surcharge them for the full amount involved, and hand them over to appropriate anticorruption agencies for investigation and prosecution.”
In the suit, SERAP is arguing that: “The grim allegations by the Auditor-General [and Mr Aliko Dangote] suggest a grave violation of the public trust and the provisions of the Nigerian Constitution, national anticorruption laws, and the country’s international human rights and anticorruption obligations.”
SERAP is also arguing that, “granting the reliefs sought would strike a blow against the impunity of those responsible for the missing oil money meant to repair the country’s refineries and ensure that the money is returned for the sake of NNPCL’s victims—Nigerians.”
According to SERAP, “These grim allegations have also undermined economic development of the country, trapped the majority of Nigerians in poverty, and contributed to high levels of deficit spending by the government.”
SERAP is also arguing that, “The vast majority of Nigerians have seen little benefit from their country’s oil wealth, even as the NNPCL continues to fail to account for the missing billions of dollars that are desperately needed to repair or replace the country’s dysfunctional refineries.”
By Dipo Olowookere
A day after crossing the 124,000-point threshold, the All-Share Index (ASI) of the Nigerian Exchange (NGX) Limited hit another milestone on Friday after it closed higher by 1.37 per cent.
Business Post reports that the benchmark index of Customs Street finished at 126,149.59 points after adding 1,702.79 points to the 124,446.80 points it ended a day earlier.
Equally, the market capitalisation of the Nigerian bourse, which measures the total value of stocks on the platform, went up by N1.077 trillion to N79.803 trillion from N78.726 trillion.
At the trading session, 65 equities ended on the gainers’ chart and 25 equities finished on the losers’ table, indicating a positive market breadth index and strong investor sentiment.
Guinness Nigeria, Cadbury Nigeria, Consolidated Hallmark, and NEM Insurance all gained 10.00 per cent each to close at N96.80, N60.50, N3.63, and N22.00 apiece, and Red Star Express improved by 9.98 per cent to N13.44.
Conversely, Learn Africa depreciated by 8.66 per cent to N6.01, Tantalizers shed 6.25 per cent to settle at N3.00, Prestige Assurance slumped by 6.02 per cent to N1.25, Regency Alliance crashed by 5.62 per cent to 84 Kobo, and Oando lost 4.61 per cent to close at N51.70.
The NGX recorded a turnover of 1.4 billion shares traded for N30.6 billion in 33,399 deals on Friday compared with the 1.3 billion shares worth N27.7 billion traded in 27,875 deals on Thursday, implying an increase in the trading volume, value, and number of deals by 7.69 per cent, 10.47 per cent, and 19.82 per cent, respectively.
Access Holdings led the activity chart with 172.9 million units sold for N4.2 billion, Ellah Lakes traded 144.9 million units valued at N1.8 billion, Japaul exchanged 138.7 million units worth N498.8 million, UBA transacted 73.0 million units worth N3.2 billion, and AIICO Insurance traded 60.7 million units worth N135.7 million.
A look at the sectorial performance indicated that the banking index grew by 5.61 per cent, the insurance counter rose by 3.78 per cent, and the industrial goods sector expanded by 1.69 per cent.
However, the energy space depreciated by 0.49 per cent, the consumer goods industry went down by 0.23 per cent, and the commodity sector slipped by 0.02 per cent.
By Adedapo Adesanya
The NASD Over-the-Counter (OTC) Securities Exchange ended the last trading session of this week with a 0.26 per cent gain on Friday, July 11, helped by renewed buying interest by investors.
This increased their portfolios by N5.27 billion during the session, with the market capitalisation of the bourse closing at N2.01 trillion compared with the N2.005 trillion it ended at the preceding session.
In the same vein, the NASD Unlisted Security Index (NSI) expanded yesterday by 9.01 points to settle at 3,433.20 points, in contrast to the 3,424.19 points it finished a day earlier.
It was observed that the volume of securities traded by the market participants went down by 12.6 per cent to 2.7 million units from the 3.08 million units transacted on Thursday.
However, the value of securities transacted by investors appreciated by 55.6 per cent to N38.9 million from N25.1 million, and the number of deals executed jumped by 9.7 per cent to 34 deals from the 31 deals deals completed on Thursday.
Okitipupa Plc finished the day as the most traded stock by value (year-to-date) with 153.8 million units worth N4.9 billion, Air Liquide Plc occupied the second spot with 507.2 million units sold for N4.2 billion, and the third place was taken by FrieslandCampina Wamco Nigeria Plc with 42.2 million units valued at N1.8 billion.
Impresit Bakolori Plc also closed as the most active stock by volume (year-to-date) with 536.9 million units traded for N524.8 million, followed by Air Liquide Plc with 507.2 million units sold for N4.2 billion, and Geo-Fluids Plc with 270.6 million units worth N486.0 million.
The single price loser for the session was Geo-Fluids Plc as its price depleted by 20 Kobo to N4.59 per share from N4.79 per share.
But, Air Liquide Plc gained 98 Kobo to close at N10.92 per unit versus N9.94 per unit, Central Securities Clearing System (CSCS) Plc grew by 56 Kobo to N33.00 per share from N32.44 per share, FrieslandCampina Wamco Nigeria Plc increased by 47 Kobo to N64.36 per unit from N63.89 per unit, Lagos Building Investment Company (LBIC) Plc rose by 30 Kobo to N3.38 per share from N3.08 per share, and UBN Property Plc soared by 19 Kobo to N2.10 per unit from N1.91 per unit.
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