Economy
African Economists Want Stronger Monetary Policy Reforms
By Dipo Olowookere
African economists attending the 12th African Economic Conference in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, have called for more radical monetary policy reforms and an overhaul of the tax policy regime in most countries in order to guarantee the welfare needs of the local population.
The economic researchers from Ethiopia, Kenya and Sudan, who attended a session of the conference to discuss ‘Macroeconomic policies for the inclusive development,’ on December 5, 2017, noted broader reforms were required to secure stability in the foreign currency markets and to curb inflation.
“Consistent monetary policy yields the greatest welfare security to the citizens compared to discretionary monetary policy,” said Mr Peter Wamalwa of the Central Bank of Kenya, presenting a paper on the impact of monetary policy on the prices of assets in an open economy.
Discretionary monetary policy is often based on the knee-jerk reaction of the key policy-makers on matters which have an impact on taxation policy, spending and fiscal activities carried out by the respective Central Banks, often known as the monetary policy decision-making bodies.
Mr Wamalwa said while the monetary policy is often used by the respective Central Banks to correct market imperfections which require urgent intervention, the Central Bank should ensure as a priority that the social needs of the households and the firm are taken care off in order to guarantee economic stability.
“The monetary policy is not effective if the asset prices are not included. The response to the monetary policy is more significant,” said Mr Wamalwa, who insists Central Bank interventions to stabilize the domestic prices should allocate the economy’s resources efficiently and in a socially desired manner.
The African Economic Conference is dedicated to discussions on the kind of economic and political governance reforms that are critical in order to ensure structural transformation takes place in Africa.
Mr Wamalwa said the focus should remain on the effectiveness of the monetary policy in battling key challenges such as inflation and the foreign currency exchange rate policy.
In his paper, Mr Wamalwa did not entirely dismiss the possibility of the Central Banks relying on discretionary monetary policy, saying it has a role to play when policy weaknesses fail to address market distortions which affect prices in an economy in a more negative manner.
“This affords the monetary authority the flexibility to respond to unanticipated price and output changes as well as the dynamic behaviour of agents in an economy. This is more relevant to the financial markets where investors make decisions frequently to optimize their portfolio holding,” Mr Wamalwa said.
Speaking during the same session, Saswan Abdul-Jalil, a teaching assistant at the University of Khartoum, Sudan, called for an overhaul of the tax regime in Sudan and broad measures to unlock restrictions which make it much harder for ordinary businesses and individuals to access bank loans.
Terming difficulties in accessing the domestic financial markets due to the government’s increased domestic borrowing and stringent capital controls the “financial repression,” Abdul-Jalil said the capital controls imposed by the government enabled it to borrow at a lower rate domestically.
According to the paper titled “Financial Repression and Capital Controls in Sudan: An Evaluation of Fiscal Effects,” the financial repression causes a bigger impact on the pace of economic growth in Sudan.
“It leads to high cost of domestic borrowing because the commercial banks prefer to lend to the government and its effect is 0.8 percent on the Gross Domestic Product. The capital controls are part of the government’s efforts to raise revenue locally,” Abdul-Jalil argued.
By Adedapo Adesanya
The NASD Over-the-Counter (OTC) Securities Exchange recorded a 0.16 per cent decline on Tuesday, January 21, extending its loss this week to two.
This further depleted the market capitalisation of the alternative stock exchange by N1.65 billion at the close of transactions to N1.071 trillion from the N1.073 trillion it closed in the preceding session.
In the same vein, the NASD Unlisted Security Index (NSI) slid by 4.79 points to wrap the session at 3,100.33 points compared with 3,105.12 points recorded in the previous session.
The bourse ended with two price losers yesterday led by Geo Fluids Plc, which gave up 32 Kobo to trade at N4.38 per share versus Monday’s closing price of N4.70 per share and FrieslandCampina Wamco Nigeria Plc, which depreciated by 15 Kobo to close at N39.50 per unit compared with the previous day’s N39.65 per unit.
On the second trading day of the week, the number of deal carried out slightly went up by 8.3 per cent to 13 deals from the 12 deals executed at the previous trading session.
Also, the value of transactions increased by 97.2 per cent to N4.5 million from the N2.5 million recorded a day earlier, while the volume of securities traded in the session declined by 71.6 per cent to 183,780 units from the 767,610 units recorded on Monday.
FrieslandCampina Wamco Nigeria Plc remained the most traded equity by value (year-to-date) with 4.1 million units worth N162.9 million, followed by Geo-Fluids Plc with 9.1 million units valued at N44.0 million, and 11 Plc with 55,358 sold for N14.5 million.
Also, Industrial and General Insurance (IGI) Plc closed the day as the most active stock by volume (year-to-date) with 25.3 million units worth N5.9 million, trailed by Geo-Fluids Plc with 9.1 million units sold for N44.0 million, and FrieslandCampina Wamco Nigeria Plc with 4.1 million units valued at N162.9 million.
By Adedapo Adesanya
Pressure further mounted on the Nigerian Naira in the different segments of the foreign exchange market on Tuesday, making its value to shrink against the United States Dollar at the close of business.
In the Nigerian Autonomous Foreign Exchange Market (NAFEM), the domestic currency crashed against its American counterpart during the session by 0.18 per cent or N2.73 to settle at N1,552.78/$1, in contrast to Monday’s closing price of N1,550.05/1.
But against the Pound Sterling and the Euro, the local currency traded flat in the official market yesterday at N1,906.98/£1 and N1,613.48/€1, respectively.
As for the black market segment, the Naira weakened against the Dollar on Tuesday by N5 to sell for N1,670/$1 compared with the preceding day’s value of N1,665/$1.
Meanwhile, the cryptocurrency market heaved a sigh of relief during the session as President Donald Trump created a crypto task force dedicated to “developing a comprehensive and clear regulatory framework for crypto assets.”
The task force will be led by Commissioner Hester Peirce, a long-time advocate for the crypto industry, and will work closely with the crypto industry to develop regulations. This is after Mr Gary Gensler, an opponent of crypto, officially stepped down as chairman of the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) after Mr Trump’s term started.
The task force will also work with Congress, providing “technical assistance” as it crafts crypto regulations.
Solana (SOL) recorded a 9.2 per cent growth to sell at $257.09, Dogecoin (DOGE) rose by 7.6 per cent to $0.36789, Ripple (XRP) added 4.0 per cent to finish at $3.18, and Bitcoin (BTC) increased by 3.7 per cent to $105,515.03.
Further, Binance Coin (BNB) appreciated by 2.8 per cent to close at $699.01, Cardano jumped by 2.1 per cent to trade at $0.9972, Ethereum (ETH) soared by 2.0 per cent to settle at $3,308.21, and Litecoin (LTC) went up by 1.5 per cent to end at $116.72, while the US Dollar Tether (USDT) and the US Dollar Coin (USDC) closed flat at $1.00 each.
By Adedapo Adesanya
The price of the Brent crude oil grade went below the $80 mark on Tuesday after it shed 86 cents or 1.1 per cent to trade at $79.29 per barrel after the US President, Mr Donald Trump, signaled the possibility of his country boosting its oil production.
This move raised concerns of higher US output in a market widely expected to be oversupplied this year, with the US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures falling by $1.99 or 2.6 per cent during the session to $75.89 per barrel.
On his first day in office, the US President signed an executive order to unleash America’s energy by easing the barriers to oil and gas extraction and production and revoking a series of climate orders by former President Joe Biden.
As pledged in the campaign, the executive order follows the declaration of a national energy emergency.
The declaration includes measures to expedite energy infrastructure delivery, and emergency approvals by agencies “to facilitate the identification, leasing, siting, production, transportation, refining, and generation of domestic energy resources, including, but not limited to, on Federal lands.”
This will likely confirm expectations that the oil market will be oversupplied this year after weak economic activity and energy transition efforts weighed heavily on demand in top-consuming nations the US and China.
President Trump also said he was considering imposing 25 per cent tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico from February 1, rather than on his first day in office as promised.
The delay helped ease concerns of an immediate tightening of the market among US refiners, many of which are geared to process the type of crude oil supplied by these countries.
The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) reiterated on Tuesday its expectations for oil prices to decline both this year and next.
On its part, the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) projects robust demand growth in the world both this year and next.
In 2025, OPEC says demand is set to grow by 1.4 million barrels per day leaving its projection unchanged from the December report.
However, losses were also limited after the US president said his administration would “probably” stop buying oil from Venezuela. The U.S. is the second-biggest buyer of Venezuelan oil after China.
Also weighing on prices on Tuesday was the potential end to the shipping disruption in the Red Sea.
Yemen’s Houthis said on Monday they will limit their attacks on commercial vessels to Israel-linked ships provided the Gaza ceasefire is fully implemented.
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