Economy
Africa’s Economy to Rebound 5% in 2021—ECA
By Adedapo Adesanya
The economy of Africa is expected to rebound by 5 per cent next year after declining by 4.1 per cent this year, the UN Economic Commission for Africa (ECA) has said in its new report.
In its report tagged Innovative finance for private sector development in Africa, it was stated that the recovery would be supported by effective response to the COVID-19 pandemic and the measures taken globally to aid economic recovery.
According to the report, imported pharmaceutical products in the middle of a pandemic worth $44 billion would be required for the testing, personal protective equipment for frontline medical staff, equipment and treatment of the coronavirus (COVID-19).
In 2020, spending on health will increase as governments set aside funds to sustain their health systems and absorb costs related to the COVID-19 lockdowns.
In a best-case scenario, $44 billion would be required across Africa for testing, personal protective equipment and treatment of COVID-19 patients requiring hospitalisation and intensive care treatment, the report said.
The report further said that due to the resources being redirected to COVID-19, Africa’s existing health challenges will face spillover costs, as happened in the Ebola crisis. It calls on countries to look into investments in non-COVID-19 health issues which should be kept in view.
The impact of the pandemic will push between 5 million and 29 million people below the extreme poverty line of $1.90 per day, compared with a baseline 2020 African growth scenario, according to ECA projections.
Moreover, reduced demand due to COVID-19 has depressed the prices of agricultural commodities such as coffee, tea and cocoa, which is expected to affect vulnerable small-scale farmers in Africa.
The report advocates for investment to build key infrastructure and foster innovation. Despite Africa’s growth, many economies remain unsophisticated or undiversified, due to low levels of innovation, limited productive capabilities, low investment and poor quality of education.
Building capabilities will require investments in human and physical capital.
The report projected that an estimated financing gap of $2.5 trillion will be for all emerging and developing countries and $200 billion– $1.3 trillion for Africa.
This is because Africa’s population is expected to grow by 43 per cent over 2015–2030, the gap could reach $19.5 trillion by 2030.
Meanwhile, climate change is increasing seasonal variability, frequency and intensity of droughts and floods, and shifting habitats and agro-ecological zones due to climate change can cause food insecurity, lower trade balances, raise inflation pressure and fiscal imbalances.
For instance, cyclone Idai, which hit Mozambique in March–April 2019, weakened the economy, took 1,000 lives and caused $700 million–$1 billion in damages to property and other losses.
African economies remained the second fastest-growing region in the world with growth estimated at 3.4 per cent in 2019. The COVID-19 pandemic will impact growth to decelerate to between 1.8 per cent and -4.1 per cent in 2020.
In order to promote the recovery from the COVID-19 impact, the report calls on African countries to regulate their bank sector to limit the possible harm from banking crises or from more general system-wide misallocation of resources.
For the sake of private sector development, the regulation of banks and other sources of capital for funding private industry, such as equity and debt capital markets and digital platforms, needs to be strengthened.
The report noted that the regulations that concern the banking sector alone may be insufficient to safeguard the financial system against some of the risks fintech services pose, such as data privacy, money laundering, mismatched risk and return, and systemic risk.
Africa needs to rethink its financial services regulation so that innovation is fully functional, the environment enables innovation, transparency is enhanced, and financing for private sector development is delivered, the report stated.
These new risks call for financial regulation to be reviewed to provide a flexible environment for fintech to develop that is strict enough to limit the risks. Some African countries have limited fiscal space and international reserves and thus lack the necessary resources to implement COVID-19 responses.
According to IMF data, African countries will record fiscal deficits averaging 5.8 per cent in 2020 and 4.4 per cent in 2021, compared with 3 per cent in 2019.
However, African policymakers’ and regulators’ experience with the 2008–2009 financial crisis and the use of various measures to cushion its impact give them an advantage in rapidly responding to the COVID-19 crisis.
By Adedapo Adesanya
The federal government has reaffirmed its commitment to climate-responsive and sustainable practices as core pillars for developing Nigeria’s marine and blue economy.
This is contained in a press statement on Tuesday by Mrs Anastasia Ogbonna, Director, Information and Public Relations, Federal Ministry of Marine and Blue Economy.
According to the statement, the Permanent Secretary, Federal Ministry of Marine and Blue Economy (FMMBE), Mrs Fatima Mahmood, made this known while receiving a delegation from Invest International, a Dutch state-owned development finance institution under the Netherlands Ministry of Finance, led by Ms Fenna Zoe Howkamp.
Mrs Mahmood disclosed that the Ministry was actively mainstreaming climate considerations into its policies and programmes, with a sharp focus on reducing carbon footprints, conserving marine ecosystems, and promoting environmentally responsible resource utilisation.
She noted that global attention is increasingly shifting to the sustainable exploration of marine resources, including emerging areas such as marine mining.
According to her, Nigeria is aligning with international best practices to ensure such activities proceed without adverse environmental impact, while safeguarding critical ecosystems such as coral reefs.
She further identified the fisheries subsector as a priority, stressing its critical role in boosting food and nutrition security and creating jobs. While acknowledging Nigeria’s vast marine and freshwater resources, she pointed to significant opportunities for investment and growth within the subsector.
The Permanent Secretary reiterated the Ministry’s openness to strategic partnerships, particularly in port services and marine infrastructure, to unlock the long-term investment required for sustainable development.
She assured the delegation of Nigeria’s readiness to collaborate with international partners to drive innovation, investment, and sustainability in the blue economy.
In her remarks, the Head of Public Finance for Invest International (Southern Africa Region, including Nigeria), Ms Fenna Howkamp, reaffirmed the Netherlands’ commitment to deepening collaboration with the Ministry.
She highlighted the organisation’s expertise in marine and water management and presented specific project proposals, including a coastal protection initiative with an accompanying feasibility study, and nature-based solutions for drainage and water supply systems.
Ms Howkamp underscored the shared interest in developing resilient public infrastructure within the blue economy and expressed readiness to align proposed initiatives with the Ministry’s priority areas.
She also outlined Invest International’s financing options, which include up to 35% funding support for public infrastructure projects valued between €100 million and €150 million.
According to her, such financing could be structured through co-financing arrangements with institutions like the World Bank and the European Investment Bank, or through direct lending to the Ministry.
She called for sustained engagement to formalise feasibility studies and identify partners to advance coastal protection and other blue economy initiatives that promote sustainable, nature-based solutions for Nigeria’s coastal communities.
By Adedapo Adesanya
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has downgraded Nigeria’s 2026 growth forecast to 4.1 per cent due to the ripple effect of the Middle East war.
The revision was announced at the IMF and World Bank Spring Meetings in Washington, D.C., where officials warned that war-related energy and supply shocks are undercutting recovery across the region.
IMF Chief Economist, Mr Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, said the downgrade reflects broader pressures facing energy-importing countries.
“On Sub-Saharan Africa, we are seeing some downgrade of growth, and we are seeing some uptick in inflation in a number of countries in the region,” Mr Gourinchas noted.
“The impact is very much along the lines of what we see more broadly — for a lot of the countries, especially the ones that are energy importers,” he added.
He added that the global lender is “following with a number of countries what their needs may be in the current environment” and coordinating with the International Energy Agency and the World Bank on energy market disruptions.
Speaking further, the Chief of the IMF Research Department’s World Economic Studies Division, Ms Denz Igan, said the 0.3 percentage point cut reflects competing pressures.
“War-related higher fuel and fertiliser prices and higher shipping costs are going to weigh on non-oil activity in Nigeria,” Ms Igan said. “There’s some offset coming from higher oil prices, but the net balance is weaker growth in 2026, with some recovery built in for 2027.”
The IMF also projects that median inflation in Sub-Saharan Africa will rise from 3.4 per cent in 2025 to 5 per cent in 2026, driven by high oil and fertiliser prices, potential fuel shortages, and rising costs.
For Nigeria, she said, a tight monetary policy will be “crucial to achieve the inflation target of the central bank.”
The IMF noted that bilateral aid to Sub-Saharan Africa has fallen by 16 per cent to 20 per cent in 2025, removing a key buffer just as commodity and shipping costs spike.
It said assuming that the ongoing conflict remains limited in duration and scope, global growth is projected to slow to 3.1 per cent in 2026 and 3.2 per cent in 2027.
Global headline inflation is projected to rise modestly in 2026 before resuming its decline in 2027. Slowdown in growth and an increase in inflation are expected to be particularly pronounced in emerging market and developing economies.
The Bretton Woods institution said global inflation is expected to tick up in 2026 and resume its decline in 2027. Pressures are concentrated in emerging markets and developing economies, especially commodity importers with preexisting vulnerabilities. Risks are decisively on the downside.
By Adedapo Adesanya
Former Kaduna Governor Nasir Ahmad El-Rufai has been granted bail in the ongoing corruption case filed by the Independent Corrupt Practices and Other Related Offences Commission (ICPC).
However, Mr El-Rufai will remain in ICPC custody until he fulfils all the bail conditions set by the court.
The development was confirmed by his son, Mr Bello El-Rufai, shortly after the ruling.
This comes amid separate proceedings at the Kaduna State High Court, where the ICPC recently amended its charges against the former governor. Mr El-Rufai has pleaded not guilty to the allegations.
The chieftain of the opposition African Democratic Congress (ADC) was arraigned by the ICPC over charges related to alleged corruption and abuse of office during his tenure in the North-Western state from 2015 to 2023. Allegations ranging from abuse of office and fraud to intent to commit fraud and conferring undue advantage were levied against the politician.
The commission disclosed that both charges were instituted on March 18, 2026, as part of its ongoing efforts to enforce accountability and combat corruption.
The scrutiny of Mr El-Rufai by the ICPC follows the report of the Kaduna State House of Assembly’s ad hoc committee constituted in 2024 to investigate finances, loans and contracts awarded between 2015 and 2023 under his eight-year administration of the state.
Presenting the committee’s report during plenary last year, the committee chairman, Mr Henry Zacharia, alleged that most of the loans obtained by the El-Rufai administration within the eight years were not utilised for the purposes for which they were secured.
While receiving the report, the Speaker of the House, Mr Yusuf Dahiru Leman, alleged that about N423 billion was siphoned under the El-Rufai administration, leaving Kaduna State with heavy financial liabilities and a rising debt profile.
The committee recommended the investigation and prosecution of the former governor and several members of his cabinet over alleged abuse of office, award of contracts without due process, diversion of public funds, money laundering and reckless borrowing.
The Assembly subsequently endorsed a petition to the EFCC and the ICPC, urging them to take up the matter.
The embattled former FCT Minister is equally embroiled in a case with the federal government over alleged unlawful interception of the phone communications of the National Security Adviser, Mr Nuhu Ribadu.
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