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Analysis of Dangote Sugar 2016 Performance

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Dangote Sugar

**Posts Positive Performance Despite Input Costs Pressures

By Modupe Gbadeyanka

Dangote Sugar Refinery Plc delivered a remarkable financial performance in spite of elevated input cost within the financial year, as top line recorded a solid growth of 68 percent at N169.7 billion (FY 2015: N101.1 billion) and bottom line grew by 29 percent to N14.4 billion (FY 2015: N11.1 billion).

After a review of the company’s performance and based on our expectations, we project a fair value of N8.23 for Dangote Sugar and we assign a BUY rating on the stock.

The current market price of N6.00 implies a 27 percent discount to our fair value estimate of N8.23. DSR currently trades at a forward P/E and EV/EBITDA multiple of 4.82x and 4.97x, respectively.

FY’16 Performance Highlights:

  • Revenue grew markedly by 68% to N169.7bn (FY 2015: N101.1bn) on the back of major price increases within the year, while volume growth remained muted.

The average selling price in the year increased by 69% to N214.41/kg (N126.82/kg: FY’15), while sales volume was flat at 778,518mt (FY 2015: 778,000mt).

  • The major price hikes within the year were necessitated by the sharp rise in input costs as cost of sales increased by 82% to N146.7bn (FY 2015: N80.6bn), driven by a combination of increase in the international price of raw sugar, depreciation of the domestic currency, and higher energy costs.
  • The international price of raw sugar rose by 19% to an average of USD410.6 in 2016 (USD345.3 in FY 2015) while the domestic currency depreciated by 53% to further impact the cost of imported raw sugar. Also, gas supply interruptions led to the usage of more expensive low pour fuel oil (LPFO) and this aggravated energy costs.
  • DSR was, however, unable to fully pass the higher input costs to consumers through the several increases in selling price within the year as gross profit margin declined to 14% (FY 2015: 20%) and gross profit increased marginally by 12% to N23.0bn (FY 2015: N20.5bn).
  • Profit before tax grew by 21% to N19.6bn (FY 2015: N16.2bn) as fair value gains on biological assets of N2.5bn (FY 2015: N1.2bn) recorded in the year also supported bottom line. Profit after tax rose by 29% to N14.4bn (FY 2015: N11.1bn).

Our view

We expect revenue growth in FY 2017 to be driven primarily by volume. We believe the second phase of the crop season which kicked off in November ’16 from DSL’s backward integration drive will support more increases in production volume in H1 ’17. We expect volume sales to be driven by increase in market share as foreign exchange scarcity and higher imported sugar prices continue to subdue competition.

Ultimately, we believe lower international sugar prices, relative “stability” in the FX market and improved gas supply should ease input costs pressures and support profitability margins in FY 2017.

Valuation and rating

In estimating the fair value of DSR Plc, we adopted a combination of DCF and relative valuation methodologies. Our initial year cost of equity estimate of 19% was computed using a 10-yr risk-free rate of 15.80%, beta of 0.53 (relative to the NSE ASI) and an equity risk premium of 5.69%. We arrived at a fair value estimate of N8.23 per share.

  • Our fair value estimate implies a justified forward P/E multiple of 6.61x and EV/EBITDA multiple of 6.00x.
  • The current market price of N6.00 is at a 27% discount to our fair value estimate; hence, we rate the company’s stock a BUY.

Downside Risks to Valuation

The downside risks to our fair value estimate include:

  • Gas supply disruptions and increase in energy prices;
  • Further spike in international price of raw sugar;

• Devaluation of the domestic currency and the impact on the international price of raw sugar.

http://www.wstc.com.ng/uploads/reports/Earnings%20Update%20Dangote%20Sugar%20Refinery%20Plc.pdf

Modupe Gbadeyanka is a fast-rising journalist with Business Post Nigeria. Her passion for journalism is amazing. She is willing to learn more with a view to becoming one of the best pen-pushers in Nigeria. Her role models are the duo of CNN's Richard Quest and Christiane Amanpour.

Economy

LIRS Shifts Deadline for Annual Returns Filing to February 7

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Annual Tax Returns

By Aduragbemi Omiyale

The deadline for filing of employers’ annual tax returns in Lagos State has been extended by one week from February 1 to 7, 2026.

This information was revealed in a statement signed by the Head of Corporate Communications of the Lagos State Internal Revenue Service (LIRS), Mrs Monsurat Amasa-Oyelude.

In the statement issued over the weekend, the chairman of the tax collecting organisation, Mr Ayodele Subair, explained that the statutory deadline for filing of employers’ annual tax returns is January 31, every year, noting that the extension is intended to provide employers with additional time to complete and submit accurate tax returns.

According to him, employers must give priority to the timely filing of their annual returns, noting that compliance should be embedded as a routine business practice.

He also reiterated that electronic filing through the LIRS eTax platform remains the only approved method for submitting annual returns, as manual filings have been completely phased out. Employers are therefore required to file their returns exclusively through the LIRS eTax portal: https://etax.lirs.net.

Describing the platform as secure, user-friendly, and accessible 24/7, Mr Subair advised employers to ensure that the Tax ID (Tax Identification Number) of all employees is correctly captured in their submissions.

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Economy

Airtel on Track to List Mobile Money Unit in First Half of 2026—Taldar

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Airtel Money

By Adedapo Adesanya 

The chief executive of Airtel Africa Plc, Mr Sunil Kumar Taldar, has disclosed that the company is still on track to list its mobile money business, Airtel Money, before the end of June 2026.

Recall that Business Post reported in March 2024 that the mobile network operator was considering selling the shares of Airtel Money to the public through the IPO vehicle in a transaction expected to raise about $4 billion.

The firm had been in talks with possible advisors for a planned listing of the shares from the initial public offer on a stock exchange with some options including London, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), or Europe.

However, so far no final decisions have been made regarding the timing, location, or scale of the IPO.

In September 2025, the telco reportedly picked Citigroup Incorporated as advisors for the planned IPO which will see Airtel Money become a standalone entity before it can attain the prestige of trading on a stock exchange.

Mr Taldar, noted that metrics continued to show improvements ahead of the listing with its customer base hitting 52 million, compared to around 44.6 million users it had as of June 2025.

He added that the subsidiary processed over $210 billion in a year, according to the company’s nine-month financial results released on Friday.

“Our push to enhance financial inclusion across the continent continues to gain momentum with our Mobile Money customer base expanding to 52 million, surpassing the 50 million milestone. Annualised total processed value of over $210 billion in Q3’26 underscores the depth of our merchants, agents, and partner ecosystem and remains a key player in driving improved access to financial services across Africa.

“We remain on track for the listing of Airtel Money in the first half of 2026,” Mr Taldar said.

Estimating Airtel Money at $4 billion is higher than its valuation of $2.65 billion in 2021. In 2021, Airtel Money received significant investments, including $200 million from TPG Incorporated at a valuation of $2.65 billion and $100 million from Mastercard. Later that same year, an affiliate of Qatar’s sovereign wealth fund also acquired an undisclosed stake in the unit.

The mobile money sector in Africa is expanding rapidly, driven by a young population increasingly adopting technology for financial services, making the continent a key market for fintech companies.

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Economy

Crypto Investor Bamu Gift Wandji of Polyfarm in EFCC Custody

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Bamu Gift Wandji of Polyfarm

By Dipo Olowookere

A cryptocurrency investor and owner of Polyfarm, Mr Bamu Gift Wandji, is currently cooling off in the custody of the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC).

He was handed over to the anti-money laundering agency by the Nigerian Security and Civil Defence Corps (NSCDC) on Friday, January 30, 2026, after his arrest on Monday, January 12, 2026.

A statement from the EFCC yesterday disclosed that the suspect was apprehended by the NSCDC in Gwagwalada, Abuja for running an investment scheme without the authorisation of the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), which is the apex capital market regulator in Nigeria.

It was claimed that Mr Wandji created a fraudulent crypto investment platform called Polyfarm, where he allegedly lured innocent Nigerians to invest in Polygon, a crypto token that attracts high returns.

Investigation further revealed that he also deceived the public that his project, Polyfarm, has its native token called “polyfarm coin” which he sold to the public.

In his bid to promote the scheme, the suspect posted about this on social media platforms, including WhatsApp, X (formally Twitter) and Telegram. He also conducted seminars in some major cities in Nigeria including Kaduna, Lagos, Port Harcourt and Abuja where he described the scheme as a life-changing programme.

Further investigation revealed that in October, 2025, subscribers who could not access their funds were informed by the suspect that the site was attacked by Lazarus group, a cyber attacking group linked to North Korea.

Further investigations showed that Polyfarm is not registered and not licensed with SEC to carry out crypto transactions in Nigeria.  Also, no investment happened with subscribers’ funds and that the suspect used funds paid by subscribers to pay others in the name of profit.

Investigation also revealed that native coin, polyfarm coin was never listed on coin market cap and that the suspect sold worthless coins to the general public.

Contrary to the claim of the suspect that his platform was attacked, EFCC’s investigations revealed that the platform was never attacked or hacked by anyone and that the suspect withdrew investors’ funds and utilized the same for his personal gains.

The EFCC, in the statement, disclosed that Mr Wandji would be charged to court upon conclusion of investigations.

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