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Analysis of Dangote Sugar 2016 Performance

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Dangote Sugar

**Posts Positive Performance Despite Input Costs Pressures

By Modupe Gbadeyanka

Dangote Sugar Refinery Plc delivered a remarkable financial performance in spite of elevated input cost within the financial year, as top line recorded a solid growth of 68 percent at N169.7 billion (FY 2015: N101.1 billion) and bottom line grew by 29 percent to N14.4 billion (FY 2015: N11.1 billion).

After a review of the company’s performance and based on our expectations, we project a fair value of N8.23 for Dangote Sugar and we assign a BUY rating on the stock.

The current market price of N6.00 implies a 27 percent discount to our fair value estimate of N8.23. DSR currently trades at a forward P/E and EV/EBITDA multiple of 4.82x and 4.97x, respectively.

FY’16 Performance Highlights:

  • Revenue grew markedly by 68% to N169.7bn (FY 2015: N101.1bn) on the back of major price increases within the year, while volume growth remained muted.

The average selling price in the year increased by 69% to N214.41/kg (N126.82/kg: FY’15), while sales volume was flat at 778,518mt (FY 2015: 778,000mt).

  • The major price hikes within the year were necessitated by the sharp rise in input costs as cost of sales increased by 82% to N146.7bn (FY 2015: N80.6bn), driven by a combination of increase in the international price of raw sugar, depreciation of the domestic currency, and higher energy costs.
  • The international price of raw sugar rose by 19% to an average of USD410.6 in 2016 (USD345.3 in FY 2015) while the domestic currency depreciated by 53% to further impact the cost of imported raw sugar. Also, gas supply interruptions led to the usage of more expensive low pour fuel oil (LPFO) and this aggravated energy costs.
  • DSR was, however, unable to fully pass the higher input costs to consumers through the several increases in selling price within the year as gross profit margin declined to 14% (FY 2015: 20%) and gross profit increased marginally by 12% to N23.0bn (FY 2015: N20.5bn).
  • Profit before tax grew by 21% to N19.6bn (FY 2015: N16.2bn) as fair value gains on biological assets of N2.5bn (FY 2015: N1.2bn) recorded in the year also supported bottom line. Profit after tax rose by 29% to N14.4bn (FY 2015: N11.1bn).

Our view

We expect revenue growth in FY 2017 to be driven primarily by volume. We believe the second phase of the crop season which kicked off in November ’16 from DSL’s backward integration drive will support more increases in production volume in H1 ’17. We expect volume sales to be driven by increase in market share as foreign exchange scarcity and higher imported sugar prices continue to subdue competition.

Ultimately, we believe lower international sugar prices, relative “stability” in the FX market and improved gas supply should ease input costs pressures and support profitability margins in FY 2017.

Valuation and rating

In estimating the fair value of DSR Plc, we adopted a combination of DCF and relative valuation methodologies. Our initial year cost of equity estimate of 19% was computed using a 10-yr risk-free rate of 15.80%, beta of 0.53 (relative to the NSE ASI) and an equity risk premium of 5.69%. We arrived at a fair value estimate of N8.23 per share.

  • Our fair value estimate implies a justified forward P/E multiple of 6.61x and EV/EBITDA multiple of 6.00x.
  • The current market price of N6.00 is at a 27% discount to our fair value estimate; hence, we rate the company’s stock a BUY.

Downside Risks to Valuation

The downside risks to our fair value estimate include:

  • Gas supply disruptions and increase in energy prices;
  • Further spike in international price of raw sugar;

• Devaluation of the domestic currency and the impact on the international price of raw sugar.

http://www.wstc.com.ng/uploads/reports/Earnings%20Update%20Dangote%20Sugar%20Refinery%20Plc.pdf

Modupe Gbadeyanka is a fast-rising journalist with Business Post Nigeria. Her passion for journalism is amazing. She is willing to learn more with a view to becoming one of the best pen-pushers in Nigeria. Her role models are the duo of CNN's Richard Quest and Christiane Amanpour.

Economy

Trump’s Reciprocal Tariffs Deadline Weakens Oil Market

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crude oil market

By Adedapo Adesanya

The oil market shrank on Tuesday as traders braced for reciprocal tariffs that the US President, Mr Donald Trump, is due to announce.

Brent futures went down by 28 cents or 0.37 per cent to close at $74.49 a barrel and the US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures fell by 28 cents or 0.39 per cent to $71.20 per barrel.

The American President is set to unveil new tariffs targeting specific countries that have trade surpluses with the US on Wednesday, April 2, pledging to roll back unfair trade practices.

This could be on European Union (EU) countries or even Japan, adding volatility to this week’s trading.

According to the US government, the new duties are due to take effect immediately after President Trump announces them, while a separate 25 per cent global tariff on auto imports will take effect on April 3.

In just over 10 weeks in office, the US President has implemented new 20 per cent tariffs on all Chinese imports over fentanyl concerns and reinstated the 25 per cent tariffs on steel and aluminum, expanding them to nearly $150 billion in downstream products.

Additionally, a month-long exemption for most Canadian and Mexican goods from his 25 per cent fentanyl-related tariffs is set to expire on Wednesday.

However, President Trump’s threats to impose secondary tariffs on Russian oil and to attack Iran fueled supply worries, limited losses.

He said on Sunday he would impose secondary tariffs of 25 per cent to 50 per cent on Russian oil buyers if Russia tried to block efforts to end the war in Ukraine.

Tariffs on buyers of oil from Russia, the world’s second largest oil exporter, would disrupt global supply and hurt Russia’s biggest customers, China and India.

Mr Trump threatened Iran with similar tariffs and also with bombings if Tehran did not reach an agreement with the White House over its nuclear programme.

Also, the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+) began unwinding the production cuts by adding about 138,000 barrels per day from Tuesday.

Prices also found some support after Russia ordered Kazakhstan’s main oil export terminal to close two of its three moorings amid a standoff between Kazakhstan and OPEC+ over excess production.

As a result, Kazakhstan will have to start cutting oil output.

The American Petroleum Institute (API) estimated that crude oil inventories in the United States rose by 6.037 million barrels for the week ending March 28, after a 4.6 million barrel drop in the prior week.

So far this year, crude oil inventories have climbed nearly 23 million barrels.

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Economy

Nigerians Buy Petrol N930 Per Litre as Naira-for-Crude Deal Fails

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petrol consumption nigeria

By Adedapo Adesanya

Nigerians, after facing respite with reduced price of premium motor spirit (PMS), known as petrol, in recent weeks, are now faced with a new challenge as the product retails for as high as N930 per litre in Lagos and higher in other parts of the country.

While Business Post gathered in Lagos that it retails for N930 per litre, it is selling as high between N950 and N970 per litre, depending on the filling stations in Abuja and northern parts of the country.

Our correspondents gathered from three filling stations, including Mobil, AP, and Northwest, that prices were around N930 per litre.

The new price regime followed an announcement by Dangote Refinery temporarily halting the sale of petroleum products in Naira, which is a result of a price war brought on by the deregulation of the downstream sector.

The $20 billion refinery based in Lagos said the sales of its products in Naira have exceeded the value of Naira-denominated crude it has received from the Nigerian National Petroleum Company (NNPC) Limited.

“This decision is necessary to avoid a mismatch between our sales proceeds and our crude oil purchase obligations, which are currently denominated in US Dollars,” the company said in a statement earlier in March 2025

“As a result, we must temporarily adjust our sales currency to align with our crude procurement currency,” the company explained.

Over the last few months, the price war between the NNPC and Dangote reduce prices to as low as N830 per litre— easing pressure on Nigerians.

However, with oil prices rising in the international market, the landing cost of imported petrol has increased to a high of N885 per litre last week.

On February 26, 2025, the $20 billion refinery owned by Africa’s richest man and industrialist Aliko Dangote slashed the ex-depot price of petrol from N890 to N825 per litre.

Under the new arrangement, customers purchased the petrol at N860 per litre at selected outlets in Lagos, N870 in the South-West, N880 in the North, and N890 in the South-South and South-East.

Almost immediately, the NNPC reduced its retail price from N945 to N860 in Lagos, with a similar price reduction reflected at NNPCL outlets in other states of the Federation.

Now, with the cost of landing cost increasing imported petrol costs, Dangote Refinery will be seeking to play its card to cover its margins.

Recall that last month, the NNPC suspended the Naira-for-crude deal with private refiners, including Dangote Refinery, fuelling its suspension of the sale of petrol in local currency.

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Economy

Exchange Ethereum (ETH) to Tether TRC20 (USDT)

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Ethereum in Nigeria

Crypto conversion may be required for diverse causes. Any user wants to do it fast and profitably. In this circumstance, you can use different ways. Using individuals is operated caustically since it does not ensure security at all. There are many scammers on the Internet, so you can lose your funds in a few minutes.

You can use crypto exchanges or exchangers to profitably swap Ether cryptocurrency to Tether USDT stablecoin in TRC-20 network. Both choices are quite trustworthy, so the user can be certain of the security of transactions. Nevertheless, there are distinctions between them.

How is a crypto exchange distinct from an exchanger?

If you swap Ethereum to Tether TRC20, you must select a more profitable key. Not all users manage to fill out a charge correctly on exchanges, so you need to wait until you come across a promising deal. This may take several days, but you can wait if conditions allow. In this case, although longer, the user can swap crypto at the rate he prefers. Transactions should not be anonymous, and signup and confirmation should be required.

You won’t have to search for swap services for a long time. Just go to www.bestchange.com/ethereum-to-tether-trc20.html. Here, you can select an exchanger to exchange Ethereum (ETH) to Tether TRC20 (USDT). Such services have the next benefits:

1. To purchase Ethereum (Ether) cryptocurrency, you do not need to study the intricacies of trading. The interface is easy: the user chooses the exchange direction and enters the needed amount.

2. When selling and purchasing, the user uses his own crypto wallet; it does not require to transfer funds to the service. In this case, he can be sure that they will not fade.

3. The exchangers present several exchange directions at once, and the user can pick just the one requires.

A tremendous benefit is the lack of registration and identity validation with documents. This permits you to save time and keep the anonymity of transactions. In addition, there are no extra payments in the exchangers. The principal commission is already included in the exchange rate. There is also an option to acquire extra bonuses for regular cooperation.

How to convert cryptos?

The process is very fast. Just go to Bestchange, where the rating of confirmed exchangers is shown. Next, choose the proper service and click on its name to go to the official website. Be sure to read the terms of service. After that, the user fills out an application with the swap direction, amount, and crypto wallet number. The application is sent for validation; the user contacts the service representative to obtain payment details. It must be satisfied within a certain period; otherwise, the application will be canceled. Next, you need to wait until the crypto arrives in the wallet. For all questions, you can reach technical support around the clock.

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