Economy
Analysis of Dangote Sugar 2016 Performance
**Posts Positive Performance Despite Input Costs Pressures
By Modupe Gbadeyanka
Dangote Sugar Refinery Plc delivered a remarkable financial performance in spite of elevated input cost within the financial year, as top line recorded a solid growth of 68 percent at N169.7 billion (FY 2015: N101.1 billion) and bottom line grew by 29 percent to N14.4 billion (FY 2015: N11.1 billion).
After a review of the company’s performance and based on our expectations, we project a fair value of N8.23 for Dangote Sugar and we assign a BUY rating on the stock.
The current market price of N6.00 implies a 27 percent discount to our fair value estimate of N8.23. DSR currently trades at a forward P/E and EV/EBITDA multiple of 4.82x and 4.97x, respectively.
FY’16 Performance Highlights:
- Revenue grew markedly by 68% to N169.7bn (FY 2015: N101.1bn) on the back of major price increases within the year, while volume growth remained muted.
The average selling price in the year increased by 69% to N214.41/kg (N126.82/kg: FY’15), while sales volume was flat at 778,518mt (FY 2015: 778,000mt).
- The major price hikes within the year were necessitated by the sharp rise in input costs as cost of sales increased by 82% to N146.7bn (FY 2015: N80.6bn), driven by a combination of increase in the international price of raw sugar, depreciation of the domestic currency, and higher energy costs.
- The international price of raw sugar rose by 19% to an average of USD410.6 in 2016 (USD345.3 in FY 2015) while the domestic currency depreciated by 53% to further impact the cost of imported raw sugar. Also, gas supply interruptions led to the usage of more expensive low pour fuel oil (LPFO) and this aggravated energy costs.
- DSR was, however, unable to fully pass the higher input costs to consumers through the several increases in selling price within the year as gross profit margin declined to 14% (FY 2015: 20%) and gross profit increased marginally by 12% to N23.0bn (FY 2015: N20.5bn).
- Profit before tax grew by 21% to N19.6bn (FY 2015: N16.2bn) as fair value gains on biological assets of N2.5bn (FY 2015: N1.2bn) recorded in the year also supported bottom line. Profit after tax rose by 29% to N14.4bn (FY 2015: N11.1bn).
Our view
We expect revenue growth in FY 2017 to be driven primarily by volume. We believe the second phase of the crop season which kicked off in November ’16 from DSL’s backward integration drive will support more increases in production volume in H1 ’17. We expect volume sales to be driven by increase in market share as foreign exchange scarcity and higher imported sugar prices continue to subdue competition.
Ultimately, we believe lower international sugar prices, relative “stability” in the FX market and improved gas supply should ease input costs pressures and support profitability margins in FY 2017.
Valuation and rating
In estimating the fair value of DSR Plc, we adopted a combination of DCF and relative valuation methodologies. Our initial year cost of equity estimate of 19% was computed using a 10-yr risk-free rate of 15.80%, beta of 0.53 (relative to the NSE ASI) and an equity risk premium of 5.69%. We arrived at a fair value estimate of N8.23 per share.
- Our fair value estimate implies a justified forward P/E multiple of 6.61x and EV/EBITDA multiple of 6.00x.
- The current market price of N6.00 is at a 27% discount to our fair value estimate; hence, we rate the company’s stock a BUY.
Downside Risks to Valuation
The downside risks to our fair value estimate include:
- Gas supply disruptions and increase in energy prices;
- Further spike in international price of raw sugar;
• Devaluation of the domestic currency and the impact on the international price of raw sugar.
http://www.wstc.com.ng/uploads/reports/Earnings%20Update%20Dangote%20Sugar%20Refinery%20Plc.pdf
Economy
Tinubu to Present 2025 Budget of N47.9trn to NASS December 17
By Aduragbemi Omiyale
On Tuesday, December 17, 2024, President Bola Tinubu will present the 2025 budget to a joint session of the National Assembly.
The size of the 2025 Appropriation Bill is about N47.9 trillion and would be presented to the parliament for approval.
Speaking at the plenary on Thursday, December 12, 2024, the President of the Senate, Mr Godswill Akpabio, said the presentation by Mr Tinubu would be at the chamber of the House of Representatives.
However, it is not certain if the lawmakers will pass the budget before December 31 to allow for a recent budget cycle of January to December.
Recall that on December 3, the senate approved the Medium Term Expenditure Framework and Fiscal Strategy Paper (MTEF/FSP) for 2025 to 2027.
This was after the President presented this the National Assembly on November 19 ahead of the consideration of the 2025 budget proposal.
In the MTEF/FSP, the government said it planned to borrow about N9.22 trillion from local and foreign sources to finance the budget deficit.
It pegged the crude oil benchmark at $75 per barrel and a daily oil production of 2.06 million barrels at an exchange rate of N1,400 to $1, and a targeted gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate of 6.4 percent.
At the plenary today, Mr Akpabio informed his colleagues that, “The President has made his intention known to the National Assembly to present the 2025 budget to the joint session of the National Assembly on December 17, 2024.”
Economy
Nigeria Adds 150,000 b/d Crude Production in November 2024
By Adedapo Adesanya
Nigeria added 150,000 barrels per day to its crude production in November 2024 as it continues to pursue an ambitious 2 million barrels per day target.
According to the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), Nigeria’s oil production rose to 1.48 million barrels per day in November, up from 1.33 million barrels per day the previous month.
In its Monthly Oil Market Report (MOMR), OPEC revealed that at 1.48 million barrels per day, it is the continent’s leading oil producer, surpassing Algeria’s 908,000 barrels per day and Congo’s 268,000 barrels per day.
Business Post reports that OPEC doesn’t account for condensates, which Nigeria’s accounts for in its broader 2 million barrels per day target.
Despite the surge in production levels, Nigeria is still under producing its 1.5 million barrels per day output quota under a deal involving OPEC and 10 other producers known as OPEC+.
OPEC said it relied on primary data gotten through direct communication, noting that secondary sources reported 1.417 million barrels per day as Nigeria’s crude production in November — up from 1.4 million barrels per day in October.
The data also shows that OPEC’s total oil production among its 12 members rose by 104,000 barrels per day in the month under review.
According to secondary sources, the total of the 12 OPEC countries’ crude oil production averaged 26.66 million barrels per day in November 2024.
“Crude oil output increased mainly in Libya, Iran, and Nigeria, while production in Iraq, Venezuela, and Kuwait decreased”, OPEC said.
“At the same time, total non-OPEC DoC crude oil production averaged 14.01 mb/d in November 2024, which is 219 tb/d higher, m-o-m. Crude oil output increased mainly in Kazakhstan and Malaysia,” the organisation added.
In a related development, OPEC trimmed its 2024 and 2025 oil demand growth forecasts for the fifth time this year.
Now, the cartel expects the world’s oil demand growth at 1.61 million barrels per day from the previously 1.82 million barrels per day.
For 2025, OPEC says the world oil demand growth forecast is now at 1.45 million barrels per day, a 900,000 barrels per day cut from the previously expected 1.54 million barrels per day.
On the changes, OPEC says that the downgrade for this year owes to more bearish data received in the third quarter of 2024 while the projections for next year relate to the potential impact that will arise from US tariffs.
Economy
Afriland Properties, Geo-Fluids Shrink OTC Securities Exchange by 0.06%
By Adedapo Adesanya
The duo of Afriland Properties Plc and Geo-Fluids Plc crashed the NASD Over-the-Counter (OTC) Securities Exchange by a marginal 0.06 per cent on Wednesday, December 11 due to profit-taking activities.
The OTC securities exchange experienced a downfall at midweek despite UBN Property Plc posting a price appreciation of 17 Kobo to close at N1.96 per share, in contrast to Tuesday’s closing price of N1.79.
Business Post reports that Afriland Properties Plc slid by N1.14 to finish at N15.80 per unit versus the preceding day’s N16.94 per unit, and Geo-Fluids Plc declined by 1 Kobo to trade at N3.92 per share compared with the N3.93 it ended a day earlier.
At the close of transactions, the market capitalisation of the bourse, which measures the total value of securities on the platform, shrank by N650 million to finish at N1.055 trillion compared with the previous day’s N1.056 trillion and the NASD Unlisted Security Index (NSI) went down by 1.86 points to wrap the session at 3,012.50 points compared with 3,014.36 points recorded in the previous session.
The alternative stock market was busy yesterday as the volume of securities traded by investors soared by 146.9 per cent to 5.9 million units from 2.4 million units, as the value of shares transacted by the market participants jumped by 360.9 per cent to N22.5 million from N4.9 million, and the number of deals increased by 50 per cent to 21 deals from 14 deals.
When the bourse closed for the day, Geo-Fluids Plc remained the most active stock by volume (year-to-date) with 1.7 billion units valued at N3.9 billion, followed by Okitipupa Plc with 752.2 million units worth N7.8 billion, and Afriland Properties Plc 297.5 million units sold for N5.3 million.
Also, Aradel Holdings Plc, which is now listed on the Nigerian Exchange (NGX) Limited after its exit from NASD, remained the most active stock by value (year-to-date) with 108.7 million units sold for N89.2 billion, trailed by Okitipupa Plc with 752.2 million units valued at N7.8 billion, and Afriland Properties Plc with 297.5 million units worth N5.3 billion.
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