Economy
Analysis of Dangote Sugar 2016 Performance

**Posts Positive Performance Despite Input Costs Pressures
By Modupe Gbadeyanka
Dangote Sugar Refinery Plc delivered a remarkable financial performance in spite of elevated input cost within the financial year, as top line recorded a solid growth of 68 percent at N169.7 billion (FY 2015: N101.1 billion) and bottom line grew by 29 percent to N14.4 billion (FY 2015: N11.1 billion).
After a review of the company’s performance and based on our expectations, we project a fair value of N8.23 for Dangote Sugar and we assign a BUY rating on the stock.
The current market price of N6.00 implies a 27 percent discount to our fair value estimate of N8.23. DSR currently trades at a forward P/E and EV/EBITDA multiple of 4.82x and 4.97x, respectively.
FY’16 Performance Highlights:
- Revenue grew markedly by 68% to N169.7bn (FY 2015: N101.1bn) on the back of major price increases within the year, while volume growth remained muted.
The average selling price in the year increased by 69% to N214.41/kg (N126.82/kg: FY’15), while sales volume was flat at 778,518mt (FY 2015: 778,000mt).
- The major price hikes within the year were necessitated by the sharp rise in input costs as cost of sales increased by 82% to N146.7bn (FY 2015: N80.6bn), driven by a combination of increase in the international price of raw sugar, depreciation of the domestic currency, and higher energy costs.
- The international price of raw sugar rose by 19% to an average of USD410.6 in 2016 (USD345.3 in FY 2015) while the domestic currency depreciated by 53% to further impact the cost of imported raw sugar. Also, gas supply interruptions led to the usage of more expensive low pour fuel oil (LPFO) and this aggravated energy costs.
- DSR was, however, unable to fully pass the higher input costs to consumers through the several increases in selling price within the year as gross profit margin declined to 14% (FY 2015: 20%) and gross profit increased marginally by 12% to N23.0bn (FY 2015: N20.5bn).
- Profit before tax grew by 21% to N19.6bn (FY 2015: N16.2bn) as fair value gains on biological assets of N2.5bn (FY 2015: N1.2bn) recorded in the year also supported bottom line. Profit after tax rose by 29% to N14.4bn (FY 2015: N11.1bn).
Our view
We expect revenue growth in FY 2017 to be driven primarily by volume. We believe the second phase of the crop season which kicked off in November ’16 from DSL’s backward integration drive will support more increases in production volume in H1 ’17. We expect volume sales to be driven by increase in market share as foreign exchange scarcity and higher imported sugar prices continue to subdue competition.
Ultimately, we believe lower international sugar prices, relative “stability” in the FX market and improved gas supply should ease input costs pressures and support profitability margins in FY 2017.
Valuation and rating
In estimating the fair value of DSR Plc, we adopted a combination of DCF and relative valuation methodologies. Our initial year cost of equity estimate of 19% was computed using a 10-yr risk-free rate of 15.80%, beta of 0.53 (relative to the NSE ASI) and an equity risk premium of 5.69%. We arrived at a fair value estimate of N8.23 per share.
- Our fair value estimate implies a justified forward P/E multiple of 6.61x and EV/EBITDA multiple of 6.00x.
- The current market price of N6.00 is at a 27% discount to our fair value estimate; hence, we rate the company’s stock a BUY.
Downside Risks to Valuation
The downside risks to our fair value estimate include:
- Gas supply disruptions and increase in energy prices;
- Further spike in international price of raw sugar;
• Devaluation of the domestic currency and the impact on the international price of raw sugar.
http://www.wstc.com.ng/uploads/reports/Earnings%20Update%20Dangote%20Sugar%20Refinery%20Plc.pdf
Economy
Naira Weakens to N1,370/$1 at Official FX Window
By Adedapo Adesanya
A 0.11 per cent or N1.53 loss was recorded by the Nigerian Naira against the US Dollar in the Nigerian Autonomous Foreign Exchange Market (NAFEX) on Tuesday, June 22, closing at N1,370.64/$1 compared with the previous day’s value of N1,369.11/$1.
However, the domestic currency appreciated against the Pound Sterling in the official FX window during the session by N4.69 to trade at N1,810.75/£1 versus the previous day’s N1,815.44/£1, and gained N5.37 on the Euro to sell at N1,561.02/€1 versus Monday’s exchange rate of N1,566.39/€1.
At the black market segment, the Naira traded flat against the Dollar yesterday at N1,395/$1, and at the GTBank forex desk, it also closed flat at N1,380/$1.
Daily FX update from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) indicated that forex liquidity improved, but dollar volume was surpassed by strong dollar outflows on Tuesday.
Interbank FX turnover among financial institutions and market makers experienced a significant surge, reaching $125.314 million across 106 deals at the official window, 92 per cent higher than the $65.206 million the previous day, highlighting robust market activity and growing investor confidence.
Also, Nigeria’s foreign reserves continue to grow, reaching $51.142 billion, up from $51.060 billion reported the previous day, according to the CBN’s latest update.
In the cryptocurrency market, digital currencies fell amid heavy selling in technology stocks, which kept pressure on risk assets worldwide. Also, the gauge of the Dollar climbed to a seven-month high as investors moved toward safer assets.
Leading the losers was Cardano (ADA), as it slid 2.1 per cent to $0.1511. Dogecoin (DOGE) lost 1.3 per cent to quote at $0.0789, Ethereum (ETH) shrank 0.9 per cent to $1,673.38, Ripple (XRP) declined by 0.7 per cent to $1.10, TRON (TRX) also fell by 0.7 per cent to $0.3285, Solana (SOL) dipped by 0.3 per cent to $69.83, Bitcoin (BTC) went down by 0.2 per cent to $62,756.99, and Binance Coin (BNB) tumbled by 0.01 per cent to $579.20, while the US Dollar Tether (USDT) and the US Dollar Coin (USDC) remained unchanged at $1.00 apiece.
Economy
Claims of PMS Export, Re-importation Not True—Dangote Refinery
By Aduragbemi Omiyale
Dangote Petroleum Refinery and Petrochemicals has refuted allegations that its premium motor spirit (PMS), otherwise known as petrol, exported to other countries, is being re-imported into Nigeria.
It was claimed that the private crude oil refiner sells PMS to other African nations, especially Togo, at a lower price to the extent that when re-imported into the country, it is still cheaper than what Dangote Refinery sells to Nigerian marketers.
Reacting via a statement on Tuesday night, the management described the allegations as “baseless and unsubstantiated” because they are not “supported by verifiable trade data, commercial logic, or the operational realities of Dangote Refinery.”
The company noted that its core mandate is to strengthen domestic supply and remains a leading provider of petroleum products in Nigeria.
“Any practice that enables imports to compete directly with its own production clearly contradicts this objective,” it stated.
Dangote Refinery said “all sales contracts and tender agreements expressly prohibit the resale or re-importation of Dangote Refinery products into Nigeria,” emphasising that “the economics of the purported trade route are fundamentally flawed.”
The organisation stated that estimated logistics costs for transporting products from the refinery to Lomé and back into Nigeria range between $82–90 per metric ton. Such additional costs would significantly erode margins and render the transaction commercially unviable.
“Dangote Refinery does not provide export discounts sufficient to offset these costs or create arbitrage opportunities between export and domestic markets. Simply put, no rational producer would incur additional shipping, storage, financing, and handling costs only for products to re-enter and compete in its primary market,” it pointed out.
The management also highlighted that the refinery maintains stringent product traceability protocols, including detailed records of lifting points, nominated vessels, counterparties, and declared destinations. These measures ensure full visibility and accountability across the supply chain.
The statement insisted that any “claim suggesting that the refinery facilitates or tolerates re-importation is inconsistent with its contractual safeguards and established compliance standards.”
The refinery said it has consistently advocated for reducing Nigeria’s dependence on imported petroleum products, underscoring that encouraging or enabling re-importation would undermine local refining efforts, strain foreign exchange reserves, and weaken national industrial growth, positions that are contrary to its core objectives.
Dangote Refinery reiterated that there is no strategic, economic, or operational basis for the claim that it exports products for re-importation into Nigeria, stressing that the allegation is entirely unfounded and does not withstand scrutiny when measured against market logic, contractual frameworks, and industry practices.
The statement concluded that “Dangote Refinery remains focused on its mission to enhance energy security, support local refining, and contribute meaningfully to Africa’s industrial development.”
Economy
Customs Street Rallies 1.06% on Improved Market Activity, Investor Sentiment
By Dipo Olowookere
The Nigerian Exchange (NGX) Limited rallied by 1.06 per cent on renewed investor confidence after surviving a run of losing streaks.
Yesterday, some performance indicators were better compared with the previous session, with the All-Share Index (ASI) chalking up 2,540.08 points to settle at 240,743.19 points versus Monday’s 238,203.11 points, and the market capitalisation gained N1.649 trillion to close at N154.484 trillion, in contrast to the preceding day’s N152.835 trillion.
As for the sectoral performance, the energy sector was down by 0.09 per cent, but the loss was offset by the gains recorded by the others.
The insurance counter grew by 2.84 per cent, the banking and the consumer goods indices rose by 0.18 per cent each, and the industrial goods segment expanded by 0.07 per cent.
Unlike on Monday, the market breadth index was positive on Tuesday, with Customs Street closing with 33 price gainers and 23 price losers, indicating bullish investor sentiment.
Guinea Insurance improved by 10.00 per cent to N1.10, International Energy Insurance advanced by 9.89 per cent to N6.11, Tripple Gee soared by 9.82 per cent to N3.69, Cornerstone Insurance climbed 9.76 per cent to N6.75, and Sovereign Trust Insurance surged by 8.63 per cent to N2.14.
On the flip side, Red Star Express dropped 9.96 per cent to trade at N24.85, Premier Paints depreciated by 9.93 per cent to N6.43, Trans-Nationwide Express declined by 9.82 per cent to N4.04, Royal Exchange shrank by 9.38 per cent to N1.45, and Abbey Mortgage Bank crashed by 9.29 per cent to N28.12.
Market activity improved during the trading day, with market participants transacting 564.9 million shares valued at N39.4 billion in 49,230 deals compared with the 475.8 million shares worth N36.5 billion traded in 63,567 deals a day earlier, implying a shortfall in the number of deals by 22.55 per cent, and a rise in the trading volume and value by 18.73 per cent and 7.95 per cent, respectively.
Fidelity Bank led the activity chart after a turnover of 59.4 million units worth N1.1 billion, Zenith Bank traded 49.5 million units valued at N5.9 billion, Dangote Sugar exchanged 43.1 million units for N3.1 billion, Chams sold 39.5 million units worth N156.5 million, and Access Holdings transacted 30.7 million units valued at N703.6 million.
-
Feature/OPED6 years agoDavos was Different this year
-
Travel/Tourism10 years ago
Lagos Seals Western Lodge Hotel In Ikorodu
-
Showbiz3 years agoEstranged Lover Releases Videos of Empress Njamah Bathing
-
Banking8 years agoSort Codes of GTBank Branches in Nigeria
-
Economy3 years agoSubsidy Removal: CNG at N130 Per Litre Cheaper Than Petrol—IPMAN
-
Banking3 years agoSort Codes of UBA Branches in Nigeria
-
Banking3 years agoFirst Bank Announces Planned Downtime
-
Sports3 years agoHighest Paid Nigerian Footballer – How Much Do Nigerian Footballers Earn


