Economy
Analysts Accuse DMO of Under-Reporting Nigeria’s Debts
By Dipo Olowookere
The Debt Management Office (DMO) has been accused of under-reporting Nigeria’s debt level.
In a report released last weekend titled, ‘Public Debt Vulnerable to Exchange Rate Movements,’ analysts at FSDH Merchant Bank Limited pointed out that the DMO uses N305 to a Dollar to calculate the country’s debt level, while the widely accepted rate in the foreign exchange market is about N360 to a Dollar.
“We are aware that the last Eurobond that the federal government borrowed, they did not convert the Dollars to Naira at N305 to a Dollar. It was converted to naira at about N340 to a Dollar.
“So, for example, if you have $1 billion that you converted at about N305 to a dollar, you will be reporting that you have N305 billion debt. But if you had converted it at N340 to a Dollar, it means you have N340 billion debt.
“But we all know that the ruling exchange rate we have in the market today is in the region of N360 to a Dollar. So, if you convert it at N360 to a Dollar, it means you are under-reporting the debt by about N55 billion.
“So, when we looked at the total external debts that we have in Dollars and we used N360 to a Dollar, it means that the debt should have increased by about N1.2 trillion. So, rather than reporting total debt of N22 trillion, it should have been over N23 trillion,” Head of Research at FSDH Merchant Bank, Mr Ayodele Akinwunmi, was quoted as saying in the report.
Mr Akinwunmi said further that, “The International Monetary Fund and World Bank have been saying we should harmonise our exchange rate. So, if we are going to harmonise our exchange rate, there is no way we are going to go back to N305 to a Dollar. Banks are not converting their assets at N305 to a Dollar.”
The FSDH report anticipated that interest rates and yields in the global financial market would increase further as the normalisation of monetary policy in advanced countries continues. This development was expected to have two major implications.
According to the report, firstly, countries or corporates that plan to raise money from the international debt market may pay higher interest rates because of rising yields.
Secondly, countries in emerging markets may adjust the yields on their fixed income securities to sustain the interests of investors, both local and foreign, in the instruments.
The United States Federal Reserve increased interest rate by 25 basis points to 1.75 percent to two percent at its June 2018 meeting.
Economy
Airtel Africa Grows Earnings to $4.7bn in Nine Months
By Aduragbemi Omiyale
About $4.7 billion was generated by Airtel Africa Plc in nine-month period ended December 31, 2025, details of the company’s financial statements revealed.
The telco disclosed that in the period under review, mobile services revenue grew by 23.3 per cent in constant currency, as data revenues, the largest contributor to group revenues, increased by 36.5 per cent, with voice revenues growing by 13.5 per cent.
In the same vein, EBITDA grew by 35.9 per cent in reported currency to $2.3 billion, with EBITDA margins expanding further to 48.9 per cent from 46.2 per cent in the prior period.
The third quarter of the fiscal year witnessed a further sequential increase in EBITDA margins to 49.6 per cent, driving EBITDA growth of 31.0 per cent in constant currency and 40.8 per cent in reported currency.
The financial results showed that profit after tax of $586 million improved from $248 million in the prior period. Higher profit after tax in the current period was driven by higher operating profit and derivative and foreign exchange gains of $99 million versus the $153 million derivative and foreign exchange losses in the prior period.
Commenting, the chief executive of Airtel Africa, Mr Sunil Taldar, said, “These results highlight the strength of our strategy, with strong operating and financial trends across the business. During the quarter, we accelerated investment to enhance coverage and data capacity while also expanding our fibre network.
“Coupling this investment with innovative partnerships, strengthens our customer proposition and positions us to capture the considerable growth opportunity across our markets.
“Digitisation, technology innovation and embedding AI in our processes will also optimise the customer experience with increased digital offerings and closer integration of GSM and Airtel Money services allowing us to unlock the strong demand across our markets. Smartphone adoption continues to increase with penetration of 48.1 per cent, and we are seeing solid progress in the development of our home broadband business, reflecting the need for reliable, high-speed connectivity across our markets.
“Our push to enhance financial inclusion across the continent continues to gain momentum with our Mobile Money customer base expanding to 52 million, surpassing the 50 million milestone. Annualised total processed value of over $210 billion in Q3’26 underscores the depth of our merchants, agents and partner ecosystem, and remains a key player in driving improved access to financial services across Africa. We remain on track for the listing of Airtel Money in the first half of 2026.
“Disciplined execution on cost efficiency, alongside accelerating revenue growth has enabled another sequential improvement in our quarterly EBITDA margin to 49.6 per cent, – underpinning constant currency EBITDA growth of 31 per cent – and we remain focussed on driving further incremental margin improvements.
“Our strategic priorities remain clear: to keep investing in best in class connectivity, accelerate financial inclusion through our mobile money platform and deliver a great customer experience. These results reinforce our confidence in the long term potential of our markets and our ability to create value for all our stakeholders.”
Economy
Interest Rates May Remain Elevated Despite Inflation Cooling—PwC
By Adedapo Adesanya
According to PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC), Nigeria’s benchmark interest rate is likely to remain elevated in 2026 even as inflation shows signs of easing.
Speaking at the PwC–BusinessDay Executive Roundtable on Nigeria’s 2026 budget and economic outlook in Lagos on Thursday, the Chief Economist and Head of Strategy at PwC, Mr Olusegun Zaccheaus, said expectations of aggressive interest rate cuts might be premature even with the core factor – inflation – seen cooling.
“Interest rates may remain elevated despite inflation cooling for most of 2025,” Mr Zaccheaus said. “Perhaps not by the 500 basis points some hope for, due to the need to manage liquidity.”
The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) had more than doubled its policy rate from 2022 levels in a bid to rein in inflationary pressures, before implementing a 50 basis-point cut in September that brought the monetary policy rate to 27 per cent.
The move followed a sharp moderation in inflation from its late-2024 peak. Inflation slowed to 15.15 per cent in December 2025, while the economy expanded by 3.98 per cent in the third quarter, its strongest quarterly growth in years.
At the last Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting of the CBN in November 2025 voted to keep the interest steady.
The PwC official warned that warned that underlying risks, including exchange-rate volatility, fiscal pressures and global uncertainty, continue to complicate the outlook.
Mr Zaccheaus said that a major challenge for the apex bank will be to control the volume of money circulating in the economy.
He advised that liquidity management remains critical as excess cash can quickly undermine dis-inflation efforts particularly as the 2027 election cycle is around the corner.
He said that Nigeria typically experiences rapid growth in money supply ahead of election cycles, driven by increased government spending and political activity, adding that without careful coordination, such expansions risk fueling inflation and weakening investor confidence.
“The responsibility of the central bank is to ensure liquidity does not grow in a way that has a negative macroeconomic impact,” Mr Zaccheaus said.
He noted that a stable currency environment would support improved capital allocation and investment planning.
“FX stability is crucial,” Mr Zaccheaus said. “It gives investors confidence and allows businesses to plan. But that stability depends on disciplined policy execution.”
Economy
Dangote Refinery Assures Steady Daily Supply of 75 million Litres of PMS, Others
By Aduragbemi Omiyale
If the assurance from the Dangote Petroleum Refinery is anything to take to the bank, then consumers of petroleum products in Nigeria have nothing to worry about in terms of availability.
The refinery has assured that it has the capacity to supply to them on a daily basis about 75 million litres of premium motor spirit (PMS), otherwise known as petrol; 25 litres of automated gas oil (AGO), also known as diesel; and 20 litres of jet fuel.
Nigeria is estimated to consume about 50 million litres of petrol per day, 14 million litres of diesel, and four litres of aviation fuel.
Dangote Refinery in a statement said the availability of volumes above prevailing demand provides critical supply buffers, enhances market stability and reduces reliance on imports, particularly during periods of peak demand or logistical disruption.
“The management of Dangote Petroleum Refinery would like to reiterate our capability to supply the underlisted petroleum products of the highest international quality standard to marketers and stakeholders,” it said in a public notice.
Industry analysts noted that supplying above estimated consumption reduces the need for emergency imports, strengthens inventory cover, enhances the resilience of the domestic supply chain, and boosts the foreign exchange ecosystem, thereby fortifying the value of the Naira in the currency market.
Dangote Refinery has also reaffirmed its commitment to full regulatory compliance and continued cooperation with the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA), stating that its supply approach is aligned with ongoing efforts to ensure market stability and orderly downstream operations.
It said it remains fully engaged with regulators and industry stakeholders in support of Nigeria’s national energy security objectives, as the country deepens its transition from fuel import dependence to domestic refining. It added that it continues to work closely with market participants to ensure that the benefits of local refining, including reliable supply, competitive pricing and improved market discipline are delivered consistently to consumers nationwide.
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