Economy
Nigeria’s Economy Strong Enough to Absorb Oil Market Shocks—Edun
By Adedapo Adesanya
The federal government has begun assessing the potential economic implications of the escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and adjusting policies to shield Nigeria from possible disruptions.
This was disclosed by the Minister of Finance, Mr Wale Edun, as the Economic Management Team (EMT) convened to evaluate the risks posed by the US-Israel-Iran standoff to global energy routes, such as the Strait of Hormuz.
He said Nigeria’s robust 4.07 per cent real GDP growth in Q4 2025 positions the country to weather looming oil market shocks from Iran tensions.
Mr Edun, who chairs the EMT, in a statement issued on Tuesday by the Assistant Director for Information and Public Relations in the ministry, Uloma Amadi, said the government was closely monitoring developments and remained committed to safeguarding Nigeria’s economic stability.
The EMT moved to review the potential impact of the unfolding crisis on the Nigerian economy.
Mr Edun also chaired a Naira-for-Crude policy coordination meeting to evaluate developments in the global energy market and their possible domestic implications.
The government noted that the situation remained fluid, with global markets already showing signs of uncertainty amid concerns about potential disruptions to critical energy supply routes, particularly the Strait of Hormuz.
Such disruptions, it said, could lead to volatility in crude oil prices and financial markets worldwide.
Given Nigeria’s integration into global commodity and financial markets, the government identified three major channels through which the crisis could affect the domestic economy.
These include crude oil and gas prices, capital flows and financial market conditions, as well as global logistics and supply costs.
The statement noted that volatility in global energy markets was already pushing up the prices of key commodities, with possible implications for domestic fuel, diesel, cooking gas, and fertiliser costs.
It added that heightened geopolitical risks could also lead to a shift by global investors toward safe-haven assets, potentially affecting capital inflows into emerging markets, including Nigeria.
In addition, disruptions to major shipping and energy supply routes could increase international freight and logistics costs, thereby exerting upward pressure on domestic prices.
The Minister of Finance noted that, beyond these immediate effects, sustained instability in the region could lead to higher prices for goods and services, further intensifying inflationary pressures and the cost of living.
During the EMT meeting, ministers provided sector-specific updates on the evolving situation, with discussions focusing on the likely scale of impact on Nigeria depending on the duration and intensity of the conflict.
Particular attention was placed on how developments in the global oil market could influence Nigeria’s fiscal outlook and external reserves.
The government said the Economic Management Team is closely monitoring key macroeconomic indicators, including global crude oil prices, exchange rate developments, and their potential impact on domestic prices.
It is also tracking capital flows, financial market conditions and broader implications for Nigeria’s fiscal position.
Despite global uncertainty, the Federal Government said Nigeria is entering the period from a position of strengthened economic fundamentals.
It cited recent economic data showing that the country recorded a real Gross Domestic Product growth of 4.07 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2025, one of the strongest quarterly performances in more than a decade.
According to the statement, the growth reflects the impact of ongoing economic reforms and improved macroeconomic coordination.
The government said it remains committed to protecting these gains and ensuring that recent progress in economic stabilisation and revenue mobilisation is not undermined by external shocks.
To achieve this, the Economic Management Team is maintaining close coordination across fiscal, monetary and energy policy institutions.
Policy options are also being kept under continuous review to mitigate potential volatility and protect households and businesses from the possible spillover effects of the global crisis.
Mr Edun emphasised that careful policy calibration would remain central to the government’s response to evolving global developments.
By Adedapo Adesanya
The Nigeria Customs Service (NCS) is seeking a reduction in import duty exemptions, which rose to N34 trillion, limiting its ability to increase its revenue generation threshold.
The Comptroller-General of the Customs Service, Mr Adewale Adeniyi, disclosed that the value of import duty exemption certificate approvals increased to that level in 2025, describing the policy as one of the major factors restricting its revenue generation.
At an investigative session of the Senate Committee on Finance with revenue-generating agencies in Abuja on Monday, Mr Adeniyi explained that government fiscal policies have continued to impact the revenue-generating capacity of the Customs Service, both positively and negatively.
“The NCS would have generated significantly higher revenue over the years if not for government-approved import duty waivers and other external factors affecting collections,” he said.
He added that the Import Duty Exemption Certificate scheme, introduced in March 2020, accounted for about N34 trillion in approvals in 2025, with nearly 60 per cent covering duty-free importation of military hardware due to Nigeria’s prevailing security challenges.
Other government-backed duty waivers, he noted, covered the importation of Compressed Natural Gas (CNG), electric and hybrid vehicles, healthcare equipment and medical supplies, industrial machinery and manufacturing inputs, as well as food import intervention programmes.
While acknowledging the impact of the waivers on Customs revenue, Mr Adeniyi argued that fiscal policy should not be assessed solely on the basis of revenue generation but also on its broader economic and social objectives.
He, however, urged the federal government to establish stronger monitoring mechanisms to ensure beneficiaries of duty waivers deliver the intended economic outcomes, including lower consumer prices, increased local production and improved healthcare access.
The committee also expressed displeasure over the absence of several heads of government agencies invited to the hearing, including the Nigerian Civil Aviation Authority (NCAA), Small and Medium Enterprises Development Agency of Nigeria (SMEDAN), Industrial Training Fund (ITF), and the Federal Medical Centre (FMC), Jabi.
The Chairman of the Senate Committee on Finance, Mr Sani Musa, warned that the affected chief executives must appear at the committee’s next sitting or face severe sanctions under the Senate’s rules.
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By Adedapo Adesanya
The NASD Over-the-Counter (OTC) Securities Exchange rose by 0.40 per cent on Monday, July 13, buoyed by buying interest in 11 Plc, Central Securities Clearing System (CSCS) Plc and UBN Property Plc, which offset the profit-taking in Food Concepts Plc, the parent company of Chicken Republic.
11 Plc gained N20.69 to end at N227.64 per share compared with last Friday’s price of N206.95 per share, CSCS Plc grew by N1.83 to N91.48 per unit from N89.65 per unit, and UBN Property Plc added 1 Kobo to sell at N1.81 per share versus N1.80 per share.
On the flip side, Food Concepts Plc depreciated by 24 Kobo to close at N2.45 per unit, in contrast to the preceding session’s N2.69 per unit.
As a result, the market capitalisation increased by N9.2 billion to N2.587 trillion from N2.578 trillion, and the NASD Security Index (NSI) improved by 15.33 points to 4,311.67 points from 4,296.34 points.
Yesterday, the volume of securities traded by investors surged by 615.9 per cent to 9.1 million units from the previous 1.3 million units, and the value of securities rose by 997.1 per cent to N320.4 million from the preceding session’s N29.2 million, while the number of deals decreased by 12.5 per cent to 28 deals from last Friday’s 32 deals.
At the close of trades, Great Nigeria Insurance (GNI) Plc remained the most active stock by value on a year-to-date basis, with 3.4 billion units valued at N8.4 billion, followed by Infrastructure Credit Guarantee (Infracredit) Plc with 2.3 billion units worth N6.5 billion, and CSCS Plc with 73.9 million units exchanged for N5.2 billion.
GNI Plc also closed the session as the most traded stock by volume on a year-to-date basis, with 3.4 billion units sold for N8.4 billion, followed by Infracredit Plc with 2.3 billion units traded for N6.5 billion, and Resourcery Plc with 1.1 billion units transacted for N415.7 million.
