Economy
Nigeria’s Economy Strong Enough to Absorb Oil Market Shocks—Edun
By Adedapo Adesanya
The federal government has begun assessing the potential economic implications of the escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and adjusting policies to shield Nigeria from possible disruptions.
This was disclosed by the Minister of Finance, Mr Wale Edun, as the Economic Management Team (EMT) convened to evaluate the risks posed by the US-Israel-Iran standoff to global energy routes, such as the Strait of Hormuz.
He said Nigeria’s robust 4.07 per cent real GDP growth in Q4 2025 positions the country to weather looming oil market shocks from Iran tensions.
Mr Edun, who chairs the EMT, in a statement issued on Tuesday by the Assistant Director for Information and Public Relations in the ministry, Uloma Amadi, said the government was closely monitoring developments and remained committed to safeguarding Nigeria’s economic stability.
The EMT moved to review the potential impact of the unfolding crisis on the Nigerian economy.
Mr Edun also chaired a Naira-for-Crude policy coordination meeting to evaluate developments in the global energy market and their possible domestic implications.
The government noted that the situation remained fluid, with global markets already showing signs of uncertainty amid concerns about potential disruptions to critical energy supply routes, particularly the Strait of Hormuz.
Such disruptions, it said, could lead to volatility in crude oil prices and financial markets worldwide.
Given Nigeria’s integration into global commodity and financial markets, the government identified three major channels through which the crisis could affect the domestic economy.
These include crude oil and gas prices, capital flows and financial market conditions, as well as global logistics and supply costs.
The statement noted that volatility in global energy markets was already pushing up the prices of key commodities, with possible implications for domestic fuel, diesel, cooking gas, and fertiliser costs.
It added that heightened geopolitical risks could also lead to a shift by global investors toward safe-haven assets, potentially affecting capital inflows into emerging markets, including Nigeria.
In addition, disruptions to major shipping and energy supply routes could increase international freight and logistics costs, thereby exerting upward pressure on domestic prices.
The Minister of Finance noted that, beyond these immediate effects, sustained instability in the region could lead to higher prices for goods and services, further intensifying inflationary pressures and the cost of living.
During the EMT meeting, ministers provided sector-specific updates on the evolving situation, with discussions focusing on the likely scale of impact on Nigeria depending on the duration and intensity of the conflict.
Particular attention was placed on how developments in the global oil market could influence Nigeria’s fiscal outlook and external reserves.
The government said the Economic Management Team is closely monitoring key macroeconomic indicators, including global crude oil prices, exchange rate developments, and their potential impact on domestic prices.
It is also tracking capital flows, financial market conditions and broader implications for Nigeria’s fiscal position.
Despite global uncertainty, the Federal Government said Nigeria is entering the period from a position of strengthened economic fundamentals.
It cited recent economic data showing that the country recorded a real Gross Domestic Product growth of 4.07 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2025, one of the strongest quarterly performances in more than a decade.
According to the statement, the growth reflects the impact of ongoing economic reforms and improved macroeconomic coordination.
The government said it remains committed to protecting these gains and ensuring that recent progress in economic stabilisation and revenue mobilisation is not undermined by external shocks.
To achieve this, the Economic Management Team is maintaining close coordination across fiscal, monetary and energy policy institutions.
Policy options are also being kept under continuous review to mitigate potential volatility and protect households and businesses from the possible spillover effects of the global crisis.
Mr Edun emphasised that careful policy calibration would remain central to the government’s response to evolving global developments.
Economy
We Will Continue to Borrow Responsibly—Tinubu
By Adedapo Adesanya
President Bola Tinubu has said that Nigeria would continue to borrow responsibly amid rising concerns about the country’s swelling debt profile.
According to a statement by presidential spokesperson, Mr Bayo Onanuga, President Tinubu made the remarks on Tuesday while leading Nigeria’s government, diplomatic, and business delegation to the Africa Forward Summit at the Kenyatta Convention Centre in Nairobi.
Mr Tinubu noted that the debt to be repaid in the year is nearly half of the projected revenue, at about $11.6 billion.
“Every single dollar that leaves our treasury to pay punitive interest rates is a Dollar that did not go into our steel sector, our textile mills, our agro-processing plants, or our digital industries. It is a dollar that did not train a young Nigerian engineer or provide affordable power for our factories.
“Our industrial base is being starved of the blood it needs — long-term, affordable finance — while creditors and rating agencies treat African sovereigns as permanent high-risk borrowers, regardless of our fiscal performance.
“So, I ask this gathering: how can an African manufacturer compete with a competitor in Europe, Asia, or North America when the cost of borrowing in our nations is five to ten times higher? How can we build cross-border industrial value chains under the African Continental Free Trade Area when our infrastructure projects face a financing gap deepened by the very institutions meant to bridge it? The answer is plain: we cannot. The international financial architecture, as currently constituted, is an instrument of industrial disarmament for Africa.”
He emphasised that Nigeria is not asking for charity, adding that the country will have to borrow, albeit responsibly.
“We are demanding a financial system that intentionally enables Africa to industrialise — to process its own minerals, refine its own crude oil, manufacture its own pharmaceuticals, and compete fairly in global markets.
“We will continue to borrow responsibly, but we insist that our creditworthiness be measured by our economic fundamentals and our industrial potential, not by outdated stereotypes,” he noted.
He called for deeper economic integration across Africa, stressing the need for policies that prioritise the continent’s industrial growth and prosperity.
Mr Tinubu highlighted Nigeria’s blue economy potential as a key driver of Africa’s development, noting that it had long been underutilised due to insecurity and uncertainty.
“Today, I make an explicit commitment: Nigeria will intensify regional coordination by offering our Deep Blue Project’s maritime intelligence infrastructure as a shared data hub for willing Gulf of Guinea states. Interoperable systems, harmonised laws, and seamless joint enforcement must become the daily reality, not an aspiration on paper.
“Let no one misunderstand: maritime sovereignty does not repel investment — it attracts it. Secure sea lanes, predictable regulation, and functional courts are the preconditions that unlock private capital. Governance has de-risked Nigeria’s maritime proposition. We now invite partners to build on these gains as we advance climate-aligned port modernisation and the digital transformation of our maritime sector.
“As we endorse the Nairobi Declaration, Nigeria affirms that maritime sovereignty and ocean governance are the non-negotiable foundations of Africa’s Blue Economy transformation. We will continue to earn that sovereignty — through institutions, through assets, through law, and through iron-clad regional solidarity that turns our waters from a theatre of risk into a story of shared resilience.
“The oceans have no duplicate as a common heritage of mankind. For Africa, moving from sea blindness to ocean sovereignty is not a choice — it is a generational duty. Nigeria is ready, and we invite all present to join us in that duty,” the President stated.
Economy
Middle East Tensions: Dangote Refinery Exports 1.66 billion Litres of Petroleum Products
By Adedapo Adesanya
An estimated 1.66 billion litres of refined petroleum products were exported by Dangote Petroleum Refinery in April 2026, amid continued tensions in the Middle East and fears of possible disruption to global fuel supply routes following the growing conflict involving the United States and Iran.
According to the latest data from the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA), the country exported about 513 million litres of Premium Motor Spirit (PMS), popularly called petrol; 534 million litres of Automotive Gas Oil (AGO), also known as diesel; and 615 million litres of aviation fuel within the month under review.
The Dangote refinery is the only major functional refinery in Nigeria that currently produces enough refined petroleum products for both local consumption and export.
This is the first month the refinery has exported such a high volume of petroleum products, especially jet fuel and diesel, indicating the significance of the 650,000-barrel-per-day plant.
The combined export volume translates to approximately 55.4 million litres daily. The development comes as the international oil market faces fresh uncertainty over the security of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical global oil shipping route, following the failure of the United States and Iran to agree on a peace deal.
The NMDPRA document showed that local refineries operated at an average capacity utilisation of 99.12 per cent in April, with the Dangote refinery accounting for the lion’s share of production.
The downstream regulator stated that the refinery achieved 100 per cent capacity utilisation “for most of the days in April.” The report also indicated that domestic refineries received 18.37 million barrels of crude oil in April, up from 13.11 million barrels recorded in March.
Findings further showed that the refinery maintained strong export momentum despite increased domestic supply obligations.
According to the April fact sheet, average daily petrol production stood at 53.6 million litres, while 40.7 million litres were supplied locally and 17.1 million litres were exported daily.
Similarly, diesel production averaged 23.6 million litres daily, with exports accounting for 17.8 million litres per day, more than double the domestic supply volume of 8 million litres daily. For aviation fuel, exports stood at 20.5 million litres daily, compared to the domestic supply of 2.6 million litres per day.
The strong aviation fuel export performance comes weeks after reports emerged that domestic airline operators threatened to shut down over the rising cost of the fuel.
There are reports that Nigeria has become a net petrol exporter for the first time in decades due to rising output from the Dangote refinery. The refinery had earlier exported about 434 million litres of petrol in March after domestic production exceeded local consumption levels.
The latest figures underscore Nigeria’s gradual transition from a major importer of refined petroleum products to an export hub within Africa. It was observed that jet fuel exports may rise further if instability in the Middle East continues to disrupt traditional supply chains serving Europe and other regions.
The Middle East accounts for a substantial share of global aviation fuel exports, with the Strait of Hormuz serving as a strategic transit corridor for crude oil and refined petroleum products. The prolonged disruption in the region has tightened global fuel supply and pushed up prices internationally.
The NMDPRA report also revealed that Nigerians consumed an average of 51.1 million litres of petrol daily in April, slightly above the 50 million litres benchmark estimated by the regulator. Diesel consumption stood at 17.3 million litres daily, while aviation fuel consumption averaged 2.5 million litres per day.
Economy
Nigeria, Binance Begin Settlement Talks in Tax Evasion Suit
By Adedapo Adesanya
The federal government of Nigeria and Binance are trying to settle a major tax evasion case out of court instead of continuing full trial proceedings immediately.
The Federal High Court in Abuja on Tuesday adjourned the alleged tax evasion case filed by the federal government against Binance Holdings Limited until July 9 for a report of settlement.
Justice Emeka Nwite adjourned the matter after Binance lawyer, Mr Chukwuka Ikwuazom (SAN), and the federal government’s counsel, Mrs Omotola Fatogun, informed the court that parties were still discussing settling the case out of court.
The cryptocurrency company had, on March 24, sought an amicable resolution of the matter.
Another lawyer, Mr Sunday Adaji, who represents Binance, informed the court that discussions were ongoing.
Mr Moses Ideho, a Deputy Director, Legal Department, Federal Inland Revenue Service (now Nigeria Revenue Service), confirmed the development on the federal government’s behalf.
Binance Holdings Limited was, on July 12, 2024, re-arraigned on a four-count charge bordering on tax evasion allegations.
The Nigerian representative of Binance, Mr Ayodele Omotilewa, who was docked, took a plea on behalf of the company before Justice Nwite.
He pleaded not guilty to the four counts.
The re-arraignment before the judge followed the discharge of the cryptocurrency firm’s executive, Mr Tigran Gambaryan, and his fleeing colleague, Mr Nadeem Anjarwalla, from the alleged offence.
Justice Nwite, in a ruling on June 14, 2024, discharged and struck out Gambaryan and Anjarwalla’s names from the charge after Ideho filed an amended charge wherein Binance is listed as the sole defendant.
The amended charge was dated June 13, 2024, but filed June 14, 2024.
The Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC) is also prosecuting the cryptocurrency company on allegations bordering on money laundering offences before the same judge.
The anti-graft agency had accused Binance of money laundering to the tune of $35.4 million.
Besides, Binance is also facing another civil suit before Justice Mohammed Umar, a brother judge, where the FIRS is demanding about $79.5 billion over economic losses allegedly caused by the company’s operations in Nigeria.
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