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Analysts Expect Rate Hike in First Post-Emefiele MPC Meeting

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Interest Rates

By Adedapo Adesanya

All indicators point to a continued hike in Nigeria’s interest rate in the first Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting since President Bola Tinubu ascended to the highest office in government and booted out the Governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), Mr Godwin Emefiele.

In the last meeting held in May, the CBN’s MPC, which makes the decision, raised the benchmark interest rate to 18.50 per cent from 18.00 per cent as inflation remained stubbornly high.

With Mr Emefiele out of office, developments in the last two months indicate that Nigeria will further review the MPR upward in the first meeting to be presided over by the acting CBN Governor, Mr Folashodun Shonubi, next week Tuesday (July 25).

After the President announced that moving forward, the government would no longer pay for costly fuel subsidies, prices of basic needs like food and transportation surged.

Nigerians soon had to contend with the unification of the exchange rate that sent the Naira to around N800 against the US Dollar and worsened the cost of imported goods.

There were also plans of a possible rise in electricity tariffs, which is being keenly contested.

Further hint that the rate hike will come yesterday after the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS)  announced that inflation rose for the sixth month in a row in June to 22.79 per cent year-on-year from 22.41 per cent in May, putting pressure on the central bank to tighten policy further.

Inflation has been in double-digits in Nigeria since 2016 and for the entirety of his administration, former President Muhammadu Buhari targeted bringing the rate down to 9 per cent but to no avail.

Analysts have warned that the weakening Naira currency and the fuel subsidy removal will continue to push inflation higher in the short term.

On their part, CSL Stockbrokers Limited analysts, Mrs Gloria Fadipe and Mrs Sunmisola Ikoli-Oluwo, said in a note that, “We do not believe the monetary authorities will be willing to raise the policy rate much higher than current levels given the new administration’s perceived bias for low-interest rates.

“Going into the second half, we forecast at most a 150 basis-point rise in rates till the end of the year.”

Earlier this month, Bank of America (BOA) said Nigeria might need to hike interest rates to as much as 25 per cent to be able to tackle soaring inflation, according to its sub-Saharan Africa economist, Mr Tatonga Rusike said.

Adedapo Adesanya is a journalist, polymath, and connoisseur of everything art. When he is not writing, he has his nose buried in one of the many books or articles he has bookmarked or simply listening to good music with a bottle of beer or wine. He supports the greatest club in the world, Manchester United F.C.

Economy

FrieslandCampina, CSCS Sink NASD Exchange by 6.46%

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FrieslandCampina

By Adedapo Adesanya

The duo of FrieslandCampina Wamco Nigeria Plc and Central Securities Clearing System (CSCS) Plc sank the NASD Over-the-Counter (OTC) Securities Exchange by 6.46 per cent on Wednesday, May 14.

The bellwethers shrank the market capitalisation of the platform by N127.15 billion to N1.840 trillion from N1.967 trillion and the NASD Unlisted Security Index (NSI) slid by 217.15 points to 3,142.64 points from the previous session’s 3,359.79 points.

FrieslandCampina Wamco Nigeria Plc, which produces Peak Milk, Three Crowns, Coast, and Nunu brands, lost N3.56 during the trading session to close at N37.74 per share compared with the previous closing value of N41.30 per share, and CSCS Plc went down by 22 Kobo to trade at N26.98 per unit versus Tuesday’s closing price of N27.20 per unit.

On the flip side, Geo Fluids Plc added 19 Kobo to close at N2.10 per share compared with the preceding day’s N1.91 per share, and Costain Plc grew by 5 Kobo to end at 60 Kobo per unit, in contrast to the previous day’s 55 Kobo per unit.

The volume of securities transacted in the midweek session slipped by 99.6 per cent to 1.7 million units from the 414.5 million units traded a day earlier, the value of transactions slumped by 94.2 per cent to N61.7 million from N1.05 billion, while the number of deals rose by a 144 per cent to 61 deals from the 25 deals recorded a day earlier.

At the close of transactions, Impresit Bakolori Plc remained the most active stock by volume on a year-to-date basis with 536.9 million units worth N524.7 million, the second position was taken by Geo-Fluids Plc with 266.3 million units valued at N470.5 million, and the third spot was occupied by Okitipupa Plc with 153.6 million units sold for N4.9 billion.

The most traded stock by value on a year-to-date basis was Okitipupa Plc with 153.6 million units worth N4.9 billion, trailed by FrieslandCampina Wamco Nigeria Plc with 21.6 million units valued at N830.9 million, and Impresit Bakolori Plc with 536.9 million units sold for N524.7 million.

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Economy

Nigeria’s Economy Witnessing Significant Turnaround—FG

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Nigeria Economy challenges

By Modupe Gbadeyanka

The federal government has said bold reforms, improved coordination, and a renewed focus on national priorities by the administration of President Bola Tinubu has led to a significant turnaround in the Nigerian economy.

The Minister of Budget and Economic Planning, Mr Abubakar Atiku Bagudu, in a feature interview, attributed this to the bold step taken by Mr Tinubu to tackle the economic challenges faced by the country.

The feature interview is for an upcoming TV documentary marking President Tinubu’s second anniversary.

Mr Bagudu said the Renewed Hope Agenda of the current government was working and winning over investors at home and abroad, reaffirming the government’s commitment to the economic reforms.

“Mr President confronted Nigeria’s economic realities with bold and necessary choices—tough as they might be—and those measures are now yielding results,” he stated, noting that the reform-driven economy has seen four consecutive quarters of GDP growth, exchange rate stability, and a resurgence in private sector confidence.

“We have seen four quarters of successive economic growth, stability in foreign exchange, and appreciation by Nigerians and the international community. Rating agencies have consistently appreciated what we are doing,” Mr Bagudu stated, adding that foreign and domestic investors have responded positively to the government’s economic agenda, particularly agriculture, energy, and infrastructure.

“We have seen investors from Brazil, Belarus, and Saudi Arabia increasingly entering our agricultural space. The world economic community and multilateral institutions are putting more faith in our economy,” he noted.

According to the Minister, this renewed interest stems from the administration’s commitment to credibility, transparency, and structural change.

“Investors want to see good policy—can I get paid back? Are the numbers credible? Is the environment transparent? That’s why they appreciate when they see quarterly GDP growth,” he said.

“For the first time in 25 years, Nigeria is refining oil. Mr President was courageous enough to allow crude sale in naira to our refiners. This is a testament to his belief in our economy,” he added.

The Minister described removing fuel subsidies and unifying the foreign exchange market as transformative decisions restoring fiscal sanity.

“We were losing 5 per cent of our GDP on fuel subsidy—money going to just a few,” he said, noting that, “Mr. President took the courageous step to end it.”

“The foreign exchange reform removed uncertainty and favouritism. We now have a fair market—willing buyer, willing seller—which has generated revenue growth and boosted private sector confidence,” he remarked.

Mr Bagudu said the 2024 and 2025 budgets balance fiscal responsibility and strategic investment in priority sectors, noting that, “We have increased spending in health, education, infrastructure, security, and technology. The 2024 budget achieved significant deficit reduction, and more importantly, it showed that we are serious—and the markets believed us.”

He emphasised President Tinubu’s respect for the rule of law, even in managing inherited debt and Central Bank financing, saying “Mr President inherited N22.7 trillion in Ways and Means financing, but he insisted on respecting the Central Bank’s independence. That discipline is earning us credibility globally.”

The Minister credited the Presidential Economic Coordination Council and the Economic Management Team—led by President Tinubu and Coordinating Minister for the Economy, Wale Edun—with ensuring coherent, results-driven governance.

“This is teamwork. The President is the chief coordinator. He understands the global economic context, and the private sector respects him. We’re not just doing government-to-government coordination—the private sector is part of this reform effort,” he stated.

While acknowledging that the reforms may feel challenging in the short term, Bagudu likened the process to a necessary fitness regimen.

“Our economy is like a body going to the gym. It might feel painful now, but the muscles of progress are forming. Mr President is saying: ‘I’m ready to take the pain so our children and grandchildren will inherit a more prosperous Nigeria.’ This isn’t just economic reform—it’s a moral responsibility,” Mr Bagudu added.

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Economy

Naira Appreciates to N1,596/$1 at NAFEM, N1,620/$1 at Black Market

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deposit old Naira notes

By Adedapo Adesanya

The Naira improved its value against the US Dollar at the Nigerian Autonomous Foreign Exchange Market (NAFEX) on Wednesday, May 14 by N3.26 or 0.20 per cent to settle at N1,596.75/$1, in contrast to the preceding day’s rate of N1,600.01/$1.

The renewed boost at the FX market came after the temporary US-China tariff reduction agreement and recent rally in oil prices, spurring the country’s external reserves to climb, standing above $38 billion amidst uncertainties in the global commodity market.

However, the local currency tumbled against the Pound Sterling in the official market at midweek by N7.09 to finish at N2,125.37/£1 compared with the preceding session’s N2,118.28/£1 and depreciated against the Euro by N6.52 to sell for N1,790.38/€1 versus Tuesday’s rate of N1,783.87/€1, according to data from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN).

As for the parallel market, the Nigerian Naira appreciated against its American counterpart yesterday by N10 to quote at N1,620/$1 compared with the previous day’s value of N1,630/$1.

A look at the cryptocurrency market showed that it tumbled on Wednesday due to profit-taking after the administration of President Donald Trump of the US and China hammered out a temporary suspension of their tariff disputes.

Also, the latest reading of Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed that prices rose at a slower pace than expected in April in the world’s largest economy.

Dogecoin (DOGE) depreciated by 6.1 per cent to sell at $0.2293, Litecoin (LTC) recorded a 5.1 per cent fall to trade at $98.72, Cardano (ADA) declined by 4.9 per cent to $0.7861, Solana (SOL) slumped by 4.7 per cent to $173.89, Ripple (XRP) lost 3.3 per cent to finish at $2.50, Ethereum (ETH) slipped by 3.1 per cent to $2,578.90, Binance Coin (BNB) went south by 2.9 per cent to $649.08, and Bitcoin (BTC) depreciated by 1.1 per cent to $102,583.51, while the US Dollar Tether (USDT) and the US Dollar Coin (USDC) sold flat at $1.00 apiece.

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