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Analysts Projects Further Ease in Nigeria’s August Inflation to 32.40%

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inflation rate Nigeria

By Aduragbemi Omiyale

The inflation rate in Nigeria for August 2024 should marginally moderate by 1.00 per cent on a month-on-month basis to 32.40 per cent from the 33.40 per cent recorded in July 2024, analysts at Meristem Research have predicted.

Last month, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) said the average prices of goods and services in the country eased for the first time in 18 months as a result of a slight improvement in food supply due to the harvest season.

The agency is expected to release the numbers for last month in the coming days, and for those at Meristem Research, the rise in the price of premium motor spirit (PMS), otherwise known as petrol, may not cause another jump in inflation despite consumers unable to purchase the product with ease in the period under review.

In September 2024, the Nigerian National Petroleum Company (NNPC) Limited unofficially increased the pump price from N568 per litre to N855 per litre, while some independent oil marketers sell between N1,000 per litre and N1,200 per litre in Lagos.

In a note obtained by Business Post, Meristem Research said the slight decline in inflation for last month would be driven by “continued supply of the staple food and a high base effect from last year.

“We anticipate a moderation in headline inflation in August 2024, driven primarily by the high base effect from August 2023.

“Additionally, food inflation is anticipated to decline, hinged on the continued supply of the staple food mentioned earlier.

“In the same vein, we anticipate a slight fall in the core index for August 2024, also tied to the high base effect from the prior period.

“Furthermore, the relative stability of the Naira during the month (the naira depreciated by 0.90 per cent MoM compared to 6.87 per cent MoM in July) supports this outlook.

“Overall, we anticipate a further decline in the August 2024 inflation rate driven by the aforementioned factors,” parts of the note stated.

The firm said it expects the headline inflation at 32.40 per cent versus 33.40 per cent in July 2024, food inflation at 37.92 per cent versus 39.53 per cent in June 2024, and core inflation at 26.53 per cent versus 27.47 per cent in June 2024.

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Economy

FG Offers 18% Interest on Savings Bonds

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FGN Savings Bonds

By Adedapo Adesanya

The federal government is offering two new savings bonds with interest rates between 17 and 18 per cent through the Debt Management Office (DMO).

In a statement by the agency, the country said retail investors can purchase the two-year bond maturing in January 2027 at 17.23 per cent interest, while the three-year paper maturing in January 2028 at a coupon rate of 18.23 per cent.

Bonds are very safe financial instrument that serve as investments because they are backed by the federal government, which promises to pay back the money.

According to the DMO, people can buy these bonds starting January 13, 2025, until January 17, 2025, with allotment expected on January 22, 2025, and the interest to be paid to investors every three months – in April, July, October, and January.

These bonds have some special features. They are tax-free under both company and personal tax laws.

Big investors like pension funds and trustees are allowed to buy them and each bond costs N1,000 each.

However, interested investor can only  buy at least N5,000 worth, and can’t buy more than N50 million.

This comes after the Ms Patience Oniha-led debt office said the Nigerian government was offering three bonds worth N150 billion in September 2024.

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Economy

Reps Express Readiness to Pass Tax Reform Bills

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By Aduragbemi Omiyale

The House of Representatives has said it would make efforts to pass the controversial tax reform bills forwarded to the National Assembly by President Bola Tinubu last year.

Mr Tinubu, in a bid to improve revenue of the government, asked the parliament to pass the bills, but this has been resisted mostly by northern lawmakers and others.

At the resumption of plenary session on Tuesday in Abuja, the Speaker of the House of Representatives, Mr Abbas Tajudeen, assured that the green chamber of the legislative arm of government would prioritise the tax reform bills.

“The legislative agenda of the House for 2025 prioritises the passage of the Appropriation Bill and the Tax Reform Bills, both of which are pivotal to economic recovery and fiscal stability.

“These reforms are essential for broadening the tax base, improving compliance and reducing dependency on external borrowing.

“The House will ensure that these reforms are equitable and considerate of the needs of all Nigerians, particularly the most vulnerable,” Mr Abbas said through the Deputy Speaker, Mr Ben Kalu, who presided over the session.

He also expressed grief over the loss of lives in stampedes in Ibadan, Abuja and Anambra State last month due to hardship in the country.

Several Nigerians died in the stampedes while trying to receive palliatives given to alleviate their sufferings.

“Tragic events, such as the stampedes in Ibadan, Abuja and Okija, during the distribution of palliative aid, underline the urgent need for improved planning and safety protocols in humanitarian efforts. On behalf of the House, I extend our deepest sympathies to the families and communities affected.

“These incidents serve as a stark reminder of the socio-economic hardships facing our citizens and the imperative for policies that tackle hunger and poverty at their roots.

“Turning to the economy, 2024 presented both difficulties and opportunities. While inflation remains a pressing concern, progress in GDP growth and the positive trajectory of economic reforms provide hope for a more stable and prosperous 2025,” the Speaker said.

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Economy

NASD Index Appreciates 0.69% to 3,095.00 Points

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NASD Unlisted Security Index

By Adedapo Adesanya

The NASD Over-the-Counter (OTC) Securities Exchange recorded a 0.69 per cent appreciation on Monday, January 13, as investors showed renewed interests in unlisted securities.

During the trading session, the NASD Unlisted Security Index (NSI) increased by 21.07 points to wrap the session at 3,095.00 points compared with the 3,073.93 points recorded in the previous session.

In the same vein, the value of the local alternative stock exchange went up by N7.22 billion to close at N1.061 trillion compared with last Friday’s N1.051 trillion.

Yesterday, FrieslandCampina Wamco Nigeria Plc recorded a growth of N3.78 to close at N42.00 per share versus N38.22 per share, Mixta Real Estate Plc improved by 20 Kobo to end at N2.35 per unit versus the preceding closing rate of N2.15 per unit, and Industrial and General Insurance (IGI) Plc gained 1 Kobo to finish at 25 Kobo per share compared with the previous session’s 24 Kobo per share.

Conversely, Geo-Fluids Plc lost 29 Kobo to quote at N4.56 per unit compared with the preceding day’s N4.85 per unit, and Afriland Properties Plc slid by 75 kobo to end the session at N15.50 per share versus the preceding closing rate of N16.25 per share.

During the session, the volume of securities traded decreased by 27.2 per cent to 3.1 million units from 4.3 million units, the value of securities slumped by 81.5 per cent to N3.2 million from N17.2 million, and the number of deals expanded by 57.9 per cent to 30 deals from 19 deals.

At the close of trades, FrieslandCampina Wamco Nigeria Plc remained the most active stock by value (year-to-date) with 1.9 million units worth N74.2 million, followed by 11 Plc with 12,963 units valued at N3.2 million, and IGI Plc with 10.7 million units sold for N2.1 million.

Also, IGI Plc remained the most traded stock by volume (year-to-date) with 10.6 million units sold for N2.1 million, trailed by FrieslandCampina Wamco Nigeria Plc with 1.9 million units valued at N74.2 million, and Acorn Petroleum Plc with 1.2 million units worth N1.9 million.

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