August 2017 PMI: Will Q3-2017 GDP Be Positive?
The CBN published its Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) survey report earlier in the week, noting that Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing PMI stood at 53.6 and 54.1 points respectively. Above the 50index points level, Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing PMI prints indicate further improvement in economic activities in August 2017.
At 53.6 index points, Manufacturing PMI has sustained 5-straight months of expansion with 12 of the 16 sub-sectors reporting strong growth in August.
All 6 sub-indices also sustained uptrend with Supplier Delivery Time(52pts) and Inventories (54.9pts) reporting faster growth while Production Level (57.4pts), New Orders (52.3pts) and Employment Level (51.5) growing at a slower rate.
Similarly, Non-Manufacturing PMI (54.1pts) indicated expansion in Non-manufacturing activities for the fourth consecutive month with performance in 15 of the 18 sub-sectors further strengthening in August.
Employment Level (54.4pts) and Inventories (52.3pts) sub-indices grew at a faster rate while Business Activity (56.1pts) and New Orders (53.5pts) slowed.
Juxtaposing the August PMI reading with GDP growth, available data provides evidence that above 50pts PMI is consistent with positive GDP and vice versa. Accordingly, sustained expansion in PMI reading foreshadows another positive GDP growth in Q3-2017 with September being the only month left in the quarter.
Currency in Circulation in Nigeria Drops to N982.09bn in February
By Adedapo Adesanya
The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has revealed that the currency in circulation further dropped to N982.09 billion in February 2022.
This can be attributed to the Naira redesign policy of the apex bank, which was announced last October when total circulation was put at N3.29 trillion.
These figures revealed that N2.3 trillion or 235 per cent of the cash was mopped up from circulation during the period under review.
According to the CBN, the currency in circulation had moved from N3.16 trillion in November 2022 to N3.29 trillion in December 2022 but dropped heavily to N1.38 trillion in January 2023 and further to N982.09 billion in February 2023.
Last year, the central bank, as part of efforts to drive digital payment acceptance and cut down the currency outside the banking system, announced plans to roll out redesigned Naira notes of N200, N500, and N1,000 and phase out of the old Naira notes.
The Governor of the CBN, Mr Godwin Emefiele, said statistics showed that over 80 per cent of currency-in-circulation was outside the vaults of commercial banks.
He highlighted the need to reduce the significant amount of cash outside the banking system to ensure monetary policy effectiveness, curtail criminal activities, and ensure financial inclusion.
However, many complained about the 90-day window from the announcement to the execution of the policy.
What ensued for many was the unavailability of the new notes, with citizens unable to get cash which hindered their day-day activities. Many opted for digital transactions, which put a strain on a nascent infrastructure, with payment taking longer than expected with many services experiencing downtime.
Although the opportunities opened to the likes of OPay, PalmPay, and MoniePoint to tap into Nigeria’s micro-retail sector, on some days, it was a hassle for these channels to work, leading to increased failure and frustrations in online transactions.
The hardship spurred Kaduna, Kogi and Zamfara to sue the federal government over the naira redesign policy and joined on February 15 by Cross River, Sokoto, Lagos, Ogun, Katsina, Ondo and Ekiti states. Later, Nasarawa, Niger, Kano, Jigawa, Rivers and Abia states joined the suit.
Rivers and Abia states had filed separate suits that were consolidated with the main one.
However, Edo and Bayelsa had joined the side of the federal government in opposing the suit.
Succour came on March 3 when the Supreme Court extended the validity of the notes to December and faulted the ill-timed naira redesign policy.
It wasn’t until 10 days (March 13) after the ruling that the CBN, in a circular signed by Mr Isa AbdulMumin, the CBN’s acting director of corporate communications, directed all deposit money banks to comply with the Supreme Court ruling, further instructing all concerned parties to conform accordingly.
A day before that, President Buhari had distanced himself from the CBN governor and the Attorney General of the Federation (AGF)’s inability to obey the Supreme Court’s ruling.
He said that “at no time did he instruct the Attorney General and the CBN Governor to disobey any court orders involving the government and other parties.”
Analysts expect that as the CBN begin to recirculate the old notes till December, it will gradually ease the hardships of Nigerians and ensure economic activities return to normal in the country.
NASD Exchange Drops 0.05% Amid Losses in Three Stocks
By Adedapo Adesanya
The NASD Over-the-Counter (OTC) Securities Exchange returned to the bearish zone on Monday, March 20 as it depreciated by 0.05 per cent, driven by the negative price movements in three companies.
The price losers were led by Central Securities Clearing System (CSCS) Plc, which depreciated by 15 Kobo to close at N14.05 per share versus N14.20 per share, First Trust Microfinance Bank Plc lost 5 Kobo to trade at 47 Kobo per unit compared with the previous session’s 52 Kobo per unit, while Industrial and General Insurance (IGI) Plc fell by 1 Kobo to quote at 8 Kobo per unit compared with last Friday’s 9 Kobo per unit.
The trio weakened the impact of the 14 Kobo price appreciation achieved by Geo-Fluids Plc, which closed at N1.50 per share, in contrast to the preceding session’s N1.36 per share.
At the close of business, the market capitalisation of the NASD exchange shrank by N460 million to close the day at N960.66 billion versus the N961.12 billion it ended in the previous trading session.
Similarly, the NASD Unlisted Securities Index (NSI) went down by 0.35 points to finish at 731.09 points compared with 731.44 points in the previous session.
During the session, there was a surge of 7,753.9 per cent in the volume of securities traded at the bourse as investors exchanged 58.1 million units of securities compared with the previous trading day’s 739,755 units of securities.
Likewise, the value of shares traded at the session ballooned by 64.2 per cent to N50.3 million from the N30.6 million posted last Friday, while the number of deals increased by 20 per cent to 12 deals from the 10 deals executed in the preceding session.
At the close of trades, Geo-Fluids Plc remained the most traded stock by volume (year-to-date) with the sale of 455.3 million units valued at N493.6 million, followed by UBN Property Plc with 365.8 units worth N309.5 million, and IGI Plc with 25.1 million units worth N1.9 million.
The most active stock by value (year-to-date) was VFD Group Plc for exchanging 7.3 million units worth N1.7 billion, Geo-Fluids Plc was in second place with 455.3 million units valued at N493.6 million, while UBN Property Plc was in third place with 365.8 million units valued at N309.5 million.
Naira Trades N740/$1 at Black Market, N461.50/$1 at I&E
By Adedapo Adesanya
The Naira opened the week stronger against the US Dollar in the black market, the Peer-2-Peer (P2P), and the Investors and Exporters (I&E) segments of the foreign exchange (forex) market on Monday, March 20.
In the parallel market window, the Nigerian Naira gained N7 against the greenback to quote at N740/$1 compared with last Friday’s exchange rate of N747/$1.
In the P2P segment, the value of the local currency appreciated by N6 against the American currency to sell for N748/$1, in contrast to the preceding session’s N754/$1.
Similarly, the domestic currency improved against the US Dollar in the official market window by 33 Kobo or 0.07 per cent to trade at N461.50/$1 compared with N461.83/$1.
The local currency was strengthened in the spot market yesterday amid an FX demand pressure, which pushed the turnover for the day higher by 43.1 per cent or $37.85 million to $125.66 million from $87.81 million.
However, in the interbank segment of the market, the Naira lost N2.70 against the Pound Sterling to quote at N559.15/£1, in contrast to the previous session’s N556.45/£1 and against the Euro, it depreciated by N2.12 to close at N490.11/€1 versus last Friday’s N487.99/€1.
Meanwhile, the cryptocurrency market turned red on Monday as the Federal Reserve and other major central banks made coordinated moves to enhance market liquidity.
Litecoin (LTC) went southwards by 3.9 per cent to trade at $78.91, Dogecoin (DOGE) fell by 2.8 per cent to $0.0718, Ethereum (ETH) declined by 1.0 per cent to $1,743.47, Cardano (ADA) dipped by 0.7 per cent to $0.3382, and Binance Coin (BNB) lost 0.3 per cent to sell for $334.40.
However, Bitcoin (BTC) gained 1.2 per cent to quote $27,849.66 as markets responded to the deepening global banking crisis, amid the decision of UBS to buy Credit Suisse, a move engineered by Swiss authorities.
Also, Ripple (XRP) rose by 0.07 per cent to trade at $0.3836, Solana (SOL) grew by 0.06 per cent to sell at $22.43, as the US Dollar Tether (USDT) and Binance USD (BUSD) traded flat at $1.00 each.
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