Economy
Base Effects Dictate Inflation Trajectory
By ARM Securities
Nigeria’s headline inflation decelerated for the second consecutive month (-50bps) to 17.3% in March – though lagging the scale of moderation in prior month’s reading (-92bps).
Instructively, the reading was significantly behind Bloomberg consensus estimate of 16.7% as changes in food inflation (-10bps to 18.4% YoY) failed to keep pace with expected impact of naira gains at the parallel market in the review month.
That said, high base effect from 2016 electricity and PMS price hikes saw core inflation decelerate a further 60bps to 15.4% to dictate overall YoY headline trajectory. On a MoM basis, headline inflation increased by 1.72% (vs. 1.49% in prior month’s reading) largely reflecting unyielding food pressures (MoM: 2.21%).
Focusing on core inflationary movements, breakdowns indicate a 1.32% MoM increase in the core basket buoyed by increases in prices of miscellaneous services related to dwelling, solid fuels, clothing materials, spirits, lubricants, and personal transport.
Also, despite moderation in prices of some known energy components (PMS (-0.3% MoM), Kerosene (-14.2% MoM) and Diesel (-5.4% MoM)), pressures from other sources (e.g. solid energy) drove energy inflation higher to 1.4% MoM.
The foregoing combined with the pressures on miscellaneous services front drove core inflation higher in the review month.
Overall, despite core inflationary pressures suggested by the MoM readings, the impact of high base remained evident on YoY numbers as increases in PMS (+10% YoY), kerosene (+54% YoY), and diesel (+60% YoY) in March failed to stall YoY core deceleration.
In line with the trend recorded over the prior months, MoM food inflation increased sharply by 2.2% (vs. February reading of 1.99%) despite naira gains at the parallel market in March.
According to FEWSNET, pressures on Nigeria’s farm produce prices persisted despite recent gains in foreign reserve (+0.4% to $30.4 billion) and direct government intervention due to structural challenges, restriction on use of forex reserve for food imports as well as higher transactions and transportation cost (March transport inflation: +1.2% MoM, +15% YoY) in the review period.
Specifically, while government’s interventions—including Anchor Borrowers programme—slightly increased areas cultivated, initiatives to curb transport challenges (i.e. grain by rail) were yet to kick-in to stem the major transport setback in the review month.
Importantly, MoM transportation inflation have steadily increased in the last three months, with the March reading (1.2% MoM) printing at the highest level since July 2016, following price hikes by major transport associations across the country in response to the sharp jump in Diesel prices in December.
For context, we note that the cost of transportation between assembly markets in North Central and other Northwest states of Nigeria, particularly to Dawanau market in Kano, increased by about 70% compared to last year.
Going forward, we expect impact of high base effect to continue to dictate core inflation and overall headline trajectory despite concerns on the food inflation front. Precisely, high base effect from the 45% and 68% increases in electricity and PMS prices in 2016 should leave YoY core reading subdued with recent gains in PMS, kerosene, and diesel prices leaving sizable scope for sustained decelerations.
However, we are less sanguine on the food side of things over the near term owing to recent pressures from higher transactions and transportation costs.
That said, the more recent retrace in diesel prices suggests that pressures from the transport front would be less impacting in coming reading. In addition to this, the incentive of higher prices and FG’s continued push on the Anchor Borrowers Program front are notable signposts of gradual near and medium term gains relating to domestic food availability respectively.
On the former, we expect farmers to sustain their ramp up of output in April offseason harvest as higher prices continue to provide the needed incentive.
Thus, with lagged impact of naira gains at the parallel market also raising scope for temperance in demand pressures from neighbouring West Africa, pressures on food inflation should be relatively contained in the coming reading compared to that of the prior month.
On balance, we expect moderation in core inflation to offset pressures from food inflation.
Against this backdrop, we now look for headline reading of 16.7% YoY for April with 2017 mean now printing at 15.4% YoY (2016: 15.6% YoY).
In terms of market impact, elevated MoM inflation reading provide another justification for CBN to leave its hawkish monetary policy intact over the near term.
That said, given the impact of contractionary monetary policy on FG’s borrowing cost with April 2017 subscription (N111 billion) significantly below amount on offer (N135 billion), we think pressures from the fiscal authorities could compel some form of monetary easing over H2 17.
Source: www.armsecurities.com.ng.
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By Adedapo Adesanya
President Bola Tinubu on Tuesday asked the Senate to screen and confirm Mr Taiwo Oyedele as the Minister of State for Finance, to replace Mrs Doris Uzoka-Anite.
The President made the request through a letter read on the floor of the Senate by the Senate President, Mr Godswill Akpabio, after a three-week recess for the budget defence exercise.
The request was subsequently referred to the Committee of the Whole for further legislative consideration.
President Tinubu also sought the confirmation of Mr Magnus Abe as Chairman of the Nigeria Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC), alongside two commissioner nominees.
The Senate President also read another letter from the President seeking confirmation of Mr Mainasara Illo as Chief Executive Officer (CEO) of the Nigeria Anti-Doping Centre. The nomination was referred to the Senate committees on Narcotics and Drugs and Sports for joint screening.
Another letter from Mr Tinubu sought confirmation of Mr Francis Ifeanyi Asogwa as a commissioner representing the South-East in a federal commission. The nomination was referred to the Senate Committee on Judiciary, Human Rights, and Legal Matters for screening.
The Senate also received requests from the President to confirm two nominees as commissioners of the Revenue Mobilisation Allocation and Fiscal Commission: Mrs Amina Gamawa from Bauchi State and Mr Abdullahi Murktar from Kaduna State.
All nominations have been referred to the relevant committees for further legislative action and screening.
The nomination of the former fiscal policy partner and Africa tax leader at PriceWaterhouseCoopers (PwC) as minister was announced in a statement by presidential spokesperson, Mr Bayo Onanuga, last week.
Mrs Uzoka-Anite will now move to the Ministry of Budget and National Planning, as the Minister of State, her third portfolio in the administration, the presidential spokesman added.
The 50-year-old is a public policy expert, an accountant, and an economist.
He attended Yaba College of Technology and bagged a Higher National Diploma (HND) in accountancy and finance.
Mr Oyedele also earned a BSc in applied accounting from Oxford Brookes University.
The Senate also received the 2026 statutory budget of the Federal Capital Territory Administration (FCTA) from President Tinubu for consideration and approval.
By Aduragbemi Omiyale
The board of Beta Glass Plc has been reorganised, with the addition of four new executives, who will help to drive the company’s next phase of innovation and growth.
In a statement, Beta Glass announced the appointments of four non-executive directors, who are Mr Nitin Kaul, Ms Olusola Carrena, Mr Bolaji Olatunbosun Osunsanya, and Mr Boye Olusanya.
They are replacing the departing Mr Emmanouil Metaxakis, Mr Vassilis Kararizos, Mr Serge Joris, and Mr Gagik Apkarian from the board.
Their appointments, however, are subject to the ratification of the shareholders of the organisation at the next Annual General Meeting (AGM) on June 26, 2026.
Mr Kaul brings to the team over 25 years of global experience in strategy, mergers and acquisitions, restructuring, and business transformation across developed and emerging markets. He is a Partner, Portfolio Operations and member of the Executive Committee at Helios Investment Partners. Prior to joining Helios, he co-founded a boutique advisory firm focused on M&A and operational improvement for private businesses. He previously served as President of diversified industrial and aftermarket businesses at Gates Corporation, where he
was part of the executive team that led its sale to Blackstone in 2014. Earlier in his career, he held senior leadership roles at Tomkins and began his professional journey at Arthur Andersen. He currently serves on the boards of several companies across emerging markets.
As for Ms Carrena, she is a highly respected financial services leader with over 23 years of experience across investment banking, private equity, and corporate finance in Africa. She serves as Managing Director (Nigeria) on the Investment Team at Helios Investment Partners, where she oversees deal origination, execution, exits, and portfolio management across sectors. Before this, she spent a decade at Stanbic IBTC Capital Limited, rising to Executive Director and Head of Corporate Finance. During her tenure, she led and closed over 30 transactions valued at more than $4 billion across diverse industries, including oil and gas, FMCG, financial services, infrastructure, and healthcare. A CFA Charterholder, she holds a Master’s degree from the University of Alberta and a First-Class degree from the University of Lagos.
For Mr Osunsanya, he is an accomplished CEO, investor, and governance leader with more than 35 years of experience spanning energy, finance, and infrastructure. He previously served as Group CEO of Axxela Ltd., where he led strategic restructuring and significant value growth initiatives. Earlier, he held executive leadership roles at Oando PLC and Access Bank Plc, contributing to business transformation, governance strengthening, and sustainable expansion. He has served on the boards of several publicly listed and private companies, providing oversight in areas of strategy, audit, risk, and corporate governance, and remains an influential voice in Nigeria’s energy and financial sectors.
On the part of Mr Olusanya, he is a transformative business leader with over three decades of cross-industry experience spanning engineering, telecommunications, manufacturing, and agribusiness. He currently serves as chief executive of Flour Mills of Nigeria Plc, where he is leading a strategic transformation agenda focused on value chain integration, sustainability, and digital innovation. He previously served as Chief Executive Officer of 9mobile and as Chief Transformation Officer at Dangote Industries Limited, driving enterprise-wide restructuring and operational efficiency programs. He also served as Group Operating Partner at Helios Investment Partners, overseeing performance optimisation across portfolio companies. In addition, he is Vice Chairman of the Nigerian Economic Summit Group, contributing to national economic policy dialogue and private-sector development.
By Adedapo Adesanya
Dangote Petroleum Refinery has reduced its ex-depot prices for Premium Motor Spirit (PMS) and Automotive Gas Oil (AGO), marking the first downward adjustment after several sharp increases recorded in recent days.
According to the refinery’s latest pricing template released on March 10, 2026, the gantry price of petrol has been cut by N100 to N1,075 per litre, down from N1,175 per litre previously.
The 650,000 barrels per day capacity refinery also disclosed that PMS supplied through coastal distribution will now sell at N1,050 per litre, reflecting a marginal price differential for marine deliveries.
In addition, the gantry price of AGO, commonly known as diesel, has been reduced to N1,430 per litre, representing a N190 drop from the earlier price of N1,620 per litre.
The company noted that the quoted gantry prices exclude statutory charges imposed by the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA).
The price adjustment came amid a recent decline in global crude oil prices, which has started to ease cost pressures across the international petroleum market and is influencing pricing trends in the downstream sector.
US President Donald Trump reassured markets and claimed the war would end soon, but Iran on Tuesday vowed not to let “a litre” of oil be exported from the Middle East until the United States and Israel stop bombing it.
Brent crude price, which hit a high of $109 per barrel, has now dropped to $90 per barrel, as the largest oil producers in the Middle East Gulf have deepened production cuts and are already lowering output by a combined more than 5 million barrels per day, as the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has started to affect upstream production.
However, there are worries that, unlike the speed at which petrol stations hiked their cost at the pump, the revised ex-depot prices will not reflect through depot channels and translate into lower retail pump prices nationwide.
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