Economy

Base Effects Dictate Inflation Trajectory

Published

9 years ago

20/04/2017

By ARM Securities

Nigeria’s headline inflation decelerated for the second consecutive month (-50bps) to 17.3% in March – though lagging the scale of moderation in prior month’s reading (-92bps).

Instructively, the reading was significantly behind Bloomberg consensus estimate of 16.7% as changes in food inflation (-10bps to 18.4% YoY) failed to keep pace with expected impact of naira gains at the parallel market in the review month.

That said, high base effect from 2016 electricity and PMS price hikes saw core inflation decelerate a further 60bps to 15.4% to dictate overall YoY headline trajectory. On a MoM basis, headline inflation increased by 1.72% (vs. 1.49% in prior month’s reading) largely reflecting unyielding food pressures (MoM: 2.21%).

Focusing on core inflationary movements, breakdowns indicate a 1.32% MoM increase in the core basket buoyed by increases in prices of miscellaneous services related to dwelling, solid fuels, clothing materials, spirits, lubricants, and personal transport.

Also, despite moderation in prices of some known energy components (PMS (-0.3% MoM), Kerosene (-14.2% MoM) and Diesel (-5.4% MoM)), pressures from other sources (e.g. solid energy) drove energy inflation higher to 1.4% MoM.

The foregoing combined with the pressures on miscellaneous services front drove core inflation higher in the review month.

Overall, despite core inflationary pressures suggested by the MoM readings, the impact of high base remained evident on YoY numbers as increases in PMS (+10% YoY), kerosene (+54% YoY), and diesel (+60% YoY) in March failed to stall YoY core deceleration.

In line with the trend recorded over the prior months, MoM food inflation increased sharply by 2.2% (vs. February reading of 1.99%) despite naira gains at the parallel market in March.

According to FEWSNET, pressures on Nigeria’s farm produce prices persisted despite recent gains in foreign reserve (+0.4% to $30.4 billion) and direct government intervention due to structural challenges, restriction on use of forex reserve for food imports as well as higher transactions and transportation cost (March transport inflation: +1.2% MoM, +15% YoY) in the review period.

Specifically, while government’s interventions—including Anchor Borrowers programme—slightly increased areas cultivated, initiatives to curb transport challenges (i.e. grain by rail) were yet to kick-in to stem the major transport setback in the review month.

Importantly, MoM transportation inflation have steadily increased in the last three months, with the March reading (1.2% MoM) printing at the highest level since July 2016, following price hikes by major transport associations across the country in response to the sharp jump in Diesel prices in December.

For context, we note that the cost of transportation between assembly markets in North Central and other Northwest states of Nigeria, particularly to Dawanau market in Kano, increased by about 70% compared to last year.

Going forward, we expect impact of high base effect to continue to dictate core inflation and overall headline trajectory despite concerns on the food inflation front. Precisely, high base effect from the 45% and 68% increases in electricity and PMS prices in 2016 should leave YoY core reading subdued with recent gains in PMS, kerosene, and diesel prices leaving sizable scope for sustained decelerations.

However, we are less sanguine on the food side of things over the near term owing to recent pressures from higher transactions and transportation costs.

That said, the more recent retrace in diesel prices suggests that pressures from the transport front would be less impacting in coming reading. In addition to this, the incentive of higher prices and FG’s continued push on the Anchor Borrowers Program front are notable signposts of gradual near and medium term gains relating to domestic food availability respectively.

On the former, we expect farmers to sustain their ramp up of output in April offseason harvest as higher prices continue to provide the needed incentive.

Thus, with lagged impact of naira gains at the parallel market also raising scope for temperance in demand pressures from neighbouring West Africa, pressures on food inflation should be relatively contained in the coming reading compared to that of the prior month.

On balance, we expect moderation in core inflation to offset pressures from food inflation.

Against this backdrop, we now look for headline reading of 16.7% YoY for April with 2017 mean now printing at 15.4% YoY (2016: 15.6% YoY).

In terms of market impact, elevated MoM inflation reading provide another justification for CBN to leave its hawkish monetary policy intact over the near term.

That said, given the impact of contractionary monetary policy on FG’s borrowing cost with April 2017 subscription (N111 billion) significantly below amount on offer (N135 billion), we think pressures from the fiscal authorities could compel some form of monetary easing over H2 17.

Source: www.armsecurities.com.ng.

Economy

NGX RegCo Delists ASO Savings from Stock Exchange

Published

3 hours ago

16/01/2026

Dipo Olowookere

By Dipo Olowookere

ASO Savings and Loans Plc has been delisted from the daily official list of the Nigerian Exchange (NGX) Limited.

This action followed the revocation of the operating licence of the company by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) in December 2025.

In a circular on behalf of the NGX Regulation (NGX RegCo) by Ugochi Eke, it was disclosed that the effective date of the delisting is today, Friday, January 16, 2026.

Already, the company has been notified of this development, according to the notice obtained by Business Post.

Before ASO Savings lost its operating licence, it had failed to meet some post-listing requirements, a part of the disclosure from the NGX RegCo stated.

“The board of NGX Regulation Limited via its decision dated January 1, 2026, approved that the step below should be taken pursuant to the process for regulatory delisting of issuers.

“The board has approved the delisting of ASO Savings and Loans Plc from the Nigerian Exchange Limited’s daily official list effective January 16, 2026.

“ASO Savings is hereby notified of this enforcement action and is advised to direct any communication in respect of the foregoing to [email protected].

“NGX RegCo was engaging the listed entity, concerning its outstanding post-listing obligations. However, due to the revocation of the operating license of ASO Savings by its primary regulator, the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) effective December 16, 2025; NGX RegCo will delist the entity from the daily official list effective January 16, 2026.

“In view of the foregoing, NGX RegCo has proceeded with publishing the name of the Company in the national dailies.

“The company has been duly notified of this enforcement action, and this publication serves as notification to the investing public, particularly shareholders of the company and investors in the Nigerian capital market,” the statement read.

Economy

Lokpobiri Warns Oil License Bidders Against Hoarding

Published

4 hours ago

16/01/2026

Adedapo Adesanya

By Adedapo Adesanya

The Minister of State for Petroleum Resources (Oil), Mr Heineken Lokpobiri, has issued a stern warning to oil and gas investors that petroleum licences in Nigeria are strictly for active development, not asset hoarding or speculative holding, declaring that operators must drill or risk losing their rights.

He made this admonition while delivering his message at the 2025 Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) Licensing Bid Round Conference in Lagos, where he outlined the government’s hardline stance on asset utilisation and investor accountability.

“The oil assets in portfolio are not mere symbols or souvenirs,” Mr Lokpobiri said, adding that, “Holders of licences are obligated to drill, drill and drill for a shared benefit for the Government, Nigerians and the operators.”

He stressed that the administration is determined to ensure petroleum assets are translated into tangible economic value, noting that licences are time-bound rights granted solely for productive use.

“These assets belong to the Federal Government, and licences are granted strictly for a defined period for productive use, not passive ownership,” the minister said. “Our licensing framework is designed to eliminate speculation and ensure that only serious, capable investors participate.”

Mr Lokpobiri also issued a strong caution to bidders seeking to participate in the 2025 licensing round, urging them to fully understand the process and obligations before submitting bids.

“As prospects take part in this bid round, a clear understanding of the modus operandi guiding the process is essential,” he said, recalling previous bid rounds where some winners attempted to reverse their commitments.

“Past experiences have shown instances where some winning bidders sought refunds based on unmet expectations or perceived asset limitations,” Lokpobiri stated. “Such actions are untenable, as there is no provision in law for the refund of a bid already won.”

According to him, the conference was convened to remove ambiguity and protect the integrity of the licensing system, stressing that the government would strictly enforce all contractual obligations arising from the process.

“This conference serves to provide clarity upfront,” he said. “Participants must be fully informed, deliberate and committed, as the Government will uphold the sanctity of the process and enforce all obligations.”

The minister’s remarks reinforce the Federal Government’s broader push to accelerate upstream development, boost production and attract only technically and financially capable investors into Nigeria’s oil and gas sector, amid renewed licensing activity under the Petroleum Industry Act (PIA).

Economy

NGX Removes Embargo on Trading in Premier Paints Stocks After Four Years

Published

4 hours ago

16/01/2026

Dipo Olowookere

By Dipo Olowookere

The suspension earlier placed on Premier Paints Plc, preventing investors from buying and selling its stocks on the Nigerian Exchange (NGX) Limited, has now been lifted.

The embargo was removed on Wednesday, a notice from the stock exchange, seen by Business Post, disclosed.

Almost four years ago, Premier Paints was suspended from the bourse due to the inability of its board to file the company’s financial results.

The NGX had on July 1, 2022, informed the investing community it had prohibited the trading of the organisation’s securities “in line with the provisions of Rule 3.1: Rules for Filing of Accounts and Treatment of Default Filing (Default Filing Rules).

The part of the rules provides that: “If an Issuer fails to file the relevant accounts by the expiration of the cure period, the exchange will; a) send to the issuer a second filing deficiency notification within two business days after the end of the cure period, b) suspend trading in the issuer’s securities, and c) notify the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and the market within 24 hours of the suspension.”

In the latest disclosure dated Wednesday, January 14, 2026, and signed by the Head of Issuer Regulation Department of the NGX, Mr Godstime Iwenekhai, it was revealed that Premier Paints has now done the needful.

“The company has now filed all outstanding financial statements to Nigerian Exchange Limited.

“In view of the company’s submission of its outstanding financial statements, and pursuant to Rule 3.3 of the Default Filing Rules, which states that; The suspension of trading in the issuer’s securities shall be lifted upon submission of the relevant accounts provided The exchange is satisfied that the accounts comply with all applicable rules of the exchange. The exchange shall thereafter also announce through the medium by which the public and the SEC was initially notified of the suspension, that the suspension has been lifted, trading license holders and the investing public are hereby notified that the suspension placed on trading on the shares of Premier Paints Plc was lifted (on) Wednesday, January 14, 2026,” the circular stated.