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Economy

Brent Trades Closer to $44 on Possible Tighter Supply

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brent crude oil

By Adedapo Adesanya

Prices of crude oil further increased at the market on Tuesday as a result of the renewed confidence investors have that the deadly COVID-19 could soon be defeated due to the outcome of the vaccine trials.

This boosted the market coupled with the possibility of tighter supply policies from oil producers aimed to suppress the threats posed by the rising coronavirus cases in Europe and America.

During trading yesterday, the Brent crude moved up by 0.07 per cent or 3 cents to sell at $43.85 per barrel, while the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude appreciated by 0.22 per cent or 10 cents to trade $41.43 per barrel.

On Monday, the oil space got a boost when Moderna Inc’s announced that its coronavirus vaccine was 94.5 per cent effective. The information came some days after Pfizer Inc also said its vaccine was over 90 per cent effective.

However, developments from the United States over the average number of people dying of COVID-19 daily threatened the market just like the fresh movement restrictions in Europe.

But the market remains hopeful as Saudi Arabia called on fellow members of the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+) to be flexible in responding to oil market needs as it builds the case for a tighter production policy in 2021.

It was reported that the oil cartel is considering four possible scenarios for 2021. Two of these are based on following the initial arrangements, including a further relaxation of cuts from 7.7 million barrels per day to 5.8 million barrels per day from January.

Under these two scenarios, the drawdown in global oil stockpiles will continue, but the total will remain well above the five-year average.

In the milder pandemic effect scenario, oil inventories will be 125 million barrels higher in 2021 than the five-year average, and in the more severe pandemic effect scenario, these will be 470 million higher than the five-year average. This will translate into an excess supply of 1.9 million barrels per day.

An option gaining support among OPEC+ nations is to keep the existing cuts of 7.7 million barrels per day (bpd) for a further three to six months rather than tapering in January.

But looking at tougher production restrictions scenarios, the drawdown will be more significant: if the deal is extended by three months, until the end of March, global inventories will only end up being 73 million barrels higher than the five-year average by the end of 2021.

However, if the cuts are extended until the end of June, the total supply will be just 21 million barrels, higher than the five-year average. These figures translate into a daily supply deficit of between 900,000 barrels per day and 1.4 million barrels per day, according to analysts.

OPEC+ held a ministerial committee meeting on Tuesday that made no formal recommendation. The group will hold a full meeting on November 30 – December 1.

The market will await official figures from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) in the United States on Wednesday as analysts said crude inventories likely rose 1.7 million barrels last week after gaining 4.3 million barrels in the prior week.

Adedapo Adesanya is a journalist, polymath, and connoisseur of everything art. When he is not writing, he has his nose buried in one of the many books or articles he has bookmarked or simply listening to good music with a bottle of beer or wine. He supports the greatest club in the world, Manchester United F.C.

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Economy

NAICOM Mandates 0.25% Premium Levy for New Protection Fund

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Nigeria's insurance sector

By Adedapo Adesanya

All insurance and reinsurance companies operating in Nigeria are required to remit 0.25 per cent of their annual net premium income to a new fund, according to new guidelines by the National Insurance Commission (NAICOM).

The insurance regulator has issued binding guidelines for a new industry-wide protection fund that will compel every licensed insurer and reinsurer in the country to make annual cash contributions, or risk losing their operating licence.

NAICOM published the framework for the Insurance Policyholders’ Protection Fund (IPPF) under the authority of the Nigerian Insurance Industry Reform Act (NIIRA) 2025, which was signed into law last August.

The guidelines, which take effect immediately, did not disclose an initial capitalisation target for the fund or a timeline for when it would be considered adequately funded for resolution purposes.

The IPPF is designed to function as a resolution backstop as a capital pool available to settle outstanding policyholder claims when a licensed insurer or reinsurer becomes insolvent or enters regulatory distress.

The mechanism addresses a longstanding vulnerability in the Nigerian market, where policyholders holding valid claims against failed insurers have historically had no guaranteed recourse.

The 0.25 per cent payments are due into designated deposit money bank accounts no later than June 30 each year.

NAICOM said it will supplement industry contributions by injecting 0.25 per cent of the balance held in the existing Security and Insurance Development Fund (SIDF) into the IPPF annually, creating a dual-stream capitalisation model.

The guidelines state explicitly that failure to remit the full assessed contribution within the stipulated timeframe shall constitute grounds for suspension or cancellation of an operator’s licence. The same penalty framework applies to defaults on any loans extended from the fund.

Day-to-day management of the IPPF will be delegated to an independent professional Fund Manager, subject to a minimum paid-up capital threshold of N5 billion.

Investment activity is restricted to low-risk, government-backed instruments. This is a deliberate constraint intended to preserve liquidity and protect the fund from market volatility.

Members are bound by a Code of Conduct that bars them from using their positions for personal advantage or to direct decisions in favour of any insurer, reinsurer, or connected party.

The guidelines introduce a mandatory early-warning mechanism: insurance operators who become aware of imprudent practices within their organisations or elsewhere in the industry are required to report such conduct to NAICOM within five working days.

The commission has provided explicit anti-retaliation protections, stating that no whistleblower shall be subjected to retaliation, intimidation, or any form of adverse action for making a disclosure.

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Economy

Organised Private Sector Seeks Tinubu’s Help to Halt CETA Bill Passage

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OPS Nigeria New Excise Bill

By Modupe Gbadeyanka

President Bola Tinubu has been called on to use his influence to halt the passage of the proposed Customs, Excise and Tariff Amendment (CETA) Bill.

The proposed piece of legislation is currently before the National Assembly, and it seeks to introduce a percentage levy per litre of the retail price on non-alcoholic beverages.

In an outlined advertorial published in key newspapers, the Organised Private Sector of Nigeria urged the federal government to engage with the leadership of the parliament to stop the ongoing legislative process with a view to stepping down the CETA Bill, thus allowing the executive-led fiscal reforms to be fully integrated and aligned.

The OPS comprises the Manufacturers Association of Nigeria (MAN), Nigerian Association of Chambers of Commerce, Industry, Mines and Agriculture (NACCIMA), Nigeria Employers’ Consultative Association (NECA), Nigerian Association of Small Scale Industrialists (NASSI), and the Nigerian Association of Small and Medium Enterprises (NASME).

In the advertorial signed by the presidents of all members of the group, it was submitted that allowing for more talks would strengthen policy coherence, enhance predictability, and improve the effectiveness of the nation’s excise framework.

It was stressed that halting the bill would also encourage structured, evidence-based engagement with industry stakeholders, thereby ensuring that any future measures will effectively balance revenue generation, public health objectives, and economic sustainability.

“While we fully support well-designed fiscal reforms and evidence-based public health interventions, we are concerned that the Bill, in its current form, raises significant social, economic, administrative, and legal issues that could undermine Your Excellency’s broader fiscal reform objectives,” the body stated.

While calling on the government to restrain the Senate from proceeding with the process, the organisation noted that the proposed levy would therefore constitute a regressive measure, reducing consumer purchasing power without providing viable alternatives or meaningful public health support.

Commenting on the impact of such a levy on industry stability, investment, and employment, OPS stated that the sector was already under severe pressure from exchange rate adjustments, high energy costs, and rising prices of imported inputs, packaging materials, and machinery.

“An additional excise burden would further increase production costs, reduce capacity utilisation, delay or cancel planned investments, and threaten the livelihoods of thousands of small distributors, retailers, and informal traders who depend on high-volume, low-margin sales.

“These pressures would inevitably be passed on to consumers through higher prices, leading to reduced demand and potential further job losses across the value chain,” it stated.

While commending the president for the leadership and bold economic reforms undertaken since assuming office in 2023, it noted that the reforms have played an important role in restoring macroeconomic stability and rebuilding confidence within the business community.

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Economy

CSCS, Afriland Properties, MRS Oil Weaken NASD Exchange by 1.12%

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CSCS Stocks

By Adedapo Adesanya

Three stocks further weakened the NASD Over-the-Counter (OTC) Securities Exchange by 1.12 per cent on Wednesday, April 8, with the Unlisted Security Index (NSI) down by 44.43 points to 3,930.91 points from the previous day’s 3,975.34 points, and the market capitalisation went down by N26.59 to N2.351 trillion from N2.378 trillion.

MRS Oil lost N11.00 during the session to close at N161.00 per share compared with Tuesday’s closing price of N172.00 per share, Central Securities Clearing System (CSCS) Plc dipped by N3.74 to N67.95 per unit from N71.69 per unit, and Afriland Properties Plc fell by N1.10 to sell at N15.95 per share versus N17.05 per share.

There were two gainers at the midweek trading session, led by IPWA Plc, which appreciated by 55 Kobo to N6.61 per unit from N6.06 per unit, and First Trust Mortgage Bank Plc improved its value by 4 Kobo to N2.32 per share from N2.28 per share.

Yesterday, the volume of securities rose by 620.4 per cent to 5.7 million units from 797,264 units, the value of securities increased by 25.1 per cent to N32.7 million from N26.1 million, and the number of deals climbed by 12.1 per cent to 37 deals from the preceding session’s 33 deals.

Great Nigeria Insurance (GNI) Plc ended the day as the most traded stock by value on a year-to-date basis with 3.4 billion units sold for N8.4 billion, trailed by CSCS Plc with 57.2 million units exchanged for N3.9 billion, and Okitipupa Plc with 27.5 million units traded for N1.8 billion.

GNI Plc also finished the session as the most traded stock by volume on a year-to-date basis with 3.4 billion units valued at N8.4 billion, followed by Resourcery Plc with 1.1 billion units worth N415.7 million, and Infrastructure Guarantee Credit Plc with 400 million units transacted for N1.2 billion.

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