Economy
Business Confidence in Nigeria Falls in February Amid Rise in Input Costs
By Modupe Gbadeyanka
Business conditions in Nigeria slowed to 51.0 in February 2024 from 54.5 in January 2024, as price pressures intensified in the private sector at an unprecedented pace in over a decade of data collection, the Stanbic IBTC Bank Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) has revealed.
A statement from the lender disclosed that the improvement in business conditions was the weakest since the recovery in the private sector began last December.
It stated that input costs surged higher in the period under consideration as a result of higher fuel prices and exchange rate weakness, which drove up material costs.
The latest rise in overall input costs was by far the sharpest since the survey began in January 2014, with around 78 per cent of respondents signalling an increase over the month.
It was observed that both input costs and output prices increased at the sharpest rates on record, with rising prices impacting demand. As a result, rates of expansion in output and new orders slowed sharply over the month, while employment decreased for the first time in 10 months, as business confidence dropped to the lowest on record.
The report stated that output price inflation also hit a fresh record high in February as firms passed through rising input costs to their customers.
Steep price pressures acted to limit new orders in the private sector. Although new business increased for the third successive month amid some positive signs of underlying demand, the rate of expansion slowed sharply and was the weakest in this sequence.
This was also the case with business activity, which increased only slightly, as rising activity in the agriculture and services sectors contrasted with falls in manufacturing and wholesale & retail.
Signs of weakness in the private sector led companies to lower their staffing levels for the first time in ten months, albeit marginally.
Purchasing activity was also scaled back following a marked expansion in the previous survey period. Firms were able to keep on top of workloads, however, and reduced outstanding business for the first time in three months.
A desire to be able to respond to new orders promptly meant that companies continued to increase their inventories. Meanwhile, suppliers’ delivery times shortened again.
Unprecedented inflationary pressures amid currency weakness and signs of demand softening meant that business confidence dropped to the lowest on record in February.
Firms remained optimistic regarding the year-ahead outlook for activity, however, often reflecting business expansion plans and hopes for an improvement in economic conditions.
“Stanbic IBTC Bank headline PMI slowed to its weakest level since December 23, moderating remarkably to 51.0 in February from 54.5 in January.
“Employment level dropped below the 50.0 no-change mark for the first time in 10 months while the output and new order’s expansion both weakened significantly in the month.
“These weaknesses were in line with the sharp local currency depreciation, increase in fuel prices, and rapidly rising food costs in February, thereby driving overall cost pressures in the month.
“These lingering pressures may push domestic demand low, limiting growth potentials in Q1 of 24,” the Head of Equity Research for West Africa at Stanbic IBTC Bank, Mr Muyiwa Oni, said.
By Adedapo Adesanya
Afriland Properties Plc helped the NASD Over-the-Counter (OTC) Securities Exchange record a 0.04 per cent gain on Tuesday, December 10 as the share price of the property investment rose by 34 Kobo to N16.94 per unit from the preceding day’s N16.60 per unit.
As a result of this, the market capitalisation of the bourse went up by N380 million to remain relatively unchanged at N1.056 trillion like the previous trading day.
But the NASD Unlisted Security Index (NSI) closed higher at 3,014.36 points after it recorded an addition of 1.09 points to Monday’s closing value of 3,013.27 points.
The NASD OTC securities exchange recorded a price loser and it was Geo-Fluids Plc, which went down by 2 Kobo to close at N3.93 per share, in contrast to the preceding day’s N3.95 per share.
During the trading session, the volume of securities bought and sold by investors increased by 95.8 per cent to 2.4 million units from the 1.2 million securities traded in the preceding session.
However, the value of shares traded yesterday slumped by 3.7 per cent to N4.9 million from the N5.07 million recorded a day earlier, as the number of deals surged by 27.3 per cent to 14 deals from 11 deals.
Geo-Fluids Plc remained the most active stock by volume (year-to-date) with 1.7 billion units sold for N3.9 billion, trailed by Okitipupa Plc with 752.2 million units valued at N7.8 billion, and Afriland Properties Plc with 297.5 million units worth N5.3 million.
Also, Aradel Holdings Plc remained the most active stock by value (year-to-date) with 108.7 million units worth N89.2 billion, followed by Okitipupa Plc with 752.2 million units valued at N7.8 billion, and Afriland Properties Plc with 297.5 million units sold for N5.3 billion.
By Adedapo Adesanya
The Naira continued to appreciate on the US Dollar at the Nigerian Autonomous Foreign Exchange Market (NAFEM), gaining 0.7 per cent or N10.23 on Tuesday, December 10 to trade at N1,542.27/$1 compared with the preceding day’s N1,552.50/$1.
The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN)-backed Electronic Foreign Exchange Matching System (EFEMS) platform introduced to tackle speculation and improve transparency in Nigeria’s FX market has been attributed as the source of the Naira’s appreciation.
Speculators holding foreign currencies, particularly the US Dollar, have seen the value of their money drastically drop due to the appreciation of the local currency. This is forcing them to dump greenback into the system and take the domestic currency alternative- a move that has seen available FX increase.
Equally, the domestic currency improved its value against the Pound Sterling in the official market during the trading day by N6.81 to sell for N1,955.12/£1 compared with Monday’s closing price of N1,961.93/£1 and against the Euro, it gained N10.84 to close at N1,613.00/€1, in contrast to the previous day’s rate of N1,623.84/€1.
Data from the FMDQ Securities Exchange showed that the value of forex transactions significantly increased yesterday by $228.85 million or 257.2 per cent to $401.17 million from the preceding session’s $112.32 million.
However, in the parallel market, the Nigerian currency weakened against the US Dollar on Tuesday by N5 to settle at N1,625/$1 compared with the previous day’s value of N1,620/$1.
In the cryptocurrency market, Dogecoin (DOGE) lost 4.8 per cent to sell at $0.39116, Litecoin (LTC) depreciated by 3.3 per cent to trade at $110.25, Binance Coin (BNB) went south by 2.3 per cent to $681.44, Ethereum (ETH) dropped 1.6 per cent to finish at $3,671.08, and Cardano (ADA) slid by 0.5 per cent to $0.8837
Conversely, Ripple (XRP) jumped by 5.4 per cent to $2.23 amid a continued shift for the coin with its parent company seeing the benefits of a crypto-friendly regulatory environment for US-based companies.
XRP is closely related to Ripple Labs, a high-profile payments company targeted by the SEC in 2020 on allegations of selling the token as a security to U.S. investors. Ripple fully cleared a long-drawn court case in 2024.
Further, Solana (SOL) expanded by 0.8 per cent to $219.75, Bitcoin (BTC) grew by 0.4 per cent to $97,446.95, while the US Dollar Tether (USDT) and the US Dollar Coin (USDC) remained unchanged at $1.00 each.
By Adedapo Adesanya
Oil prices rose on Tuesday, influenced by increasing demand in China, the world’s largest buyer, as well as developments in Europe and Syria, with Brent crude futures closing at $72.19 per barrel after chalking up 5 cents or 0.07 per cent while the US West Texas Intermediate finished at $68.59 a barrel after it gained 22 cents or 0.32 per cent.
China will adopt an “appropriately loose” monetary policy in 2025 as the world’s largest oil importer tries to spur economic growth. This would be the first easing of its stance in 14 years.
Chinese crude imports also grew annually for the first time in seven months, jumping in November on a year-on-year basis.
Speculation about winter demand in Europe also contributed to the rise in prices as the period has been known for high demand.
In Syria, rebels were working to form a government and restore order after the ousting of President Bashar al-Assad, with the country’s banks and oil sector set to resume work on Tuesday.
Although Syria itself is not a major oil producer, it is strategically located and has strong ties with Russia and Iran – two of the world’s largest oil producers.
Market analysts noted that the tensions in the Middle East seem contained, which led market participants to price for potentially low risks of a wider regional spillover leading to significant oil supply disruption.
The market is also looking forward to the US Federal Reserve, which is expected to make a 25 basis point cut to interest rates at the end of its December 17-18 meeting.
This move could improve oil demand in the world’s biggest economy, though traders are waiting to see if this week’s inflation data derails the cut.
Crude oil inventories in the US rose by 499,000 barrels for the week ending November 29, according to The American Petroleum Institute (API). Analysts had expected a draw of 1.30 million barrels.
For the week prior, the API reported a 1.232-million barrel build in crude inventories.
So far this year, crude oil inventories have fallen by roughly 3.4 million barrels since the beginning of the year, according to API data.
Official data from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) will be released later on Wednesday.
Also, the market is getting relief from the recent decision of selected members of the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies, OPEC+ to delay the rollback of 2.2 million barrels per day of oil production cuts to April from January. Another 3.6 million barrels per day in output reductions across the OPEC+ group has been extended to the end of 2026 from the end of 2025.
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