Economy
Business, Consumer Expectations Improve in Nigeria
By FSDH Research
The Business Expectations Survey (BES) and the Consumer Expectations Survey (CES) Reports that the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) published for Q2, 2017 show that confidence of both the firms and consumers about the Q3, 2017 and the next 12 months has improved.
The BES shows that the respondents’ overall confidence index on the macro-economy in Q2, 2017 was less pessimistic when compared with the level recorded in Q1, 2016.
The major drivers of the improved optimism in Q2, 2017 were services, wholesale/retail trade, industrial and construction sectors. The respondent firms identified the following as major business constraints: insufficient power supply, financial problem, high interest rate, unfavourable economic climate, competition, unclear economic laws, and unfavourable political climate.
Most of the surveyed firms expect the value of the Naira to appreciate against the US Dollar in the next two quarters. The report also shows that businesses with expansion plans are in the following sectors: wholesale/retail trade, services, construction and industrial.
The BES added that respondent firms expect inflation rate and interest rate to moderate in the next two quarters.
The CES shows that the respondents’ overall confidence outlook moderated in Q2, 2017.
According to the survey, some respondents attributed the improved outlook to the increased confidence in the economy. Despite the improved confidence the overall outlook was negative, majority of the respondents ascribed this development to a decline in their net income leading to draw-down on savings/getting into debt.
The consumer outlook for the next quarter and that of the next 12 months were positive. The outlook is attributed to the anticipated improvement in the Nigerian economic conditions, expected increase in net household income and expectation to save in the next 12 months.
On the expectation of consumer expenditure, the survey says more households across the country expect some increase in their expenditure on basic commodities and services in the next 12 months. Most consumers expect to spend a substantial amount of their income on food and other household needs, education, savings, purchase of consumer durables, medical expenses and investment.
Nevertheless, they do not plan to spend on large ticket items such as purchase of car/motor vehicle and house.
Most surveyed consumers expect the prices of goods and services to increase in the next 12 months. The major drivers are: house rent, education, medical care, transport and electricity. On the consumer buying outlook, consumers believe Q2, 2017 was not the ideal time to buy consumer durables like motor vehicle and house.
It also added that the next 12 months are not the best time to buy items such as furniture, gas cooker, refrigerator, air conditioners, television and other durables. However the next 12 months seem to be an ideal time to buy big-ticket items like motor vehicles and house.
Although consumers expect inflation rate to rise in the next 12 months, they expect exchange rate to appreciate and interest rate (borrowing rate) to drop.
We note that there are still some challenges in the economy that need to be addressed.
However, our review of the Nigerian economy shows that the worst performance may be over. Thus the economy is ready for a recovery. We are of the view that inflation rate will decline for the rest of the year 2017 (but still in double digits).
We also expect the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the CBN to adopt a more accommodating monetary policy stance when there is sustainable stability in the foreign exchange rate and inflation expectation is properly anchored within the level that is not growth retarding. Such a change in the monetary policy stance will lead to a drop in the interest rates (both deposit and lending) and yields on the fixed income securities.
The Federal Government of Nigeria (FGN) needs to address the challenges in the power sector in order to reduce firms’ operating cost and increase the spendable and investible income of consumers. Other areas that need attention in order to improve business and consumer confidence are the political and policy uncertainties in the country.
By Dipo Olowookere
The bulls regained control of the Nigerian Exchange (NGX) Limited on Friday after surrendering power to the bears a day earlier as a result of mild selling pressure.
Yesterday, the Nigerian bourse rebounded by 0.54 per cent, mainly due to the gains recorded by First Holdco and others.
Data harvested by Business Post indicated that the industrial goods and energy sectors were flat, while the banking index chalked up 3.13 per cent. The insurance space expanded by 1.08 per cent, and the consumer goods counter rose by 0.21 per cent.
Consequently, the All-Share Index (ASI) went up by 1,316.52 points to 243,462.13 points from 242,145.61 points, and the market capitalisation grew by N850 billion to N157.057 trillion from N156.207 trillion.
The market breadth index was bullish during the last trading session of this week, printing 31 appreciating stocks and 23 depreciating stocks, representing strong investor sentiment.
First Holdco led the advancers’ log after it climbed 9.97 per cent to N95.95, Haldane McCall appreciated by 9.94 per cent to N3.65, LivingTrust Mortgage Bank soared by 9.73 per cent to N3.72, LASACO Assurance jumped by 5.26 per cent to N2.00, and Thomas Wyatt gained 5.10 per cent to quote at N3.09.
On the flip side, Red Star Express declined by 9.50 per cent to N20.00, Omatek slipped by 6.08 per cent to N1.70, C&I Leasing shrank by 5.93 per cent to N5.55, Jaiz Bank crashed by 5.03 per cent to N8.50, and Livestock Feed fell by 3.89 per cent to N8.65.
As for the activity chart, market participants bought and sold 685.9 million equities for N42.7 billion in 44,134 deals on Friday versus the 498.5 million equities worth N34.9 billion traded in 39,484 deals on Thursday, implying a rise in the trading volume, value, and number of deals by 37.59 per cent, 22.35 per cent, and 11.78 per cent, respectively.
Investors’ darling for the day was First Holdco, with a turnover of 225.9 billion units valued at N21.0 billion, Guinea Insurance sold 53.4 million units for N45.2 million, Zenith Bank traded 41.5 million units worth N4.7 billion, Access Holdings exchanged 29.1 million units valued at N720.6 million, and UBA exchanged 27.5 million units for N1.2 billion.
By Modupe Gbadeyanka
The Africa Association of Professional Freight Forwarders and Logistics of Nigeria (APFFLON) has appealed to the Nigeria Customs Service (NCS) to deepen its sensitisation on the newly introduced Green Tax Surcharge Policy.
The chairman of APFFLON, Mr Akeem Ayobiojo, made this plea on behalf of his colleagues on Tuesday, July 14, 2026, at the Customs House in Abuja, during a stakeholders’ engagement with the agency.
He also called for improvements in the administration of Pre-Arrival Assessment Reports and Post Clearance Audit and the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA).
Mr Ayobiojo stated that freight forwarders were happy to work with the customs, commending the organisation for implementing Chapter 99, describing it as a major relief for manufacturers.
He, however, emphasised that a deeper understanding of the new tax was necessary for his members, saying more predictable procedures would reduce delays and unexpected costs for importers and freight forwarders.
In his remarks, the Comptroller-General of Customs, Mr Adewale Adeniyi, assured manufacturers, freight forwarders and other players in the nation’s trade sector that the NCS would continue to engage them on fiscal policies affecting their businesses, saying sustained dialogue remains key to resolving implementation challenges and improving the country’s trading environment.
He also promised them the service’s resolve to enhance and facilitate trade, acknowledging that, “Your feedback is important because it helps us understand what is happening in the field, and where necessary, we will take your concerns to the Federal Ministry of Finance and other relevant government institutions.”
Speaking about Authorised Economic Operator (AEO), Mr Adeniyi further explained that Nigeria would not lower the standards required under the Authorised Economic Operator Programme as the initiative is guided by global benchmarks established by the World Customs Organisation (WCO).
On her part, the Deputy Comptroller-General of Customs for Tariff and Trade, Ms Caroline Niagwan, clarified that electric vehicles can be imported without payment of duty only by holders of Import Duty Exemption Certificate (IDEC) issued by the Federal Ministry of Finance.
She also urged importers facing classification disputes to take advantage of the Advance Ruling system, noting, “Once an Advance Ruling is issued based on genuine documentation, importers have certainty on classification, valuation or origin before the goods arrive, thereby reducing unnecessary disputes during clearance.”
By Adedapo Adesanya
The Naira appreciated against the US Dollar in the Nigerian Autonomous Foreign Exchange Market (NAFEX) on Friday, July 17, by N1.35 or 0.07 per cent to N1,380.18/$1 from N1,381.53/$1.
It also improved its value against the Pound Sterling in the same market segment during the session by N11.75 to trade at N1,854.42/£1 compared with the previous day’s N1,866.17/£1, and gained N5.69 against the Euro to sell at N1,576.99/€1 versus Thursday’s closing price of N1,582.68/€1.
In the same vein, the Naira chalked up N1 against the United States currency yesterday at the GTBank forex desk to quote at N1,388/$1, in contrast to the preceding day’s N1,389/$1, but closed flat at the black market at N1,405/$1.
The appreciation of the Nigerian currency on Friday came amid fresh signals that Nigeria is building its external reserves for protection against shocks and excessive currency volatility.
The Governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), Mr Yemi Cardoso, said the country’s gross reserves had risen above approximately $52 billion by 15 July, while net reserves had increased from about $3 billion when the current CBN leadership took office to more than $40 billion.
Mr Cardoso linked the increase in reserves to reforms that had restored greater confidence in the foreign exchange system. He also pointed to efforts to diversify foreign currency inflows, including policies designed to increase remittances through official channels.
He noted that monthly diaspora remittances had risen above $600 million and the CBN expected them to reach approximately $1 billion by the end of 2026. The target is part of a broader effort to grow reserves through recurring inflows rather than temporary measures.
The improvement, he argued, had strengthened Nigeria’s capacity to respond when unexpected events threatened market stability.
The apex bank has also launched a new digital platform that will track every foreign exchange transaction involving Bureau De Change (BDC) operators, marking a major step in its efforts to improve transparency and strengthen oversight of Nigeria’s retail forex market.
As for the crypto market, prices were up as markets overlooked geopolitical developments and macro forces weighing on the whole market ecosystem rather than anything crypto-specific, with Cardano (ADA) up by 4.6 per cent to $0.1661.
Bitcoin (BTC) jumped by 1.8 per cent to $63,968.32, Ethereum (ETH) improved by 0.9 per cent to $1,843.88, Dogecoin (DOGE) also rose by 0.9 per cent to $0.0723, Solana (SOL) soared by 0.6 per cent to $74.90, Ripple (XRP) also appreciated by 0.6 per cent to $1.08, and Binance Coin (BNB) advanced by 0.1 per cent to $567.32.
However, TRON (TRX) depreciated by 0.2 per cent to close at $0.3218, while the US Dollar Tether (USDT) and the US Dollar Coin (USDC) remained unchanged at $1.00 each.
