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Economy

Can Gold Mining Offer Nigeria an Unexpected Lifeline?

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By Lukman Otunuga

Can Gold stand toe-to-toe with Black Gold for Nigeria’s economy?

Geopolitical tensions have triggered explosive levels of market volatility and uncertainty. These unfavourable market conditions continue to accelerate the flight to safety with gold by roughly 6% since the start of 2022.

Amid the negative themes bombarding global sentiment, gold remains a bright spot and high upside thanks to its status as an inflation hedge.

The precious metal was trading around $1935 last week and is expected to remain volatile over the next few days amid key economic reports, the Ukraine-Russia conflict, and China lockdowns among other factors.

Gold buoyed by fundamental factors

Several factors are supporting gold prices.

Safe-haven buying triggered by fears over the Ukraine-Russia conflict has boosted the metal’s spot and futures prices. In recent events, Russian and Ukrainian negotiators are set to resume face-to-face talks in Turkey this week.

While signs of both sides finding a middle ground could boost risk sentiment, further delays or disagreements could rattle financial markets. Soaring Covid-19 cases in China have also added to the risk-off mood and overall uncertainty. With commodity prices soaring on supply-side fears, concerns over stagflation and its consequences on the global economy continue to weigh on investor confidence.

On the flipside, expectations over the Federal Reserve adopting an aggressive approach toward interest rates could hit zero yielding gold. An appreciating dollar and rising bond yields may compound the precious metal’s woes, creating obstacles for bulls down the road.

Nigeria’s Gold reserve….

Back in 2020, Nigeria refined its own reserve gold bar and paid N268 million for the 12.5kg bar to start a central bank stock. When considering the previously mentioned factors stimulating the appetite for gold, this move was a welcome development for Nigeria as it diversified away from oil reliance.

Indeed, if cultivated well, gold mining and trading possessed a frightening potential to generate more revenue than crude oil for Nigeria.

Fast forward to today, Nigeria still remains in an ongoing quest to tap the potential of the gold mining sector. Since the massive hype in 2020 which created awareness on access to the markets, it’s been a tale of uncertainty and negativity. Illegal mining activities have become a major plague in the sector, with solid minerals being smuggled out of the country – resulting in a loss of potential government revenues.

The numbers do not lie…

The underlying math’s in Nigeria’s Gold market show strong potential.

Nigeria’s Gold reserve is estimated at 200 million metric tonnes, according to the Nigeria Mining Growth Roadmap. Meanwhile, Trading Economics places Nigeria as the sixth largest country with Gold deposits in Africa, with an average of 21.37 tonnes from 2000 to 2020, reaching an all-time high of 21.46 tonnes during the first half of 2021. The nation’s current estimated gold reserves are over 200 million ounces, most of which have not been exploited.

Back in 2020, the newly-regulated gold mining sector was expected to create 250,000 new jobs and provide the Federal Government with an additional estimated annual revenue of $150 million in taxes, $25 million in royalties, and $500 million in foreign exchange reserves. It remains to be seen whether these predictions will match reality.

Should the developments in the gold mining sector improve, this could help boost investor sentiment against external risks in the form of geopolitical tensions and oil price volatility among many other factors.

In a perfect world, a well-managed diversification into precious metals mining and building a national gold stock could support the CBN’s foreign exchange reserves in the longer term. But we do not live in a perfect world. Negative news around illegal smuggling and violence around the sector have hit the sector’s reputation. However, there is still hope if government regulations instil long-term trust and credibility -especially when factoring in the sector’s strong potential.

Lukman Otunuga is the Senior Research Analyst at FXTM

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Economy

Tinubu Presents N58.47trn Budget for 2026 to National Assembly

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By Adedapo Adesanya

President Bola Tinubu on Friday presented a budget proposal of N58.47 trillion for the 2026 fiscal year titled Budget of Consolidation, Renewed Resilience and Shared Prosperity to a joint session of the National Assembly, with capital recurrent (non‑debt) expenditure standing at 15.25 trillion, and the capital expenditure at N26.08 trillion, while the crude oil benchmark was pegged at $64.85 per barrel.

Business Post reports that the Brent crude grade currently trades around $60 per barrel. It is also expected to trade at that level or lower next year over worries about oil glut.

At the budget presentation today, Mr Tinubu said the expected total revenue for the year is N34.33 trillion, and the proposal is anchored on a crude oil production of 1.84 million barrels per day, and an exchange rate of N1,400 to the US Dollar.

In terms of sectoral allocation, defence and security took the lion’s share with N5.41 trillion, followed by infrastructure at N3.56 trillion, education received N3.52 trillion, while health received N2.48 trillion.

Addressing the lawmakers, the President described the budget proposal as not “just accounting lines”.

“They are a statement of national priorities,” the president told the gathering. “We remain firmly committed to fiscal sustainability, debt transparency, and value‑for‑money spending.”

The presentation came at a time of heightened insecurity in parts of the country, with mass abductions and other crimes making headlines.

Outlining his government’s plan to address the challenge, President Tinubu reminded the gathering that security “remains the foundation of development”.

He said some of the measures in place to tame insecurity include the modernisation of the Armed Forces, intelligence‑driven policing and joint operations, border security, and technology‑enabled surveillance and community‑based peacebuilding and conflict prevention.

“We will invest in security with clear accountability for outcomes—because security spending must deliver security results,” the president said.

“To secure our country, our priority will remain on increasing the fighting capability of our armed forces and other security agencies by boosting personnel and procuring cutting-edge platforms and other hardware,” he added.

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Economy

PenCom Extends Deadline for Pension Recapitalisation to June 2027

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By Aduragbemi Omiyale

The deadline for the recapitalisation of the Nigerian pension industry has been extended by six months to June 2027 from December 2026.

This extension was approved by the National Pension Commission (PenCom), the agency, which regulates the sector in the country.

Addressing newsmen on Thursday in Lagos, the Director-General of PenCom, Ms Omolola Oloworaran, explained that the shift in deadline was to give operators more time to boost the capital base, dismissing speculations that the exercise had been suspended.

“The recapitalisation has not been suspended. We have communicated the requirements to the Pension Fund Administrators (PFAs), and we expect every operator to be compliant by June 2027. Anyone who is not compliant by then will lose their licence,” Ms Oloworaran told journalists.

She added that, “From a regulatory standpoint, our major challenge is ensuring compliance. We are working with ICPC, labour and the TUC to ensure employers remit pension contributions for their employees.”

The DG noted that engagements with industry operators indicated broad acceptance of the policy, with many PFAs already taking steps to raise additional capital or explore mergers and acquisitions.

“You may see some mergers and acquisitions in the industry, but what is clear is that the recapitalisation exercise is on track and the industry agrees with us,” she stated.

PenCom wants the PFAs to increase their capital base and has created three categories, with the first consists operators with Assets Under Management of N500 billion and above. They are expected to have a minimum capital of N20 billion and one per cent of AUM above N500 billion.

The second category has PFAs with AUM below N500 billion, which must have at least N20 billion as capital base.

The last segment comprises special-purpose PFAs such as NPF Pensions Limited, whose minimum capital was pegged at N30 billion, and the Nigerian University Pension Management Company Limited, whose minimum capital was fixed at N20 billion.

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Economy

Three Securities Sink NASD Exchange by 0.68%

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By Adedapo Adesanya

Three securities weakened the NASD Over-the-Counter (OTC) Securities Exchange by 0.68 per cent on Thursday, December 18.

According to data, Central Securities Clearing System (CSCS) Plc led the losers’ group after it slipped by N2.87 to N36.78 per share from N39.65 per share, Golden Capital Plc depreciated by 77 Kobo to end at N6.98 per unit versus the previous day’s N7.77 per unit, and FrieslandCampina Wamco Nigeria Plc dropped 19 Kobo to sell at N60.00 per share versus Wednesday’s closing price of N60.19 per share.

At the close of business, the market capitalisation lost N16.81 billion to finish at N2.147 billion compared with the preceding session’s N2.164 trillion, and the NASD Unlisted Security Index (NSI) declined by 24.76 points to 3,589.88 points from 3,614.64 points.

Yesterday, the volume of securities bought and sold increased by 49.3 per cent to 30.5 million units from 20.4 million units, the value of securities surged by 211.8 per cent to N225.1 million from N72.2 million, and the number of deals jumped by 33.3 per cent to 28 deals from 21 deals.

Infrastructure Credit Guarantee Company (InfraCredit) Plc remained the most traded stock by value with a year-to-date sale of 5.8 billion units valued at N16.4 billion, followed by Okitipupa Plc with 178.9 million units transacted for N9.5 billion, and MRS Oil Plc with 36.1 million units worth N4.9 billion.

Similarly, InfraCredit Plc ended as the most traded stock by volume on a year-to-date basis with 5.8 billion units traded for N16.4 billion, trailed by Industrial and General Insurance (IGI) Plc with 1.2 billion units sold for N420.7 million, and Impresit Bakolori Plc with 536.9 million units exchanged for N524.9 million.

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