Economy
CCNN: Upward Revision to Estimates on Strong 9M-17 Results
We revise forecasts for CCNN following impressive 9M-17 results, and roll forward estimates and valuation to 2018. On net, we raise our TP for the stock by 28% to NGN9.52/share and upgrade rating to HOLD.
The revision to our estimates was driven by improved EBITDA and EBITDA margin (+113% and +774 bps respectively in 9M-17) on (1) higher realized sales volume and stronger selling price and (2) improved energy cost (-10% YtD and -35% q/q cost/tonne in Q3).
On net, we raise our EBITDA and net profit forecasts by 33% and 38% respectively for 2017F, and by 14% and 16% average respectively for 2018-2019F.
CCNN’s annualized 9M-17 EBITDA and net profit are 38% and 36% ahead of Bloomberg’s consensus’ 12-month estimates.
We increase sales volume and price forecasts for 2017 by 6% and 9% respectively, equating to -16% (previously -20%) and +58% (previously 44%) from 2016. The revised volume estimate follows strong growth in Q3 (we estimate +26% q/q and +13% y/y) achieved on the back of lower prices (by N50/bag compared to Q2-17, using ASHAKACEM’s prices as proxy).
Discount on cement sold by CCNN in Q3-17 alone was NGN580 million, compared to NGN332.9 million in H1-17. Following the contraction in 2017, we forecast sales volume will grow by 2% in 2018 and flattish in 2019 on estimated 85% plant utilization rate. Compared to 2017, outlook for national cement consumption is modestly optimistic. Our estimated utilization rate also considers less production disruption from better energy availability on significantly reduced demand from the bigger players and less volatile prices on stable FX.
Those said, CCNN’s lower volume growth estimate compared to the industry (+9% average), reflects the capacity constraint challenge facing the company. At 9M-17 run-rate, we estimate CCNN’s 0.5Mts/year plant capacity is already running at 83% utilization for 2017F.
Notwithstanding the expected modest recovery of consumption, the outlook for cement selling prices remains positive. The market leaders have repeatedly communicated intent to maintain stable prices, and the nature of the Nigerian cement market makes this realizable.
More positive for CCNN is that the current NGN45,997/tonne selling price (vs. NGN43,705/tonne in 9M-17), assuming unchanged next year, translates to 2% gain over our estimated 2017 average of
NGN44,920/tonne.
Compared to Q2-17, we estimate that CCNN achieved 35% decline in per tonne energy cost in Q3-17. This, in our view, was significant in the surprised 938 bps q/q gross margin expansion achieved during the period. Outlook for the price of CCNN’s type of energy is positive, on significantly reduced demand from the bigger consumers in the cement industry and positive feed-through from stronger one-year naira outlook.
Downside risk, however, is the potential increase in the unregulated LPFO price, on rising crude oil price; hence, our EBITDA margin estimates of 23% average for 2018-2019F (albeit above 5-year average of 17%), vs. 27% for 2017F (on the backdrop of the 33% margin achieved in Q3).
Media reports have recently quoted top management member of CCNN reiterating progress on expansion work (additional 1.5Mts/year to increase capacity to 2Mts/year) in Sokoto and guiding to delivery in 2018. While noting the significance of the delivery of additional volume on EBITDA formation going forward, we are still reluctant to factor the expansion into our model, given that the company’s recent financials (balance sheet and cash flow statements) are yet to capture the movement of capital to support management’s claim.
Economy
Nigeria Needs More Taxpayers, Not Higher Taxes—Oyedele
By Adedapo Adesanya
The Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy, Mr Taiwo Oyedele, yesterday clarified that the federal government is not increasing taxes but making efforts to raise the tax net.
Mr Oyedele made this remark on Thursday while receiving a delegation from the Chartered Institute of Taxation of Nigeria (CITN) at his office in Abuja.
He hailed the institute for introducing a National Tax Awareness Day and for supporting the current tax reforms of the federal government.
The minister charged the institute to double its effort in public enlightenment, stressing that many Nigerians still view taxation as a means for the government to take money from citizens.
He reiterated that the priority of the government is not to increase tax rates but to broaden the tax base by ensuring that all eligible taxpayers meet their obligations.
“We are still not getting enough revenue from taxes.
“It is not about increasing taxes but making sure that those who are supposed to pay taxes. We want to promote fairness in tax administration,” he said.
Nigeria is challenged by the inability to generate adequate revenue from taxation despite ongoing reforms, stressing that a significant number of eligible taxpayers have yet to fulfil their civic obligations.
He said the challenge facing the country was not necessarily about raising tax rates but ensuring that individuals and businesses that ought to pay taxes do so in a fair and transparent system.
The minister also commended the institute for supporting the federal government’s tax reform agenda and promoting public understanding of taxation, but urged it to intensify its advocacy efforts, noting that many Nigerians still harbour misconceptions about taxation.
According to him, many citizens continue to view taxation merely as a tool for the government to take money from the people rather than as a critical instrument for national development.
“We are still not getting enough revenue from taxes. It is not about increasing taxes, but making sure that those who are supposed to pay taxes. We want to promote fairness in tax administration,” he added.
Mr Oyedele stressed that if Nigeria succeeds in building an efficient and equitable tax system, the impact on infrastructure, public services and economic development would be transformative, challenging the institute to introduce annual awards for the country’s most tax-compliant individuals and organisations as a means of encouraging voluntary compliance and recognising responsible taxpayers.
Economy
Akara, Kulikuli, Roasted Corn Business Not Capital Intensive—Remi Tinubu
By Modupe Gbadeyanka
Nigeria’s First Lady, Mrs Oluremi Tinubu, has given Nigerians business advice that may not involve a lot of money to start.
Speaking with newsmen recently, the wife of President Bola Tinubu said businesses like akara (fried bean cake), kulikuli (a crunchy snack from roasted peanuts or groundnuts) and roasted corn can be set up without breaking the bank.
She disclosed that to support her husband’s Renewed Hope agenda, she has provided funding packages to traders and others to the tune of N3.5 billion.
“To start akara business doesn’t take a lot of money. To start roasting corn and kuli-kuli doesn’t take much. We didn’t give them a loan; we gave it to them as a grant,” she stated.
She further said, “We’ve encouraged Nigerians as best as we could, what is within our hands, I have given, and I keep giving. Those are the things we’ve done.”
“I remember giving for TB (tuberculosis) when I heard of many TB cases; I gave N2 billion, to breast cancer, I gave N1 billion, and to [tackle] malnutrition, I gave N500 million.
“These are the things we’ve been doing to assist the government. So, we’ve had impact in agriculture, social investment, education (as scholarship and ICT training) and others. We are still open to doing more,” she disclosed.
Economy
NASD Exchange Extends Winning Streak by 1.70%
By Adedapo Adesanya
The NASD Over-the-Counter (OTC) Securities Exchange rallied by 1.70 per cent on Thursday, June 25, after three price gainers overpowered the two price losers recorded at the close of business.
Consequently, the market capitalisation of the trading platform increased by N43.79 billion to N2.618 trillion from N2.574 trillion, and the NASD Security Index (NSI) improved by 72.96 points to close at 4,362.32 points, in contrast to Wednesday’s 4,289.36 points.
Yesterday, the price advancers were led by Nipco Plc, which chalked up N31.79 to close at N349.76 per unit versus the preceding day’s N317.97 per unit. Okitipupa Plc gained N18.00 to end at N298.00 per share versus the previous session’s N280.00 per share, and Central Securities Clearing System (CSCS) Plc went up by N7.11 to N86.79 per unit from N79.68 per unit.
On the flip side, Nitrox Industrial Gases Plc crumbled by 32 Kobo to close at N21.09 per share compared with the N21.41 per share it closed at midweek, and Food Concepts Plc depreciated by 25 Kobo to N2.51 per unit from N2.76 per unit.
During the session, the value of securities traded by investors went down by 86.7 per cent to N10.9 million from the preceding session’s N82.9 million, and the volume of securities dropped 84.9 per cent to 10.9 million units from the previous 82.9 million, while the number of deals grew by 84.2 per cent to 35 deals from 19 deals.
At the close of trades, Great Nigeria Insurance (GNI) Plc remained the most traded stock by value on a year-to-date basis, with 3.4 billion units sold for N8.4 billion, trailed by Infrastructure Credit Guarantee (Infracredit) Plc with 2.3 billion units valued at N6.5 billion, and CSCS Plc with 68.4 million units exchanged for N4.7 billion.
GNI Plc was also the most traded stock by volume on a year-to-date basis, with 3.4 billion units worth N8.4 billion, followed by Infracredit Plc with 2.3 billion units traded for N6.5 billion, and Resourcery Plc with 1.1 billion units transacted for N415.7 million.
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