Economy
Flour Mills of Nigeria: Revision to Estimates
We revise 2018 forecasts for FLOURMILL following H1, wherein EBITDA and net profit were impacted by strong FX-linked net operating gains and double-digit revenue growth, which more than offset both weaker y/y gross margin and higher finance costs.
While we look for relatively (to H1-18) weaker earnings in H2-18, we expect they would be stronger compared to H2-17. Overall, we raise our EBITDA and net profit forecasts by 10% and 72% respectively for 2018F.
Upward revision to estimates was conservative (flattish and 2% respectively) for 2019-2020F. On net, we raise our TP for the stock by 35% to NGN38.89 and maintain HOLD rating.
We increase revenue growth forecast for 2018 to 8.9% (previously 7.6%) on stronger run rate of 17% in H1. The waning impact of prices on revenue was visible in Q2 growth rate (9.8%, the slowest pace since Q4-15/16), and management said – in obvious acknowledgement of the little room for price increases – it will leverage on increased sales volumes and marketing activities to boost top-line going forward.
We retain revenue growth forecast of 9.4% for 2019-2020, on continued resilience of the Food division, and stronger growth in the Agro-Allied and Packaging divisions, amidst the gradually recovering consumer purchasing power and spending from general elections.
Downside risks to volume, however, are (1) potentially intense competition (on improving dollar liquidity and FGN supply of subsidized fertilizers) and (2) the gridlock in Apapa (which negatively affects both the movement of goods out of FLOURMILL’s factory and customers’ access to the factory), on the back of the ongoing repair works, and the consequent congestion of the seaport.
We revise net operating gain forecast for 2018F to NGN7.7 billion (previously –NGN1.4 billion), following the strong formation (NGN5.1 billion) over H1, on the revaluation of liabilities (via FX hedges using NDFs and forwards) and biological assets (the sugar plantation). These items are excluded from our estimates for 2019-2020.
Notwithstanding the 331 bps q/q improvement in gross margin in Q2, we revise 2018 estimate lower by 69bps to 12.01% on slower-than-expected recovery (-237 bps in H1). While noting the risk from selling prices (given outlook for competition) and input cost (wheat prices for delivery in 12 months are higher by 14% for November contracts) pressures, we also point to tailwinds from (1) stable-strengthening exchange rate and (2) better energy mix from improved gas availability
We revise 2018F finance cost forecast lower by 4%, following the reduction of borrowings to NGN188.2 billion, from end-2017FY NGN241.6 billion. The modest revision of our forecast, including for 2019-2020, notwithstanding the sizeable reduction of outstanding loans, reflects the increased average interest rate (+226 bps since March ending) on more expensive debt mix. FLOURMILL’s management recently announced plans to raise NGN70 billion via Medium Term Notes. We have not factored this into our model, as management stated at the Q2 results analysts call that the signing will be in 2018, “depending on the evolution of interest rates.”
Economy
FAAC Disburses 1.727trn to FG, States Local Councils in December 2024
By Modupe Gbadeyanka
The federal government, the 36 states of the federation and the 774 local government areas have received N1.727 trillion from the Federal Accounts Allocation Committee (FAAC) for December 2024.
The funds were disbursed to the three tiers of government from the revenue generated by the nation in November 2024.
At the December meeting of FAAC held in Abuja, it was stated that the amount distributed comprised distributable statutory revenue of N455.354 billion, distributable Value Added Tax (VAT) revenue of N585.700 billion, Electronic Money Transfer Levy (EMTL) revenue of N15.046 billion and Exchange Difference revenue of N671.392 billion.
According to a statement signed on Friday by the Director of Press and Public Relations for FAAC, Mr Bawa Mokwa, the money generated last month was about N3.143 trillion, with N103.307 billion used for cost of collection and N1.312 trillion for transfers, interventions and refunds.
It was disclosed that gross statutory revenue of N1.827 trillion was received compared with the N1.336 trillion recorded a month earlier.
The statement said gross revenue of N628.972 billion was available from VAT versus N668.291 billion in the preceding month.
The organisation stated that last month, oil and gas royalty and CET levies recorded significant increases, while excise duty, VAT, import duty, Petroleum Profit Tax (PPT), Companies Income Tax (CIT) and EMTL decreased considerably.
As for the sharing, FAAC disclosed that from the N1.727 trillion, the central government got N581.856 billion, the states received N549.792 billion, the councils took N402.553 billion, while the benefiting states got N193.291 billion as 13 per cent derivation revenue.
From the N585.700 billion VAT earnings, the national government got N87.855 billion, the states received N292.850 billion and the local councils were given N204.995 billion.
Also, from the N455.354 billion distributable statutory revenue, the federal government was given N175.690 billion, the states got N89.113 billion, the local governments had N68.702 billion, and the benefiting states received N121.849 billion as 13 per cent derivation revenue.
In addition, from the N15.046 billion EMTL revenue, FAAC shared N2.257 billion to the federal government, disbursed N7.523 billion to the states and transferred N5.266 billion to the local councils.
Further, from the N671.392 billion Exchange Difference earnings, it gave central government N316.054 billion, the states N160.306 billion, the local government areas N123.590 billion, and the oil-producing states N71.442 billion as 13 per cent derivation revenue.
Economy
Okitipupa Plc, Two Others Lift Unlisted Securities Market by 0.65%
By Adedapo Adesanya
The NASD Over-the-Counter (OTC) Securities Exchange recorded a 0.65 per cent gain on Friday, December 13, boosted by three equities admitted on the trading platform.
On the last trading session of the week, Okitipupa Plc appreciated by N2.70 to settle at N29.74 per share versus Thursday’s closing price of N27.04 per share, FrieslandCampina Wamco Nigeria Plc added N2.49 to end the session at N42.85 per unit compared with the previous day’s N40.36 per unit, and Afriland Properties Plc gained 50 Kobo to close at N16.30 per share, in contrast to the preceding session’s N15.80 per share.
Consequently, the market capitalisation added N6.89 billion to settle at N1.062 trillion compared with the preceding day’s N1.055 trillion and the NASD Unlisted Security Index (NSI) gained 19.66 points to wrap the session at 3,032.16 points compared with 3,012.50 points recorded in the previous session.
Yesterday, the volume of securities traded by investors increased by 171.6 per cent to 1.2 million units from the 447,905 units recorded a day earlier, but the value of shares traded by the market participants declined by 19.3 per cent to N2.4 million from the N3.02 million achieved a day earlier, and the number of deals went down by 14.3 per cent to 18 deals from 21 deals.
At the close of business, Geo-Fluids Plc was the most active stock by volume on a year-to-date basis with a turnover of 1.7 billion units worth N3.9 billion, followed by Okitipupa Plc with the sale of 752.2 million units valued at N7.8 billion, and Afriland Properties Plc with 297.3 million units sold for N5.3 million.
In the same vein, Aradel Holdings Plc remained the most active stock by value on a year-to-date basis with the sale of 108.7 million units for N89.2 billion, trailed by Okitipupa Plc with 752.2 million units valued at N7.8 billion, and Afriland Properties Plc with a turnover of 297.3 million units worth N5.3 billion.
Economy
Naira Trades N1,533/$1 at Official Market, N1,650/$1 at Parallel Market
By Adedapo Adesanya
The Naira appreciated further against the United States Dollar at the Nigerian Autonomous Foreign Exchange Market (NAFEM) by N1.50 or 0.09 per cent to close at N1,533.00/$1 on Friday, December 13 versus the N1,534.50/$1 it was transacted on Thursday.
The local currency has continued to benefit from the Electronic Foreign Exchange Matching System (EFEMS) introduced by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) this month.
The implementation of the forex system comes with diverse implications for all segments of the financial markets that deal with FX, including the rebound in the value of the Naira across markets.
The system instantly reflects data on all FX transactions conducted in the interbank market and approved by the CBN.
Market analysts say the publication of real-time prices and buy-sell orders data from this system has lent support to the Naira in the official market and tackled speculation.
In the official market yesterday, the domestic currency improved its value against the Pound Sterling by N12.58 to wrap the session at N1,942.19/£1 compared with the previous day’s N1,954.77/£1 and against the Euro, it gained N2.44 to close at N1,612.85/€1 versus Thursday’s closing price of N1,610.41/€1.
At the black market, the Nigerian Naira appreciated against the greenback on Friday by N30 to sell for N1,650/$1 compared with the preceding session’s value of N1,680/$1.
Meanwhile, the cryptocurrency market was largely positive as investors banked on recent signals, including fresh support from US President-elect, Mr Donald Trump, as well as interest rate cuts by the European Central Bank (ECB).
Ripple (XRP) added 7.3 per cent to sell at $2.49, Binance Coin (BNB) rose by 3.5 per cent to $728.28, Cardano (ADA) expanded by 2.4 per cent to trade at $1.11, Litecoin (LTC) increased by 2.3 per cent to $122.56, Bitcoin (BTC) gained 1.9 per cent to settle at $101,766.17, Dogecoin (DOGE) jumped by 1.2 per cent to $0.4064, Solana (SOL) soared by 0.7 per cent to $226.15 and Ethereum (ETH) advanced by 0.6 per cent to $3,925.35, while the US Dollar Tether (USDT) and the US Dollar Coin (USDC) remained unchanged at $1.00 each.
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