Economy

Competition to Further Weaken Nigerian Breweries Earnings

Published

7 years ago

08/03/2019

By Dipo Olowookere

Investors have been advised to offload Nigerian Breweries shares in their holdings because things look gloomy for the brewery giant.

Recently, the company released its financial statements for the year ended December 31, 2018 and from the numbers, analysts at Cordros Research said they “expect net earnings to decline further in 2019E on intense competition from International Breweries and Guinness Nigeria, a further increase in excise duty, and still-weak consumer demand environment.”

In their report, they said Nigerian Breweries will suffer a 3.6 percent decline in net revenue, flattish gross margin and 15.2 percent EBITDA and 26.9 percent net profit declines.

It further said volume growth will remain weak in 2019 given cautious macro outlook, amidst a still pressured consumer wallet and a more intense competitive environment.

“Although a bright spot for volume exists in the premium segment leveraging Heineken, we expect the depression in the economy (the new mainstream) segment will continue for the next 2-3 years.

“On the whole, we revise our 2019E net revenue forecast lower by 1.2 percent to N312.84 billion (-3.6 percent y/y),” Cordros Research said.

Commenting on the gross margin estimate for 2019E, Cordros revised this 72 bps lower to 38.6 percent, and estimates over 2020-2021E to average 39 percent.

It pointed out that margin impairment is expected to continue until 2021FY, with Nigerian Breweries facing costs, excise, and selling price pressures.

It was predicted that excise duty should grow by N0.35/cl by H1-19, further impacting net revenues of the company.

“Although management has stated it is prepared to take price increases throughout the year, we think this will be greatly dependent on competition (NB hastily hiked, then reversed, prices on Star Radler, Life, Gulder, and Goldberg in H1-18 following the increase in excise, however, competitors retained prices),” the report said.

The report further stated that it is slashing the 2019E EBITDA forecast by 14.6 percent on the back of rise in the OPEX, which will reflect increased marketing expenditure in pursuit of the shift from a sell-in to more of a sell-out strategy to address dwindling volumes.

“We forecast only a marginal decline in NB’s net finance costs (vs. 28.2 percent decrease in 2018FY), with borrowings (N41.13 billion in 2018FY) expected to moderate in line with a decline receivables,” the report stated.

On the valuation, Cordros Research said the net impact of the changes to its model is a cut to 2019E EPS estimate to N1.78 (from N2.63 previously) and a target price of N57.98 (previously N68.96), with SELL rating.

On a year-to-date basis, shares of Nigerian Breweries have dropped 6 percent.

“On our estimates, NB currently trades on 2019E P/E and EV/EBITDA multiples of 45.1x and 11.0x respectively, relative to MEA peer averages of 22.24x and 11.7x respectively,” it said.

Economy

Dangote Values Refinery at $39bn, Seeks $1bn in Private Placement

Published

21 hours ago

11/06/2026

Adedapo Adesanya

By Adedapo Adesanya

Dangote Petroleum Refinery is seeking to raise about $1 billion through a private placement that values the company at $39.1 billion.

According to reports, the refinery is offering 3 billion ordinary shares at $0.35 per share. Investors must subscribe for at least 1 million shares, equal to $350,000, with additional subscriptions accepted in multiples of 500,000 shares. The shares will be subject to a 365-day lock-up period from allotment.

It was reported that demand for the offer has already exceeded $2 billion, suggesting that the placement may be oversubscribed.

The operation is already attracting the interest of local investors. Recall that Nigerian billionaire, Mr Femi Otedola, has committed $100 million, while Afrobeats superstar, Mr David Adeleke, popularly known as Davido, also announced he would participate.

The proceeds will be used for expansion projects and general corporate purposes as the refinery deepens its role in Nigeria’s fuel supply market.

The facility has a nameplate capacity of 650,000 barrels per day and began fuel production in 2024. It produces diesel, aviation fuel, naphtha and premium motor spirit.

Standard Bank Group has also said it plans to play a leading role in the refinery’s future public listing, after the facility completed test runs at 700,000 barrels per day. It aims to reach 1.4 million barrels per day by 2028.

The fundraising is likely to renew expectations of a future public listing with a major stakeholder, Mr Aliko Dangote, saying the refinery could be listed, though no timeline was disclosed in the memorandum.

The current placement is seen as an early step that could expand ownership ahead of any future initial public offering (IPO).

Mr Dangote plans to sell between 5 and 10 per cent of the refinery on five major African exchanges: the Nigerian Exchange (NGX), the Johannesburg Stock Exchange (JSE), the BRVM, the Nairobi Securities Exchange (NSE) and the Ghana Stock Exchange (GSE).

It has appointed Stanbic IBTC Capital, Vetiva Capital Management and FirstCap to lead the planned initial public offering of its refinery business on the Nigerian Exchange.

Economy

Investors Lose N3.1bn as NASD Exchange Remains Red

Published

1 day ago

11/06/2026

Adedapo Adesanya

By Adedapo Adesanya

The NASD Over-the-Counter (OTC) Securities Exchange entered a third straight day of losses after it fell by 0.12 per cent on Wednesday, June 10.

The depletion trimmed the market capitalisation further by N3.1 billion to N2.590 trillion from N2.593 trillion, and cut the NASD Unlisted Security Index (NSI) by 5.19 points to 4330.12 points from 4,335.31 points.

11 Plc lost N22.21 during the session to finish at N221.00 per share versus the previous day’s N243.21 per share, MRS Oil Plc depreciated by N6.90 to N158.10 per unit from N165.00 per unit, and Central Securities Clearing System (CSCS) Plc decreased by N2.81 to N78.32 per share from N81.13 per share.

On the flip side, FrieslandCampina Wamco Nigeria Plc went up by N9.27 to N183.08 per unit from N173.81 per unit, Nitrox Industrial Gases Plc added N1.92 to its value to close at N23.80 per share compared with the preceding day’s N21.88 per share, and Food Concepts Plc gained 10 Kobo to exchange at N2.58 per unit, in contrast to Tuesday’s closing price of N2.48 per unit.

At the close of business, the volume of securities traded by investors contracted by 92.6 per cent to 117,374 units from 1.6 million units, and the value of securities moderated by 80.5 per cent to N12.2 million from N62.3 million, while the number of deals increased by 4.9 per cent to 43 deals from 41 deals.

Great Nigeria Insurance (GNI) Plc finished the day as the most traded stock by value on a year-to-date basis with 3.4 billion units worth N8.4 billion, followed by Infrastructure Credit Guarantee (Infracredit) Plc with 2.3 billion units traded for N6.5 billion, and CSCS Plc with 65.2 million units exchanged for N4.4 billion.

GNI Plc also closed the session as the most traded stock by volume on a year-to-date basis with 3.4 billion units valued at N8.4 billion, followed by Infracredit Plc with 2.3 billion units transacted for N6.5 billion, and Resourcery Plc with 1.1 billion units sold for N415.7 million

Economy

Naira Crashes to N1,362.05/$1 at Official Window After N1.50 Loss

Published

1 day ago

11/06/2026

Adedapo Adesanya

By Adedapo Adesanya

The Naira fell against the United States Dollar by N1.50 or 0.11 per cent in the Nigerian Autonomous Foreign Exchange Market (NAFEX) to sell at N1,362.05/$1 on Wednesday, June 10, compared with the N1,360.55/$1 it traded on Tuesday.

Also, the local currency lost N4.33 against the Pound Sterling in the official window yesterday to trade at N1,827.33/£1 versus the preceding day’s N1,823.00/£1, and depreciated against the Euro by N1.74 to quote at N1,575.35/€1, in contrast to N1,573.61/€1 of the previous session.

However, at the GTBank forex desk, the Naira gained N3 against the US Dollar to sell at N1,370/$1 versus N1,373/$1, and at the parallel market, it remained unchanged at N1,380/$1.

Updated data from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) showed that foreign reserves surged further due to additional inflows from various sources. Nigeria’s gross external reserves increased to $50.439 billion, its highest level since March 2026, reflecting sustained inflows from oil revenue and other FX sources.

Also, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has said increased confidence in the Naira, supported by lower and more stable inflation, would encourage households, businesses and investors to hold more local currency assets and reduce reliance on foreign currencies.

The global lender, in a recent assessment, stressed the importance of strengthening the CBN’s operational framework and aligning liquidity management operations more closely with monetary policy objectives.

In the cryptocurrency market, there were recoveries from recent losses as US headline inflation rose an expected 0.5 per cent in May, but the beat on the core rate — which cuts out food and energy costs — pleased markets. The core rate, though, rose just 0.2 per cent in May against forecasts for 0.3 per cent.

The print reinforces the view that the US Federal Reserve will keep interest rates at 350-375 basis points at its June 17 meeting, but is likely to increase rates by 25 basis points by the end of the year.

Cardano (ADA) went up by 2.4 per cent to $0.1647, Bitcoin (BTC) rose by 2.3 per cent to $62,794.09, Binance Coin (BNB) jumped 1.8 per cent to $596.23, Ethereum (ETH) grew by 1.7 per cent to $1,658.12, and Solana (SOL) also soared by 1.7 per cent to $65.23.

Further, Dogecoin (DOGE) appreciated by 1.5 per cent to $0.0849, Ripple (XRP) expanded by 0.4 per cent to $1.11, and TRON (TRX) increased by 0.05 per cent to $0.3218, while the US Dollar Tether (USDT) lost 0.10 per cent to close at $0.9989, and the US Dollar Coin (USDC) declined by 0.01 per cent to $0.9997.