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Economy

Continuing Struggle over Non-oil Revenue

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edo Revenue Collection

By FBNQuest Research

We again offer commentary on non-oil revenue collection because it will prove the litmus test for the FGN’s economic policy agenda and because we have an additional three months’ figures from the CBN. The data show collection of N220bn in May and N1.13trn for the first five months of the year. In both cases revenue generation is well short of what the CBN terms the 2017 monthly budget of N445bn.   When we add the said monthly oil revenue target of N450bn, we arrive at a full-year projection of N10.74trn for federally collectible receipts.

These are not to be confused with FGN revenue collection, which the 2017 proposals from the budget and national planning ministry set at N4.94trn (N1.99trn from oil and N2.95trn from non-oil).

We do have a concern or two about the CBN’s monthly budget figure for non-oil collection because it includes N150bn for VAT. Both official briefings and our conversations point to a determination not to raise the standard 5% rate for the tax with the possible exception of luxury goods (Good Morning Nigeria, 12 July 2017).  Monthly collection of the tax is running at +/-N80bn.

We should wait to see the size of the seasonal boost to companies’ income tax in July and August. At this point, however, the omens are not good and the likely loser will be the FBN’s ambitious plans for capital spending this year.

A Fitch Ratings expressed similar opinions in its full report dated March 2017. Its projections show general government revenue (ie all three tiers) growing slowly from its estimate of 5.1% of GDP last year to just 7.9% in 2018. The ratio for 2016 compares with 19.2% for Kenya (also rated B+) and 23.4% for Angola (B). Fitch’s commentary stresses the “struggle in increasing VAT and corporate tax compliance”.

Modupe Gbadeyanka is a fast-rising journalist with Business Post Nigeria. Her passion for journalism is amazing. She is willing to learn more with a view to becoming one of the best pen-pushers in Nigeria. Her role models are the duo of CNN's Richard Quest and Christiane Amanpour.

Economy

NASD Exchange Falls 0.22% After Investors Lose N4.8bn

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NASD securities exchange

By Adedapo Adesanya

The NASD Over-the-Counter (OTC) Securities Exchange weakened by 0.22 per cent on Tuesday, April 28, with the market capitalisation down by N4.8 billion to N2.420 trillion from N2.425 trillion, and the NASD Unlisted Security Index (NSI) down by 9.01 points to 4,044.96 points from 4,053.97 points.

During the session, the price of Central Securities Clearing System (CSCS) Plc went down by N1.82 to N767.05 per share from N78.87 per share, while FrieslandCampina Wamco Nigeria Plc appreciated by N1.90 to N100.00 per unit from N98.10 per unit.

According to data, the value of trades increased by 265.7 per cent to N27.1 million from N7.4 million units, and the volume of transactions surged by 305.2 per cent to 1.3 million units from 319,831 units, while the number of deals decreased by 6.9 per cent to 27 deals from 29 deals.

Great Nigeria Insurance (GNI) Plc remained the most traded stock by value on a year-to-date basis, with the sale of 3.4 billion units valued at N8.4 billion, followed by CSCS Plc with 59.8 million units exchanged for N4.0 billion, and Okitipupa Plc with 27.8 million units traded for N1.9 billion.

GNI Plc also finished as the most traded stock by volume on a year-to-date basis, with a turnover of 3.4 billion units worth N8.4 billion, trailed by Resourcery Plc with 1.1 billion units transacted for N415.7 million, and Infrastructure Guarantee Credit Plc with 400 million units sold for N1.2 billion.

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Economy

Naira Crashes to N1,380/$ at Official Market, N1,390/$1 at Black Market

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forex black market

By Adedapo Adesanya

Pressure is beginning to mount on the Nigerian Naira in the different segments of the foreign exchange (FX) market despite an oil windfall triggered by the Middle East crisis.

On Monday, April 27, the domestic currency further weakened against the United States Dollar in the Nigerian Autonomous Foreign Exchange Market (NAFEX) by N16.47 or 1.2 per cent to N1,380.71/$1 from the previous day’s N1,364.24/$1.

It was not different against the Pound Sterling in the same market window, as it lost N16.04 to trade at N1,863.76/£1 versus Monday’s closing rate of N1,847.72/£1, and against the Euro, it slipped by N12.72 to close at N1,615.01/€1 versus N1,602.29/€1.

The Naira also depreciated against the Dollar at the black market yesterday by N5 to quote at N1,390/$1 compared with the previous price of N1,385, and at the GTBank forex counter, it further crashed by N9 to settle at N1,379/$1 compared with the preceding session’s N1,370/$1.

The continued decline of the Naira comes as traders increasingly seek other safe-haven currencies amid continued global disruptions.

The benefit awash in the global market is making foreign portfolio investors stay short in Nigerian markets. Despite this, the daily FX publication released showed that interbank turnover rose to $98.829 million across 78 deals, up from $76.65 million.

Meanwhile, the cryptocurrency market remained cautious, with Bitcoin (BTC) trading at $77,216.66 despite surging oil prices and geopolitical tensions over a potential extended US naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz.

Analysts say the supply overhang has finally dried up, and the sellers who were spooked by macro shifts or quantum fears have already exited, leaving the market much thinner on the sell-side.

Investors will await decisions made by central banks this week. The US Federal Reserve will announce its rate decision later on Wednesday, while the European Central Bank (ECB) follows on Thursday.

Ethereum (ETH) gained 1.5 per cent to trade at $2,324.59, Dogecoin (DOGE) chalked up 1.4 per cent to sell for $0.1016, Solana (SOL) appreciated by 0.6 per cent to $84.85, Cardano (ADA) grew by 0.5 per cent to $0.2483, and Binance Coin (BNB) advanced by 0.2 per cent to $627.15.

However, TRON (TRX) depreciated by 0.6 per cent to $0.3224, and Ripple (XRP) lost 0.03 per cent to sell at $1.39, while the US Dollar Tether (USDT) and the US Dollar Coin (USDC) were unchanged at $1.00 each.

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Economy

Oil up 3% as Hormuz Disruption Outweighs UAE OPEC Exit

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Oil Licensing Round

By Adedapo Adesanya

Oil was up by nearly 3 per cent on Tuesday as persistent worries about supply constraints from the closed Strait of Hormuz continued, with Brent futures for June rising by $3.03 or 2.8 per cent to $111.26 a barrel, and the US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures growing by $3.56 or 3.7 per cent to $99.93 a barrel.

An earlier round of negotiations between the United States and Iran collapsed last week after face-to-face talks failed.

Ship-tracking data showed significant disruptions in the region, with six Iranian oil tankers forced to turn back due to the US blockade, but some traffic is still moving.

Prices trimmed some of the advances after the United Arab Emirates (UAE), the fourth-largest producer in the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), said on Tuesday it would exit the group on this Friday, May 1, 2026.

This dealt a blow to the oil-exporting group and its de facto leader, Saudi Arabia.

The UAE could quickly ⁠add between 1 million and 1.5 million barrels per day of output. However, with the Strait of Hormuz effectively closed, analysts said that there’s nowhere for that supply to go.

The UAE joined OPEC in 1967, but tension with Saudi Arabia over production quotas has been building for years.

Under the OPEC+ deal, the country has been held to roughly 3 million barrels per day while sitting on capacity above 4 million. It has been pushing toward 5 million barrels per day by 2027, and that target is hard to achieve with quotas built around someone else’s view of the market.

The war in Yemen broke whatever was left of diplomatic patience.

President Donald Trump said he was unhappy with the latest Iranian proposal to end the war. The proposal would avoid addressing the nuclear programme until hostilities cease and Gulf shipping disputes are resolved.

The Idemitsu Maru, ‌a Panama-flagged ⁠tanker carrying 2 million barrels of Saudi oil, and an LNG tanker managed by the Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC) crossed the Strait on Tuesday, shipping data showed.

Vortexa data showed that the amount of crude oil held around the world on tankers that have been stationary for at least seven days rose to 153.11 million barrels as of April 24.

The American Petroleum Institute (API) estimated that crude oil inventories in the United States fell by 1.79 million barrels in the week ending April 24. The official data from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) will be released later on Wednesday.

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