Economy
Corporate Bond Market to Rebound as FGN Securities Yields Drop
The economic and financial market developments in the last few months in Nigeria point to a possible rebound of activities in the Corporate Bond Market (CBM) very soon.
The CBM had experienced a lull in activities in the last few years because of unfavourable economic and market conditions.
The recent events in Nigeria are changing the unfavourable conditions that have limited the growth of the CBM.
The recent drop in the yields on the Federal Government of Nigeria (FGN) securities, particularly the Nigerian Treasury Bills (NTB), creates an opportunity for the growth of activities in the CBM.
The improvement in the macroeconomic environment in Nigeria and the strategy of the Debt Management Office (DMO) to restructure the debt portfolio of the FGN were primary drivers of the drop in yield.
The need to curb the high inflation rate and maintain foreign exchange stability was responsible for the high NTB yields.
Consequently, there was a lull in activities in the CBM as companies could not compete with the high yields on the 364-day NTB.
Accordingly, most companies opted for Commercial Papers (CP) to raise short-term funds as bridge finance. The average yield on the 364-day NTB between January 2017 and November 2017 stood at 22.16% with the highest yield of 23.41% recorded in 19 April 2017. The high yields crowded out the corporate borrowers from the debt market.
According to data from FMDQ OTC Securities Exchange as at November 1, 2017, only two corporate bonds have so far been issued in 2017.
The two Corporate Bonds are: 17 percent Mixta Real Estate Plc January 2022 Bond and 18.25 percent Dufil September 2022 Bond.
In another development, a review of the latest Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) report that the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) published for the month of October 2017 shows that economic activities in the manufacturing and non-manufacturing sectors expanded further.
A PMI below the 50 points’ level suggests a decline in business activity while a PMI higher than the 50 points level suggests an expansion. When the PMI is at the 50 points’ level, it means that the degree of business activity in the economy is unchanged.
The Composite Manufacturing Index (CMI) expanded for the seventh consecutive month to stand at 55.0 points.
The Composite Non-Manufacturing Index (CNMI) also expanded for the sixth consecutive month to 55.3 points in October 2017 from 54.9 points in September 2017.
The increase in the PMI is also an indication of expected business expansion in the short-to-medium term which will require more financing.
The consensus forecasts for the Nigerian economy are that the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) will continue to grow. Although the GDP growth rates of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) for Nigeria from 2017 to 2020 are conservative, they are in the positive region.
Both FSDH Research and the Budget Office of the Federation believe the growth rates in the economy between 2017 and 2020 will remain strong, ranging from 2 percent to 7 percent. This means that more business investments will be undertaken.
Our analysis of the data released by the Nigerian Bureau of Statistics (NBS) on the Nigerian GDP (Expenditure and Income Approach) as at Q4, 2016 shows that consumption expenditure of households in Nigeria rose in 2016 compared with 2015.
The total consumption expenditure of households rose by 11.87 percent from N74.41trn in 2015 to N83.25trn in 2016.
FSDH Research expects the households’ consumption expenditure to continue to rise as the outlook for the Nigerian economy remains positive and consumer sentiments improve. The growth in the households’ consumption will also drive investments from firms to meet the growing demand.
FSDH Research believes that the capital requirement for these investments will exceed what companies can generate from internal cash flow. These companies will need external funding and with the expected drop in yields, corporate bond will be an attractive source of raising non-permanent long-term capital to meet the investment needs of firms.
By Dipo Olowookere
The Nigerian Exchange (NGX) Limited rebounded by 0.46 per cent on Tuesday despite continued weak investor sentiment due to low confidence in the market.
The gains recorded yesterday were largely impacted by significant trades in First Holdco by a major shareholder of the financial institution.
In terms of price gainers and losers, the bears won the race, as 28 equities closed in the red and 24 equities ended in the green, indicating a negative market breadth index.
Learn Africa grew by 10.00 per cent to N9.90, First Holdco expanded by 9.98 per cent to N72.15, Thomas Wyatt rose by 9.80 per cent to N2.69, RT Briscoe improved by 8.68 per cent to N13.15, and Transcorp Hotels increased by 8.37 per cent to N242.00.
Conversely, International Energy Insurance lost 9.86 per cent to close at N4.66, Legend Internet slipped by 9.18 per cent to N4.45, Fortis Global Insurance decreased by 7.67 per cent to N2.77, FTN Cocoa tumbled by 7.55 per cent to N8.21, and International Breweries dropped 4.79 per cent to trade at N13.90.
Business Post reports that First Holdco led the activity chart with a turnover of 326.9 million units worth N22.3 billion. GTCO traded 22.5 million units valued at N2.8 billion, Access Holdings transacted 18.5 million units for N461.6 million, FCMB sold 16.1 million units worth N166.8 million, and Zenith Bank exchanged 15.9 million units valued at N1.7 billion.
At the close of business, a total of 634.8 million stocks valued at N53.3 billion exchanged hands in 42,494 deals versus the 523.5 million stocks sold for N22.3 billion in 59,945 deals on Monday, indicating a shortfall in the number of deals by 29.11 per cent, and a surge in the trading volume and value by 21.26 per cent and 139.01 per cent, respectively.
The All-Share Index (ASI) was up during the trading day by 1,121.33 points to 242,870.44 points from 241,749.11 points, and the market capitalisation gained N719 billion to settle at N155.849 trillion compared with the previous day’s N155.130 trillion.
Market participants will be looking forward to the release of inflation data for June 2026 by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) today, Wednesday, July 15.
By Adedapo Adesanya
Oil prices climbed about 2 per cent to a one-month high on Tuesday after the US reportedly reimposed a naval blockade on Iran, which will reduce oil flows from the region through the Strait of Hormuz.
Brent futures rose by $1.43 or 1.7 per cent to settle at $84.73 per barrel, while the US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude increased by $1.20 or 1.5 per cent to $79.34 a barrel.
Brent closed at its highest since June 12, and WTI at its highest since June 15. The closing price increase kept Brent in technically overbought territory for a second day in a row for the first time since March.
Before the Iran war, about 20 per cent of global oil supplies flowed through the strait.
US President Donald Trump stepped back from a proposal to charge a 20 per cent fee to guard the Strait of Hormuz as part of the conflict with Iran, saying he would instead seek investment deals with Gulf states.
US forces had carried out waves of attacks for the third night after Iran said it had closed the strait. President Trump on Monday reinstated a blockade of Iranian shipping and proposed the fee, but hours before the fee was to take effect, the American President said the strait was open to all shipping traffic except that of Iran.
The renewed attacks have fed doubts that a memorandum of understanding signed last month will lead to a permanent halt in the war that has disrupted global energy supplies and stoked inflation fears.
Data showed that US consumer inflation slowed more than expected in June as energy prices retreated, but financial markets still expect an interest rate hike from the Federal Reserve.
The Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh on Tuesday vowed to “do my job” if challenged by President Trump, who has said he wants the US central bank to cut interest rates and boost economic growth.
The American Petroleum Institute (API) estimated that crude oil inventories in the US fell by 564,000 barrels in the week ending July 10. In the week prior, US crude oil inventories fell by 399,000 barrels.
Although commercial crude oil inventories excluding the SPR have been falling rapidly for three months now, shedding just over 60 million barrels over the last twelve weeks, US crude inventories are only down 9.2 million barrels so far this year. The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) will release its report later on Wednesday.
By Adedapo Adesanya
The 700,000 barrels per day Dangote Petroleum Refinery has begun pricing fuel products for the local market in US Dollars amid crude supply challenges.
The company cited difficulties securing sufficient crude under the government’s Naira-for-crude programme and rising global oil prices as reasons for the development.
The Naira-for-crude programme, launched in October 2024, allowed domestic refiners to purchase crude in the local currency and reduced pressure on the foreign exchange market.
Mr Edwin Devakumar, the vice president of the Dangote Group, said the refinery had been absorbing a currency mismatch by selling products in Naira while sourcing crude in Dollars, but limited crude supply under the Naira-for-crude programme had undermined the arrangement’s viability.
Dangote has now set the ex-depot price of petrol at $0.779 per litre, diesel at $1.087 per litre and aviation fuel at $0.942 per litre, according to a pricing template circulated to marketers.
Although the Nigerian National Petroleum Company (NNPC) Limited increased Dangote’s allocation to seven cargoes in May from about five previously, the refiner has said it requires 13 to 15 cargoes a month and has been forced to import the remainder at international prices.
The decision could boost demand for Dollars among fuel marketers and make domestic fuel prices more sensitive to exchange-rate fluctuations.
Dangote Refinery is steadily ramping up operations toward full capacity after a gradual start since late 2023. In April alone, it received 21 separate crude cargoes, with all supplies coming from West Africa, mainly Nigerian crude grades, with one cargo from Cameroon; however, it boosted international cargoes in recent months.
The refinery has been broadening the range of crude grades it processes as part of its ambition to operate as a fully merchant refinery. In 2025, about 70 per cent of the refinery’s crude imports came from Nigeria, while 24 per cent originated from the United States.
Dangote plans to double the refinery’s processing capacity to 1.4 million barrels per day by the end of 2028, a level that would enable it to process about 80 per cent of Nigeria’s recent crude oil production in a single day.
