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Crude Oil Prices to Trade Above $40 This Week

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crude oil prices

By Adedapo Adesanya 

Oil futures are expected to trade higher this week after the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), Russia, and other allies agreed on Saturday to extend record oil production cuts until the end of July.

This will prolong a deal that has helped crude prices double in the past two months by withdrawing almost 10 percent of global supplies from the market.

Both benchmarks gained almost 18 percent last week, lifted by news of the output cuts extension and signs that fuel demand has increased over countries easing lockdowns.

Following a week of discussions, OPEC and its allies (OPEC+) reached a deal to extend cuts into July instead of the earlier May and June.

With this new deal, oil producers will keep current level of cuts for another month after countries like Nigeria and Iraq pledged to meet and make up for not meeting compliance in the previous month. They have agreed to compensate the group with extra cuts in July to September.

This, coupled with the return of demand for the commodity, is expected to keep prices at their $40 plus levels in the week.

Another pointer that could push up prices is the emergence of a tropical storm called Cristobal. It is already driving prices of petrol up in the United States and could push prices even higher, depending on the damage to facilities it causes.

US Energy companies on Friday evacuated 10 percent of production platforms and shut nearly 30 percent of offshore oil output, and this pushed prices higher as Tropical Storm Cristobal entered the US Gulf of Mexico.

According to reports, operators evacuated 65 offshore facilities and moved seven drill rigs out of the storm’s path. This took out 544,814 barrels per day of oil.

Last week, the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported alarmingly high inventories. So, shutting down these facilities may help tackle the oversupply condition, but it may not show up in the government report for over a week. However, traders may consider this to be a good thing.

Price for the international benchmark, the Brent crude, is expected to circle around $43 per barrel from the new OPEC+ production cuts extension. However, analysts point out that traders are going to start looking for signs of increasing demand.

In the US, with the Tropical Storm Cristobal already driving up fuel prices and could push prices even higher. It all depends on where it hits the US and how much damage to production facilities it causes if any. This will also determine the length of any extended shutdowns. The West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude is expected to trade at $40 per barrel this week, a level last recorded in March.

The market on Monday has, however, opened with expectations as Brent crude, at the time of filing this report was up 1.32 percent at $42.85 per barrel and the WTI crude was up 1.14 percent at $40.00 per barrel.

Adedapo Adesanya is a journalist, polymath, and connoisseur of everything art. When he is not writing, he has his nose buried in one of the many books or articles he has bookmarked or simply listening to good music with a bottle of beer or wine. He supports the greatest club in the world, Manchester United F.C.

Economy

Insurance Firms Must Submit 2025 Assessment Returns by May 31—NAICOM

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NAICOM Conplaint Management Portal

By Adedapo Adesanya

The National Insurance Commission has issued new guidelines for the collection, management, and administration of the Insurance Policyholders’ Protection Fund.

In a circular issued to all insurance institutions on Tuesday, the regulator also set May 31, 2026, as the deadline for insurers to submit their assessment returns for the 2025 financial year.

Recall that on August
 5, 2025, 
President Bola Tinubu signed
 into 
law
 the 
Nigerian 
Insurance 
Industry Reform 
Act (
NIIRA
2025).


This 
landmark legislation 
repeals 
the 
Insurance 
Act 
2003, 
and
 consolidates 
related 
provisions, 
ushering 
in 
a 
modern regulatory framework. It lays a strong foundation for sustainable growth and increased investment in the country’s insurance sector.

The commission said the guidelines were issued in exercise of its powers under the 2025 Act and other existing insurance laws and regulations to provide regulatory clarity, improve guidance, and ensure ease of compliance across the industry.

According to NAICOM, the guidelines establish a comprehensive structure for the operation of the IPPF, which serves as a statutory safety net to protect insurance policyholders in the event of distress or insolvency of a licensed insurer or reinsurer. The framework also provides direction on the reimbursement of loans by insurers and reinsurers.

NAICOM stated, “The guidelines ensure regulatory clarity, guidance and ease of compliance, as it provides a comprehensive regulatory framework for the collection, management, and administration of the Fund, which serves as a statutory safety net designed to protect insurance policyholders against distress and insolvency of a licensed insurer or reinsurer, including guidance for the reimbursement of loans by an insurer or reinsurer.

“Please be informed that the IPPF Assessment Returns in respect of the year 2025 shall be submitted to the Commission not later than 31st May 2026, while subsequent submissions shall be in line with Section 4.3 of the Guideline on Insurance Policyholders Protection Fund.”

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Economy

Dangote Refinery Sells Petrol at N1,200/L as Global Oil Prices Slump

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Dangote refinery import petrol

By Adedapo Adesanya

The Dangote Refinery on Wednesday returned the petrol price to N1,200 per litre, less than 24 hours after it increased it by 5 per cent.

The private refinery had raised the ex-depot price by N75 on Tuesday, citing pressure from volatile global oil markets, but quickly brought it back to N1,200 per litre from N1,275 per litre.

The swift downward review is directly linked to a sharp drop in international crude prices. Brent crude has plunged to $95.05 per barrel, after a 13 per cent decline, while the US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude closed at $97.18, recording nearly a 14 per cent drop.

This development comes after US President Donald Trump announced a conditional two-week ceasefire with Iran, which eased fears of immediate supply disruptions in the global oil market.

“This will be a double-sided CEASEFIRE!” Trump said on social media, marking a sharp reversal from his earlier warning that “a whole civilisation will die tonight” if Iran failed to comply with US demands.

Iran’s Foreign Minister, Mr Abbas Araqchi, confirmed that the country would halt attacks provided strikes against Iran cease and transit through the Strait of Hormuz is coordinated by Iranian forces.

Despite the breakthrough, tensions remain elevated across the region, with several Gulf states reporting missile launches, drone activity, or issuing civil defence warnings.

While oil prices have fallen back below $100, they remain significantly elevated after surging by a record amount in March. Market analysts noted that regardless of how successful the ceasefire is, geopolitical risk related to the Strait of Hormuz is likely to remain elevated for the foreseeable future under the control of Iran.

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Economy

Crude Deliveries Double to Dangote Refinery in Mix of Naira, Dollar Supply

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Dangote refinery petrol

By Adedapo Adesanya

Crude oil deliveries from the Nigerian National Petroleum Company (NNPC) Limited to the Dangote Petroleum Refinery doubled in March, boosting prospects for improved fuel availability.

This was revealed by the chief executive of Dangote Industries Limited, Mr Aliko Dangote, on Tuesday, when he received the Deputy Secretary-General of the United Nations, Mrs Amina Mohammed, at the industrial complex in Ibeju-Lekki, Lagos.

While speaking on feedstock supply, Mr Dangote commended the NNPC for increasing crude deliveries to the refinery in March, noting that volumes rose to 10 cargoes—six supplied in Naira and four in Dollars—to support domestic fuel availability, according to a statement by the Refinery.

“Last month, they gave us six cargoes for Naira and four cargoes for Dollars,” he said.

Despite the improvement, Mr Dangote noted that the supply remains below the 19 cargoes required for optimal operations, with the refinery continuing to bridge the gap through imports from the United States and other African producers.

He also expressed concern over the unwillingness of international oil companies operating in Nigeria to sell to the refinery, stating that their preference for selling crude to traders forces it to repurchase at higher costs, with broader implications for the economy.

Mr Dangote added that the refinery is seeking increased access to domestically priced crude under local currency arrangements as part of efforts to moderate fuel costs and enhance long-term energy and food security across the continent.

On her part, Mrs Mohammed underscored the strategic importance of Dangote Industries Limited -particularly Dangote Fertiliser Limited—in addressing Africa’s mounting food security challenges, while calling for stronger global partnerships to scale its impact.

Mrs Mohammed said the United Nations would prioritise amplifying scalable solutions capable of mitigating the continent’s food crisis, describing Dangote’s integrated industrial model as a critical pathway.

“I think the UN’s job here is to amplify and to put visibility on the possibilities of mitigating a food security crisis, and this is one of them,” she said. “I hope that when we go back, we can continue to engage partners and countries that should collaborate with Dangote Industries.”

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