Economy
Crude Oil Slides Further on China’s COVID, Global Economy Worries
By Adedapo Adesanya
The crude oil continued a bleeding start to the year as it fell by as much as 5 per cent on Wednesday, weighed down by demand concerns stemming from the state of the global economy and rising COVID cases in China.
Brent futures fell by $4.07 or 4.9 per cent to $78.03 a barrel as the United States West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude dropped $3.80 or 4.9 per cent, to $73.13 per barrel.
China’s COVID-19 cases continued to drag on oil prices as reports emerged that patients are being forced to wait in beds outside entrances and along corridors as hospitals continue to struggle with rising COVID-19 infections.
After a long-held zero-COVID policy, China has relaxed many of its strict coronavirus rules, and the disease has been spreading rapidly across the country.
This has been pegged to affect oil demand in the world’s largest oil importer.
Data from China showed that while no new variant has been found there, the country has under-represented how many people have died in its recent rapidly spreading outbreak, World Health Organisation (WHO) officials said.
The WHO says it is concerned about “risk to life” in China amid a surge in COVID cases, while in Europe and the US, the Omicron subvariant XBB.1.5 is spreading rapidly.
The state of the global economy and central bank rate hikes also weighed on crude prices.
In the world’s largest economy, US manufacturing contracted further in December, dropping for a second straight month to 48.4 points from 49.0 points in November, in the weakest reading since May 2020, the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) said.
Also, an improvement in jobs has raised concerns that the US Federal Reserve would use this as a rationale to keep rates higher for longer.
The Chinese government increased export quotas for refined oil products in the first batch for 2023, signalling expectations of poor domestic demand.
Top oil exporter Saudi Arabia could cut prices for its flagship Arab Light crude grade to Asia in February, having been set at a 10-month low for this month, as concerns about oversupply remain.
By Adedapo Adesanya
The NASD Over-the-Counter (OTC) Securities Exchange ended the last trading session of the week on a bearish note with a 0.38 per cent loss on Friday.
The decline reported by unlisted stocks was influenced by FrieslandCampina Wamco Nigeria Plc and Central Securities Clearing Systems (CSCS) Plc.
FrieslandCampina shed 91 Kobo yesterday to close at N80.09 per unit versus Thursday’s closing price of N81.00 per unit, as CSCS Plc depreciated by 49 Kobo to sell at N14.86 per share, in contrast to the previous day’s N15.35 per share.
The duo overshadowed the gains posted CitiTrust Plc and Afriland Properties Plc, with the former rising by 25 Kobo to N13.50 per share from N13.25 per share, and the latter growing by 7 Kobo to N2.16 per unit from N2.09 per unit.
At the close of trades, the market capitalisation of the bourse decreased by N3.88 billion to N1.025 trillion from N1.029 billion, while the NASD Unlisted Securities Index (NSI) went down by 2.80 points to 741.97 points from 743.84 points.
There was a rise in the volume of securities traded at the bourse yesterday by 1,238.5 per cent to 318.5 million units from the 23.8 million units transacted a day earlier, as the value of shares traded at the session ballooned by 4,146.7 per cent to N1.3 billion from the N31.3 million posted on Thursday, with the number of deals increasing by 300 per cent to 36 deals from the nine deals carried out in the preceding session.
Geo-Fluids Plc remained the most traded stock by volume (year-to-date) with 801.1 million units valued at N1.2 billion, UBN Property Plc was in second place with 365.8 units valued at N309.5 million, and Industrial and General Insurance (IGI) Plc was in third place with 91.2 million units worth N6.7 million.
VFD Group Plc ended the session as the most traded stock by value (year-to-date) with 10.3 million units worth N2.3 billion, Geo-Fluids Plc was second with 801.1 million units worth N1.2 billion, and UBN Property Plc was in third place with 365.8 million units valued at N309.5 million.
By Adedapo Adesanya
The oil market improved by more than 1 per cent on Friday to record its second-straight week of gains, as supplies tightened in some parts of the world and US inflation data indicated price rises were slowing.
Brent futures grew by $1.29 or 1.6 per cent to $79.89 a barrel, as the US West Texas Intermediate crude (WTI) increased by $1.30 or 1.8 per cent to $75.67 a barrel.
Data on Friday showed the US Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) index, the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge, rose 0.3 per cent in February on a monthly basis compared with a 0.6 per cent rise in January.
On a 12-month basis, core PCE increased 4.6 per cent, a slight deceleration from the level in January. Including food and energy, headline PCE rose 0.3 per cent monthly and 5 per cent annually, compared with 0.6 per cent and 5.3 per cent in January.
The softer-than-expected data came with monthly energy prices in the world’s largest economy decreasing by 0.4 per cent while food prices went up by 0.2 per cent, with goods prices climbing 0.2 per cent and services increasing 0.3 per cent.
In other data from the report, personal income rose 0.3 per cent, slightly above the 0.2 per cent estimate. Consumer spending climbed 0.2 per cent, compared with the 0.3 per cent estimate.
This points to the fact that inflation and supported oil prices could point to less aggressive interest rate hikes from the US central bank, lifting investor demand for risk assets like oil.
Oil prices were also buoyed after producers shut in or reduced output at several oilfields in the semi-autonomous Kurdistan region of northern Iraq following a halt to the northern export pipeline.
Since Saturday, Iraq has been forced to halt around 450,000 barrels per day of crude exports, or half a per cent of global oil supply, from the Kurdistan region (KRI) through a pipeline that runs from its northern Kirkuk oil fields to the Turkish port of Ceyhan.
Turkey stopped pumping Iraqi crude from the pipeline after Iraq won an arbitration case in which it said Turkey had violated a joint agreement by allowing the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) to export oil to Ceyhan without Iraq’s consent.
The Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies (OPEC+) led by Russia are likely to stick to their existing output deal at a meeting on Monday.
By Adedapo Adesanya
The Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+) will likely stick to its existing deal to cut oil output at a meeting on Monday, April 3.
According to Reuters, this was said disclosed by five delegates from the producer group after oil prices recovered following a drop to 15-month lows due to banking fears and demand worries.
Brent crude has recovered towards $80 a barrel after falling to near $70 on March 20 as fears ease about a global banking crisis and as a halt in exports from Iraq’s Kurdistan region curbs supplies.
OPEC+ is due to hold a virtual meeting of its ministerial monitoring panel, which includes Russia and Saudi Arabia, on Monday.
The consensus was that Kurdistan curbs and recent price drops were not sufficiently important to affect the overall OPEC+ policy path for 2023.
Kurdistan’s crude oil exports – around 400,000 barrels per day shipped through an Iraqi-Turkey pipeline to Ceyhan and then on tankers to the international markets – were halted late last week by the federal government of Iraq.
Last week, the International Chamber of Commerce ruled in favour of Iraq against Turkey in a dispute over crude flows from Kurdistan. Iraq had argued that Turkey shouldn’t allow Kurdish oil exports via the Iraq-Turkey pipeline and Ceyhan without approval from the federal government of Iraq.
Talks between officials from Kurdistan and from the Iraq federal government have failed in recent days, but they are set to continue next week.
Three other OPEC+ delegates also told Reuters that any policy changes were unlikely on Monday. After those talks, the next full OPEC+ meeting is not until June.
Last November, OPEC+ reduced its output target by 2 million barrels per day – the largest cut since the early days of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020. The same reduction applies for the whole of 2023.
Saudi Arabia’s energy minister, Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman, has said OPEC+ will stick to the reduced target until the end of the year.
