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Crude Oil Trades Mixed as Traders Continue to Weigh OPEC+ Supply Hike

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By Adedapo Adesanya

Crude oil was steadied on Tuesday as investors weighed a smaller-than-expected increase to output by the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+) in November against signs of a potential supply glut.

Brent crude was down by 2 cents or 0.03 per cent to $65.45 a barrel, and the US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude was up by 4 cents or 0.06 per cent to $61.73 per barrel.

The market continued to weigh OPEC+’s decision to increase collective oil production by 137,000 barrels per day, starting in November.

The move was in contrast to market expectations for a more aggressive increase, a sign that the group remains cautious in light of predictions for a global supply surplus in the fourth quarter as well as next year.

Market sentiment remains subdued, in particular after Saudi Arabia opted to keep the official selling price of its flagship crude to Asia unchanged, defying analyst expectations for an increase while the United Arab Emirates (UAE) set the November official selling price of its benchmark Murban crude at $70.22 a barrel, up from October’s official selling price of $70.10.

On the demand side, India’s fuel demand rose 7 per cent year-on-year in September.

The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) said on Tuesday that the country’s oil production is expected to hit a larger record of 13.53 million barrels per day this year, up from a prior forecast of 13.44 million barrels per day.

Global oil inventories are also expected to rise through next year as non-OPEC+ countries lead oil output growth, according to the EIA, putting significant downward pressure on commodity prices in the months ahead.

On its part, JPMorgan said global oil inventories, including crude stored on water, have risen every week in September, adding 123 million barrels during the month.

The American Petroleum Institute (API) estimated that crude oil inventories in the US increased by 2.780 million barrels in the week ending October 3. So far this year, net crude oil inventories have rose by just 557,000 barrels.

Gasoline (petrol) inventories fell by 1.245 million barrels in the week ending October 3, after gaining 1.3 million barrels in the week prior and distillate inventories also fell in the reporting period, losing 1.822 million barrels following the week prior’s 3.003-million-barrel gain.

Th official data from the US EIA will be due later on Wednesday.

Also, the market continue to watch developments between Russia and Ukraine which is affecting energy assets and creating uncertainty over Russian crude supply.

Adedapo Adesanya is a journalist, polymath, and connoisseur of everything art. When he is not writing, he has his nose buried in one of the many books or articles he has bookmarked or simply listening to good music with a bottle of beer or wine. He supports the greatest club in the world, Manchester United F.C.

Economy

FG Notes Concerns Around Capital Gains Tax by Investors

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By Aduragbemi Omiyale

The federal government has promised to engage capital market stakeholders on the implementation of the controversial capital gains tax.

The Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister for the Economy, Mr Wale Edun, said the government was aware of the concerns raised by capital market investors on the policy.

Speaking at the closing gong ceremony to commemorate the listing of the Ministry of Finance Incorporated (MOFI) Real Estate Investment Fund (MREIF) Series 2 at the Nigerian Exchange (NGX) Limited on Tuesday, the Minister assured of balanced capital gains tax outcomes.

“We have noted the concerns around capital gains tax and will continue to engage with the capital market to ensure any decisions deliver optimal outcomes for both Nigerians and the market,” he said.

His reaction was in response to a call by the chief executive of the NGX Group Plc, Mr Temi Popoola, for balanced outcomes in the implementation of the tax.

“The capital market is not only a platform for attracting investment but also a tool for creating wealth for Nigerians.

“Policies such as the capital gains tax must be carefully designed to balance government revenue objectives with investor confidence and market growth.

“NGX Group remains committed to supporting the Renewed Hope Agenda by channelling private capital into initiatives that deliver sustainable, long-term impact,” Mr Popoola stated.

Business Post reports that the MREIF Series 2 was listed on the exchange yesterday at N100 per unit, allowing low-income earners to participate in savings and investment, leveraging local resources to grow our economy, especially in the housing sector.

The listing took place against the backdrop of cautious trading in the equities market, as investors recalibrate portfolios in response to geopolitical tensions arising from the US–Nigeria diplomatic standoff, the proposed CGT, year-end portfolio rebalancing, and expectations of window-dressing by institutional players.

While liquidity remains robust, analysts emphasize that aligning fiscal policy with investor expectations is critical to sustaining confidence and deepening long-term market participation.

The chief executive of NGX Limited, Mr Jude Chiemeka, said MREIF demonstrates how the capital market can deliver practical solutions to national challenges:

“By channelling private capital into housing, we are creating opportunities for long-term investment and wealth creation while addressing Nigeria’s housing deficit,” he stated.

On his part, the chief executive of MOFI, Mr Armstrong Ume Takang, said, “MREIF provides long-term, low-cost mortgage financing to make homeownership a reality for millions of Nigerians, stimulating local economies across the housing value chain.”

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Economy

Senate Okays Tinubu’s N1.15tn Domestic Loan for 2025 Budget Deficit

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By Adedapo Adesanya

The Senate has approved President Bola Tinubu’s request to raise N1.15 trillion from the domestic debt market to cover the deficit in the country’s 2025 budget.

The approval followed the adoption of a report by the Senate Committee on Local and Foreign Debt during plenary on Wednesday.

The committee noted that the 2025 Appropriation Act provides for a total expenditure of N59.99 trillion, an increase of N5.25 trillion over the initial N54.74 trillion proposed by the Executive.

This expansion created a total budget deficit of N14.10 trillion, of which N12.95 trillion had already been approved for borrowing, leaving an unfunded deficit of approximately N1.15 trillion (N1,147,462,863,321).

Last week (November 4), President Tinubu formally wrote to the lawmakers requesting a fresh N1.15 trillion in borrowing for the 2025 fiscal year, with a month left for the year to end.

He stated that it would bridge the funding gap and ensure full implementation of government programs and projects under the 2025 fiscal plan.

In a related development, a motion by Mr Abdul Ningi was adopted, directing the Senate Committee on Appropriations to intensify oversight to ensure that the borrowed funds are properly implemented and used strictly for their intended purposes.

This follows approval by the Senate and the House of Representatives approved to obtain $2.347 billion in fresh foreign loans, including a $500 million debut Sovereign Sukuk, to finance part of the 2025 budget deficit and refinance Nigeria’s maturing Eurobonds.

Last week, the $2.25 billion Eurobond was oversubscribed by 470 per cent with investors taking advantage of positive signals in the Nigerian economy.

Regardless of this, there is mounting public concern over Nigeria’s rising debt stock, which has climbed to over N152.40 trillion ($99 billion) as of mid-2025, according to figures from the Debt Management Office (DMO).

The federal government alone accounts for over 92 per cent of Nigeria’s public debt at N141.08 trillion, with N64.49 trillion as external debt and N76.59 trillion as local debt. States account for 7.4 per cent at N11.32 trillion as per the debt office.

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Economy

Senate Orders NNPC to Refund Unaccounted N210trn to Federation Account

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By Adedapo Adesanya

The Senate has told the Nigerian National Petroleum Company (NNPC) Limited to return N210 trillion in outstanding payments to the Federation Account, as it rejected the explanations provided by the state oil firm.

The conclusion was reached on Wednesday as a committee investigating the issue noted that the money, which had not been accounted for, must be refunded to the Federation Account by the company.

The Senate Committee on Public Accounts chaired by Mr Aliyu Wadada, which has been on the probe for months, took the decision on Tuesday after the Group Chief Executive Officer (GCEO) of the NNPC, Mr Bashir Bayo Ojulari, failed to turn up at its resumed sitting at the National Assembly.

The session was called to give the NNPC Limited the opportunity to make clarifications on the answers the company provided to the 19 questions the panel asked the firm about the N210 trillion.

Following a review of the operations of the state owned oil firm from 2017-2023, the committee sighted the unexplained transaction, totaling N103 trillion (accrued expenses) and N107 trillion (receivables) in the audited financial statements of the firm, totalling N210 trillion thereby prompting it to raise the queries.

After weeks of back-and-forth between the committee and the NNPC, the NNPC  eventually responded to the 19 questions.

However, at a resumed session, Mr Wadada frowned at the absence of Mr Ojulari, whom the committee said gave no reasons for staying away, consequently rejected the explanations.

The Chairman of the committee while speaking on the panel’s findings, said the responses were not only unsatisfactory, but were also contradictory.

“NNPC claimed N103 trillion as accrued expenses and N107 trillion as receivables -amounting to N210 trillion. On question eight, NNPC’s explanation on the N107 trillion receivables -equivalent to about $117 billion -contradicts available facts and evidence provided by NNPC itself. The committee is duty-bound to reject this,” he stated.

Mr Wadada further questioned how the firm could pay N103 trillion in Cash Calls to Joint Venture (JV) partners in 2023 alone, despite generating only N24 trillion in crude revenue between 2017 and 2022.

“Cash Call arrangements were abolished in 2016 under the President Muhammadu Buhari administration. How can NNPC claim to have paid N103 trillion in one year, when it only generated N24 trillion in revenue over five years? Where did NNPC get that money?

“As far as this committee is concerned, that figure is unjustifiable and unacceptable. The N103 trillion must be returned to the Treasury. This will be concluded when the NNPC appears before us,” he stated.

The committee said it would have been better for the current management of the NNPC to admit that it encountered challenges in explaining what happened to the funds than giving contradictory answers to the questions.

“If the present management of NNPC is finding it difficult to provide acceptable answers, it is better they say so. The committee will not hesitate to subpoena former officials of NNPC and NAPIMS,” Mr Wadada added.

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