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Crude Prices to Average $74 Per Barrel in 2022—World Bank

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crude oil prices

By Adedapo Adesanya

The World Bank in its latest Commodity Markets Outlook says crude prices will average $74 per barrel next year.

Crude oil prices (an average of Brent, WTI and Dubai) are expected to average $70 in 2021, an increase of 70 per cent and are projected to be $74 a barrel in 2022 as oil demand strengthens and reaches pre-pandemic levels.

The use of crude oil as a substitute for natural gas presents a major upside risk to the demand outlook, although higher energy prices may start to weigh on global growth.

This is happening as energy prices soared in the third quarter of 2021 and are expected to remain elevated in 2022.

The Bretton Wood institution said that the rise is adding to global inflationary pressures and could shift economic growth to energy-exporting countries from energy-importing ones.

The report said that energy prices—expected to average more than 80 per cent higher in 2021 compared to last year—will remain at high levels in 2022 but will start to decline in the second half of the year as supply constraints ease.

Non-energy prices, including agriculture and metals, are projected to decrease in 2022, following strong gains this year.

“The surge in energy prices poses significant near-term risks to global inflation and, if sustained, could also weigh on growth in energy-importing countries,” said Mr Ayhan Kose, Chief Economist and Director of the World Bank’s Prospects Group, which produces the Outlook report.

“The sharp rebound in commodity prices is turning out to be more pronounced than previously projected. Recent volatility in prices may complicate policy choices as countries recover from last year’s global recession,” he added.

In 2021, some commodity prices rose to or exceeded levels not seen since the spike of 2011.

For example, natural gas and coal prices reached record highs amid supply constraints and rebounding demand for electricity, although they are expected to decline in 2022 as demand eases and supply improves.

However, additional price spikes may occur in the near term amid very low inventories and persistent supply bottlenecks.

As global growth softens and supply disruptions are resolved, metal prices are forecast to fall 5 per cent in 2022, after rising by an estimated 48 per cent in 2021.

Following a projected 22 per cent increase in 2021, agricultural prices are expected to decline modestly next year as supply conditions improve and energy prices stabilize.

“High natural gas and coal prices are impacting the production of other commodities and pose an upside risk to price forecasts,” said Mr John Baffes, Senior Economist in the World Bank’s Prospects Group.

“Fertilizer production has been curtailed by higher natural gas and coal prices, and higher fertilizer prices have been pushing up input costs for key food crops. The production of some metals such as aluminium and zinc has been reduced due to high energy costs as well.”

The institution then called on countries to benefit from accelerating the installation of renewable energy and reducing their dependency on fossil fuels.

The report notes that forecasts are subject to substantial risks—including adverse weather, the uneven COVID-19 recovery, the threat of more outbreaks, supply-chain disruptions, and environmental policies.

Furthermore, higher food prices, along with the recent spike in energy costs, are pushing food-price inflation up and raising food-security concerns in several developing economies, it warned.

Adedapo Adesanya is a journalist, polymath, and connoisseur of everything art. When he is not writing, he has his nose buried in one of the many books or articles he has bookmarked or simply listening to good music with a bottle of beer or wine. He supports the greatest club in the world, Manchester United F.C.

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Economy

Nigeria to Export New Crude Grade Cawthorne in March

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Cawthorne crude oil

By Adedapo Adesanya

The Nigerian National Petroleum Company (NNPC) Limited is set to commence export of a new light, sweet crude grade known as Cawthorne from March 2026.

According to a report by Reuters, an NNPC spokesperson confirmed the development, describing it as part of efforts to increase output and consolidate Nigeria’s recent recovery in crude oil production.

The move aligns with Nigeria’s broader strategy to boost production after years of constraints caused by pipeline vandalism, crude theft, and unrest in oil-producing regions.

This follows the launch of two other new grades, Obodo in 2025 and Utapate in 2024, Nigeria, whic,h as Africa’s top oil exporter, seeks to strengthen its standing within the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+)

Cawthorne crude is scheduled for export in the third week of March and has an API gravity of 36.4, making it similar in quality to Nigeria’s Bonny Light, which is prized for high petrol and diesel yields.

According to Reuters, citing a trading source, the state oil national company issued a tender last week for cargo loading between March 24 and 25.

Analysts at Kpler noted that the new grade is expected to be exported via the Floating Storage and Offloading (FSO) vessel Cawthorne, which has a storage capacity of about 2.2 million barrels. The vessel is designed to enhance transportation and production from Oil Mining Lease (OML) 18 and nearby assets in the Eastern Niger Delta.

Kpler estimates that, based on storage capacity, Cawthorne could increase Nigeria’s crude and condensate output from roughly 1.65 million barrels per day to around 1.7 million barrels per day for the remainder of the year.

Nigeria’s crude oil production recently dropped from the OPEC+ quota of 1.5 million barrels per day, with output at 1.48 million barrels per day recorded in January, according to OPEC data.

Beyond increasing Nigeria’s crude offerings to the international market, the introduction of Cawthorne could also attract buyers seeking specific light, sweet crude qualities, buoy foreign exchange earnings, which would help strengthen government revenue and ease borrowing needs.

New crude grades are typically differentiated by sulfur content, API gravity, and production source, enabling producers to target specific refinery configurations and market segments.

In November 2024, NNPC officially launched the Utapate crude oil blend in the international market, describing it as a milestone for Nigeria’s export profile.

Earlier in July 2024, NNPC and its partner, Sterling Oil Exploration & Energy Production Company (SEEPCO), lifted the first 950,000-barrel cargo of Utapate crude, which was shipped to Spain.

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Economy

Moniepoint Research Shows Diminishing Role of Cash in Nightlife Payments

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Moniepoint DreamDevs Initiative

By Modupe Gbadeyanka

A new report released by Africa’s leading all-in-one financial ecosystem, Moniepoint Incorporated, has revealed that the use of cash for financial transactions is gradually dying due to security concerns.

The study, which looked into transaction data of over 27,000 clubs, bars, and lounges, showed that bank transfers dominated, followed closely by card payments, with cash actively discouraged. It was observed that transfers outpace card payments by nearly 2 million transactions during peak nighttime hours across its network.

In the research titled The Business of Community Nightlife in Nigeria, findings provided a rare, data-driven look into the country’s informal night economy.

While high-end Detty December venues grabbed headlines with daily revenues of N360 million and table prices reaching N1.2 million, Moniepoint’s study shifted the spotlight to the “community nightlife” where roadside bars, suya spots, and neighbourhood joints form the bedrock of social life for millions of Nigerians.

One of the study’s most operationally significant findings concerns the timing of spending. Nightlife in Nigeria runs late, but economically, the night is decided early.

Transaction volumes begin climbing sharply from 8 pm, peak before midnight, and then decline steadily even as venues remain full. By the time the night is at its longest, purchasing activity has already wound down.

However, for bar operators, this has clear practical implications – the most critical hours for staffing, stocking, vendor payment and cash flow management are the earliest hours of the day between midnight and 6 am.

The report further underscores the sector’s role in employment, noting that local bars typically expand their workforce by 30-50 per cent on peak nights. Conservative estimates suggest that at least 54,000 people are engaged in nightlife labour every night across Nigeria.

It was also observed that the most common transaction narrations from the data sourced – “food”, “pay”, “sent”, “pos”, “cash” – reflect the full breadth of nightlife spending: street food, club entry, lounge tabs, transport, and afterparties. Digital payments have gained huge traction in Nigeria’s social space.

While alcohol remains a key revenue driver, the data shows that food is the quiet stabiliser of Nigeria’s night economy, particularly in local and informal settings. In several neighbourhood venues, bottled water and meals outsell beer and spirits, especially early in the evening.

Lagos leads in sheer concentration of nightlife establishments, with 4,856 bars, clubs, and lounges on the Moniepoint network. FCT follows with 2,515, then Rivers (2,362), Delta (1,930), and Edo (1,574).

Katsina leads the country in nighttime food truck payment value, with vendors pulling in over N130 million in the last 12 months. Kwara State leads in transaction count. Nigeria’s nightlife economy is distributed, not overly elitist.

On the lending side, the report noted that a significant share of loan requests from bar and lounge operators is directed toward renovations, furniture, lighting, and sound systems, showing that investments are intended to attract and retain customers in a competitive sector where ambience plays a decisive role.

Commenting on the report, the chief executive of Moniepoint, Mr Tosin Eniolorunda, said, “Nigeria’s local bars and night-time operators are not peripheral to the economy; they are a critical part of its architecture. We see a substantial and sustained economic sector that employs hundreds of thousands of Nigerians every night and deserves the same attention we give to agriculture, healthcare, and retail.

“Our goal is to make sure every one of those businesses has the tools to grow. From giving credit to finance renovations and sound systems to providing same-day settlement that allows vendors to restock and with tools like Moniebook that power inventory management and reconciliation, Moniepoint is ensuring that this vital artery of the nation’s economy remains viable and empowering.”

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Economy

CBN Reduces Interest Rate by 50 Basis Points to 26.50%

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African central banks Interest Rate Cut

By Adedapo Adesanya

The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has cut the interest rate by 50 basis points to 26.50 per cent from 27 per cent.

Nigeria’s apex bank announced this during its two-day 304th Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting, which concluded on Tuesday in Abuja.

This comes after the country’s interest rate cooled in January to 15.10 per cent from 15.15 per cent, according to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), strengthening the case for a reduction.

The CBN Governor, Mr Yemi Cardoso, said all members of the MPC unanimously agreed upon the decision.

“The committee decided to reduce the monetary policy rate by 50 basis points to 26.50 per cent,” he said.

Mr Cardoso stated that the liquidity ratio was maintained at 30 per cent, and the standing facilities corridor was adjusted to +50 to -450 basis points around the monetary policy rate.

He said the committee retained the Cash Reserve Ratio (CRR) at 45 per cent for commercial banks and 16 per cent for merchant banks, while the 75 per cent CRR on non-TSA public sector deposits was equally maintained.

The CBN uses the MPR, which works as the benchmark interest rate, to manage inflation, macroeconomic stability, and liquidity.

Last November, the MPC retained the Monetary Policy Rate (MPR) at 27.00 per cent. The last time the apex bank cut interest rates was in September last year, to 27 per cent from 27.50 per cent after a series of easing in inflation.

Market analysts had argued for higher interest cuts due to results seen in the CBN’s inflation targeting framework. Meanwhile, some say the 50 basis points reduction will offer a temporary reprieve as inflation heads for a single-digit target in the coming months.

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