Economy
Currency Slump in West Africa Triggers Demand for Dollar Assets
By Aduragbemi Omiyale
The Head of Custody Services for RMB West Africa, Mr Abiodun Adebimpe, has attributed an increase in the demand for Dollar assets in West Africa to a slump in the currencies of countries in the region.
In recent times, most West African currencies, such as the Nigerian Naira (NGN) and the Ghanaian Cedis (GHC), have significantly weakened against the United States currency.
This has been blamed on the Russian-Ukraine war and the lingering impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, as the region relies heavily on importation.
The import-dependent nature of most West African markets implies huge demand for foreign exchange to pay import bills, and due to declining external reserves, the central banks are not able to promptly and adequately meet these demands, forcing businesses and investors to look for dollar assets to mitigate the damage.
Also, most West African economies are commodity-driven, and any development within the global economy that affects the supply and/or demand of commodities imports and exports portends significant currency weakening effects on the economies.
Mr Adebimpe noted in an opinion piece that there is also massive fiscal debt overhang in most West African markets, stressing that one of the effects is the need to borrow from bilateral and multilateral global lenders who demand deliberate local currency weakening by the local authorities by adjusting their official exchange rates accordingly to fight the demand for foreign currencies.
According to him, weaker local currencies make it more expensive and less attractive to convert to hard currencies.
He stated that these factors together have conspired to weaken West African currencies, and the outlook remains negative in short to medium term.
The loss of confidence in the local currencies means that they are no longer considered a stable store of value, he added.
Mr Adebimpe noted that these issues had pushed businesses and investors to hedge themselves and protect the value of their earnings and holdings in fast-depreciating local currencies.
According to him, investments in dollar-denominated securities such as Eurobonds, dollar and other hard currency equities, debt instruments in the form of government and corporate bonds, as well as interest-bearing US treasury instruments, have become the preferred holdings for investors. And demand is expected to grow.
However, he disclosed that most West African governments have started to adjust their official exchange rates and, in some cases, borrow in United States Dollars to shore up their external reserves though it may take some time to materialise.
But he stressed that there is a risk the Naira will continue to depreciate in the next few months because of the major difficulties in turning around through economic reforms in an economy of its size, adding that the expectation of weaker crude oil and natural gas prices will likely continue to pressure the currency.
“There is also the challenge of remittances flow to Nigeria: many companies are no longer supporting these transactions. Most importantly, tech investments which represented a significant increase in foreign direct investments (FDI), have all but reduced drastically.
“As a result of turbulent economic conditions, businesses are increasingly turning to advisors with extensive global know-how for expert advice,” he said.
By Adedapo Adesanya
The NASD Over-the-Counter (OTC) Securities Exchange closed the Friday session on March 17 in the positive territory as three stocks pushed the market up by 0.36 per cent.
The three price gainers were led by Niger Delta Exploration and Production (NDEP) Plc, which added N15.00 to move up to N205.00 per unit from N190.00 per unit.
FrieslandCampina Wamco Nigeria Plc appreciated during the trading day by N1.11 to close at N75.11 per share compared with the previous day’s value of N74.00 per share, while Afriland Properties Plc went up by 2 Kobo to settle at N2.09 per unit versus Thursday’s value of N2.07 per unit.
The trio pushed down the N4.00 lost by 11 Plc yesterday, as the stock price of the energy firm ended at N150.00 per share, in contrast to the preceding day’s N154.00 per share.
At the close of business, the market capitalisation of the NASD OTC exchange rose by N3.48 billion to close the day at N961.12 billion compared with the preceding day’s N957.64 billion.
In the same vein, the NASD Unlisted Securities Index (NSI) appreciated by 2.65 points to wrap the session at 731.44 points compared with 728.79 points of the previous session.
Yesterday, there was a jump in the volume of securities traded by 2,115.1 per cent to 739,755 units from 33,396 million units, the value of transactions increased by 15,683.7 per cent to N30.6 million from N193,846, and the number of deals jumped by 150 per cent to 10 deals from the four deals carried out a day earlier.
Geo-Fluids Plc remained the most traded stock by volume (year-to-date) by trading 425.2 million units valued at N448.5 million, UBN Property Plc was in second place for selling 365.8 units worth N309.5 million, and NRMC Plc was in third place for exchanging 25.0 million units valued at N137.5 million.
On a year-to-date basis by value, VFD Group Plc was on top of the chart after trading 7.3 million units worth N1.7 billion, trailed by Geo-Fluids Plc with 425.2 million units worth N448.5 million, and UBN Property Plc with 365.8 million units valued at N309.5 million.
By Adedapo Adesanya
The Naira appreciated against the United States currency in the Peer-to-Peer (P2P), the black market and the Investors and Exporters (I&E) windows of the foreign exchange (FX) window on Friday, March 17.
The Naira gained N2 against the US Dollar during the session as it closed at N754/$1, in contrast to the previous session’s value of N756/$1.
In the parallel market, the domestic currency improved its value by N1 against the American Dollar on Friday to quote at N747/$1 compared with Thursday’s exchange rate of N748/$1.
It was a similar outcome for the Nigerian currency at the I&E segment of the market as it closed stronger against the greenback by 17 Kobo or 0.04 per cent to sell at N461.83/$1 versus the N462.00/$1 it was quoted at the previous session.
This happened as there was a 10.2 per cent or $9.97 million in the value of forex transactions recorded during the session to $87.81 million from the $97.78 million reported a day earlier.
In the interbank segment of the market, the Naira witnessed no movement against the Pound Sterling and the Euro, closing at N556.45/£1 and N487.99/€1, respectively.
In the cryptocurrency market, Bitcoin (BTC) moved to a fresh nine-month high on Friday at above the $27,000 level. The surge followed the US Federal Reserve’s decision to backstop embattled banks to a record of $152.9 billion.
BTC recorded a 6.0 per cent rise to trade at $27,546.42, Ethereum (ETH) improved by 5.8 per cent to sell at $1,813.37, Solana (SOL) chalked up 11.9 per cent to quote at $22.48, Litecoin (LTC) went up by 6.4 per cent to trade at $86.62, and Cardano (ADA) rose by 6.2 per cent to trade at $0.3523.
Further, Dogecoin (DOGE) made a 4.8 per cent appreciation to quote at $0.0776, Ripple (XRP) recorded a 3.9 per cent gain to settle at $0.3843, and Binance Coin (BNB) added 3.8 per cent to sell for $344.22, while the US Dollar Tether (USDT) and Binance USD (BUSD) traded at $1.00 each.
By Adedapo Adesanya
The oil market settled lower on Friday, reversing early gains of more than $1 a barrel as banking sector fears caused both benchmarks to reach their biggest weekly declines in months.
Brent crude futures lost $1.73 or 2.3 per cent to close at $72.97 per barrel, and the US West Texas Intermediate crude fell by $1.61 or 2.4 per cent to settle at $66.74 per barrel.
Brent fell nearly by 12 per cent in the week, its biggest weekly fall since December, and on its part, WTI futures fell 13 per cent, its biggest since last April.
The market has remained jittery following the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) and Signature Bank and with trouble at Credit Suisse and First Republic Bank.
The latest help went to First Republic Bank, which was rescued by a group of major US lenders, easing worries about the current banking turmoil.
The news calmed the markets, which were on edge over a potential banking crisis following the collapse of two US banks and the storm at Credit Suisse over the past week.
The bank is set to receive a $30 billion lifeline from a group of America’s largest banks, including JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Wells Fargo, Citigroup, and Truist.
Investors are now awaiting the Federal Reserve’s rate decision next week. They widely expect the US central bank to raise rates by 25 basis points.
Analysts still expect constrained global supply to support oil prices in the foreseeable future.
Members of the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+) attributed this week’s price weakness to financial drivers rather than any supply and demand imbalance, adding that they expected the market to stabilise.
Saudi Arabia and Russia, in a meeting on Thursday, affirmed their commitment to OPEC+’s decision last October to cut production targets by two million barrels per day until the end of 2023.
This comes ahead of an OPEC+ monitoring panel meeting that is due to meet on April 3.
There are also expectations that China’s demand recovery will continue to support prices, with US crude exports to China in March heading towards their highest in nearly two and a half years.
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