By Adedapo Adesanya

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has downgraded Nigeria’s 2026 growth forecast to 4.1 per cent due to the ripple effect of the Middle East war.

The revision was announced at the IMF and World Bank Spring Meetings in Washington, D.C., where officials warned that war-related energy and supply shocks are undercutting recovery across the region.

IMF Chief Economist, Mr Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, said the downgrade reflects broader pressures facing energy-importing countries.

“On Sub-Saharan Africa, we are seeing some downgrade of growth, and we are seeing some uptick in inflation in a number of countries in the region,” Mr Gourinchas noted.

“The impact is very much along the lines of what we see more broadly — for a lot of the countries, especially the ones that are energy importers,” he added.

He added that the global lender is “following with a number of countries what their needs may be in the current environment” and coordinating with the International Energy Agency and the World Bank on energy market disruptions.

Speaking further, the Chief of the IMF Research Department’s World Economic Studies Division, Ms Denz Igan, said the 0.3 percentage point cut reflects competing pressures.

“War-related higher fuel and fertiliser prices and higher shipping costs are going to weigh on non-oil activity in Nigeria,” Ms Igan said. “There’s some offset coming from higher oil prices, but the net balance is weaker growth in 2026, with some recovery built in for 2027.”

The IMF also projects that median inflation in Sub-Saharan Africa will rise from 3.4 per cent in 2025 to 5 per cent in 2026, driven by high oil and fertiliser prices, potential fuel shortages, and rising costs.

For Nigeria, she said, a tight monetary policy will be “crucial to achieve the inflation target of the central bank.”

The IMF noted that bilateral aid to Sub-Saharan Africa has fallen by 16 per cent to 20 per cent in 2025, removing a key buffer just as commodity and shipping costs spike.

It said assuming that the ongoing conflict remains limited in duration and scope, global growth is projected to slow to 3.1 per cent in 2026 and 3.2 per cent in 2027.

Global headline inflation is projected to rise modestly in 2026 before resuming its decline in 2027. Slowdown in growth and an increase in inflation are expected to be particularly pronounced in emerging market and developing economies.

The Bretton Woods institution said global inflation is expected to tick up in 2026 and resume its decline in 2027. Pressures are concentrated in emerging markets and developing economies, especially commodity importers with preexisting vulnerabilities. Risks are decisively on the downside.

By Adedapo Adesanya

Former Kaduna Governor Nasir Ahmad El-Rufai has been granted bail in the ongoing corruption case filed by the Independent Corrupt Practices and Other Related Offences Commission (ICPC).

However, Mr El-Rufai will remain in ICPC custody until he fulfils all the bail conditions set by the court.

The development was confirmed by his son, Mr Bello El-Rufai, shortly after the ruling.

This comes amid separate proceedings at the Kaduna State High Court, where the ICPC recently amended its charges against the former governor. Mr El-Rufai has pleaded not guilty to the allegations.

The chieftain of the opposition African Democratic Congress (ADC) was arraigned by the ICPC over charges related to alleged corruption and abuse of office during his tenure in the North-Western state from 2015 to 2023. Allegations ranging from abuse of office and fraud to intent to commit fraud and conferring undue advantage were levied against the politician.

The commission disclosed that both charges were instituted on March 18, 2026, as part of its ongoing efforts to enforce accountability and combat corruption.

The scrutiny of Mr El-Rufai by the ICPC follows the report of the Kaduna State House of Assembly’s ad hoc committee constituted in 2024 to investigate finances, loans and contracts awarded between 2015 and 2023 under his eight-year administration of the state.

Presenting the committee’s report during plenary last year, the committee chairman, Mr Henry Zacharia, alleged that most of the loans obtained by the El-Rufai administration within the eight years were not utilised for the purposes for which they were secured.

While receiving the report, the Speaker of the House, Mr Yusuf Dahiru Leman, alleged that about N423 billion was siphoned under the El-Rufai administration, leaving Kaduna State with heavy financial liabilities and a rising debt profile.

The committee recommended the investigation and prosecution of the former governor and several members of his cabinet over alleged abuse of office, award of contracts without due process, diversion of public funds, money laundering and reckless borrowing.

The Assembly subsequently endorsed a petition to the EFCC and the ICPC, urging them to take up the matter.

The embattled former FCT Minister is equally embroiled in a case with the federal government over alleged unlawful interception of the phone communications of the National Security Adviser, Mr Nuhu Ribadu.

By Adedapo Adesanya

Credit rating agency, Fitch, has affirmed Nigeria’s Long-Term Foreign Currency Issuer Default Rating at ‘B’ with a stable outlook, while projecting depreciation for the Naira in the near term.

The decision underscores the country’s large economy, relatively developed and liquid domestic debt market, substantial oil and gas reserves, and ongoing improvements in monetary and exchange-rate policies.

This comes as the firm expects the country’s external reserves to decline marginally to $47 billion by the end of this year, while inflation is projected to hover around an average of 16 per cent.

The rating agency in its latest report on Nigeria said the rating is constrained by weak governance indicators, high hydrocarbon dependence, high inflation, security challenges and structurally low revenue relative to peers.

Fitch while stating that expects disinflation trend to continue said the risks however remain, “Inflation has moderated since April 2025 supported by policy reforms, but remains structurally high, at 15 per cent year-on-year in February 2026,” adding that, “We expect inflation to average about 16 per cent in 2026, from 23 per cent in 2024, but to remain well above the ‘B’ median of 5.5 per cent.”

Fitch also said that recent measures by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), including the removal of forex restrictions on the repatriation of oil export proceeds by international oil companies, should support further forex market normalisation, improve confidence and support relative naira stability after a 40 per cent depreciation in 2024.

It also noted that it expects “modest depreciation in the near term amid rising fiscal pressures and heightened external risks, while data quality concerns continue to weigh on policy credibility.”

“The CBN began easing monetary policy in September 2025, cutting the policy rate twice by a total of 100bp to 26.5 per cent after an extended tightening cycle. However, a looser fiscal stance ahead of the general election scheduled in January 2027 or further fuel price increases could reverse disinflation and prompt renewed monetary tightening.”

Noting that external reserves are expected to remain strong, it said gross reserves rose to $49.4 billion at end-March 2026, from $32 billion in mid-April 2024, and “we forecast a marginal decline to $47 billion at end-2026, reflecting higher spending pressures and external risks.

“However, we expect reserves to cover seven months of current external payments (CXP), well above the ‘B’ median of 4.3 months,” it said.

“Official disclosure on the composition of the CBN foreign-currency balance sheet remains limited, but the CBN has made substantial progress in unwinding foreign exchange swaps with local banks.

It estimates net reserves at $35 billion at end-2025 (5.5 months of CXP), up from about $4 billion at end-2023.