Adedapo Adesanya
By Adedapo Adesanya
The management of Dangote Refinery has said it would get its first cargo of crude in the next two weeks and then begin producing up to 370,000 barrels per day of diesel and jet fuel from October.
During the commissioning of the 650,000 barrels per day facility in May, the chairman of the company, Mr Aliko Dangote, said the first production would happen in July or August, but this has since been delayed.
Now, Dangote Group Executive Director, Mr Devakumar Edwin, told S&P Global Commodity Insights that, “Right now, I’m ready to receive crude,” adding that, “We are just waiting for the first vessel. And so as soon as it comes in, we can start.”
Mr Edwin, who was formerly heading Dangote Cement, is now overseeing the $19.5 billion refinery.
In the interview, he outlined a detailed production timeline, shed light on crude and product flows and laid out a litany of complications and delays to the project since it was first mooted in 2013.
He said the refinery, which was officially inaugurated by former President Muhammadu Buhari in May, will launch in phases, beginning with 350,000 – 370,000 barrels per day of diesel and jet fuel by October, when the crude distillation unit, sulfur block and hydrogen plant should be online.
He noted that by the end of November, specifically November 30, the refinery will start the phased ramp-up to 650,000 barrels per day.
He said the majority of this will be for petrol, which is the majority of Nigeria’s energy needs.
At its full planned capacity of 650,000 barrels per day, the refinery would make Nigeria self-sufficient in fuels and leave plenty more for export.
Due to a lack of refining capacity, Nigeria, which is Africa’s crude producer, imports all its refined products like petrol, diesel, and kerosene, among others. This move has had a ripple effect on Nigeria, especially in the area of foreign exchange.
Despite the promises, analysts are sceptical that the refinery will be able to meet its target. On its part, S&P Global analysts predict the refinery will not hit full operating capacity until mid-2025, according to a recent note, with further delays still possible.
Also, forecasts from S&P Global suggest Nigerian petrol production will exceed imports until the 2040s as a result of the refinery.
Meanwhile, prices have skyrocketed in Nigeria after President Bola Tinubu scrapped fuel subsidies in late May. It is expected that the new refinery will help moderate prices.
